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61. Network effects: Europe’s digital sovereignty in the Mediterranean

Author:
Matteo Colombo, Federico Solfrini, and Arturo Varvelli
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
Undersea internet cables are critical infrastructure as important as gas and oil pipelines, and are becoming a focus of growing geopolitical competition. Throughout the EU’s wider neighbourhood, geopolitics influences states’ decisions about who is allowed to build internet infrastructure and where they can do so. China and the US differ in their approaches, but both are racing ahead of the EU in their influence over internet infrastructure and the states that depend on it. The EU has the ambition and potential to become a sovereign digital power, but it lacks an all-encompassing strategy for the sector, in which individual governments are still the key players. The EU should set industry standards, help European telecommunications companies win business abroad, and protect internet infrastructure against hostile powers.
Topic:
Infrastructure, European Union, Geopolitics, Internet, and Digital Sovereignty
Political Geography:
China, Europe, United States of America, and Mediterranean

62. The EU’s military engagement in Central Mediterranean – Migrant crisis and arms embargo intertwined

Author:
Vojtěch Freitag
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:
In the new EU Monitor Vojtěch Freitag writes about the ongoing EU’s military mission in the Central Mediterranean Sea called EUNAVFOR MED Irini. The article attempts to overview, critically reflect and present recommendations for the issues connected to it. Notwithstanding EU’s efforts, Sophia had not achieved the prevention ofillicit arms flows. In fact, it could not possibly be successful as the sea is not the only entry point into the vast country. Failure of the embargo has been recently confirmed also by the UN expert panel on Libya, which claimed “total ineffectiveness”. However, the termination of the operation was caused by concerns deemed of greater importance to the member-states than the arms embargo –the question of rescuing and disembarking migrants, an aspect fitting into general EU’s immigration policy debate.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Migration, Military Affairs, and Refugee Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe and Mediterranean

63. The East Mediterranean Gas Forum: Regional Cooperation Amid Conflicting Interests

Author:
Mona Sukkarieh
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:
The discovery of sizable natural gas reserves off the coasts of Cyprus, Egypt and Israel over the past decade has revealed a promising resource potential in the Eastern Mediterranean and at the same time challenges in converting part of this potential into exploitable commodities. The discovery of gas resources in the Eastern Mediterranean added a new layer of complexity to a region already marred with decades-old conflicts. Amid increasingly competitive gas markets the East Mediterranean Gas Forum (EMGF) offers a platform to coordinate efforts among the various players in the region to lower costs and improve regional integration. The author of this paper starts by providing a quick overview of the EMGF, its objectives and internal working mechanisms, and its first efforts to assess– with the aim of improving– prospects for monetization. The author then explores the geopolitical dynamics with a focus on mapping perceptions of threats emanating from various regional actors, as these dynamics have played a role in the establishment and membership of the Forum. In the third and last part, the author focuses on bringing offshore Eastern Mediterranean gas to market.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, Natural Resources, and Gas
Political Geography:
Israel, Egypt, Cyprus, and Mediterranean

64. The role of Turkey in the Eastern Mediterranean conflict zone: A country transformed and a glimpse into the future

Author:
Thrasyvoulos Terry Stamatopoulos
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Major population movements have contributed to the transformation of the social and political landscape in Turkey. Political Islam and a resurgent nationalism are now among the primary factors in decision-shaping. National ambition is visibly shifting away from close association with/participation in the West, coloured by a visible revival of a particular view of its Ottoman past. The resulting domestic political dynamics are affecting the composition and traditional Western orientation of major state institutions, including the military. The above translate in a trend of distancing of the Turkish Republic from its partners of the last century and of difficult if not hostile relations with the US, the EU and some of its member-states, and other states in the region. The shift to a multi-polar world is contributing to this trend, fueling ambitions of the Government, but also of a significant part of the broader elite, for an increased role of Turkey as a regional power and on the global stage. The US and its allies, and the EU and its member-states must engage in a serious evaluation of Turkey’s transformation and its strategic orientation, which they have yet to do.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, European Union, Conflict, and Islamism
Political Geography:
Turkey, Greece, United States of America, and Mediterranean

65. New Turkey’s new diasporic constellations: The Gezi generation and beyond

Author:
Duygu Öztürk
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Turkey, like other countries from both East and West, is gradually withdrawing from international cooperation and seeking recourse to a new distinction between civilizations based on a synthesis of nationalism and nostalgic visions of history, memory, and religion. This transformation has been taking place under the rule of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) and his unofficial Islamist and nationalist coalition partners. The latest outflow constitutes a significant wave of migration from Turkey, the largest since the 1990s when displaced, politically-active Kurds left the country in record numbers due to human rights violations and criminalization. Furthermore, one can easily argue that Turkey is also losing some of its brightest people due to the socio-political pressure and shrinking economy. This new wave of migration is changing the profile of the Turkish diaspora in European countries. Recent migrants are not necessarily in solidarity with one another and may have competing interests. These dynamics are transferred to destination, where the interaction between the newcomers and the older diasporas cause new tensions. Moreover, some elements of the diaspora are supportive of the authoritarian measures, and there are widening trust issues among diaspora groups from different backgrounds. These new developments have turned the diasporic landscape into a highly contested space and a playing field for the transnationalization of Turkey’s domestic disputes. Overall, an analysis of the interviews shows that leavers who had to make an involuntary migration decision did so quickly, without a chance to evaluate consequences, best routes or alternatives. Others who left voluntarily had been considering the decision for a long time, and had made enquiries about which country or sector would be the most beneficial for them. Interviews with individuals who did not need to escape immediately left us with the impression that there is a larger community in Turkey today who may be planning to leave at the first opportunity; the lifestyle migration trends we are observing today could, in the long run, prove to be the tip of the iceberg. It is too early to comment on how the contemporary waves of migration out of Turkey will shape the exporting of Turkey’s domestic conflicts to its diaspora. However, the current situation can give us insights into the direction inter- and intra-group interactions will take in the near future.
Topic:
Migration, Diaspora, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and AKP
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean

66. Turkey’s African adventure: Taking stock of a new chapter in EU-Turkey relations

Author:
Ioannis N. Grigoriadis and Georgios Christos Kostaras
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Since its official adoption in 2005, Turkey’s “Africa Opening” (Afrika Açılımı) has become one of the most important elements in its foreign policy and resulted in the diversification of Turkey’s economic and political relations with sub-Saharan African states. While African-Turkish relations were broadly perceived as advanced by 2010, Ankara´s humanitarian involvement in Somalia the following year has been a catalyst for Turkey´s growing influence in the Horn of Africa and the Sahel. Emphasizing both the absence of a colonial past and its religious affinities, Turkey has further promoted its relations and influence across the continent. This is most evident in the Sahel, where the strategies of Ankara and Paris are at loggerheads. EU and Turkish interests in Africa are not necessarily irreconcilable; Africa, a continent whose economic and strategic significance is set to sharply rise, deserves more attention from Greece and the European Union.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Politics, Bilateral Relations, European Union, and Economy
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean

67. Turkey in Germany’s 2021 Elections: Political party manifestos and their views on Turkey

Author:
Ronald Meinardus
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Rarely has an election outcome in Germany been as uncertain as it is today. Berlin’s future policy towards Ankara, and not at least the related refugee issues, especially following the recent developments in Afghanistan, will be one of the topics future coalition partners will need to agree on. The election manifestos of the political parties provide an important source for analyzing the political views of the political actors. All parties criticize the dire situation of human rights and the rule of law in today’s Turkey. While CDU/CSU and the far-right AfD reject a Turkish membership in clear terms, the other parties are less outspoken in this point. Potentially the most consequential divergence as reflected in the electoral programs relates to Germany’s arms export policy and the EU Refugee Agreement of 2016. Unlike the other parties, both the Greens and “Die Linke” want to terminate the migration deal as well as the export of German arms to Turkey.
Topic:
Migration, Politics, Elections, and Political Parties
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Germany, and Mediterranean

68. Winds of change in the Eastern Mediterranean: Between hydrocarbons and renewable energy geopolitics

Author:
Ioannis N. Grigoriadis and Constantine Levoyannis
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Once a cradle of empires, civilizations and religions, the Mediterranean region that once dominated world trade today stands among the world regions with the lowest interconnectivity, trade and investment flows. Under these rather unpromising circumstances, the discovery of sizeable natural gas reserves under the seabed of the Eastern Mediterranean in the 2000s and early 2010s appeared as a golden opportunity for the emergence of the Mediterranean in the EU and global energy map, as well as for regional economic cooperation. Yet various missed opportunities and with gas consumption set to decline sharply post 2030 within the European Union, the Eastern Mediterranean natural gas reserves are no longer likely to emerge as gamechanger in EU energy geopolitics. There is another field where the Eastern Mediterranean can play a leading role in the transformation of European energy policy, giving a new dimension to Eastern Mediterranean energy geopolitics. A new, more dynamic and forward-looking energy and climate strategy is needed and with it, a need to evolve from the traditional definition of energy security. The European Green Deal has transformed the discussion on the monetization of natural resources with a negative climate footprint. While the European Union pledges to turn climate neutral by 2050, carbon dioxide emissions must be decisively cut, affecting the use of hydrocarbons including natural gas. This development brings forward a major opportunity for economic cooperation in the Mediterranean, focusing on the development of infrastructure for the production, storage and transport of renewable energy towards Europe. A robust political response is necessary to address climate change to keep our planet viable. The European Green Deal emerges as a new historic cooperation opportunity for a region with lots of regional conflicts as well as with a lot of unrealized potential.
Topic:
Climate Change, European Union, Geopolitics, Renewable Energy, and Hydrocarbons
Political Geography:
Mediterranean

69. Energy: Factor of Stability or Conflict in the Eastern Mediterranean?

Author:
Marika Karagianni
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Security of critical economic and energy infrastructure has become a key element in the agenda of both the EU and NATO. The global balance between energy producers and energy importers needs also to be respected in order to secure the smooth operation of global economy and trade. Global energy organizations like OPEC and GAS OPEC see to that. Constructive, multilateral energy diplomacy via the reinforcement of the EMGF (East Med Gas Forum) is considered as the optimum solution to any destabilizing factor in the region. The Eastern Mediterranean has the potential to become a gas supply source for the EU in the future, alternatively to Russia, which is why it has been identified by Brussels as a future gas diversification source. The official strategy of Cairo is to develop indigenous natural gas resources, with the double aim to increase gas production rates and to export significant amounts to Europe in the immediate future. Egypt is bound to lead gas exports of the Eastern Mediterranean countries and diversification for Europe, through its LNG terminals. The East Med pipeline could follow later on.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Gas, Political stability, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, North Africa, Egypt, and Mediterranean

70. Economic Linkages across the Mediterranean: Trends on trade, investments and energy

Author:
Panagiota Manoli
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
The Mediterranean is of multifaceted importance for the global economy, as it is one of the most highly valued seas globally. However, the region’s growth and economic integration path has often been obstructed by political upheavals and conflicts. This paper focuses on key features of the current regional dynamics in trade, investments and energy as sources of growth in the Mediterranean, with a view to assessing where the region stands today. The Mediterranean’s regional economic linkages manifest two dominant features: on the one hand, there is the marked heterogeneity of the countries’ performance in foreign trade, investment flows and energy (oil and gas) potential; on the other hand, there is the strong north-south element that shapes all intra-regional flows. These features indicate that, despite weak integration at a regional level, opportunities exist to strengthen intra-regional links as the Mediterranean further integrates into the global economy and benefits from long-standing multilateral and cooperative structures across the region.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Global Political Economy, Investment, and Trade
Political Geography:
Mediterranean