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71. A Mediterranean Duel: Erdogan, Sisi and the Fate of Egyptian-Turkish Relations

Author:
Nick Danforth
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Current tensions between Egypt and Turkey emerged in the wake of Egypt’s 2013 coup. They reflect a deep divide between General Sisi’s hostility toward the Muslim Brotherhood and President Erdogan’s support for it. Yet this rivalry has now become exacerbated by new geopolitical fault lines in the Middle East and Eastern Mediterranean, which increasingly pit Turkey against a coalition of regional actors including not just Egypt but also Greece, Cyprus, Israel, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. As a result of these multiple, intersecting factors, Egyptian-Turkish rapprochement will prove difficult for the foreseeable future.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Muslim Brotherhood, and Abdel Fattah el-Sisi
Political Geography:
Turkey, North Africa, Egypt, and Mediterranean

72. ΕU-Turkey Relations and the Migration Challenge: What is the Way Forward?

Author:
Panayotis Tsakonas
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Although disruption remains the norm in Turkey’s behavior, the EU should stand firm in developing a strategy of “balancing engagement” to keep Turkey anchored in the broader European and transatlantic framework. The Customs Union is an important instrument at the EU’s disposal for concluding an agreement with Turkey and negotiations can lead to an agreement that would balance European and Turkish interests. Moreover, a European strategy towards Turkey should address not only the immediate challenge of Turkey’s assertive behavior in the Eastern Mediterranean, but also the future of EU-Turkey relations along with the pressing migration challenge. An updated EU-Turkey Statement should rectify certain provisions of the current Statement on migration regarding Greece as well as Turkey’s intention to exploit migrants and refugees. Greece is in favor of a “rules-based” relationship between the European Union and Turkey. It could be an active contributor to the advancement of the EU strategy of “balancing engagement” by co-shaping Turkey’s new relationship with the EU.
Topic:
Migration, Bilateral Relations, and European Union
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean

73. Greece’s Rise as a Trans-Mediterranean Power: Greece’s Eastern Mediterranean strategic shift to Europe-to-Africa and Europe-to-Middle East connectivity

Author:
Michaël Tanchum
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Greece stands at the threshold of a strategic shift that could see the Hellenic Republic become Europe’s geopolitical gatekeeper of the emerging East Africa-to-Europe and Middle East-to-Europe commercial corridors. Whether Greece becomes a European leader in trans-Mediterranean connectivity depends on Athens’ ability to develop its own position in East Africa-to-Europe and Middle East-to-Europe manufacturing value chains. Greece’s advancing green energy, innovation economy offers promising avenues to engage Egypt, Israel, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia in joint ventures that will transform Greece into a cutting-edge trans-Mediterranean actor. Greece’s new trans-Mediterranean profile is a strategic shift that will require the EU system to adjust its perception of Greece and incentivize closer coordination between Greece and other member states to facilitate joint venture investments in the two corridors. In the absence of such coordination, Athens will continue to deepen its relations with Egypt, Israel, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia while engaging with select EU member states. The extent to which Greece succeeds at industrial value chain integration will determine its role in the emerging trans-regional commercial architecture, and with it, Greece’s strategic standing within the European Union and the MENA region.
Topic:
European Union, Geopolitics, Trade, and Value Chains
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Middle East, Greece, and Mediterranean

74. Turkish drones, Greek challenges

Author:
Antonis Kamaras
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
This paper analyses the evolution of Turkey’s capacity to conduct drone-led warfare, an evolution driven by its assertive national security and foreign policy. It connects this feature of Turkey’s war-fighting capability to the debate on the impact drones have on the modern battlefield and on conflictual interstate relations. The paper attributes the underdevelopment of Greece’s drone and counter-drone capacity to the country’s fiscal crisis and to the civilian leadership’s unwillingness to make use of Greece’s alliances, geographical position and R&D ecosystem to develop such capacities. The analysis identifies the factors and processes that can accelerate the speed at which the Greek armed forces ready themselves to meet the evolving challenges—including drones—posed by their assertive neighbour.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, National Security, Drones, and Alliance
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Greece, and Mediterranean

75. Turkey’s Post-2016 Foreign Policy Drivers: Militarisation, Islam, Civilisation and Power

Author:
Ahmet Öztürk
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Dramatic political changes in Turkey are not limited to the degradation of state institutions or the democratic backsliding. Turkey is experiencing a substantial change in foreign policy as well. In this context, this study argues that new Turkey’s new foreign policy understanding rests on four inter-related parameters that pertain to the priorities of the country’s ruling coalition: militarisation, Islam, civilisation and power.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Islam, Civilization, and Militarization
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean

76. Turkey and the West: A Hostile Dance

Author:
Nick Danforth
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Tensions between Turkey and the West have steadily worsened over the past five years, but analysts are still no closer to predicting what this means for the future. Many assume that longstanding strategic and economic ties will ultimately force both sides to muddle through and preserve their relationship, while others anticipate that pressure will build to the point where a decisive break becomes inevitable. This paper examines a number of different scenarios that have been put forward for Turkey’s relations with the US and EU, then tries to navigate between the most plausible among them to predict how this hostile dance might progress.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, and European Union
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Middle East, United States of America, and Mediterranean

77. Revisiting and going beyond the EU-Turkey migration agreement of 2016: an opportunity for Greece to overcome being just “Europe’s aspis”

Author:
Kemal Kirisçi
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
In contrast to early last year, marked by a “border crisis” that erupted after the Turkish President finally put into action his long-standing threat to “open the border” for Syrian refugees, the year 2021 had a more promising start. The intense tensions in the Aegean Sea and the Eastern Mediterranean that followed the “border crisis” appear to be subsiding. The European Council statement of March 25 offers a possible framework for dialogue and diplomacy to take over from what was an annus horribilis in Greek-Turkish and EU-Turkish relations. Within this framework, room is also made for revisiting the EU-Turkey statement adopted in March 2016 to manage the aftermath of the European migration crisis that had seen a mass displacement of refugees and migrants primarily from Turkey to Greece and on to Europe. The statement has had many opponents and its implementation has faced multiple grievances and recriminations from both sides. Addressing and overcoming these challenges will call for extensive diplomatic effort, good will and take considerable time. In the interim, however, the emerging positive climate offers the possibility to explore expanding cooperation in a relatively successful but inadequately appreciated part of the EU-Turkey statement known as the Facility for Refugees in Turkey (FRIT). FRIT has been instrumental in supporting Syrian and other refugees in Turkey. It has been an important manifestation of burden-sharing with Turkey and has benefitted refugees in concrete terms. Advancing cooperation in this area would also help contribute to mutual confidence building and have a positive spill over into other more complicated issue areas in the migration domain and broader bilateral relations.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Migration, Treaties and Agreements, and Refugees
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Greece, and Mediterranean

78. Turkey: A Problem Partner?

Author:
ELIAMEP
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
It was around the mid-2000s when Turkey—if only for a short period of time—promulgated the idea of “zero problems with neighbours”. At the time, Turkey was seeking positive reforms in all aspects of public life and a cooperative future with neighbouring countries based on mutual understanding and converging interests. Furthermore, Turkey imagined itself as a bridge between, not as a wall separating and isolating, different regions. Unfortunately, those days are long gone. For almost a decade now, Turkey has been reactionary in its treatment of its own citizens and solipsistic with regard to its neighbours. Democratic backsliding and human rights abuses inside Turkey have become the norm, while militarisation and unilateralism increasingly characterise its foreign policy choices. Its government actions have begun to resemble those of a rogue state. This report seeks neither to explain the intricacies of Erdoğan’s problematic behaviour towards its own people and the rest of the world, nor to denigrate Turkey’s standing. Rather, it aims to raise the alarm about the slippery slope Turkey finds itself on, hopefully well before his governance causes irreparable damage to the region. The report starts by presenting general aspects of Turkey’s relationship with international stakeholders, such as the EU and the US. It proceeds by mapping out internal developments that exemplify strong tendencies of democratic backsliding and human rights abuses. The third part focuses on regional aspects of Turkey’s foreign policy behaviour, starting with the most severe cases that epitomize the militarisation of its foreign policy and violations of international law. It concludes with various cases of political differences between Turkey and states on its periphery, which, combined with the other more severe cases described, demonstrate how Turkey’s foreign policy expectations of ‘zero problems with neighbours’ have turned into a ‘zero neighbours’ reality.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Human Rights, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and Domestic Policy
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean

79. Ahead of the five-party meeting: Convergences and bridgeable differences towards the reunification of Cyprus

Author:
George Kalpadakis
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
The prospect of achieving a bizonal, bicommunal federal solution to the Cyprus problem was dealt a blow in the summer of 2017 when the unification talks between the two sides were suspended. The deterioration of the climate since then and the concomitant danger of abandoning the UN framework for a solution amid Turkey’s and the T/C side’s apparent insistence on a two-state solution, underscores the necessity to sketch out the convergences that have reportedly been achieved as well as the most significant issues on which the divergences appear to be bridgeable. Ahead of the upcoming informal five-party meeting on the Cyprus issue and the challenge of “rebooting” Crans Montana, this paper briefly outlines these issues based on a recently released UN document, indicating that they form an integral part of the elusive signposts towards a final settlement. Moreover, it refers to a number of ongoing and new civil society initiatives in support of peace and reunification.
Topic:
United Nations, Negotiation, Peace, Reconciliation, and Reunification
Political Geography:
Turkey, Greece, Cyprus, and Mediterranean

80. “The Times They Are A-Changin'”? – Three Turkish Opposition Parties

Author:
Evangelos Areteos
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
While the main focus of international media and academics is oriented towards Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the Justice and Development Party (AKP), together with their nationalist allies, the Turkish opposition is giving growing signs of deep changes and transformations. Obliged to operate within a “competitive authoritarian” environment, the three biggest parties of the opposition, namely the Republican People’s Party (Cumhuriyet Halk Partisi-CHP), the Good Party (İYİ Parti) and the Democracy and Progress Party (Demokrasi ve Atılım Partisi-DEVA) are in a multidimensional process of transformation and adaptation to the emerging needs and expectations of a growing part of the Turkish society. By exploring new ways to circumvent polarization that brings them closer to the vibrant society, and by searching for new interpretations of nationalism that open new perspectives of inclusiveness, these three opposition parties have the potential to emerge not only as significant political alternatives but also as a reflection of societal change.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Domestic Politics, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Political Parties, AKP, and Polarization
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean