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101. From Tectonic Shifts to Winds of Change in North Africa and the Middle East: Europe’s Role

Author:
Nathalie Tocci, Riccardo Alcaro, Francesca Caruso, Silvia Colombo, Dario Cristiani, Andrea Dessì, Flavio Fusco, and Daniela Huber
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Winds of change are blowing in North Africa and the Middle East. They originate from Washington, where the new Biden administration is expected to abandon its predecessor’s zero-sum, erratic approach and take steps towards supporting regional balances and cooperation. Effects are visible especially in the Gulf, with the US pondering its options to re-activate nuclear diplomacy with Iran and Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates grudgingly agreeing to put their feud with Qatar on ice. One way or another, these winds of change are working their way through the Levant, the Eastern Mediterranean and Libya. Admittedly, they are still feeble and can easily fade out like a morning breeze. Were that to happen, Europeans would be amongst the most affected – aside, of course, from regional populations themselves. It is now high time for the EU and its member states to leave the backseat they have (un)comfortably been sitting in for years, seize the opportunity of a cooperative US administration and work to play a more proactive role in North Africa and the Middle East commensurate with their considerable financial, diplomatic and military resources.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Politics, European Union, and Institutions
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, North Africa, United States of America, Mediterranean, and Gulf Nations

102. Diaspora Mobilisation and the Arab Uprisings: Opportunities and Limits of the "Back Home Effect"

Author:
Silvia Colombo and Giulia Gozzini
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Arab emigration has been growing rapidly in recent years. Approximately 26 million citizens from Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries lived abroad in mid-2020. Equivalent to 10 per cent of the international migrant stock, this figure accounts for about 6 per cent of the total population of the region, a proportion that is twice as high as the world average. Just over half – or 53 per cent – of these migrants remain in the MENA, mostly in the Arabian Peninsula, whereas Europe and North America stand out as the primary destination for the remaining percentage of MENA diasporas. Most of the literature considers diasporas as examples of transnational communities, meaning that they belong to two or more societies at the same time and display multiple forms of identification.[4] In the age of globalisation, identity maintenance has been helped by cheap air travels (Covid-permitting) and phone calls, the Internet and satellite television.[5] These factors have also facilitated the emergence of diasporas as important players at the domestic political level in origin countries (the so-called “back home effect”), through return migration, external voting, political mobilisation and remittances.[6] Nevertheless, systematic analysis of diaspora interactions with domestic politics in the MENA is lacking, apart from the cases of the Palestinian and Kurdish diasporas.
Topic:
Migration, Authoritarianism, and Domestic Policy
Political Geography:
Middle East, North Africa, and Mediterranean

103. Mediterranean trends 2030/2050. A prospective approach to the Southern neighbourhood

Author:
Itxaso Dominguez de Olazabal and Alfonso Casani
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Fundación Alternativas
Abstract:
Launched a quarter of a century ago, the Barcelona Process began a process of reflection and unification regarding Spanish and European Union (EU) policies towards the Mediterranean. However, this has not always translated into coherent, prudent, and timely policies given the changing structural conditions that occurred in the region, such as the 2010/2011 anti-authoritarian revolts. A more anticipatory approach needs to be applied to policy-making, re-examining both the vision and policies. This document undertakes an in-depth foresight analysis of the Southern Neighbourhood, with a view to the medium- and long-term horizons of 2030 and 2050 respectively. Consequently, it aims to contribute towards developing long-term, proactive strategies both nationally and within Europe, which commit to developing coherent and responsible policies that could help the region’s societies develop inclusively, sustainably, and democratically. As such, this exercise aspires to identify the paths, realities, and phenomena that can lead to somewhat sustainable and friendly scenarios for the affected populations in the future. The work identifies of these scenarios. This involves reporting six megatrends in the nine dynamics. Based on available data and knowledge gleaned from interviews, they can define the evolution and range of possible directions in which the Southern Neighbourhood countries are heading. This document profiles and compares two of them: one positive, characterised by the appeasement of social conflicts, the adoption of good governance practices, and greater regional stability; and a second scenario that will bear witness to a worsening of political, social, and economic issues and conflicts, within a context marked by the stiffening of authoritarian trends and a deepening of social inequalities. The difference between each scenario resides in the will of Southern Neighbourhood countries to adopt measures aimed at better governance and the adoption of more multilateral action frameworks that favour cooperation. Both scenarios offer a set of opportunities, applicable mainly to the Southern Neighbourhood countries, with Spain and the EU eventually joining them on the process. These opportunities point to areas of particular importance in order to achieve a sustainable future for the region’s societies.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, European Union, Strategic Stability, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
Europe, Spain, and Mediterranean

104. Greece-Israel Relations Help Stabilize the Eastern Mediterranean

Author:
Eran Lerman
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Amidst global turmoil, with Ankara seeking to lure away key regional players, the Greece-Israel partnership is a pillar of effective regional strategy.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Political stability, Strategic Stability, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, Israel, Greece, and Mediterranean

105. Biden’s Eastern Mediterranean Agenda

Author:
Eran Lerman
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Establishing coherent US policy regarding brewing conflict in the eastern Mediterranean should be a Biden administration priority. By restraining Erdogan’s ambitions, the US can add to stability and rebuild bridges with key European players and traditional US allies. The governments of Israel and Greece, in consultation with Egypt, should work together to advance this perspective in Washington.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Leadership, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Greece, North America, United States of America, and Mediterranean

106. From the Barcelona Process to the Programme for the Mediterranean, a fragile partnership with the Pierre MIREL European Union

Author:
Pierre Mirel
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
In Barcelona in 1995, the European Union and its southern partners[1] committed to making the Mediterranean basin an area of dialogue, exchange and cooperation, ensuring “peace, stability and prosperity.” Twenty-five years later, the southern shore of the Mediterranean faces immense challenges: governance, corruption, migration, terrorism, security, environment and climate, in addition to conflicts, geopolitical competition and external interference. This is the bitter assessment of the Commission and the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Vice-President of the European Commission[2] in their Communication on a new programme for the Mediterranean. The civil wars in Algeria, Lebanon, Syria and Libya cannot, of course, be used to describe the EU's policy since 1995 as a failure. This would imply that the EU's policy has played a role that was not possible given the underlying forces at play in these regions. However, this policy has not lived up to the hopes it first raised. The Union has taken a succession of initiatives over the past twenty-five years, but the 'partnerships', 'privileged status' and other 'strategic agreements' have not been able to mask the shortcomings and lack of financial resources. Will the new programme, presented as 'ambitious and innovative', be able to respond to the challenges set?
Topic:
European Union, Partnerships, Arab Spring, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, and Mediterranean

107. Israel in the Mediterranean: Policy Questions and Answers

Author:
Mitvim
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:
This paper presents insights and recommendations from a policy workshop of the “Israel in the Mediterranean” group led by the Mitvim Institute, the Hebrew University’s Leonard Davis Institute for International Relations and Haifa University’s National Security Studies Center. The workshop, convened on 19 November 2020, focused on key diplomatic, economic, energetic, environmental and identity issues that Israel faces in the Mediterranean. The document does not necessarily reflect agreement by all participants.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Environment, Economy, Regional Integration, and Identity
Political Geography:
Israel, Palestine, and Mediterranean

108. Supercharged: The EuroAsia Interconnector and Israel’s Pursuit of Energy Interdependence

Author:
Gabriel Mitchell
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:
Contemporary analysis of Eastern Mediterranean geopolitics tends to focus on the discovery of offshore hydrocarbons, and how a desire to maximize commercial profits has spurred a realignment of regional interests. There is similar emphasis on how this realignment pushed some Eastern Mediterranean states into conflict with one another over maritime boundaries and drilling rights. But while natural gas pipelines may dominate political and analytical discourse, there are other infrastructure projects that deserve attention and shed further light on the region’s evolution and Israel’s role in this transitionary period. One example to support this claim is the EuroAsia Interconnector, an ambitious infrastructure project that intends to connect the European electrical grid via undersea cable from Greece to Cyprus, and Israel. Few in Israel are familiar with the interconnector. Unlike the much-publicized EastMed pipeline, the interconnector garners little attention. Ironically, there is a greater chance that the interconnector – whose cable would run along a similar route as the EastMed pipeline – will successfully link Israel and Europe in the Eastern Mediterranean, and not the more recognizable natural gas project.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, Geopolitics, and Gas
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, Israel, Asia, Palestine, and Mediterranean

109. One Step Towards Reconciliation In Cyprus: Perceptions of the ‘Other’ for the Families of Missing Persons

Author:
Hasibe Şahoğlu
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:
Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:
By the end of the inter-ethnic conflict in 1974, there were over 2000 people who were reported as missing in Cyprus. Since 2005, with the efforts of the Committee of Missing Persons (CMP), 870 remains of the missing persons have been discovered, exhumed and returned back to their families. Although there exist several studies focusing on disappearances during violent conflicts, there is a dearth of academic research that investigates the reconciliation at the grassroots level, particularly for the families of the missing persons. The aims of this paper are twofold. Utilizing twenty two in-depth interviews with the families of Greek and Turkish Cypriots who experienced ‘ambiguous losses’ in the 1963 and 1974 conflicts in Cyprus, the paper firstly aims at improving the understandings of how disappearances shape the perceptions of ‘the other’ group in a post-conflict society. Secondly, the paper also aims to investigate the potential role of CMP on trust building and reconciliation efforts in Cyprus. The paper reveals that there is a subtle step forward for reconciliation among the families of missing persons, which were clear in the narratives of the families who started showing empathy towards the other. While both Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots showed very little hatred towards each other and noted that there were no problems at the individual level, they continued to blame the politicians and radical groups for their losses. The opening of borders and the contributions of the Committee of Missing Persons (CMP) in reducing the pain of relatives and helping to bond relations in line with trust building and reconciliation efforts were also acknowledged by both sides.
Topic:
Conflict, Disappearance, Reconciliation, and Missing Persons
Political Geography:
Cyprus and Mediterranean

110. From the Barcelona Process to the New Agenda for the Mediterranean: In Search of an Appropriate Model of Cooperation/Del Proceso de Barcelona a la nueva agenda para el Mediterráneo: En busca de un modelo apropiado de cooperación

Author:
Antonio Blanc and Eimys Ortíz
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
This article analyses the Euro-Mediterranean relations in its twenty-fifth anniversary since the launch of the Barcelona Process in 1995 until its last review, the New Mediterranean Agenda. The EuroMediterranean policy is characterised by the search for an appropriate cooperation model and due to that fact, it has gone through different stages without achieving tangible results. The successive initiatives, the European Neighbourhood Policy and the Union for the Mediterranean, are mainly based on internal events that required updating their relationship with the region, including parameters that were difficult to reach as well. After examining the different policies, the article tries to explain whether the New Agendal will continue to make a contribution to its decline or can reactivate the common vision for a stable, secure and prosperous Mediterranean./El presente artículo analiza las relaciones euro-mediterráneas en los veinticinco años transcurridos desde el lanzamiento del Proceso de Barcelona en 1995 hasta su última revisión, la Nueva Agenda Mediterránea. La política euro-mediterránea se caracteriza por la búsqueda de un modelo apropiado de cooperación que ha pasado por distintas etapas desde la Conferencia de Barcelona sin lograr resultados tangibles. Las sucesivas iniciativas, la Política Europea de Vecindad y la Unión por el Mediterráneo, parten principalmente de acontecimientos internos que exigen actualizar su relación con la región, así como de parámetros de difícil alcance. Tras examinar las distintas políticas, el trabajo aborda si la Nueva Agenda continuará incurriendo en el declive o puede reactivar la visión común de un Mediterráneo estable, seguro y próspero.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe and Mediterranean