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71. Multilateral Damage: The impact of EU migration policies on central Saharan routes

Author:
Jérôme Tubiana, Clotilde Warin, and Gaffar Mohammud Saeneen
Publication Date:
09-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
This online report studies the effects of EU migration policies and the externalisation of EU border control on Saharan migration routes and on practices in the border regions connecting Niger, Chad, Sudan and Libya. Authors Jérôme Tubiana, Clotilde Warin and Gaffar Mohammud Saeneen find that, in response to the obstacles and opportunities that border externalisation policies present for migrants, migration routes diversify and move to other countries. Beyond the fact that migration is a transnational phenomenon not linked to one particular route or itinerary, this continuous moving of routes is made possible by cross-border Saharan trade and trafficking networks that have put in place the necessary logistics to facilitate migration and which often fall outside government control. Pushed by EU efforts to curtail migration, states such as Niger, Chad and Sudan have shored up border patrols and anti-smuggling operations in the border regions under study here. The report shows that this has been done in a manner that is often not conducive to stability in the region and which contributes to the ‘militia-isation’ – the growing power of militias whose presence undermines the state – of the countries at issue.
Topic:
Migration, Border Control, European Union, and Trafficking
Political Geography:
Sudan, Libya, Chad, Niger, Sahara, and Africa

72. Caught in the middle: A human rights and peace-building approach to migration governance in the Sahel

Author:
Fransje Molenaar, Jérôme Tubiana, and Clotilde Warin
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
In recent years, the Sahel region has attracted the attention of European policy makers aiming to prevent Europe-bound irregular migrants from reaching the Libyan coastline. Policies implemented under this approach propose to address the root causes of irregular migration from non-EU countries, such as through support for socio-economic development of countries of origin, the dismantling of smuggling and trafficking networks, and the definition of actions for the better application of return policies. Does this approach to mixed migration governance take sufficient stock of the larger development and stability contexts within which irregular migration and human smuggling takes place? Does migration governance suffciently address the human rights consequences and destabilising effects that migratory movements and the policies that address them may have? And how could human rights and peace-building principles – that is, processes and measures that contribute to a society’s capacity to address conflict in a constructive manner – be incorporated to achieve more holistic and conflict-sensitive migration governance? In their report authors Fransje Molenaar, Jérôme Tubiana and Clotilde Warin address these issues and find that the implementation of migration policies in the Sahel has contributed to an increase in human rights abuses and risks for migrants and refugees, as well as rises in human trafficking and forced labour. They argue that national and sub-national institutions and capacities be supported to take the lead in comprehensive and sustainable migration management and migrant protection presenting the following recommendations: Contribute to the development of (sub)national migrant protection frameworks and structures; Ensure that migration governance benefits local communities and addresses the (perceived) negative effects of migration on host communities; Strengthen community security and ensure that securitised migration policies do not harm local communities. In their conclusion, the authors also offer concrete pointers to implement these recommendations.
Topic:
Human Rights, Migration, Governance, Trafficking, and Peace
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Libya, and Sahel

73. Spotlight on Africa | What Next for Libya?

Author:
Michael Asiedu
Publication Date:
06-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center
Abstract:
2017 could be described by Libyans and many in the international community as a year of political stagnation with no vital accomplishment in terms of the political impasse and deadlock in postGaddafi Libya (El-Gamaty, 2018), a scenario that has seen the establishment of rival governments and the proliferation of militias among certain factions embroiled in the Libyan conflict. A ray of hope has however appeared in the form of renewed efforts to get the country back to full functionality. It is in this vain that on 29 May, French President Emmanuel Macron hosted leaders of rival Libyan factions together with diplomats from over 20 countries (including UN Special Envoy for Libya Ghassan Salame, French Foreign Affairs Minister Le Drian, Congo President Denis Sassou Nguesso) in Paris in attempt to broker a peace deal and a pathway to elections in Libya.
Topic:
Elections, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:
Africa and Libya

74. January 2018 Issue

Author:
Fernando Reinares, Carola Garcia-Calvo, Paul Cruickshank, Michael Knights, Matther Levitt, Matthew Dupee, and Anouar Boukhars
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
During the course of nine hours in August 2017, a terrorist cell carried out two vehicle-ramming attacks in Catalonia, with the first striking pedestrians on the famous Las Ramblas promenade in the heart of Barcelona. In our cover article, Fernando Reinares and Carola García-Calvo draw on judicial documents and interviews with investigators to provide the inside story of the worst terrorist attack in Spain since the 2004 Madrid bombings. Their account reveals the 10-man cell of ‘homegrown’ radicals, led by an extremist Moroccan cleric in the town of Ripoll, had initially planned to carry out vehicle bomb attacks in Barcelona and possibly Paris, but changed and accelerated their plans after they accidentally blew up their bomb factory where they were manufacturing TATP. While it is still not clear whether the cell had any contact with the Islamic State, the authors reveal that the network behind the November 2015 Paris attacks was also plotting to launch a similar attack in Barcelona that year. This month’s interview feature is with Nicholas Rasmussen, who retired as the head of the U.S. National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC) at the end of 2017. Michael Knights and Matthew Levitt draw on interviews with Bahraini security officials to outline how Shi`a militant cells in the country have evolved from easily detectible groups of amateurs to small cells of attackers with overseas training and combat experience and the ability to mount effective IED attacks. Matthew DuPée looks at the threat to the Taliban from other insurgent groups. Anouar Boukhars examines the potential jihadi windfall from the militarization of Tunisia’s border region with Libya. This issue is the first to be launched on the Combating Terrorism Center’s redesigned website, which is also being unveiled. The new, easy-to-search, interactive interface showcases the important scholarship contained in CTC Sentinel over the past decade, as well as all the research published by the Combating Terrorism Center since its founding almost 15 years ago.
Topic:
Terrorism, Insurgency, Counter-terrorism, Violence, Shia, and Jihad
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Libya, Spain, North Africa, Bahrain, Tunisia, and Barcelona

75. June/July 2018 Issue

Author:
Kirsten E. Schulze, Brian Dodwell, Dakota Foster, Daniel Milton, David Sterman, and Robin Simcox
Publication Date:
07-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
This summer marks the end of an era for us. Lieutenant Colonel Bryan Price, the Combating Terrorism Center’s longest-serving director, is retiring after 20 years of service in the Army, the last six at the helm of the CTC. During that time, he was a tireless champion for the CTC and its staff and cemented its status as one of the leading research institutions in the terrorism studies field. In a conversation with Brian Dodwell, who is taking over as director, LTC Price reflects on his service at the CTC and the essential need for rigorous research to understand the evolving threat landscape. There is concern that Islamic State-linked terror is on the rise in Southeast Asia. On Sunday, May 13, 2018, three churches in Surabaya, Indonesia, were targeted by suicide bombers comprising one single family of six. The following day, a family of five rode two motorbikes to the entrance of the city’s police headquarters where they blew themselves up. The attacks saw the confluence of several trends in jihadi terrorist plotting—an increased reliance on family networks and an increased embrace of women and children in combat roles. In our cover article, Kirsten Schulze outlines the evolving threat from pro-Islamic State militants in Southeast Asia’s most populous country. Dakota Foster and Daniel Milton build on the the CTC’s previous analysis on the personnel records of just over 4,100 Islamic State foreign fighters to focus on what the records reveal about the smaller subset of 267 children. David Sterman also analyzes the Islamic State’s personnel records to compare and contrast the profile of recruits with previous experience in Libya and Afghanistan. Robin Simcox documents an alleged terrorist conspiracy by an all-female cell guided by an Islamic State cybercoach to plot attacks in the Paris area in 2016.
Topic:
Terrorism, Children, Counter-terrorism, Women, Islamic State, Jihad, Foreign Fighters, and Child Soldiers
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Europe, South Asia, Indonesia, France, Libya, North Africa, and Southeast Asia

76. Libya’s Terrorism Challenge: Assessing the Salafi-Jihadi Threat

Author:
Lydia Sizer
Publication Date:
10-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
Salafi-jihadis have maintained an active presence in Libya due to a mix of push and pull factors. Historic participation in such groups, declining standards of living, the historical marginalization of minorities, and a pervasive sense of victimhood have all made Libya a ripe jihadi recruiting ground. Many Salafi-jihadis offer the status, salary, and services that the fractured state cannot provide. These movements can be diminished through investments like educational programs, aid to war-torn regions, demilitarization programs, and improved intelligence sharing by border officials in Libya’s neighboring states. However, until the political crisis that has plagued Libya for over three years ends, there is little Libya’s international partners can do to help confront these movements. And as long as the crisis continues, civil unrest will persist and institutions will remain weak. Such a scenario would provide the requisite chaos for the present Salahi-jihadi movements to flourish.
Topic:
Terrorism, Violent Extremism, Conflict, and Jihad
Political Geography:
Middle East, Libya, and North Africa

77. Wartime Economies in the Middle East A Look into Libya, Syria and Iraq

Author:
Tim Eaton, Lina Khatib, Renad Mansour, and Paul Salem
Publication Date:
10-2017
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
The Middle East Institute (MEI) hosted Chatham House experts Tim Eaton, Lina Khatib, and Renad Mansour for a discussion on the collapse of central authority and its economic impacts across states in the Middle East and North Africa. MEI senior vice president for policy analysis, research, and programs Paul Salem moderated. The panel explored the development of the war economies of Syria, Libya, and Iraq, examined the commonalities and differences in the three cases, and discussed the challenges of combating the economic power of armed insurgents.
Topic:
War, Non State Actors, Economy, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, Libya, and Syria

78. How Can the International Community Promote Libya's Stability and Security?

Author:
Wafa Bughaighis, Ben Fishman, Nigel Lea, Jason Pack, and Jonathan Winer
Publication Date:
10-2017
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
Libya occupies a sensitive position for the security of Arab and European neighbors, including many U.S. allies, and in managing the region’s destabilizing migration flows. The country’s fractious politics and armed insurgencies are depriving Libyans of security, basic services, and economic stability, and leave the country vulnerable to jihadi terrorism. The United Nations has proposed a road map for rethinking the embattled government of national accord and binding Libya’s rival parliaments and militia commander Khalifa Haftar into negotiation of a consensus path forward. The Middle East Institute (MEI) presented a two-panel symposium to examine opportunities for the United States and international community to advance Libya's security and mobilize to meet the humanitarian challenges. This is the first of the two panels.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Human Rights, Migration, United Nations, Conflict, and Negotiation
Political Geography:
Middle East, Libya, and North Africa

79. Election Forensics Toolkit and Guide

Author:
Allen Hicken and Walter Mebane
Publication Date:
07-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute of International Education
Abstract:
There is an acute need for methods of detecting and investigating fraud in elections, because the consequences of electoral fraud are grave for democratic stability and quality. When the electoral process is compromised by fraud, intimidation, or even violence, elections can become corrosive and destabilizing—sapping support for democratic institutions; inflaming suspicion; and stimulating demand for extra-constitutional means of pursuing political agendas, including violence. Accurate information about irregularities can help separate false accusations from evidence of electoral malfeasance. Accurate information about the scope of irregularities can also provide a better gauge of election quality. Finally, accurate information about the geographic location of malfeasance—the locations where irregularities occurred and how they cluster—can allow election monitors and pro-democracy organizations to focus attention and resources more efficiently and to substantiate their assessments of electoral quality. Election forensics is an emerging field in which scholars use a diverse set of statistical tools—including techniques similar to those developed to detect financial fraud—to analyze numerical electoral data and detect where patterns deviate from those that should occur naturally, following demonstrated mathematical principles. Numbers that humans have manipulated present patterns that are unlikely to occur if produced by a natural process—such as free and fair elections or normal commercial transactions. These deviations suggest either that the numbers were intentionally altered or that other factors—such as a range of normal strategic voting practices—influenced the electoral results. The greater the number of statistical tests that identify patterns that deviate from what is expected to naturally occur, the more likely that the deviation results from fraud rather than legal strategic voting. Through a Research and Innovation Grant funded by USAID’s Center of Excellence on Democracy, Human Rights, and Governance under the Democracy Fellows and Grants Program, a research team from the University of Michigan, led by Professors Walter Mebane and Allen Hicken, built an innovative online tool, the Election Forensics Toolkit, that allows researchers and practitioners to conduct complex statistical analysis on detailed, localized data produced through the electoral process. The Election Forensics Toolkit presents results in a variety of ways—including detailed country maps showing “hot spots” of potential fraud—that allow practitioners not only to see where electoral fraud may have occurred but also the probability that the disturbances in the election data that the statistical analyses detect are attributable to fraud, rather than to other cultural or political influences, such as gerrymandering or geographic distribution of voting constituencies, among others. The team also produced two publications under the DFG grant: a Guide to Election Forensics and a more detailed Elections Forensics Toolkit DRG Center Working Paper. The Guide provides a more general introduction to election forensics as a field, and the DRG Center Working Paper focuses on presenting in detail the results of applying election forensics to specific elections in Afghanistan, Albania, Bangladesh, Cambodia, Kenya, Libya, South Africa, and Uganda
Topic:
Corruption, Politics, Elections, Democracy, Election watch, and USAID
Political Geography:
Uganda, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Kenya, Libya, South Africa, Cambodia, Albania, and Global Focus

80. The Middle East and the Maghreb in the Czech Foreign Policy

Author:
Marek Čejka, Jan Daniel, and Michaela Lubin
Publication Date:
12-2017
Content Type:
Book
Institution:
Institute of International Relations Prague
Abstract:
In 2017 the Czech foreign policy toward the Middle East and the Maghreb did not witness significant shifts and followed the wider goals established in the previous years. It continued to be oriented on the stabilisation of the states affected by the wars in Syria, Iraq and Libya, limiting the number of refugee arrivals to Europe, strengthening the business co-operations with promising regional partners and enhancing the co-operation and strategic partnership with Israel. Accordingly, economic diplomacy, security assistance and humanitarian relief remained the dominant modes of engagement with most of the countries in the region. Similarly to the previous years, the Czech policy mostly reactively followed the common EU positions, while being proactive regarding the issues concerning Israel and, to a lesser extent, also Syria, Jordan, Iraq and Libya. The Czech policy for the Middle East did not strongly enter the domestic public debate. The only exceptions were the conflicting positions on the issue of the Czech embassy’s relocation to Jerusalem and the role of the ambassador in Syria.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Economics, Migration, and Refugees
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, Israel, Libya, Syria, Jordan, Czech Republic, and Maghreb