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221. Reflections Five Years After the Uprisings

Author:
Dina Rashed, Michael Wahid Hanna, Ellen Lust, and Ellis Goldberg
Publication Date:
03-2016
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
Abstract:
The early months of 2016 mark five years since the eruption of the Arab uprising. The region’s wars, failed transitions, resurgent authoritarianism, and spiraling sectarianism and Islamist extremism make for a grim anniversary. To take stock of what went wrong and what might still go differently, POMEPS asked more than a dozen scholars to reflect on the experience of the last five years in a single country or a thematic issue. What has changed since the uprisings began half a decade ago? What has remained the same, or returned to pre-uprising forms? What do these developments mean for the political science of the Middle East? All these questions, and more, are pondered in the essays published in POMEPS Studies 18, Reflections Five Years After the Uprisings. All were first published in the Washington Post’s Monkey Cage blog, and collected in an open access PDF here. Together, the essays offer a diverse, informed study that should help scholars, journalists, policymakers and the public reflect on the five years since the Arab uprisings, and consider the Middle East’s future.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Democracy, Arab Spring, Conflict, Syrian War, and Uprising
Political Geography:
Middle East, Libya, Yemen, North Africa, Syria, Egypt, and Tunisia

222. Arab League Summit Report

Author:
Omar Sheira and Muhammed Ammash
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
Abstract:
The 26th Arab League Summit, held in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, came amidst a series of divisive crises in the Middle East and North African region: in Yemen, a Saudi Arabian-led coalition initiated a campaign of airstrikes to counter the advance of the Houthi rebellion; in Libya, a multiparty civil war continues between rival governments and Islamist-oriented groups; in Syria, the civil war enters its fifth year, prolonging the conflict and adding more parties; and in Iraq, the government leads an offensive against the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS), to regain territory which was seized by the group in the Summer of 2014. Meanwhile, Iran also has an alleged role in the crises in Yemen, Iraq, and Syria, which was referenced during the Summit. In addition to these issues, the agenda of the Arab League Summit also aimed to monitor the implementation of past recommendations, express support for Palestine and Somalia, and discuss ways to combat extremist groups.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Iraq, Libya, Yemen, Palestine, and Arab Countries

223. Türk Dış Politikasında İslamcı-Kemalist Hesaplaşma: Erbakan Dönemi Libya Örneği | Islamist-Kemalist Reckoning in Turkish Foreign Policy: Libyan Case in the Erbakan Era

Author:
Talip Küçükcan
Publication Date:
12-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:
Campbell’ın ‘”çifte dışlama” (double exclusion) kavramsallaştırmasından yola çıkarak, dış politikanın içeride işlerlikte olan iktidar ilişkilerinin bir uzantısı olduğunu savunan bu çalışma, Erbakan dönemi iktidar ilişkilerine odaklanarak bu dönemin dış politikasını incelemektedir. Bu noktada Refah Partisi’nin Kemalizm’in sacayakları olan laiklik, ulus-devlet ve Batıcılık ilkelerini yerinden edici söylem ve pratikleri incelenecek ve bu dönem dış politikasının Kemalist yerleşiklerin iç siyasetteki tutunma alanları üzerindeki iç politik mücadelenin bir parçası olduğu gösterilmeye çalışılacaktır. Bu anlamda bilhassa Refah Parti iktidarının ilk aylarını fazlasıyla meşgul eden Libya konusu analiz edilecek ve konunun söz konusu iki blok arasındaki mücadelede hangi söylem ve pratikler çerçevesinde nasıl bir temsile oturtulduğuna bakılacaktır. | With reference to Campbell’s ‘double exclusion’ conceptualization, considering foreign policy as a continuation of domestic power struggle, this paper focuses on Turkish foreign policy while particularly taking into account the domestic power struggle in Erbakan’s first period. At this point, the paper analyzes the Welfare Party’s discourses and practices which are adverse to Kemalism’s trivet -secularism, nationstate and Westernism- and tries to show that foreign policy in this period is a part of a domestic struggle. In this sense, especially the Libya case which had exceedingly occupied the first months of the Welfare Party rule, is analyzed. A part of this analysis is also the question of how this issue is represented while taking a deeper look at the discourses and practices within the mentioned two blocks.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Islamism, Welfare, Political Parties, and Identity
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, and Libya

224. Emerging International Norms and State Behavior: Chinese Foreign Policy between "Pluralist Pull" and "Solidarist Push"

Author:
Jelena Cupac
Publication Date:
02-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Central European University Political Science Journal
Institution:
Central European University
Abstract:
The article examines the impact of emerging international norms on the behavior of states, thus endeavoring to fill a gap within the constructivist IR scholarship which has mostly focused on the relationship betwee n fully - fledged, inter - subjective and internalized norms and the behavior these norms encourage. The main argument it advances is that emerging norms should not be considered as legitimate. Instead, they should be understood in terms of the (morally charge d) legitimacy claims that sustain them and have the ability to prompt states to consider compliance due to a fear of international shaming, exclusion or some other losses. Empirically, the article makes an inquiry into China's approach to the “responsibili ty to protect” (R2P) principle by examining its recent voting strategies in the UN Security Council, namely its abstention on the Resolution tackling Libyan crisis and three subsequent vetoes in relation to Syrian uprising.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and United Nations
Political Geography:
China, Libya, and Syria

225. Pulling Apart at the Seams: How the Smuggling and Narcotics Trade Are Helping to Reshape Governance in the Sahel

Author:
Andrew Lebovich
Publication Date:
01-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Fletcher Security Review
Institution:
The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:
The jihadist takeover of northern Mali in mid-2012 caught many regional observers by surprise. For years, al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and later the AQIM splinter group, the Movement for Oneness and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO in French), were seen largely as smugglers, criminals, and “narco-traffickers.” This perception led to a curious process by which some analysts dismissed the risk posed by these groups, while others (chiefly, Western governments) developed a near obsession with the prospect that money from smuggling operations, particularly drugs, would finance jihadist activity in the Sahara and Sahel.[1] While regional experts have since aggressively critiqued the notion of extensive ties between Sahelian militant groups and smuggling, particularly in the narcotics trade,[2] it is nonetheless important to assess the extent of these connections and how they fit into a larger regional context. ​ The purported link between cocaine trade and militant groups gained traction among outside observers due to the appearance of both in northern Mali at approximately the same time. Cocaine first began circulating through and in northern Mali in the early 2000s, while the group that would become AQIM, the Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat (GSPC), achieved notorious renown in 2003 with the kidnapping of 32 Europeans in southern Algeria. [3] Analysts also focused extensively on cocaine, despite the large circulation through and within the region of cannabis products, amphetamines, and other drugs.[4] However, the rise of smuggling networks and economies in the region long preceded the arrival of jihadist militancy. As anthropologist Judith Scheele and others have noted, smuggling in northern Mali began in the 1960s and 1970s with the trade in foodstuffs, especially powdered milk and pasta produced in Algeria, which was then re-sold in Mali and northern Niger.[5] In the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s, illicit or semi-licit (grey market) trades emerged, including the smuggling of subsidized petrol from Libya and Algeria into the Sahara, as well as the two-way movement of weapons, counterfeit or contraband cigarettes, and people.[6] This smuggling was itself part of an older process in a region that has always depended on the circulation of people and goods for survival...
Topic:
Crime, Al Qaeda, Borders, Drugs, and Smuggling
Political Geography:
Africa, Libya, Algeria, Mali, Sahel, Niger, and Sahara

226. Politics Of Gender In The Recent Democratic Transitions In The Middle East And North Africa

Author:
Canan Aslan Akman
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Alternative Politics
Abstract:
The weakness of a direct causality between democratic transitions and women-friendly outcomes remains a major finding of research on the gendered impacts of transition processes. In the recent Arab uprisings leading to regime changes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), women’s mobilization was a significant aspect of the regime changes. By contextualizing the gender dynamics and the outcomes of the democratic transitions in Tunusia, Egypt, Morrocco and Libya, this article analyzes and compares Arab women’s transitional politicization. It also inquires into women’s roles, demands and predicaments within the patriarchal structures of the transitional polities. These transitions presented both opportunities as well as challenges for Arab women under new constellations of balance of power in their respective political systems, which led to the rise of a new gender agenda. It is contended here that specific structural and agency-related factors have been intertwined to constrain women’s transitional mobilization and the post-transitional quest for empowerment. The fragility of the gender equality agenda in the post-dictatorship Arab world has been shaped, to large extent, by the legacies of previous state-led gender equality projects on by women’s (pro-) feminist activism, as well as by the nature of the transition processes and women’s civil society participation during and in the aftermath of the transitions.
Topic:
Gender Issues, Social Movement, Women, Democracy, and Political structure
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, Libya, Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia

227. TSG IntelBrief: The Islamic State in Libya

Publication Date:
02-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Soufan Group
Abstract:
The Islamic State has been moving aggressively to exploit the chaos of Libya since last summer, with profound risks for the Mediterranean region and beyond Libya is a perfect breeding ground for an expanded Islamic State, with large amounts of heavy weaponry, systemic lawlessness, a divided population, and sustained armed conflict The group has formed three active and capable groups in Libya-in Tripoli, Fezzan, and Barqa-all of which have conducted deadly attacks in recent months The phenomenon of Islamic State affiliates-beginning in the summer of 2014, before which the group was entirely focused on Iraq and Syria-is actually in the tradition of its arch-rival al-Qaeda the presence and power of the Islamic State in Libya will likely increase as conditions in Syria and Iraq deteriorate for the group, and conditions in Libya continue to worsen.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Islam, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Iraq, Libya, and Syria

228. The Islamic State's Expansion in Libya

Author:
Andrew Engel
Publication Date:
02-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Earlier this month, Aref Ali Nayed -- Libya's ambassador to the UAE and former lead coordinator of the Libya Stabilization Team -- visited Washington to address the "Islamic State"/ISIS presence in his country. In his view, the group is rapidly expanding and may threaten Europe, though the U.S. government assessment is less certain -- some American intelligence officials believe Nayed may be overstating his case, but U.S. Ambassador to Libya Deborah Jones asked in a February 4 tweet whether "a divided Libya" can withstand ISIS. Indeed, the group has dramatically increased its physical and media presence in Libya since the Islamic Youth Shura Council (IYSC) of Darnah pledged allegiance to it last October, after which ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi recognized the Libyan "provinces" of Barqa (Cyrenaica), Tripolitania, and Fezzan as belonging to his self-styled "caliphate." At the same time, the group's supporters online have been aggressively recruiting while making the case for ISIS expansion in Libya and a new strategy in North Africa.
Political Geography:
United States, Libya, and North Africa

229. Thomas H. Henriksen. America and the Rogue States. New York, NY: Palgrave Macmillan, 2012.

Publication Date:
03-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Military and Strategic Studies
Institution:
Centre for Military, Security and Strategic Studies
Abstract:
In America and the Rogue States, Thomas Henriksen lays out the relationships that exist, and have existed, between America and the states that made up George W. Bush's 'Axis of Evil.' Henriksen outlines the history of the interactions between the United States and North Korea, pre-invasion Iraq, and Iran, and through this draws out a number of themes. He also shows that the ways the relationships have played out are highly situational and there is no one-size-fits-all solution. In the last chapter, Henriksen explores American relationships with a number of states that were either once considered rogue or could become rogue, like Libya, Syria, and Cuba, referring to them as either “lesser rogues” or “troublesome states.” These states have remained “a puzzle for US foreign policy” (1) and are characterized by three things: autocratic governance, sponsorship of terrorism, and pursuit of weapons of mass destruction (WMD). There is no clear definition provided by Henriksen for what can be considered a rogue state, making it difficult to judge what other states, if any, could be considered rogue. Henriksen seems to arbitrarily decide who is rogue and who is not: Cuba is a rogue state, while Myanmar is merely troublesome. Instead of synthesizing a clear definition of the term, something that could then be applied to other states in order to judge their 'rogueness,' Henriksen uses the Bush administration's criteria (the term itself was coined by President Bill Clinton in a 1994 speech in Brussels), which was outlined in the National Security Strategy of 2002 (NSS-2002). These were “brutality toward their own people; contempt for international law; determination to acquire weapons of mass destruction (WMD); advanced military technology; sponsorship of terrorism; rejection of human rights values; and hatred for the United States and 'everything it stands for'”. The use of the NSS-2002 definition allows for the 'Axis of Evil' to fit neatly into the term, which constitutes a problem of tautology, at least for the Bush administration. Further compounding this was that, according to Henriksen at least, the administration was set on going to war in Iraq prior to assuming office. This creates a situation in which it is hard to determine whether the idea of rogue states was created to justify this desire, or it informed the desire prior to the administration taking office.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States, America, North Korea, and Libya

230. War on two fronts: The EU perspective on the foreign terrorist fighters of ISIL

Author:
Teemu Sinkkonen
Publication Date:
01-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
The ISIL surge has inspired a new generation of jihadist terrorists. The large number of foreign volunteers in Syria may cause a global terrorism blowback when ISIL is defeated in Syria/Iraq. This underlines the need for common goals and policies regarding the foreign terrorist fighter phenomenon. The EU has not been able to take a decisive role regarding the Syrian conflict and foreign terrorist fighters, but it can still play an important role in coordinating the responses of the member states. The EU could take a role in establishing common guidelines for social media regarding extremist material and agitation for violence. Finding common ground with Turkey on information gathering and sharing would be essential in preventing the travel-for-terrorism cause. Countries bordering Syria and Iraq are in danger of ISIL spill-over effects in the form of potential affiliates and organizations emulating the rebel group. Egypt and Libya are also likely to become breeding grounds for such groups.
Political Geography:
Iraq, Turkey, Libya, Syria, and Egypt