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151. The Lebanese Crisis and the Mirage of Natural Gas

Author:
Benedetta Brossa
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Lebanon is teetering on the brink of collapse as mounting economic, political and geopolitical pressures put unprecedented stress on the country’s institutional – and deeply sectarianised – setup. In October 2019, when large scale anti-establishment protests erupted across the country, what has been described as the Lebanese “Ponzi scheme”,[1] a shady mechanism through which the country was able to attract continuous injections of foreign currency to sustain Lebanon’s financial system with artificially inflated interest rates, came to a breaking point. The value of the Lebanese lira dropped significantly, as have socio-economic conditions for large parts of the population. Then came the massive explosion in Beirut, the latest, severe blow to the country’s economy, already suffering from a dysfunctional political apparatus, the recent default on the state’s debt in March 2020 and the COVID-19 pandemic. The tragic explosion reignited popular anger. Lebanese citizens renovated their grievances against the pervasive corruption and sectarianism that has dominated Lebanon’s confessional system, leading the country to the brink of bankruptcy.
Topic:
Natural Resources, Gas, Economy, and Domestic Policy
Political Geography:
Middle East, Lebanon, and Mediterranean

152. Lebanon as a Test Case for the EU’s Logic of Governmentality in Refugee Challenges

Author:
Tamirace Fakhoury
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Prior to 2011, Lebanon was no traditional gatekeeper in managing migrant and refugee flows to the EU. Following mass refugee influx from Syria, the small Middle Eastern state acquired key importance in the EU’s architecture of externalisation, alternatively framed as the set of norms and practices that the EU crafts to govern migration from a distance. Lebanon currently hosts more than 1.5 million Syrian refugees and since 2012 the EU has been the key funding power seeking to help the refugee-hosting state cope with the spillover effects that mass displacement brought about on the country. The EU’s recently published New Pact on Migration and Asylum reiterates support to refugees and refugee-hosting countries – including those in Syria’s neighbourhood – as one of the central elements of cooperation with third countries on migration and displacement. After nearly a decade of cooperation between the EU and Lebanon in this area, and ahead of the EU’s new budgetary and policy-planning cycle (2021–27), now is a key moment to critically assess EU-Lebanon cooperation on displacement from Syria.
Topic:
Government, Foreign Aid, European Union, Refugees, Economy, and Syrian War
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, Lebanon, and Syria

153. Searching for a Way Forward in Lebanon

Author:
Paul Salem, Ishac Diwan, Fadlo Khuri, and Maha Yahya
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
Lebanon is going through one of the most acute crises in its modern history. A complex economic collapse is driving hundreds of thousands into poverty and the risk of hunger, and shuttering an already wounded economy. A large cross section of the population revolted in October of last year and has created a standoff with a corrupt and sectarian oligarchy. The government is unable to chart and implement a way out of the crisis, and state institutions stand on the brink of failure. The multiple crises have threatened all sectors, including the critical education sector, previously one of the success stories of the country; universities, like other institutions, have been hard hit.
Topic:
Poverty, Sectarianism, Hunger, Economy, Protests, Crisis Management, and Higher Education
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

154. Status and Priorities for Lebanon’s Political Transition

Author:
Darin LaHood, Paul Salem, Edward M. Gabriel, Jean AbiNader, and Mona Yacoubian
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
Lebanon is on the brink of collapse due to its domestic economic and political crises, exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic. Another failed state in the Middle East would negatively impact strategic US interests. Lebanon requires a thorough reorientation towards stability and renewed socio-economic sustainability, which entails fundamental domestic reforms and targeted international support led by the US. The Middle East Institute (MEI) and the American Task Force for Lebanon (ATFL) are pleased to co-host the public launch of a joint policy paper, Recommendations for a Sustainable Bilateral Relationship. What are the strategic interests the US has in Lebanon’s stability, and how can the US support Lebanese prosperity? Is the Lebanese government’s new financial recovery plan sufficient for the US to initiate support for the government? In what ways can the US best support a strong future for Lebanon?
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economy, Political stability, Crisis Management, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

155. Protest Movements and Refugee Inclusion in Civil Society

Author:
Joyce Karam, Sawsan Abdulrahim, and Noof Assi
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
Protests in Iraq and Lebanon have drawn global attention as protestors advocate for political and economic reform and an end to corruption, especially in the wake of the Beirut blast and Lebanon’s disaster response. These countries also face economic crisis and socio-political challenges relating to the millions of refugees and IDPs within their borders and the lack of sustainable policies to address displaced people’s needs. In Lebanon and Iraq, refugees and IDPs face discrimination and lack of access to educational and public health resources in addition to the widespread economic pain and disenfranchisement that these countries protest movements aim to confront. How have refugees in these countries been active in or left out of these movements? How can access gaps and discrimination be overcome to integrate refugee rights into these protest movements? How do protest movements reflect a desire to integrate refugees and IDPs into the social fabric of these countries?
Topic:
Economics, Politics, Reform, Refugees, Displacement, and Protests
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and Lebanon

156. Human Rights in Times of Global Crises

Author:
Ibrahim Al Assil, Nour El Achi, Mai El Sadany, and Sana Mustafa
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
As COVID-19 spreads throughout the Middle East and civil wars continue, already fragile human rights protections are increasingly under threat. COVID-19 puts migrants and minority communities at increasing risk due to structural inequalities, and activist movements are losing crucial visibility and the ability to mobilize and gather in public. Meanwhile, the impacts of the virus expose existing injustices faced by detainees, women, and occupied communities. How are social movements in Lebanon, Iran, and Iraq adapting to changing dynamics as they confront pandemic-related shutdowns and existing internet restrictions? How do inequalities in the region’s legal systems prevent women from exercising personal rights, as domestic violence rates surge worldwide? What are the unique challenges faced by migrant workers, refugees, and IDPs? In countries with ongoing conflicts, what are the prospects for advocating for greater rights for detainees and prisoners of conscience?
Topic:
Civil War, Human Rights, Displacement, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:
Iraq, Iran, Middle East, and Lebanon

157. Protests and Solidarity Movements in the Middle East

Author:
Zahra Hankir, Zahra Ali, Razan Ghazzawi, Lokman Slim, and Ahmed Abu Artema
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
From independence movements in the 20th century to the Arab uprisings of 2011, to today’s ongoing movements in Iran, Iraq, Sudan, Algeria, and Lebanon, protests have marked key turning points for opening up new dialogues and drawing international attention to the Middle East as citizens speak out against injustice in their governing systems. Today we are witnessing not only Lebanon and Iraq’s powerful protest movements calling for greater rights and an end to corruption, but also solidarity movements in Palestine and Syria supporting the Black Lives Matter movement in the United States. What common goals are shared by protest movements across the Middle East? What lessons can the civil resistance currently surging in the United States learn from social movements and activism in the Middle East, and vice versa? What impact has COVID-19 had on ongoing protests in Lebanon and Iraq? Join our panel of experts as we discuss the outcomes, lessons learned, and future of social movements across the Middle East. Moderated by freelance journalist and author Zahra Hankir.
Topic:
Social Movement, Solidarity, and Protests
Political Geography:
Iraq, Iran, Sudan, Middle East, Algeria, and Lebanon

158. The Disaster in Lebanon and Challenge for the Biden Administration

Author:
Edward M. Gabriel
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Ambassadors Review
Institution:
Council of American Ambassadors
Abstract:
The disastrous state of affairs in Lebanon is mainly a result of failed governance for the past several decades. The 1989 Taif Agreement that defined peace after Lebanon’s civil war created a balancing act among various warlords and political figures who divvied up the government by sectarian affiliation. Since then, government institutions have been weakened, public employment has become a function of constituent services, contracts and social services have been doled out without any transparent process and necessary reforms have been ignored. Humanitarian consequences of this mismanagement are widespread. Social services are lacking. Public schools, health and social services, a pension system and labor laws are inadequate; and there is little protection for civil and human rights and environmental protection. In addition, there are more than 1 million Palestinian, Syrian and other refugees in the country, exerting extreme pressure on the country’s socioeconomic requirements and infrastructure. Infrastructure investment has been ignored, and 80% of hospitals and 70% of schools are run by the private sector. The economy has been running disproportionately on remittances from Lebanese emigres and tourism. The banking system, which was highly praised until a year ago, attracted hard currency and euro-bonds by offering high interest rates in order to feed a deficit-spending government, only to default when the government failed to honor the bonds due. In October 2019, the government blundered by imposing a tax on the popular, free telecom app, WhatsApp, to pay for increasing public deficits of its own making. The people had enough; they were outraged. They lost what remaining faith they had in the government, and on October 17 demonstrations erupted across the country, across all sects, generations and political persuasions. The people were upset as they experienced an increasingly poorer quality of life, especially after the Lebanese lira rapidly declined in value due to the lack of stable reserves to support the currency. In 2019, Lebanon had the third-highest debt-to-GDP ratio in the world, and its bonds are now “junk” on the international markets. It imports 80% of what it consumes. The country is broke, with little support from expatriates and allies and a ruling class that shows no willingness to reform. In 2018, the international donor community, in an effort called the CEDRE program, agreed to support Lebanon once it undertook systematic reforms. These have been neither instituted nor implemented, leaving $11 billion in international aid on the table. Subsidies on food, fuel and medicine are set to stop in December due to a lack of government reserves. Inflation is well over 200% for food items, over-the-counter medicines are almost non-existent due to hoarding and the middle class is rapidly disappearing. Banking-sector capital controls make it almost impossible for depositors to have access to their funds, and the failing exchange rate means that people who withdraw their lira face an immediate decline in purchasing power. The demonstrations were remarkable in their intensity and breadth; and it was only a matter of time before their concerns had to be addressed. The first casualty was the then- (and now again) Prime Minister Saad Hariri, who resigned, along with several of his ministers and Members of Parliament.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Conflict, Peace, and Disaster Management
Political Geography:
Middle East, Lebanon, North America, and United States of America

159. Syria’s Growing Economic Woes: Lebanon’s Crisis, the Caesar Act and Now the Coronavirus

Author:
Jihad Yazigi
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
The already bleak prospects of the Syrian economy have worsened in recent months with the Lebanon crisis, the enactment of the Caesar Act and now the coronavirus pandemic. This paper examines their impact on the Syrian economy and the population at large. While the cumulative impact is hard to assess at this stage, Syria’s population will remain heavily dependent on the international humanitarian effort. The future of this effort will itself depend on major donor countries whose own economies are likely to emerge weakened from the coronavirus pandemic.
Topic:
Economics, Public Health, Humanitarian Crisis, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Middle East, Lebanon, and Syria

160. Testing for COVID-19: What Should Lebanon Do?

Author:
Fatima Al Sayah
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
Testing for COVID-19 is globally supported but is approached differently from country to country. This paper outlines Lebanon’s approach to testing so far and asks crucial questions about what the country can do at this stage given its limited testing resources, fragmented and under-financed healthcare system and dire economic circumstances.
Topic:
Health Care Policy, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon