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1. Russia’s Potential Alliance with Hizbollah: A Strategic Challenge for the EU in the Eastern Mediterranean

Author:
Bernard Siman
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
One year on, the debate has been dominated by Israel, Hizbollah and the potential for regional war in the Middle East. An additional credible scenario has been worryingly absent: that in which Hizbollah and Russia cooperate, not necessarily to the exclusion of Iran as a third leg in a tripartite alliance. This scenario combines geography, history and geopolitics to bring Hizbollah and Russia closer together as a force to recon with. This is a possible development in the Southern Neighbourhood and the Levant that the EU needs to take seriously. Missing Russia’s potential move on Hizbollah could be an historic omission. The decapitation of Hizbollah’s chain of command that preceded the ground incursion, and Iran’s feeble reaction to the devastating assault on its Lebanese proxy, have created a new geopolitical vacuum and reality in the Eastern Mediterranean. Russia may spot an opportunity in the misfortunes of Hizbollah and move on a weakened prey. Will Russia’s direct influence return to Beirut for the first time since the 1770s when it occupied the city for a few months following the naval defeat of the Ottoman fleet at the battle of Cheshme? It is a distinct possibility, especially given Iran’s lukewarm military response, and one that the EU, and member states, must be prepared to deal with, if not pre-empt and prevent.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Non State Actors, Geopolitics, and Hezbollah
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, Lebanon, and Eastern Mediterranean

2. Beyond proxies: Iran’s deeper strategy in Syria and Lebanon

Author:
Hamidreza Azizi and Julien Barnes-Dacey
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
The war in Gaza is pushing the shadow conflict between Iran and Israel out into the open. There is a grave risk that this escalates further in Lebanon and Syria – where Iran wields powerful influence – and spirals into a full-blown regional war. The intensifying conflict in Syria and Lebanon is the result of Israel’s escalating response since Hamas’s attacks on 7 October and Iran’s “forward-defence” strategy, which aims to confront potential threats before they come close to Iranian borders. Iran’s strategy is underpinned by a decades-long effort to embed its influence in Lebanon and Syria. Western governments will not find this easy to dislodge, and an intensified coercive strategy to push Iran out of the Levant would likely be counterproductive. But Iran’s focus on preserving its influence and deterrence capability – which trumps its ideological commitment to supporting Palestinians and fighting Israel – offers opportunities to prevent a wider war. Europeans should now focus on de-escalating tensions in Lebanon and Syria; increasing conditional support for actors in both countries to advance local stabilisation goals; and intensifying their backing for structural reform that can slowly dilute Iran’s dominance.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Transnational Actors, Regional Power, and October 7
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Palestine, Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria

3. Avoiding a second front: De-escalating simmering tensions between Israel and Hezbollah

Author:
Paul Salem, Patricia Karam, and James F. Hollifield
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
Tensions have run red hot on Israel’s northern border since October, as near-daily clashes between the Israel Defense Forces and Hezbollah risk the prospect of greater escalation. US diplomatic efforts have focused on preventing a full-scale war from breaking out, while intensified military deployments have sought to deter Iran and its regional proxies. Could the recent escalation in exchanges between Israeli and Hezbollah forces lead to the opening of a second front in Israel’s war? How should we assess US mediation efforts so far? What are Hezbollah's and Israel’s strategic calculations? What would the costs of a wider war be for Lebanon and its already hard-hit population? Finally, what would be the broader regional implications of a full-scale Israeli-Hezbollah conflict
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Hezbollah, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Lebanon, and United States of America

4. American diplomacy toward Lebanon with Amb. David Hale

Author:
David Hale and Fadi Nicholas Nassar
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
Ambassador David Hale joins MEI's US-Lebanon Fellow Fadi Nicholas Nassar to discuss his book American Diplomacy Toward Lebanon: Lessons in Foreign Policy and the Middle East. They cover takeaways from his time as ambassador and the state of US-Lebanon and regional diplomacy following the Gaza war.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Regional Politics, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Australia and Lebanon

5. The ramifications of the surge in fighting between Israel and Hezbollah

Author:
Gerald Feierstein, Eran Etzion, and Charles Lister
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
MEI experts discuss the risks of a full-blown war following the latest rounds of escalation, the political and strategic calculations inside Israel and by Hezbollah, as well as the additional steps the United States can take to help avert a broader conflict. The briefing features Amb. (ret.) Gerald Feierstein, Distinguished Senior Fellow on U.S. Diplomacy at the Middle East Institute (MEI); Eran Etzion, Former Head of Policy Planning for the Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs and a Non-Resident Scholar at MEI; as well as Charles Lister, Director MEI's Syria and Countering Terrorism & Extremism Programs.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, Armed Conflict, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and Lebanon

6. The Tragedy behind Israel’s Ostensible Triumph

Author:
Riccardo Alcaro
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The killing by Israel of Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, the Islamist Shia militia that controls South Lebanon, may well go down in history as the harbinger of a seismic change in the balance of power in the Levant and arguably the whole Middle East. Iran’s ensuing retaliatory missile strike makes war with Israel all but inevitable, though its magnitude remains uncertain. Part of it will be fought with missiles, rockets and drones flying across the sky between the two arch-enemies. Part of it will be fought across the region, possibly wherever Iran’s axis of resistance – the network of pro-Iran armed groups spanning Iraq, Lebanon, Palestine, Syria and Yemen is based. Most of it will likely be fought in Lebanon, home to Hezbollah, whose demise – or even severe weakening – would result in Iran’s influence in the Levant being curtailed. While Israel’s onslaught on Hezbollah has tilted the balance of power heavily in its favour, it is too early to make predictions – after all, the Middle East has disrupted expectations time and time again in the past. It is still possible though to make some considerations and discuss a few open questions.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Hezbollah, Proxy Groups, and Hassan Nasrallah
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Israel, Lebanon, and United States of America

7. Encircling Damascus: Iran’s Foreign Minister Visits Lebanon, Syria, and Turkey

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
Iranian Foreign Minister, Hossein Amirabdollahian, has made a surprise visit to Ankara, Beirut, and Damascus, reflecting his country’s increased engagement in the region. His trip to Ankara replaced a postponed trip to Moscow, where he was set to meet with his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Syrian War, Engagement, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Lebanon, and Syria

8. France’s Foreign Policy towards Lebanon and its Discontents

Author:
Fadi Nicholas Nassar
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
The pair focus on the current state of affairs in Lebanon, historical trends in French policy towards the country and the region, and more in the latest episode of Middle East Focus.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Domestic Politics, History, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, France, and Lebanon

9. Seven Myths about the “Historic” Israel-Lebanon Maritime Border Agreement

Author:
Michael Doran
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
Commentators in the United States and Israel have hailed the agreement on the maritime border between Israel and Lebanon, which the Biden administration recently brokered, as a great success. They liken it to the Abraham Accords and claim that it is a major step toward normalizing relations between the Jewish State and a historic Arab foe. But a close examination of the agreement simply does not support this view. Amos Hochstein, the US State Department senior advisor for energy security, led the mediation effort to resolve this dispute. He built on the initiatives of Presidents Barack Obama and Donald Trump to reconcile the conflicting claims of Israel, which claimed Line 1 (see map) as the northern border of its exclusive economic zone (EEZ), and Lebanon, which claimed Line 23 as its southern border. In the final months of the Trump administration, Lebanese negotiators revised their claim, moving it further south to Line 29. Beirut, however, never registered this new claim with the United Nations. In other words, Line 23 always remained the official Lebanese position. When Hochstein arrived in Beirut last February, the Lebanese government abruptly dropped its insistence on Line 29 and presented its retreat as a sign of its flexibility, a compromise proposal that it could withdraw if the negotiations failed to produce satisfactory results.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Terrorism, Treaties and Agreements, Territorial Disputes, and Borders
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon

10. Politics, War and Eastern Mediterranean Gas

Author:
Joshua Krasna
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In the past two months, there have been several significant, interlocking developments regarding Eastern Mediterranean gas. In January, the Biden Administration withdrew American support for the Israeli-Cypriot-Greek EastMed gas pipeline. In February, U.S. officials shuttled between Israel and Lebanon for another round of talks to resolve the question of the maritime border and the exclusive rights to exploit gas in their disputed waters. Most importantly, the Russian aggression against Ukraine, which began in late February, has transformed the long-discussed European need to reduce its dependence on Russian gas (and oil) into an urgent priority. It has also exposed the disconnect between optimistic policies that anticipated an imminent shift to renewable resources and the reality that the developed world will, in the short- to medium-term, remain dependent on fossil fuels. Confronted with this new reality, does Europe's need to rapidly diversify its sources of energy increase the strategic value of Eastern Mediterranean gas? And can the Eastern Mediterranean contribute meaningfully to reducing Europe's dependence on Russian gas?
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Energy Policy, Politics, War, and Gas
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Lebanon, Egypt, and United States of America