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222. Hezbollah-dominated government emerges in Lebanon
- Author:
- Jonathan Spyer
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- The new government is the product of escalating popular protests under way since October 15. The protests are in response to Lebanon’s dire economic state.
- Topic:
- Economics, Military Strategy, Governance, Conflict, and Hezbollah
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Lebanon
223. Playing Politics: International Security Sector Assistance and the Lebanese Military’s Changing Role
- Author:
- Hijab Shah and Melissa Dalton
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Following the August Beirut port explosion, the Lebanese Armed Forces must rebuild trust with the civilian population. The LAF can serve as a critical pillar in Lebanese government efforts to strengthen national security and identity in the midst of the crisis, in light of security sector assistance from the United States and other Western partners. The Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), and Lebanon more broadly, is one of the largest recipients of foreign assistance in the Middle East. The United States and allied governments have sought to build the capabilities and professionalism of the LAF since the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war, focusing primarily on counterterrorism and border security. The LAF stood in stark contrast to other Lebanese security services in their restraint vis-à-vis the civilian population during the 2019 protests. However, recent reported violent incidents against civilians, ambiguity of the role of police forces, and concerns about both recovery efforts following the August 2020 port explosion in Beirut and extended powers under the state of emergency established by the Lebanese parliament have raised international concerns about the role of Lebanon’s security services, including the LAF. The LAF has a critical role to play in stabilizing Lebanon through a multi-faceted crisis, but will need to take concrete steps to bolster its professionalism. Lebanon’s modern politics have long been defined by confessionalism, a reality that persists even as the country is engulfed in crisis. International assistance to the LAF over the last fourteen years had intended to support the LAF as a legitimate national institution transcending confessions and supporting a broader sense of Lebanese security and identity. In the midst of the ongoing crisis in Lebanon, political turmoil at the helm of the country, and the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, there is an important opportunity for the international community to support a new path for governance in the country—as shaped and envisioned by its populace. This opportunity hinges upon leveraging existing channels of support to the LAF and building in conditionality mechanisms that hold the LAF accountable for its actions, while continuing to promote a clear articulation of priorities for the LAF and a plan to improve military effectiveness through policy and doctrine; training and equipment, education, and exercises; operations; and institutional capacity building.
- Topic:
- Security, Government, Politics, International Security, Military Affairs, and Identity
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Lebanon
224. Lebanon's monetary meltdown tests the limits of central banking
- Author:
- Patrick Honohan and Adnan Mazarei
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- Lebanon has spent the last 20 years juggling an excessive level of debt and current account deficits. Apparent financial wizardry by the central bank (Banque du Liban) helped keep the exchange rate fixed, inflation low, and debt service flowing until 2020. But these efforts merely postponed the inevitable, at a high cost. Repeated shocks to the Lebanese economy and governance weaknesses pushed the financial contraption over the cliff before the COVID-19 outbreak. The explosion that ripped through the Port of Beirut in early August added to the disarray. The Lebanese pound has crashed, the government has defaulted on some of its debt, and restrictions have been placed on deposit withdrawals and access to foreign exchange. Lebanon faces an uncertain future of uneven suffering. It will need foreign assistance, but such assistance will not extend to covering the losses of the banking system. How the losses are distributed will set the scene for Lebanon’s future development. Policymakers should aim for fairness, predictability, and stability without overindebtedness.
- Topic:
- Monetary Policy, Financial Crisis, Central Bank, and Banking
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Lebanon
225. Spring 2020 edition of Contemporary Eurasia
- Author:
- Vahram Ter–Matevosyan
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Contemporary Eurasia
- Institution:
- Institute of Oriental Studies, National Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Armenia
- Abstract:
- CONTENTS LILIT HARUTYUNYAN THE NEW IMAGE OF THE BUSINESS ELITE IN LEBANESE POLITICS: RAFIK AND SAAD HARIRI, NAJIB MIKATI AND ISSAM FARES .......................................................................................... 4 YEVA HARUTYUNYAN JAPAN’S POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC STRATEGY IN CENTRAL ASIA ........................................................................................................ 25 LILIT MAYILYAN UNDERSTANDING THE UNDERLYING DYNAMICS OF TURKISHAZERBAIJANI RELATIONS: “ONE NATION, TWO STATES?” ...... 39 ASTGHIK HAYRAPETYAN MANIFESTATIONS OF NEOCONSERVATISM IN US MIDDLE EAST POLICY DURING THE PRESIDENCY OF GEORGE W. BUSH (2001-2009) ............................................................................ 68 AUTHORS LIST .................................................................................... 87 ANNEX ................................................................................................... 88
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Military Strategy, Business, Economic Cooperation, and Neoconservatism
- Political Geography:
- Japan, Central Asia, Eurasia, Turkey, Armenia, and Lebanon
226. Global Health Security and Pandemics: COVID-19 in Syria, Palestine and Lebanon
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
- Abstract:
- In this video, Dr Andreas Papamichail (Queen Mary University of London) speaks to Dr Abdulkarim Ekzayez (King’s College London), Dr Weeam Hammoudeh (Birzeit University) and Dr Nassim El Achi (American University of Beirut) about the current situation with respect to the coronavirus pandemic in Syria, Palestine and Lebanon, and how the political situation in the three countries is affecting the response to the outbreak.
- Topic:
- Security, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Palestine, Lebanon, and Syria
227. Touching the Void: Economic Collapse and Popular Protest in the Levant
- Author:
- Peter Bartu
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Brown Journal of World Affairs
- Institution:
- Brown Journal of World Affairs
- Abstract:
- At the end of 2019, quasi-revolutionary popular protests forced the resigna- tion of two prime ministers in Lebanon and Iraq. With these protests came the opportunity for political and economic reforms that were as wide-ranging as those called for during the 2011 Arab uprisings. The challenge was to steer the public energy of city squares into policies that would affect genuine institutional change and improve the economies of both states. More recently, the COVID-19 pandemic and the oil price crash have had calamitous consequences for Iraq and Lebanon’s rank and file. Lebanon faces hyperinflation, increasing food insecurity, and the collapse of its middle class. Meanwhile, Iraq’s government cannot meet its monthly payroll, has not fostered an active private sector, and has failed to create robust financial institutions—Iraq’s banking sector has been described as a “monetary dystopia.”1 Although economic prospects look bleak in the Levant, there is still a way out of this. It is time to bring in forensic auditors, apply cur- rency controls, and consider a regional approach to recovery. Those who benefit from the status quo will fiercely resist reform, but they can be circumvented by taking reform plans directly to the people by way of referendum. The future lies in going back to those marching in the squares.
- Topic:
- Economy, Protests, Inflation, COVID-19, and Economic Recovery
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, and Lebanon
228. Deposits Made “Sacred”: The Dangerous Red Line of Lebanon’s Elites
- Author:
- Mounir Mahmalat
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Facing the ashes of an economic model based on sectarianism and cronyism, Lebanon currently endures a perfect storm of overlapping financial, economic, and political crises. Since its inauguration on January 31, 2020, the technocratic government of Prime Minister Hassan Diab, aided by international advisors, elaborated an “economic rescue plan” to explore options for recovery. Leaked as a preliminary version in early April, the plan offers a sobering analysis of Lebanon’s economic realities. The plan exposes Lebanon’s present-day power struggle between traditional communal elites and a reformist protest movement. While some assumptions and projections are questionable or left unexplained, in conclusion, the plan depicts as inevitable a contribution of large deposits in the form of “bail-in’s” to cover losses only in the banking sector twice as large as the national economy. In such a scenario, a part of the largest deposits could be transformed into bank equity or placed into a dedicated fund to be replenished with reclaimed “stolen funds.” While some assumptions and projections are questionable or left unexplained, the plan makes visible the power struggle between an elite trying to preserve its interests in the status quo and a reformist protest movement. As a major conclusion, the plan depicts as inevitable a contribution of large deposits in the form of “bail-in’s” to cover losses only in the banking sector twice as large as the national economy. In such a scenario, a part of the largest deposits could be transformed into bank equity or placed into a dedicated fund to be replenished with reclaimed “stolen funds.” Communal elites and party leaders didn’t spare strong words to denounce that plan. While Nabieh Berri unceremoniously declared deposits as “sacred”, former Prime Minister Saad Hariri prophesied “economic suicide” when deposits would be used to cover banks’ losses (assumed that much more could be murdered in the economy). Other leaders from all political parties followed suit, including Hezbollah and the Progressive Socialist Party. Liquidity injections into the banking system in a “bail-out” scenario should leave deposits untouched and be financed largely by privatization of state assets. Despite the high stakes at play for politicians’ bank accounts and the legal complexity of bail-ins, this unusual unity is not trivial to explain. For sure, by accepting any cut on deposits, elites would admit political defeat and declare a 30-year legacy of economic policies as a miserable failure.
- Topic:
- Reform, Economy, Elites, and Economic Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Lebanon