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2. Simul in the Middle East: Regional Strategic Ramifications of Israel and Hezbollah’s War
- Author:
- Boushra Jaber
- Publication Date:
- 02-2025
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
- Abstract:
- This report aims to explore the background of the Hezbollah-Israel conflict and the context surrounding their most recent war. It argues that the causes and consequences of this war have both domestic and broader regional and international dimensions. The report underlines the significant ramifications of this war by analysing the origins, progression, and outcomes of the conflict at both domestic and regional levels, as well as its international resonance. Additionally, it presents policy recommendations to address these challenges, particularly in Lebanon, focusing on containing Hezbollah and strengthening state governance. Eventually, the report highlights two main findings: first, the conflict underscores the profound geopolitical interconnections within the Middle East, illustrating how instability in one nation can create a ripple effect throughout the region, ultimately impacting its overall stability. Second, it stresses the urgent need for carefully considered and well-informed policies to navigate the complexities and interdependencies inherent in the region.
- Topic:
- Geopolitics, Hezbollah, Armed Conflict, and Regional Politics
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Lebanon
3. Double Dealers: Lebanon and the Risks of Captagon Trafficking
- Author:
- Mohanad Hage Ali
- Publication Date:
- 03-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Lebanon’s financial collapse and the Syrian conflict have allowed for the growth of an illicit economy, giving rise to a new breed of drug traffickers with ties to Lebanese parties and influence in the security forces. To address this, the country must adopt a comprehensive approach.
- Topic:
- Security, Syrian War, Drug Trafficking, and Captagon
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Lebanon, and Syria
4. From Tunis to Baghdad: Can platform-based politics take root?
- Author:
- Carrie Schenkel and James Storen
- Publication Date:
- 02-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The organization of political parties has served multiple distinct roles in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). In many cases, regimes use them to create a light veneer of democratic legitimacy for authoritarianism; in other cases, parties exist to represent one identity group or are centered around a singular individual. In rare cases, but with a few successful examples, parties exist to represent an ideology. Rarer still, but key to the future democratic success of the region, are true platform-based parties. Vacuums of political leadership have developed due to the limited role parties play in shaping governance, representation, and public policy. In a rapidly changing region, the opportunity for effective, issues-based parties has never been more evident. Iran’s proxies in the region have been significantly weakened and the “Axis of Resistance” dismantled, presenting openings for new political leadership to emerge. Political parties are not yet poised to meet the moment. In much of the region, long histories of implicit and explicit bans and one-party dominance have left political parties weak, unpopular, and ineffective. Extended periods of suppression and restriction—such as Jordan’s thirty-year party ban, Iraq’s decades of one-party rule under Saddam Hussein, and Tunisia’s twenty-three years of party bans during the Ben Ali era—have resulted in political parties that lack both organizational capacity and broad public appeal. Rather, they are fragmented, ideologically vague, and centered around individuals rather than coherent platforms. The proliferation of political parties—more than 220 are currently registered in Tunisia, for example—has further undermined any sense of clear policy platforms and the ability to differentiate one party from another. Rather than reforming or uniting under existing frameworks, disillusioned members frequently break away to form new parties, stymieing coalition-building and the development of rooted, comprehensive party ideologies. Disillusionment with traditional parties has led citizens to favor actors perceived as more directly serving their interests, such as Hezbollah—which positions itself as a resistance force against Israel—or Muslim Brotherhood-affiliated parties, which have gained trust through their provision of essential social services in Egypt, Jordan, and elsewhere. In an era defined by youth-led movements, digital activism, and persistent calls for democratization, these parties stand at a crossroads. Whether they act as agents of change or instruments of entrenched power remains a central question, shaping not only the future of governance within individual nations but also the trajectory of regional stability and development.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Corruption, Diplomacy, Politics, Elections, and Democratic Transitions
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, North Africa, and Lebanon
5. The Devastating Impact of Lebanon’s Environmental Failures
- Author:
- Peter S. Germanos and Samara Azzi
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- For decades, Lebanon has suffered under a systematic and intentional mismanagement of country resources and capital, with devastating repercussions. Poverty rates in Lebanon have skyrocketed, and the healthcare and education systems have crumbled, leaving millions vulnerable. Less discussed but no less dangerous is the environmental degradation that the country’s elite have allowed to occur. Lebanon’s deteriorating environment adds another layer of tragedy to the widespread economic crisis; sewage contaminates drinking water, generators spew toxic fumes, excessive groundwater usage renders it saline, and irrigation with sewage water contaminates agricultural produce. The price for Lebanese is becoming increasingly well documented. Cancer cases have surged, and the Lebanese people can expect to continue to suffer in the future as well. This situation was not, however, a foregone conclusion, or due solely to global climate change outside of Lebanese control. Rather, Lebanon’s significant environmental degradation is due in large part to systemic corruption and a total lack of effective regulation. Understanding the scope of this issue is vital to realizing what the people of Lebanon are facing, along with developing a plan to address some of these interconnected environmental and governance challenges.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Environment, International Cooperation, Pollution, and Public Health
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Lebanon
6. The Red-Hot Blue Line
- Author:
- Assaf Orion
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The first weekend of 2024 saw one of the fiercest exchanges of fire between Hezbollah and Israel since the 2006 war. On January 6, the group launched antitank guided missiles, attack drones, and no less than sixty-two rockets against Israel’s northern air control unit in Mount Meron, causing some damage. Hezbollah described the salvo as an “initial response” to the targeted killing of senior Hamas official Saleh al-Arouri in Beirut days earlier. In response, the Israel Defense Forces struck Hezbollah military compounds, a surface-to-air missile unit, and other targets at seven sites in south Lebanon. On January 8, an IDF strike killed Wissam al-Tawil, a senior commander in the group’s Radwan special forces. The next day, Hezbollah drones attacked the IDF’s northern command headquarters, while Israel killed the head of the group’s southern aerial unit and three of his team. In all, Hezbollah has claimed ten new “martyrs” since Saturday. Amid the fighting, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu has restated Israel’s “resolve to return the northern communities home, diplomatically if possible; otherwise, by other means.” Similarly, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein, “We prefer the path of an agreed-upon diplomatic settlement, but we are getting close to the point where the hourglass will turn over.” Senior U.S. and European officials are now shuttling between Beirut and Jerusalem in a bid to stop the escalation. What exactly will it take to prevent a war in Lebanon and possibly beyond?
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Security, Diplomacy, and Military
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon
7. Escalation on the Israel-Lebanon Front
- Author:
- Paul Salem and Randa Slim
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Middle East Institute (MEI)
- Abstract:
- The Middle East Institute (MEI) hosted an on-the-record briefing to discuss the highly volatile situation between Israel and Hezbollah across the Israeli-Lebanese border.
- Topic:
- Security, Non State Actors, Hezbollah, and Armed Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and Lebanon
8. Unequal Burdens: Corruption’s Impacts on People with Intersectional Identities in Lebanon
- Author:
- Elizabeth Reiter Dettmer and Jay Feghali
- Publication Date:
- 03-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES)
- Abstract:
- Lebanon, once celebrated for its cultural vibrancy and economic prosperity, now grapples with embedded corruption and dire prospects for reform. Lebanon’s multiple layers of social, confessional, ideological, economic, and cultural identities are governed by varied laws or rules. This creates space for corruption to combine with discriminatory practices. This assessment, Unequal Burdens: Corruption's Impacts on People with Intersectional Identities in Lebanon, focuses on corruption and its effects to measure how perceptions and experiences differ among marginalized groups and to identify any unique effects that people with intersectional identities encounter, with a focus on perspectives from outside Beirut, including Tripoli, Akkar, Baalbek, Bekaa, and surrounding areas. In 2020, IFES conducted an intersectionality assessment, Identity, and Politics in Lebanon, which found that marginalized groups in Lebanon experience multiple levels of exclusion based on social identities, including gender, disability, age, religion, sexual orientation, and refugee status. Individuals with intersectional identities are even more significantly impacted by the complexity and inherent inequality of Lebanon’s political and social systems. Lebanon has 18 officially recognized religious sects that are governed by 15 personal status laws enforced by religious courts. Social identity and the role of religion in politics both contribute to conflict and lack of consensus. These are compounded by socio-economic factors, including an imbalance in access to services – especially outside the capital, low exposure to economic and educational opportunities, limited inclusion in public service, and youth unemployment. Legal obstacles created by personal status laws and the discriminatory application of other laws seriously hinder the ability of marginalized groups to act as full and equal citizens. In early 2020, the Lebanese government introduced a new anti-corruption law and began work on a new National Anti-Corruption Strategy. Despite the new laws, Transparency International’s 2022 Corruption Perceptions Index placed Lebanon 150th of 180 countries, a decline from its rank of 128th in 2012. IFES’ assessment found that corruption is disproportionately impacting people from marginalized groups. Research identified the following key findings: Corruption on the Community Level; Corruption on the Individual Level; Impact of Corruption and Discrimination on Marginalized Groups; Impacts of Corruption on Civic Participation; Corruption as a Facilitating Factor for Participation in Public Life; Corruption as a Hindering Factor for Participation in Public Life.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Politics, Reform, and Intersectionality
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Lebanon
9. The Lebanese Front: Assessing the Threat of All-Out War
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 07-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Indicators point to a heightened risk of war between Israel and Hezbollah, with Israel leading efforts to restore security in its northern region for resident return and to deter Hezbollah from its borders. However, high war costs and US opposition could limit escalation.
- Topic:
- Hezbollah, Armed Conflict, Escalation, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Lebanon, and United States of America
10. Israel and the Palestinian support fronts: Setting a new balance of deterrence
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 08-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Netanyahu insists on violating the rules of engagement established since 7 October 2023, relying on military solutions to achieve his political goals and Israel's strategic objectives. However, this can only be realised if the link between Palestinian resistance in Gaza and its external support fronts is severed.
- Topic:
- Hezbollah, Houthis, Hamas, Benjamin Netanyahu, Armed Conflict, 2023 Gaza War, and Rules of Engagement
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Yemen, Palestine, Gaza, and Lebanon