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771. The FDI Recession Has Begun

Author:
Karl Sauvant
Publication Date:
11-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Latin American and Iberian Studies at Columbia University
Abstract:
With $1.8 trillion (according to UNCTAD), world foreign direct investment (FDI) flows reached an all-time high last year. All major regions benefitted from increased flows. But that was then. What is, and will be, the impact of the financial crisis and the recession on FDI flows this year and next?
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Africa, Russia, Central Asia, and Latin America

772. Political Crises and Democracy in Latin America Since the End of the Cold War

Author:
Luis E. González
Publication Date:
12-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
This paper addresses current problems of democratic instability in continental Latin America, assuming that all its countries have been at least “minimalist” democracies during the years 2000–07. To identify essential factors leading to instability, it focuses on the countries' most recent and acute political crises. It considers two periods in the post–cold war years: 1992–99 and 2000–07. The number of crises is similar in both periods, but their nature changes, from mostly “traditional” crises in the first (essentially elite-led affairs) to mostly non-traditional crises in the second (with crucial participation by the population). The data suggest that the main causes of the 2000–07 crises were already in place before the 1990s. Building on the available literature this leads to an explanation based on two medium-to-long term processes: the accumulation of unsatisfied expectations during a generation or so, and the still-precarious nature of these minimalist democracies. A cluster analysis strongly confirms that this model can explain both acute crises and their opposite, cases of democratic consolidation. The model also produces some post-dictions on electoral volatility (empirically confirmed), and some predictions for the years 2008–15. The discussion leads to some conclusions concerning prospects for democracy in the region. First, in spite of the crises, minimalist democracy is helping to impel democracy beyond minimalism. Second, to define “democracy,” it is not necessary to include stronger political requisites than those of “minimalism,” nor socioeconomic requisites. Both are needed, in any case, merely to stabilize minimalist democracies.
Topic:
Cold War, Democratization, Development, and Politics
Political Geography:
Latin America

773. Regime Legacies and Democratization: Explaining Variance in the Level of Democracy in Latin America, 1978—2004

Author:
Scott Mainwaring and Aníbal Pérez-Liñán
Publication Date:
12-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
In this paper we analyze the level of democracy achieved by 19 Latin American countries after 1977, in the period between the transitions from authoritarian rule and 2004. Our study shows enduring regime legacies: despite authoritarian interruptions in the past, the best predictor of the current level of democracy is the country's experience with competitive politics during the “first” (1900–44) and the “second” (1945–77) waves (and counter waves) of democratization. We document the impact of regime legacies using a fixed-effects vector decomposition model. Our finding resembles, but does not strictly confirm, theoretical claims about “path dependence” in democratization.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democratization, Development, and Politics
Political Geography:
Latin America

774. Understanding the Politics of Latin America's Plural Lefts (Chávez/Lula): Social Democracy, Populism, And Convergence on the Path to a Post-Neoliberal World

Author:
John D. French
Publication Date:
12-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
The division of Latin America's contemporary left into the “populist” or “social democratic” originated as a disciplinary move by neoliberals. Such dichotomous categorizations derive from an impoverished notion of the political in which a positivist sphere of exalted expertise and enlightenment, based on reason, rationality, and objectivity, is juxtaposed against a lesser sphere of emotion, passion, and personalism. This underlying dualism, which derives from liberalism, permeates academic disciplines and crosses lines of ideology while tracking established markers of hierarchical distinction in a region profoundly divided along multiple lines of race, class, and cultural capital. Politics is better understood as embodied work, done with words, based on real and imagined relationships between flesh-and-blood humans as they are inserted into a larger cultural and symbolic universe.
Topic:
Democratization, Government, Imperialism, and Politics
Political Geography:
Latin America

775. Water and Gender: The Unexpected Connection That Really Matters

Author:
Vivienne Bennett, Sonia Davila-Poblete, and Maria Nieves Rico
Publication Date:
10-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of International Affairs
Institution:
School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
Abstract:
Since the mid-1990s, worldwide focus on water scarcity has exploded. Attention has moved beyond the technical dimensions of water provision to the political and social contexts in which water management occurs. In many places, especially where water is scarce, control over water confers power. The political analysis of water is then an analysis of power relations. As social scientists have entered the water world, and more and more case studies are carried out in Latin America, Africa and Asia, another facet of the politics of water that has been brought to light is gender differentiation in water usage and water management. In our 2005 book, Opposing Currents: The Politics of Water and Gender in Latin America, we provided a framework for understanding the connection between water and gender and a review of the development of global water policy and gender policy since the early 1990s, using case studies from six Latin American countries to highlight the role of women in water management. We found that substantial change is still needed to overcome pernicious gender bias and imbalances that distort water management and lead to ineffective planning in the water sector.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
Africa, Asia, and Latin America

776. The Essential Role of Pair Matching in Cluster-Randomized Experiments, Application to the Mexican Universal Health Insurance

Author:
Kosuke Imai, Gary King, and Clayton Nall
Publication Date:
01-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
A basic feature of many field experiments is that investigators are only able to randomize clusters of individuals — such as households, communities, firms, medical practices, schools, or classrooms — even when the individual is the unit of interest. To recoup some of the resulting efficiency loss, many studies pair similar clusters and randomize treatment within pairs. Other studies (including almost all published political science field experiments) avoid pairing, in part because some prominent methodological articles claim to have identified serious problems with this “matched-pair cluster-randomized” design. We prove that all such claims about problems with this design are unfounded. We then show that the estimator for matched-pair designs favored in the literature is appropriate only in situations where matching is not needed. To address this problem without modeling assumptions, we generalize Neyman's (1923) approach and propose a simple new estimator with much improved statistical properties. We also introduce methods to cope with individual-level noncompliance, which most existing approaches assume away. We show that from the perspective of, among other things, bias, efficiency, power, or robustness, and in large samples or small, pairing should be used in cluster-randomized experiments whenever feasible; failing to do so is equivalent to discarding a considerable fraction of one's data. We develop these techniques in the context of a randomized evaluation we are conducting of the Mexican Universal Health Insurance Program.
Topic:
Health, Political Theory, and Socialism/Marxism
Political Geography:
Latin America

777. Histories of Innocence: Post-War Stories in Peru

Author:
Kimberly Theidon
Publication Date:
01-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
On November 1, 2006, Peruvian president Alan García announced he would be proposing a new law that would include the death penalty as one sanction for terrorism in the Penal Code. As he argued, “We are not going to allow Shining Path to return and paint their slogans on the walls of our universities. Once this law is approved, anyone who commits the serious crime of terrorism will find themselves facing a firing squad. A war forewarned does not kill people.”
Topic:
Political Violence, Terrorism, and War
Political Geography:
Latin America

778. Final Report on Ecuador's Approbatory Constitutional Referendum of September 28, 2008

Publication Date:
10-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Carter Center
Abstract:
The Carter Center led a small electoral observation mission for Ecuador's constitutional referendum on Sept. 28, 2008, to help promote a transparent and fair electoral process and accompany the country as it continues its political-institutional transformation. One of the major milestones in the process was the convening of the national constituent assembly (CA), which held session between November 2007 and July 2008. The CA's efforts culminated in the approval of a draft constitution, which was also approved by 63.93 percent of Ecuador voters during the Sept. 28, 2008, referendum.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democratization, and International Organization
Political Geography:
Latin America and Ecuador

779. Country Economic Forecasts: Brazil

Publication Date:
12-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
In sharp contrast to many emergers, Brazil was still growing very robustly in Q3. But the intensification of the global crisis, and its numerous repercussions – many of which were unforeseen – since September has been so great that it has stopped the economy in its tracks. The clearest sign of this is that annual import growth, which had been growing at close to 60% mid-year, dropped to only 9.2% in November. This is an indication of the extent to which previously soaring domestic demand growth, particularly investment, has slowed. Export volumes were already weakening in Q3 and the major deterioration in the global background since then is expected to lead to exports falling by nearly 3% in 2009 as a whole. This, together with the much lower commodity prices than firms will have budgeted for and the global fall in business confidence, will cause investment to shrink in 2009 after 15% growth in 2008. Consumer spending growth is also forecast to slow significantly but should at least stay positive, helped by an expected moderation in inflation. Meanwhile, given its healthy fiscal position, the government is likely to step up its spending. Overall, GDP growth is now forecast to slow to 1.3% in 2009. Although scope for the central bank to cut interest rates remains constrained by the weak BRL and 6%+ inflation, the rapid pace of the slowdown in both Brazil and the rest of the world may lead to a substantial reduction in underlying inflation pressures. This could pave the way for interest rate cuts to start in early-2009.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Latin America

780. Report on the Appointment of the Temporary Electoral Authorities of Ecuador

Publication Date:
11-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Carter Center
Abstract:
As described in the Transitional Regime of the Constitution approved by referendum on September 28, 2008, the Constituent Assembly held its final session (the 98th) in order to appoint the members of the Legislation and Oversight Commission, as well as the members of the temporary electoral authorities that together form the Electoral Branch: the National Electoral Council (NEC) and the Litigious Electoral Tribunal (LET). For the first time in Ecuador's modern history, the organization and evaluation of its elections have been left to two autonomous agencies: the NEC will be in charge of organizing and executing electoral processes and the LET will have jurisdictional authority on electoral matters. This report provides an account of the process of selecting and naming the temporary representatives of these two agencies. The Carter Center's principal motivation in writing this report is to make a contribution to informing national and international audiences about the process of institutional transformation taking place in Ecuador. Although they are temporary, the new electoral authorities have an important and specific purpose in organizing and judging the fairness of the next general election scheduled for April of 2009.
Topic:
Democratization, Politics, and Governance
Political Geography:
Latin America