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691. Commodity Price Volatility and World Market Integration since 1700

Author:
David S. Jacks, Kevin H. O'Rourke, and Jeffrey G. Williamson
Publication Date:
02-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Poor countries are more volatile than rich countries, and we know this volatility impedes their growth. We also know that commodity price volatility is a key source of those shocks. This paper explores commodity and manufactures price over the past three centuries to answer three questions: Has commodity price volatility increased over time? The answer is no: there is little evidence of trend since 1700. Have commodities always shown greater price volatility than manufactures? The answer is yes. Higher commodity price volatility is not the modern product of asymmetric industrial organizations - oligopolistic manufacturing versus competitive commodity markets - that only appeared with the industrial revolution. It was a fact of life deep into the 18th century. Does world market integration breed more or less commodity price volatility? The answer is less. Three centuries of history shows unambiguously that economic isolation caused by war or autarkic policy has been associated with much greater commodity price volatility, while world market integration associated with peace and pro-global policy has been associated with less commodity price volatility. Given specialization and comparative advantage, globalization has been good for growth in poor countries at least by diminishing price volatility. But comparative advantage has never been constant. Globalization increased poor country specialization in commodities when the world went open after the early 19th century; but it did not do so after the 1970s as the Third World shifted to labor-intensive manufactures. Whether price volatility or specialization dominates terms of trade and thus aggregate volatility in poor countries is thus conditional on the century.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:
Africa, South Asia, and Latin America

692. Practicing Peace, Living with War: Going Upriver in Colombia

Author:
Kimberly Theidon
Publication Date:
01-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
It is disconcerting to share a hotel room with someone who needs to tell you in detail how he learned to use a machete to chop the human body up into unrecognizable chunks of flesh. Vladimiro's military training showed not only in his butchering prowess, but also in his upright posture, an odd juxtaposition of perfect etiquette and lethal brutality.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Colombia and Latin America

693. Using Social Power to Balance Soft Power: Venezuela's Foreign

Author:
Javier Corrales
Publication Date:
10-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Washington Quarterly
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
President Hugo Cha´vez of Venezuela has achieved what no other Latin American leader has since the end of the Cold War: bringing security concerns in the Western Hemisphere back to U.S. foreign policy. Might Venezuela provoke a war against neighboring Colombia, spread weapons among insurgents abroad, disrupt oil sales to the United States, provide financial support to Hezbollah, al Qaeda or other fundamentalist movements, offer safe havens for drug dealers, invite Russia to open a military base on its territory, or even acquire nuclear weapons? These security concerns did not exist less than a decade ago, but today they occupy the attention of U.S. officials. Attention to these conventional security issues, however, carries the risk of ignoring what thus far has been Venezuela's most effective foreign policy tool in challenging the United States: the use of generous handouts abroad, peppered with a pro-poor, distribution-prone discourse. While the U.S. debate revolves around ''hard power'' and ''soft power,'' this other form can be called ''social power diplomacy.''
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Cold War
Political Geography:
United States, Colombia, and Latin America

694. Vulnerability and Resilience of the Middle Class in Latin America

Author:
Alberto Minujin and Guillermina Comas
Publication Date:
02-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The New School Graduate Program in International Affairs
Abstract:
This paper analyzes the vulnerability of the middle class in Latin America in face of the neo-liberal policies implemented in the region during recent decades and discusses possible policies and programs that promote the building and strengthening of democratic processes throughout the region. Changes in the Latin American middle class are examined. An important part of the middle class can be active participants in the process of building democracy and developing inclusive and equitable societies. This will require the implementation of policies and programs that promote the participation of the middle class in the public sphere.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, and Social Stratification
Political Geography:
Latin America

695. What Happened to the Seasons? Changing seasonality may be one of the major impacts of climate change

Author:
Steve Jennings and John Magrath
Publication Date:
10-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
The timing of rain, and intra-seasonal rainfall patterns are critical to smallholder farmers in developing countries. Seasonality influences farmers' decisions about when to cultivate and sow and harvest. It ultimately contributes to the success or failure of their crops. Worryingly, therefore, farmers are reporting that both the timing of rainy seasons and the pattern of rains within seasons are changing. These perceptions of change are striking in that they are geographically widespread and because the changes are described in remarkably consistent terms. In this paper, we relate the perceptions of farmers from several regions(East Asia, South Asia, Southern and East Africa, and Latin America) of how seasons are changing, and in some cases, how once distinct seasons appear to be disappearing altogether, and the impacts that these changes are having. We then go on to ask two critical questions. Firstly, do meteorological observations support farmers' perceptions of changing seasonality? Secondly, to what extent are these changes consistent with predictions from climate models? We conclude that changing seasonality may be one of the major impacts of climate change faced by smallholder farmers in developing countries over the next few decades. Indeed, this may already be the case. Yet it is relatively unexplored in the literature. We also suggest some of the key adaptation responses that might help farmers cope with these changes.
Topic:
Agriculture, Climate Change, Development, and Energy Policy
Political Geography:
Africa, East Asia, and Latin America

696. Brazil and the Transatlantic Community in the Wake of the Global Crisis

Author:
Thomas J Trebat
Publication Date:
06-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Latin American and Iberian Studies at Columbia University
Abstract:
As the great global crisis eases its grasp, it is a time to reconsider relations between Brazil and the North, especially the United States and the European Union. While the world economy is still reeling, it is very possible that a new and more productive period in Brazil's relations with the US and Europe is possible. This positive outcome derives from numerous factors, most especially Brazil's “peaceful rise” to a more prominent global role and the arrival of the Obama administration whose promise of a new beginning in U.S. foreign policy has been greeted with such evident enthusiasm in Latin America.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Development, Economics, International Political Economy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Brazil, and Latin America

697. Institutional development or direct support to the poor

Author:
Neil Webster
Publication Date:
11-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
There are two fundamentally different understandings of how to bring about development. One argues that through the right policies it is possible to create an enabling environment for the development of people and societies. The other emphasises that development can only take place if those who are supposed to benefit from it, insist on it themselves. In the second understanding development cannot be created from above or from outside. So-called cash transfer programmes having spread from Latin America to Africa and Asia are based on this understanding as they transfer money to poor people on certain conditions. The question is to what extent these programmes contribute to development.
Topic:
Development, Poverty, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:
Africa, Asia, and Latin America

698. El papel del liderazgo partidista en el sistema de partidos en México

Author:
Juan Pablo Navarrete Vela
Publication Date:
03-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
CONfines de Relaciones Internacionales y Ciencia Política
Abstract:
El presente trabajo aborda el tipo de liderazgo de los tres partidos fuertes en el sistema de partidos en México: Partido Acción Nacional (PAN), Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI) y el Partido de la Revolución Democrática (PRD). El periodo de estudio se ubica después de las elecciones presidenciales del año 2006, en el cual el PAN logró mantenerse en el Poder Ejecutivo.
Topic:
Democratization, Politics, and Governance
Political Geography:
Latin America and Mexico

699. Regularidades de la Política Exterior de Néstor Kirchner

Author:
Alejandro Simonoff
Publication Date:
08-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
CONfines de Relaciones Internacionales y Ciencia Política
Abstract:
La política exterior del gobierno de Néstor Kirchner ha sido presentada por muchos analistas como un fenómeno fragmentado y contradictorio. Por ello, para analizarla creemos que hacerlo en clave autonómica es un buen ejercicio; seguir no sólo los términos teóricos de Juan Carlos Puig, sino también los ajustes e innovaciones de algunos de sus discípulos; Guillermo Figari, por ejemplo.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Politics
Political Geography:
Latin America

700. Comparing the Effectiveness of Accountability Mechanisms in Eastern Europe and Latin America

Author:
Vesselin Popovski, Johanna Stratton, and Kalle Huebner
Publication Date:
10-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
A society emerging from war or authoritarianism seeks to reckon with past human rights atrocities that, if not addressed, can threaten the state's legitimacy and democratic foundations. It is in the interests of sustainable peacebuilding and democratic consolidation to promote reconciliation and healing, and foster human rights and the rule of law. In order to achieve such a transformation over the long term, the organizational strategies, political styles and mechanisms used to consolidate democracy are of critical importance and deserve closer comparative analysis with the aim to provide valuable lessons for newly democratizing societies.
Topic:
Human Rights and Law
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Latin America