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681. The Mechanics of Regime Instability in Latin America

Author:
Adam Przeworski
Publication Date:
01-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
The paper is narrowly addressed to a single puzzle: How did it happen that countries that attempted to install democracy earlier enjoyed it less frequently? Regime dynamics are driven by two mechanisms: (1) Democracies become more durable as per capita income increases, and (2) Past experiences with democracy destabilize both democracies and autocracies. As a result, countries that experiment with democracy at lower income levels experience more regime instability. Moreover, until they reach some income threshold, at any time such countries are less likely to be democratic than countries that first enter democracy when they have higher incomes. Hence, paradoxically, the resistance of European monarchies against democracy resulted in democracies that were more stable than those following postindependence attempts in Latin America.
Political Geography:
Europe and Latin America

682. Institutional Change in Latin America: External Models and their Unintended Consequences

Author:
Kurt Weyland
Publication Date:
01-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Influential theories claim that institutions shape actor behavior but are sustained by these actors' behavior. How do scholars escape from this trap of endogeneity? This article highlights a partially exogenous factor: institutional models and blueprints. Since these ideational schemes do not emerge from actor preferences, they play an independent, irreducible role in institutional creation. In fact, Latin America has borrowed many blueprints from the “First World.” But transferred to a different setting, these imported models often fail to command firm, reliable compliance and do not operate well. Therefore, informal mechanisms arise and guide behavior. External borrowing thus produces persistent disjunctures in institutional development.
Topic:
International Relations
Political Geography:
Latin America

683. Compulsory for Whom? Mandatory Voting and Electoral Participation in Brazil, 1986-2006

Author:
Timothy J. Power
Publication Date:
01-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Latin America contains roughly half of the world's countries that use compulsory voting, but this electoral institution has received only limited attention from researchers. This article examines the determinants of voter turnout in the world's largest electorate subject to mandatory voting, that of Brazil. In analyzing data from six national legislative elections held in Brazil between 1986 and 2006, the study finds that the impact of compulsory laws varies across social and economic groups. From a methodological perspective, the article argues that “compulsoriness” of mandatory voting legislation can be modeled by taking into account both exemptions to the law and the relevance of potential sanctions against non-voters. The issue of enforcement must be considered if we are to develop comprehensive models of electoral participation under conditions of compulsory voting.
Political Geography:
Brazil and Latin America

684. From Party Systems to Party Organizations: The Adaptation of Latin American Parties to Changing Environments

Author:
Laura Wills-Otero
Publication Date:
01-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
The study of party systems and political parties is one of the largest subfields in political science. Classic studies in advanced democracies focused primarily on party systems and developed theories about the causes and consequences of different types of systems. In recent years, new academic work begun to differentiate parties within systems by understanding their organizational structure, their internal dynamics, the different ways in which they interact with their constituencies, and the strategies that they use to attract voters. Studies show that parties within the same system behave and react differently given their internal conditions. This article reviews three scholarly books that deal with this issue. The works analyze the internal dynamics of Latin American political parties and their capacity to respond and adapt their structures when environmental challenges take place.
Topic:
Political Economy
Political Geography:
Latin America

685. Failed Presidencies: Identifying and Explaining a South American Anomaly

Author:
Kathryn Hochstetler and Margaret E. Edwards
Publication Date:
06-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Are presidential democracies inherently unstable and prone to breakdown? Recent work on Latin America suggests that the region has seen the emergence of a new kind of instability, where individual presidents do not manage to stay in office to the end of their terms, but the regime itself continues. This article places the Latin American experiences in a global context, and finds that the Latin American literature helps to predict the fates of presidents in other regions. The first stage of a selection model shows that presidents who are personally corrupt and preside over economic decline in contexts where democracy is paired with lower levels of GDP/capita are more likely to face challenges to their remaining in office for their entire terms. For the challenged presidents in this set, the risk of early termination increases when they use lethal force against their challengers, but decreases if they are corrupt. These factors help account for the disproportionately large number of South American presidents who have actually been forced from office, the “South American anomaly” of the title.
Political Geography:
South America and Latin America

686. Institutional Reform and Rights Revolutions in Latin America: The Cases of Costa Rica and Colombia

Author:
Bruce M. Wilson
Publication Date:
06-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
This article analyzes the conditions that allowed for expansive rights revolutions in Costa Rica and Colombia. My research suggests that many of the preconditions for rights revolutions in other regions of the world are also central to understanding Latin American cases. Of particular relevance is judicial system design including the high courts\' operating rules concerning access, standing, and judicial formality. These factors can and do mitigate the need for extensive resources and support structures necessary in other non-Latin American countries in which rights revolutions have occurred.
Political Geography:
Colombia and Latin America

687. Presidential Control of High Courts in Latin America: A Long-term View (1904-2006)

Author:
Aníbal Pérez-Liñán and Andrea Castagnola
Publication Date:
06-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
In many Latin American countries the executive branch manipulates the composition of the Supreme Court, and judicial independence has remained elusive. Because high courts can exercise judicial review and influence lower courts, incoming presidents often force the resignation of adversarial justices or “pack” the courts with friends. One indicator of this problem has been the high turnover among members of the high courts. In this paper we offer systematic evidence to compare this problem across countries and to place this issue in historical perspective. Our analysis covers 11 Latin American countries (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Panama, and Uruguay) between 1904 and 2006. We model the entrance of new justices to the Supreme Court as a function of “natural” (legal and biological) factors, political conditions empowering the president to reshuffle the Court, and institutional incentives promoting executive encroachment on the judiciary.
Political Geography:
Latin America

688. Electoral Reform, Regional Cleavages, and Party System Stability in Bolivia

Author:
Miguel Centellas
Publication Date:
06-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
This research note considers the effects of electoral system reform in Bolivia. In 1995, Bolivia moved from a list-proportional to a mixedmember proportional electoral system. The intervening years saw growing regional polarization of politics and a collapse of the existing party system. Using statistical analysis of disaggregated electoral data (at department, municipality, and district level), this paper tests whether electoral system reforms may have contributed to the current political crisis. Research findings show that regional cleavages existed prior to electoral system reform, but suggest that reforms aggravated their effects. Such evidence gives reason to question the recent popularity of mixed-member proportionality.
Political Geography:
Latin America and Bolivia

689. The Culture of Fear and Control in Costa Rica (II): The Talk of Crime and Social Changes

Author:
Sebastian Huhn
Publication Date:
09-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
The Costa Rican talk of crime is fundamentally based on the assumption that a formerly explicitly nonviolent nation has been transformed into a battleground for social violence—that is, on the belief that an alarming “crime wave” is occurring today while there was no crime at all in the past. On the basis of this assumption, the fear of crime and the call for zero tolerance and drastic law enforcement actions have been increasing. In this paper I discuss the Costa Rican talk of crime from a historical perspective to demonstrate that crime has always been a topic that has generated pervasive feelings of insecurity and social pessimism. I argue that social changes in Costa Rican society and the paradigmatic shift in economic and social‐welfare politics since the 1980s have been essential in the transformation of the talk of crime. As part of this transformation, the politicization of crime since the 1990s has been one of the most powerful changes in the dominant discourse.
Topic:
Crime, Economics, Politics, and Sociology
Political Geography:
Latin America

690. Five Centuries of Latin American Inequality

Author:
Jeffery G. Williamson
Publication Date:
08-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Most analysts of the modern Latin American economy hold to a pessimistic belief in historical persistence-they believe that Latin America has always had very high levels of inequality, suggesting it will be hard for modern social policy to create a more egalitarian society. This paper argues that this conclusion is not supported by what little evidence we have. The persistence view is based on an historical literature which has made little or no effort to be comparative. Modern analysts see a more unequal Latin America compared with Asia and the rich post-industrial nations and then assume that this must always have been true. Indeed, some have argued that high inequality appeared very early in the post-conquest Americas, and that this fact supported rent-seeking and anti-growth institutions which help explain the disappointing growth performance we observe there even today. This paper argues to the contrary. Compared with the rest of the world, inequality was not high in pre-conquest 1491, nor was it high in the postconquest decades following 1492. Indeed, it was not even high in the mid-19th century just prior Latin America's belle époque. It only became high thereafter. Historical persistence in Latin American inequality is a myth.
Political Geography:
Latin America