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441. Assessing Potential Inflation Consequences of QE after Financial Crises

Author:
Samuel Reynard
Publication Date:
11-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Financial crises have been followed by different inflation paths which are related to monetary policy and money creation by the banking sector during those crises. Accounting for equilibrium changes and non-linearity issues, the empirical relationship between money and subsequent inflation developments has remained stable and similar in crisis and normal times. This analysis can explain why the financial crisis in Argentina in the early 2000s was followed by increasing inflation, whereas Japan experienced deflation in the 1990s and 2000s despite quantitative easing. Current quantitative easing policies should lead to increasing and persistent inflation over the next years.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Latin America

442. Brazil: an emerging peacekeeping actor

Author:
Per M. Norheim-Martinsen
Publication Date:
11-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
As the presence of Western states in UN peacekeeping operations (PKOs) has gradually decreased, new states have been filling the resultant void, although these operations remain wedded to Western ideas and standards of how such interventions should be carried out. However, as emerging powers like Brazil are now taking the lead on the ground, the question that this report seeks to shed light on is how this is starting to affect the way in which the UN carries out its PKOs. It assesses the Brazilian military lead in MINUSTAH in Haiti against the backdrop of the so-called “pacification” strategy currently employed in the favelas of Rio de Janeiro. It shows that rather than being a “transmission belt” for a traditional Western model of military intervention, Brazil's lead in MINUSTAH has had an added value, building on Brazilian experience with urban conflict, which is an area with which the UN and Western states are unfamiliar. In fact, several states, including the U.S., have started to look to Brazil when developing and adapting concepts for urban and anti-crime operations. This shows that as Brazil has become a more active participant in UN PKOs, it has also gradually begun to set the agenda for how the UN runs such operations.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Peace Studies, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
Brazil and Latin America

443. The Twenty-first Century Expansion of the Transnational Drug Trade in Africa

Author:
Ashley Neese Bybee
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of International Affairs
Institution:
School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
Abstract:
In the last decade, West Africa emerged as a major transit hub for Latin American Drug Trafficking Organizations (DTOs) transporting cocaine to Western Europe. Since that time, there has been cause for hope and despair. The UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), and an array of international donors have made great strides in acknowledging the growing problem of drug trafficking and have implemented practical measures to stem this flow. All the while, the fears of many observers have been confirmed as the insidious effects of the drug trade have begun to take effect in many West African states. Consumption is on the rise and narco-corruption now undermines the rule of law and legitimate economic growth necessary for development and stability. One of the most alarming trends that place Africa and Africans on the radar of policy makers, law enforcement, and researchers alike is the number of new fronts on which the illicit drug trade is growing. Its geographic expansion beyond the relatively confined region of West Africa is now endangering East and Southern Africa. The arrival of new drugs to the region—heroin and Amphetamine-Type Stimulants (ATS, commonly referred to as synthetic drugs)—has been accompanied by the discovery of local manufacturing facilities to process them. Lastly, the growing level of involvement by Africans—who initially served as facilitators but now appear to be taking a more proactive role—raises concerns that a new generation of African DTOs is rising in the ranks. This paper examines how each of these trends are contributing to the twenty-first century expansion of the drug trade in Africa and summarizes some of the impacts they are having on the states and their populations.
Political Geography:
Africa, Latin America, and Western Europe

444. Human Trafficking: A Global Perspective

Author:
Emmania Rodriguez
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of International Affairs
Institution:
School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
Abstract:
Louise Shelley's new book, Human Trafficking: A Global Perspective is the culmination of sixteen years of research, providing both an excellent introduction to human trafficking and a comprehensive examination of its growth. The book balances breadth and depth by combining firsthand accounts of field practitioners with the analyses of academic experts across the globe. Shelley illustrates how human trafficking's exponential growth during the last twenty years was fueled by regional conflicts, globalization, and climate change. These factors displace populations, and make them vulnerable to exploitation in sectors ranging from agriculture to sex work. Shelley believes that in order to stem human trafficking's current momentum there needs to be a concerted multilateral effort by organizations, government, and civil society, transcending political boundaries. In attempting to be thorough, Shelley occasionally includes some controversial research claims. For example, while discussing trafficking in the United States, Orlando Patterson is cited claiming that the prevalence of exploitation within the African American community arises from "centuries of slavery [emasculating] the role of the father and [encouraging] . . . breeding of children without attention to their supervision." However, Shelley refers to other experts, and her approach provides readers with a broad spectrum of knowledge. For those unfamiliar with the subject matter, Shelley's research incorporates historical context and explains the push and pull factors behind human trafficking. Experts will find the book's truly global perspective satisfying. Case studies cover multiple countries in every major region, from developing nations such as Nepal and China in Asia and Honduras and Brazil in Latin America, to developed nations such as the United States and Canada in North America. For its versatility, Human Trafficking: A Global Perspective deserves a place on anyone's bookshelf.
Political Geography:
United States, China, Canada, Brazil, and Latin America

445. Interview: President Juan Manuel Santos of Colombia

Author:
Alan Philps
Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Colombia has paid a heavy price in battling the cocaine trade which at one stage threatened to destroy the country. President Santos, the most outspoken of Latin American leaders on drugs policy, tells Alan Philps that now the consuming nations must share the burden.
Political Geography:
Colombia and Latin America

446. Democratizing Resource Governance through Prior Consultations? Lessons from Bolivia's Hydrocarbon Sector

Author:
Almut Schilling-Vacaflor
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
With the recent expansion of extractive industries in Latin America, contestations with the affected communities have increased in number and intensity. Therein, the indigenous right to prior consultation and to free, prior and informed consent has played a crucial role. Based on the empirical study of several consultation processes in Bolivia's hydrocarbon sector since 2007 and referring to deliberative theories as well as human rights norms, this article explores the enabling and constraining factors in the democratization of resource governance through these procedures. While the specificities of consultations in plurinational Bolivia are taken into account, the study also draws general conclusions for similar processes in other resource‐reliant countries.
Topic:
Democratization, Human Rights, Natural Resources, and Governance
Political Geography:
Latin America and Bolivia

447. Transparency in Military Spending and Arms Acquisitions in Latin America and the Caribbean

Author:
Mark Bromley and Carina Solmirano
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
Over the past two decades democratic processes have strengthened in Latin America and the Caribbean following decades of authoritarian rule. The region faces no major external military threat and—other than a limited number of unresolved border disputes—relations between neighbouring states are peaceful. Nonetheless, military expenditure and arms acquisitions have increased significantly in recent years. These developments have sparked fears about their potential impact on regional stability as well as the possibility of a regional arms race developing. In addition, questions have been asked as to whether the increase in spending has been made at the expense of the social needs of the citizens of Latin America and the Caribbean. In this context, governments in the region have renewed efforts to improve the levels of transparency of their military spending and arms acquisitions.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Poverty, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
Latin America and Caribbean

448. The Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP) Negotiations: Overview and Prospects

Author:
Deborah Elms and C. L. Lim
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is a trade agreement currently under negotiation between nine countries in three continents, including Australia, Brunei, Chile, Malaysia, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, United States and Vietnam. In late 2011 three additional countries--Japan, Canada and Mexico--announced their intention to join as well. The TPP has always been called a "high quality, 21st century" agreement that covers a range of topics not always found in free trade agreements. This includes not just trade in goods, services and investment, but also intellectual property rights, government procurement, labor, environment, regulations, and small and medium enterprises. This paper traces the complex negotiations and evolution of the talks since the early 2000s to the present.
Topic:
Economics, Environment, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, Labor Issues, and Intellectual Property/Copyright
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, Malaysia, Canada, Israel, Vietnam, Latin America, Australia, Australia/Pacific, Mexico, Singapore, Chile, Peru, New Zealand, and Brunei

449. Rethinking Latin America

Author:
Christopher Sabatini
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Foreign Affairs
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Running down the list of the U.S. State Department's Latin America policy objectives in El País in September 2010, the economist Moisés Naím noted that they focused almost exclusively on domestic concerns: building democratic institutions, promoting local social and economic opportunity, and so forth. These issues were not only given a higher priority in policy toward Latin America than they were for other regions, but they were also issues largely beyond Washington's ability to control. Naím was correct, but the point can be taken further. The focus on politics within Latin American states rather than on relations between them is characteristic not simply of the State Department but also of the Latin American regional studies community in the United States more generally, from where the U.S. policy and advocacy community absorbs much of its personnel and intellectual orientation. Such attitudes have harmed U.S. policy by focusing excessive attention on small countries with little geostrategic influence and fostering the facile notion that political and economic liberalization are the necessary and sufficient criteria for the advancement of all major U.S. interests. This approach has distorted Washington's calculations of regional politics and hampered its ability to counter outside influences and deal sensibly with rising regional powers. U.S. scholars and policymakers need a reminder that development does not mean the end of politics and that twenty-first-century Latin America has its own, autonomous power dynamics. A little realism would go a long way. THAT '80S SHOW When it comes to Latin America, for decades U.S. universities and regional studies centers have focused almost exclusively on matters of comparative politics and political and economic development. In the 1970s and 1980s, the last time scholars paid much attention to the region's international relations, their chief concern was the workings and implications of U.S. hegemony. The issue facing both scholars and policymakers today, however, is what happens as U.S. power declines and new forces in the region emerge, and unfortunately, when it comes to these questions, there is little intellectual capital on which to draw.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
United States and Latin America

450. Brazil as an Emerging Environmental Donor

Author:
Kathryn Hochstetler
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
Brazil has always focused on development strategies, but it has recently shifted more attention, on balance, from thinking of its own development to offering assistance to other countries in their national efforts. Former President Lula da Silva has argued that Brazil's own experience with solving problems in inauspicious conditions makes it a particularly good partner for other developing countries (Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada [IPEA] and Agência Brasileira de Cooperação [ABC], 2010: 7). Brazil self-consciously approaches its external development assistance from the perspective of a recipient, endorsing an egalitarian “solidarity diplomacy” that stresses holistic development in its partners. The ultimate aim is “sustainable growth,” which includes “social inclusion and respect for the environment” (IPEA and ABC, 2010: 32-33).
Topic:
Development, Diplomacy, Environment, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:
Brazil and Latin America