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141. Latin America at a Crossroads

Author:
Antonella Mori and Loris Zanatta
Publication Date:
02-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:
Latin America is at a crossroads. The “golden age” inaugurated with the turn of the new millennium seems a faint memory. Economies that had grown at a steady pace are now slowing down, while some are in freefall. Politically, the “pink tide” of populist movements is now ebbing. From Brazil to Venezuela, from Argentina to Bolivia, left-leaning leaders across the region seem to have lost their bond with the people. Their promises of an equitable society through an apparently never-ending redistribution of wealth crashed against the reality of shortsighted and unsustainable policies. Political and social turmoil are heralding an era of changes and – maybe – of new opportunities for Latin America. And this ‘great transformation’ is precisely what this volume is all about. Where is it leading to? Does it mark the beginning of a new age? Which lessons can be learnt from the past? Leading international scholars and experts scratch beneath the surface of Latin America’s current crisis to have a clearer glimpse of what the future holds and draw policy recommendations, especially for the EU.
Topic:
Reform, Economic structure, and Global Political Economy
Political Geography:
Latin America and European Union

142. The Impact of the Tax System and Social Expenditure on the Distribution of Income and Poverty in Latin America

Author:
Nora Lustig
Publication Date:
03-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
This paper presents results on the impact of fiscal policy on inequality and poverty in sixteen Latin American countries around 2010. The countries that redistribute the most are Argentina, Brazil, Costa Rica and Uruguay, and the least, Guatemala, Honduras and Peru. At higher social spending, greater redistribution is achieved, but countries with a similar level of social spending show different levels of redistribution which suggests that other factors such as the composition and targeting of the expenditures are involved in determining the redistributive effect beyond its size. Fiscal policy reduces extreme poverty in twelve countries. However, the incidence of poverty after taxes, subsidies and monetary transfers is higher than the pre-fisc poverty rate in Bolivia, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua, even when fiscal policy does reduce inequality. Expenditure on pre-school and primary education is equalizing and pro-poor in all countries. Spending on secondary education is equalizing in all countries and also pro-poor in some countries but not all. Expenditure on tertiary education is never pro-poor, but it is equalizing, with the exception of Guatemala, where it is regressive and unequalizing and in Venezuela, where its redistributive effect is zero. Health spending is always equalizing but it is pro-poor only in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Costa Rica, Ecuador, the Dominican Republic, Uruguay and Venezuela.
Topic:
Civil Society, Poverty, Capitalism, and Income Inequality
Political Geography:
Latin America

143. Chinese FDI in Latin America

Author:
Angel Melguizo, Sean Miner, and Rolando Avendano
Publication Date:
06-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
China's global influence is on the rise. In Latin America, Chinese firms are not only increasing their investment, but rapidly expanding to new areas of the economy. To explore the implications for all stakeholders in the region, the Atlantic Council, in partnership with the OECD, launched on June 26 a revealing study analyzing data not previously available to the public. New numbers show dramatic rises in FDI from China in Latin America—beyond oil and mining, China is today focusing on ICT, electricity, finance, and alternative energy.
Topic:
International Political Economy
Political Geography:
China and Latin America

144. Women's Leadership in Latin America

Author:
Laura Albornoz Pollman
Publication Date:
05-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Latin America, with its history of female heads of state, seems to be a rising global leader in terms of notable women in top-level leadership roles. What is the region's secret sauce? Does this phenomenon translate to the empowerment of women throughout Latin American societies? And are women rising to the top across sectors?
Topic:
Gender Issues
Political Geography:
Latin America

145. The Billionaire at the Centre of the Largest Corruption Scandal in Latin America

Author:
Marcelo López de Aragón
Publication Date:
12-2017
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Council on International Policy (CIP)
Abstract:
The name Odebrecht has become irremediably tied to one of the largest corruption scandals in Latin American history. In the midst of the ongoing scandal is the man bearing the company’s name, one of Brazil’s richest men, Marcelo Odebrecht; a 48-year- old executive, who went from managing one of the world's largest construction firms to having several high-ranking government officials in Latin America look on nervously as the Brazilian construction tycoon confesses and provides details on an unparalleled and sophisticated bribery and bid-rigging scheme to Brazilian judicial authorities and to US courts.
Topic:
Corruption and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Latin America

146. Where the Rainbow Tide Won’t Flow: Violence and LGBT Rights in Latin America

Author:
Matthew T. Klick
Publication Date:
04-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on Human Rights Education, University of Denver
Abstract:
In recent months, the experience of Latin America’s LGBT community has come under renewed focus by myriad outlets. Perhaps somewhat surprising, much of the attention is positive – lauding new legislation or advancements in LGBT rights and policy across the region. But the achievements of some countries obscure a darker reality – an ongoing popular intolerance, evidence by hate crimes across the region. Indeed, the region has seen a wave – the so-called “rainbow tide” in fact – of progressive policies, lending an outward sense of LGBT tolerance, and even hemispheric leadership. Argentina, under Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, legalized same-sex marriage (2010), and more progressively yet, passed legislation that allowed individuals to change their names and gender identity on official documents without seeking court approval first. Chile has since approved its Agreement for Civil Union law, which grants same-sex partners identical rights regarding property, finances and health care as heterosexual couples. Progressive laws and policy have similarly swept Uruguay (the world’s most gay-friendly country according to some), Costa Rica, Colombia and Mexico. These advances take place despite the ongoing influence of the Catholic Church, and increasingly, an ardently conservative Evangelical movement throughout the region. Such gains should not be dismissed lightly. Unfortunately, however, the above gains have been matched by a spike in hate crimes, and attacks on prominent LGBT leaders. Six of the top eight countries in murders of transgender people are in Latin America (India and the U.S. are the others). In per capita terms, Honduras dominates all comers, but again the region as a whole is disproportionately represented, appearing in 12 of the top 13 spots. In Argentina, which has arguably been most lauded for its progressiveness, vocal trans activist Diana Sacayán was violently murdered. In a stunning turn, her death was the third transgender killing in Argentina that month, following the stabbings of Marcela Chocobar and Coty Olmos. Sao Paolo Police, meanwhile, brazenly, and viciously, beat Veronica Bolina beyond recognition, while she was in custody. These events, though gruesome and tragic, do not necessarily represent a systemic backlash by society. In other countries of the region, however, it is yet more dangerous still to openly identify as LGBT.
Topic:
Human Rights, Discrimination, Violence, LGBT+, and Sexuality
Political Geography:
Latin America and North America

147. Power and Crisis: Explaining Varieties of Commercial Banking Systems in Argentina, Brazil and Mexico

Author:
Sebastian Etchemendy and Puente Ignacio
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
In the early 1980s Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico had commer- cial banking sectors that were dominated by local banks. The largest countries in Latin America were subjected to common international economic pressures during both the neoliberal 1980s and 1990s – includ- ing the expansion of capital markets in the periphery and integration into the regional trade agreements NAFTA and Mercosur – and the post- 1998 financial turmoil. By 2015, however, the three countries had con- solidated alternative commercial banking systems: domestic private group dominated (Brazil), mixed (i.e., ownership more evenly divided among public, private domestic, and foreign banks (Argentina), and foreign bank dominated (Mexico). The article traces these alternative outcomes to the power of prereform private financial groups, the viru- lence of “twin crises” in the transition from fixed to floating exchange rates, and the (contingent) role played by government ideology.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, Finance, Trade, and Banking
Political Geography:
Brazil, Argentina, South America, Latin America, North America, and Mexico

148. Revisiting the Issue of Democratic Deterioration in Venezuela, 1974–1998

Author:
Anibal F. Gauna
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
This article examines the issue of democratic deterioration by revisiting the Venezuelan case (1974–1998). Using sequence elaboration and alternative case-focused theories, it tests and confirms the hypothesis that presidential partyarchy was the main contextual explanatory factor behind the crisis that led to Venezuela’s democratic deterioration. Building on elite conflict theory, it also aims to integrate previous studies’ insights and better explain the timing of factors to illustrate how economic presidentialism (the highly autonomous executive control of a state-controlled economy) was the main mechanism leading to democratic deterioration.
Topic:
Economics, Authoritarianism, Democracy, and State-Owned Enterprises
Political Geography:
South America, Latin America, and Venezuela

149. The Old Rules No Longer Apply: Explaining NarcoAssassinations of Mexican Politicians

Author:
Laura Ross Blume
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Between 2005 and 2015, organized criminal groups murdered 209 politicians in Mexico. This paper explains why. It argues that the two interwoven trends of political and criminal pluralization in Mexico fostered the conditions for a new type of criminal violence against politicians. Mexican politicians are now targeted for accepting illicit money as well as for standing up to criminals. Moreover, this violence is evidence of an alarming and persistent pattern in Mexico of politicians enlisting criminal organizations to eliminate their political competition. Using a zero-inflated negative binomial model, this paper shows there is a strong statistical relationship between the increase in assassinations and the increases in political pluralization and criminal fragmentation. The article concludes that the failure to protect local public officials creates greater opportunities for the emergence of subnational authoritarian enclaves and threatens democratic consolidation.
Topic:
Crime, Authoritarianism, Democracy, Assassination, and Organized Crime
Political Geography:
Latin America, North America, and Mexico

150. Electoral Competition and Social Spending in the Argentine Provinces

Author:
Lucas Gonzalez
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
What is the effect of political competition on subnational social spending? Using descriptive statistics and regression models for original budget panel data for the 24 Argentine provinces between 1993 and 2009, the study finds that social spending increases the more electorally secure governors are and the longer they have been in office. It also finds that other arguments in the literature are relevant in explaining variations on types of spending, such as partisan fragmentation in the districts. The article discusses these findings for the Argentine provinces and explores their implications with regard to the debates on the effects of electoral competition and the design of social policies, especially in developing countries and federal democracies.
Topic:
Developing World, Elections, Democracy, Local, and Social Spending
Political Geography:
Argentina, South America, and Latin America