Political Geography: Latin America / Topic: Voting

Author:: International Crisis Group
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: With Nicaraguans heading to the polls in November, the government is already trying to engineer the outcome in its favour. An unfair ballot could spark unrest and a violent crackdown. External actors should push for reforms and dialogue with the opposition while eschewing counterproductive sanctions.
Topic:: Corruption, Elections, Voting, Oppression, Election Interference, and Rigged Elections
Political Geography:: Latin America, Central America, Nicaragua, and North America

Author:: J. Patrice McSherry
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: Will the people of Chile be able to shape their own destiny via a plebiscite? Two months before the scheduled vote, the answer remains uncertain.
Topic:: Democratization, Democracy, State Formation, State Actors, Voting, and Nation-State
Political Geography:: Latin America and Chile

Author:: Sandra Rozo and Juan Vargas
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Empirical Studies of Conflict Project (ESOC)
Abstract:: Can voter’s negative attitudes toward immigration be explained by self-interest or sociotropic motives? Self-interested voters care about their personal economic circumstances. Sociotropic voters display in-group bias and perceive migrants as threats to their culture. We study the voting effects of forced internal and international migration in Colombia and exploit the disproportionate flows of migrants to municipalities with early settlements of individuals from their origin locations. In line with the sociotropic hypothesis, we find that only international migration inflows increase political participation and shift votes from left- to right-wing ideologies. These results are not accounted for by the observed changes caused by migrants in socioeconomic variables.
Topic:: Migration, Immigration, Ideology, and Voting
Political Geography:: Colombia and Latin America

Author:: Mounu Prem, Pablo Muñoz, Luis R. Martınez, Felipe González, and Marίa Angélica Bautista
Publication Date:: 08-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Empirical Studies of Conflict Project (ESOC)
Abstract:: We show that proximity to military bases during the Pinochet dictatorship in Chile (1973-1990) exposed civilians to more state repression and led to (i) stronger electoral opposition to Pinochet and (ii) a long-lasting strengthening of democratic values. Our empirical strategy exploits the location of military bases during the many decades of democratic rule before the military coup, which we show is unrelated to pre-coup electoral outcomes. We find that residents of counties housing these bases both registered and voted “No” to Pinochet’s continuation in power at higher rates in the crucial 1988 plebiscite that bolstered the democratic transition. These counties also experienced more civilian deaths and forced disappearances during the dictatorship, indicating that increased exposure to repression affected voters’ behavior. After democratization, residents of these counties who were exposed to the military coup report greater support for democracy in surveys, but there are no persistent effects on electoral outcomes.
Topic:: Military Affairs, Democracy, Military Intervention, Coup, Voting, and Dictatorship
Political Geography:: Latin America and Chile

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