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1. The U.S. Pursues Increasingly Aggressive Policy towards Latin America

Author:
Bartłomiej Znojek
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Donald Trump’s administration is seeking to rebuild U.S. influence in Latin America. It is trying to convince the countries of the region that cooperation with the United States will bring development and increased security to the Americas. For the time being, however, this approach mainly serves U.S. security interests, in particular combating irregular migration, organised crime and drug trafficking, and reducing China’s influence. The current administration’s threats, inconsistent positions, and expansionist drive will deepen the distrust of the U.S. and antagonise important Latin American partners.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Migration, Donald Trump, Strategic Interests, and Drug Trafficking
Political Geography:
Latin America and United States of America

2. The next decade of strategic competition: How the Pentagon can use special operations forces to better compete

Author:
Clementine G. Starling-Daniels and Theresa Luetkefend
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Strategic competition is likely to intensify over the next decade, increasing the demands on the United States to deter and defend against wide-ranging and simultaneous security challenges across multiple domains and regions worldwide. In that time frame, the Department of Defense (DOD) and the Joint Force should more effectively leverage the competencies of US Special Operations Forces (USSOF) to compete with US strategic adversaries. Three realities facing the DOD over the next decade lend themselves toward leveraging USSOF more in strategic competition. First, the growing need to counter globally active and increasingly cooperative aggressors, while the broader Joint Force remains focused on the Indo-Pacific and Europe, underscores the value of leveraging USSOF to manage competition in other regions. Second, the desire to avoid war and manage competition below the threshold of conflict aligns with USSOF’s expertise in the irregular aspects of competition. Third, unless defense spending and recruitment dramatically increase over the next decade, the Joint Force will likely have to manage more security challenges without a commensurate increase in force size and capabilities, which underscores the need for the DOD to maximize every tool at its disposal, including the use of USSOF to help manage strategic competition. The US government must harness all instruments of national power, alongside its network of allies and partners, to uphold international security, deter attacks, and counter efforts to undermine US security interests. Achieving this requires effectively integrating and leveraging the distinct roles of the DOD, interagency partners, the intelligence community (IC), and the Joint Force, including components like USSOF that have not been traditionally prioritized in strategic competition. For the past two decades, USSOF achieved critical operational successes during the Global War on Terror, primarily through counterterrorism and direct-action missions. However, peer and near-peer competition now demands a broader application of USSOF’s twelve core activities, with emphasis on seven: special reconnaissance, foreign internal defense, security force assistance, civil affairs operations, military information support operations, unconventional warfare, and direct action. Over the next decade, the DOD should emphasize USSOF’s return to its roots—the core competencies USSOF conducted and refined during the Cold War. USSOF’s unconventional warfare support of resistance groups in Europe; its support of covert intelligence operations in Eastern Europe, Asia, and Latin America; its evacuation missions of civilians in Africa; and its guerrilla and counterguerrilla operations helped combat Soviet influence operations worldwide. During that era, special operations became one of the US military’s key enablers to counter coercion below the threshold of armed conflict, and that is how USSOF should be applied in the next decade to help manage strategic competition. This report outlines five ways the Department of Defense should use Special Operations Forces over the next decade to support US efforts in strategic competition. USSOF should be leveraged to: Enhance the US government’s situational awareness of strategic competition dynamics globally. Entangle adversaries in competition to prevent escalation. Strengthen allied and partner resilience to support the US strategy of deterrence by denial. Support integration across domains for greater effect at the tactical edge Contribute to US information and decision advantage by leveraging USSOF’s role as a technological pathfinder. This report seeks to clarify USSOF’s role in strategic competition over the next decade, address gaps in understanding within the DOD and the broader national security community about USSOF’s competencies, and guide future resource and force development decisions. By prioritizing the above five functions, USSOF can bolster the US competitive edge and support the DOD’s management of challenges across diverse theaters and domains.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, National Security, Terrorism, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
Africa, China, Middle East, Latin America, and United States of America

3. Next-Generation Perspectives on Taiwan: Insights from the 2024 Taiwan-US Policy Program

Author:
Bonnie S. Glaser, Joshua Stone, Alicja Bachulska, Viking Bohman, and Francesca Ghiretti
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
The papers in this compendium were written by 11 members of the 2024 Taiwan-US Policy Program (TUPP) delegation: Alicja Bachulska, Viking Bohman, Francesca Ghiretti, Heather Hwalek, Leland Lazarus, Lauren Racusin, Friso Stevens, Joshua Stone, Brian Volsky, Theresa Winter, Adrienne Wu. Transatlantic attention to Taiwan has surged in recent years for several reasons. First, Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has led to increased concern in the United States and Europe that Beijing’s growing military capabilities and declining confidence in its ability to achieve peaceful reunification will soon lead the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to attempt a takeover of Taiwan by force. The cost of such a war would carry a price tag of around $10 trillion, equal to about 10% of global GDP, according to Bloomberg Economics, far higher than the economic impact of the 2008 global financial crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the war in Ukraine. The devastating impact of a Taiwan Strait conflict has provided a wake-up call for leaders in Europe who now echo the Biden administration’s warnings to PRC leader Xi Jinping to refrain from using violence to change the status quo in the Taiwan Strait. In addition, Taiwan is now a regular agenda item in the US-EU Consultations on the Indo-Pacific and the US-EU Dialogue on China. Second, intensifying US-China strategic competition has increasingly focused on technology with chips at the center. Taiwan produces more than 60% of the world’s semiconductors and more than 90% of the most advanced ones. A single company, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation (TSMC), manufactures most of those chips. Recognition of Taiwan’s dominant role in the semiconductor supply chain has provided another reason to bolster deterrence. It has also sparked interest in “friendshoring” and “onshoring” semiconductor manufacturing. TSMC plans to start production at its first fab in Arizona in 2025 and will break ground on another in Dresden at the end of 2024 with an estimated completion date of 2027. Recognizing the rising geopolitical risks and their own strategic dependencies, the United States and the EU have made building resilient supply chains a priority, especially in semiconductors. In its 2021 Indo-Pacific Strategy, Brussels explicitly committed the EU to engaging with Taiwan in creating resilient supply chains. Third, rising concern in the United States and Europe about election interference and disinformation have sparked interest in learning from Taiwan’s experience in combatting such threats. In the run-up to the January 13, 2024, presidential and legislative elections, PRC attempts to interfere in Taiwan’s politics surged to unprecedented levels through economic coercion, direct political meddling, displays of military force, and manipulation of social media. As the United States and many European countries prepare for their own national elections this year, they are engaging with experts from Taiwan to better understand PRC tactics and the tools that Taiwan successfully employed to counter PRC interference. Fourth, the United States and Europe increasingly recognize that Taiwan’s vibrant and successful democracy is under threat from an authoritarian regime. Taiwan has received high marks for protecting political rights and holding free and fair elections. Taiwan’s democratic achievements are even more impressive when set against the backdrop of a deterioration in freedom worldwide. Like other industrialized democracies, Taiwan faces a multitude of challenges that are especially difficult to address in the face of PRC efforts that prevent Taiwan’s government and its people from interacting with the world. Taiwan’s exclusion from international organizations also hampers the world’s ability to develop effective solutions to myriad problems. The Taiwan-US Policy Program (TUPP) was launched in 2017 to encourage young professionals from the United States to include Taiwan in their research and help Taipei expand its global networks. In 2022, TUPP was expanded to include young professionals from Europe in support of GMF’s mission of promoting transatlantic cooperation. TUPP enables future leaders to acquire a deeper understanding of Taiwan and its relations with the United States through meetings with officials and experts in Washington, DC, followed by a visit to Taiwan to gain first-hand exposure to its politics, culture, and history. Experiencing Taiwan influences how these future leaders approach their work and their writing. It impacts their worldview by imbuing them with an appreciation for Taiwan’s history and commitment to the principles of democracy and human rights that undergird the existing international order. It also reinforces the importance of maintaining robust bilateral relations and strengthening international support for maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. The 2024 TUPP cohort traveled to Taiwan in February for an intense week of meetings and activities. Each participant gained insights into Taiwan and its role in their respective fields. This year’s delegation comprised five Americans and five Europeans. Over time, TUPP seeks to create a body of global experts with firsthand knowledge of Taiwan who support sustaining and expanding its international ties. I am grateful to the Henry Luce Foundation, the Global Taiwan Institute, and the Taiwan Foundation for Democracy for their support of this goal. The contributions here, written by the entire 2024 TUPP delegation, underscore the importance of deeper study and understanding of Taiwan. I sincerely hope that they stimulate continued transatlantic and global interest in Taiwan and its future.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, European Union, Geopolitics, and Trade
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Taiwan, Asia, Poland, Germany, Latin America, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

4. Informe Iberoamérica 2024: El desafío de la seguridad para las democracias latinoamericanas

Author:
Lucía Dammert, Thiago Rodrigues, Dorly Castañeda, Erika Rodríguez Pinzón, and Matías Mongan Marcó
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Fundación Alternativas
Abstract:
Las crisis de inseguridad que vive América Latina se ha convertido en una amenaza real para nuestras democracias. La inseguridad ciudadana, exacerbada por el crimen organizado, el avance del narcotráfico y la violencia endémica no solo destruye vidas humanas y bienestar, sino que también erosiona la confianza en el Estado y sus instituciones. La impunidad, la corrupción y la ineficacia en la administración de la justicia crean un círculo vicioso que debilita las bases mismas de la democracia y de nuestro contrato social. Nuestro Informe Iberoamérica 2024 hace un repaso de varios asuntos centrales relativos a la actual crisis de seguridad ciudadana, incluyendo las transformaciones en el aparato policial, la economía política del narcotráfico, o el crecimiento del ciberdelito, y casos concretos como Ecuador o la frontera entre Colombia y Venezuela. España y Europa no son ajenas a este fenómeno y han empezado a tender puentes con la región para cooperar en múltiples aspectos. Con las próximas Cumbres Iberoamericana y UE-CELAC en el horizonte, invitamos a responsables políticos, expertos y agentes sociales a debatir y buscar soluciones conjuntas para Iberoamérica sobre este asunto fundamental.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Corruption, Democracy, and Organized Crime
Political Geography:
Latin America

5. Militarized Security and a Cartel Apology in Matamoros

Author:
Philip Luke Johnson
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
The abduction and murder of U.S. citizens in the border city of Matamoros is part of a larger pattern of violence with impunity by state and criminal actors.
Topic:
Security, Crime, War on Drugs, Narcotics Trafficking, Border Control, Impunity, Violence, and Militarization
Political Geography:
Latin America, North America, Mexico, and United States of America

6. Mexico’s domestic decay: Implications for the United States and Europe

Author:
Lauri Tahtinen
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) has challenged Mexico’s democratic institutions, including the electoral commission INE, and relies on the military to run sectors of the economy and to provide internal security. Recognizing the continuing strategic importance of its southern neighbor, the United States is attempting to “friend-shore” American industry to Mexico despite trade disputes. Mexico’s economic convergence with the US is giving way to ideological divergence. In the past year, Mexico has called NATO’s stance on Ukraine “immoral” and openly aligned with the leftist, anti-US dictators of Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela. Mexico’s internal development and shifting external stance could spark a return to a United States focused on the protection of its 19th-century borders instead of its 20th-century global footprint. European attention to the future of Mexico can help diversify the country’s trade and other partnerships, as well as shine a light on its democratic decay.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Democracy, Europe, and Economic Policy
Political Geography:
Europe, Latin America, North America, Mexico, and United States of America

7. Fighting Gangs Under the State of Exception in Honduras

Author:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
A year after the implementation of the state of exception on 6 December 2022, this report explores the evolution of violence likely related to gang activity between January and November 2023. ACLED data show that the security measures implemented thus far have yielded mixed results. Armed clashes and violence targeting civilians have continued unabated throughout 2023 due to persisting competition among gangs, especially in the country’s overcrowded prisons where violence has surged. Gangs continue to extort transportation workers in order to generate revenues, albeit the rate of these events has slowed down in 2023 compared to 2022. The geography of the violence points to gang violence moderately increasing and spreading beyond the crime hotspots of Tegucigalpa and San Pedro Sula. This finding substantiates claims that criminal groups have expanded to other strategic areas for drug trafficking and production, a phenomenon potentially exacerbated by state of exception measures and increased pressure on gangs in the most populous urban areas due to frequent law enforcement operations.
Topic:
Security, Law Enforcement, Violence, and Gangs
Political Geography:
Latin America and Honduras

8. Cost of Violence Study: Costa Rica

Author:
Andrés Fernández Arauz and Camelie Ilie
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:
Costa Rica faces an unprecedented challenge in the form of escalating violence concentrated within specific regions of the country. This report delves into the country’s administrative divisions, shedding light on its eighty-two cantons, where critical security data is localized. Recent statistics up to September 2023 underline a concerning situation. While violence in Costa Rica remains lower than the regional average for Latin America, it is the country in the region where violence has grown the most since 1995.
Topic:
Security, Violence, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:
Latin America, Central America, and Costa Rica

9. Informe Iberoamérica 2023

Author:
Marcos Criado De Diego, Daniel Gayo Lafée, Marisa Ramos Rollon, Erika Rodríguez Pinzón, Loreno Ruano, and José Antonio Sanahuja
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Fundación Alternativas
Abstract:
Hoy la realidad de los países que conforman la Asociación Estratégica entre la UE y la CELAC es completamente diferente. Si bien tomaron contacto en la última Cumbre Iberoamericana en República Dominicana, prevalecieron las fracturas y las diferencias entre países y posturas. Ambas regiones enfrentan un contexto desafiante. Ha aumentado el riesgo de fragmentación en bloques geopolíticos y económicos. América Latina y el Caribe están ante el dilema de pertenecer al hemisferio occidental o fortalecer su integración intrarregional. Europa con desafíos inéditos, ante una agenda influída totalmente por el conflicto entre Ucrania y Rusia con una fuerte desaceleración de su crecimiento a un magro 0,1% para 2023, con gastos militares crecientes para apoyar a Ucrania lo que implica dejar atrás otras prioridades de desarrollo y con dilemas sociales para preservar su sociedad de bienestar. América Latina y el Caribe por su parte, es hoy una región más desigual, más pobre, más endeudada, más polarizada y más desconfiada. Enfrenta múltiples crisis sufriendo los impactos del conflicto de Ucrania con altos niveles de inflación (7,7% en promedio) a pesar de que los precios de combustibles y alimentos parecen haber llegado a su límite. El impacto de la pandemia, la crisis climática, las disrupciones en las cadenas de suministro, el endurecimiento de las políticas monetarias y el financiamiento internacional y la deuda pública y privada y baja recaudación fiscal agobian hoy día a esta región. Los riesgos económicos han aumentado junto con la incertidumbre y el desencanto social generando mayor polarización política.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Climate Change, Inequality, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe and Latin America

10. Mapping the “Women, Peace and Security” agenda in Latin America: a comparison of the UN’s National Action Plans

Author:
Paula Drumond, Tamya Rebelo, Isa Mendes, and Ana Velasco
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
BRICS Policy Center
Abstract:
Adopted on October 31, 2000 by the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), Resolution 1325 has since then been one of the main references for the development, strengthening, and expansion of policies aimed at promoting gender equality, giving rise to the so-called Women Peace and Security (WPS) agenda. This Policy Brief aims to map and systematize the diffusion of the WPS agenda in Latin America. This analysis aims to reflect on the contours of the agenda in the region and deepen the understanding of how Latin American countries engage with this global normative framework. Based on an analysis of the National Action Plans (NAPs) adopted so far by countries in the region (Chile, Argentina, Paraguay, Brazil, El Salvador, Guatemala and Mexico), the work reveals how the agenda is being adopted in these different contexts, seeking to identify existing convergences and particularities. The mapping and analysis of the NAPs are organized around three main aspects: (i) their elaboration process and the actors involved; (ii) the content, objectives, and measures adopted; and (iii) implementation and monitoring strategies. The goal is to offer a general diagnosis of the national engagements with the agenda, summarizing the main advances, limitations, and recommendations to promote its implementation in the region.
Topic:
Security, Development, United Nations, Women, Peace, and Equality
Political Geography:
Latin America