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11. Democratization and Other Civil War Legacies in Central America

Author:
Fabrice Lehoucq
Publication Date:
02-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
This paper analyzes the impact of civil war on regime change. It focuses on Central America, a region where several countries underwent transitions to democracy in the wake of civil war during the second half of the twentieth century. It argues that armed conflict, not increasing levels of economic development, led to political change. Violence liquidated stubbornly resilient autocracies in El Salvador and Nicaragua, catalyzed the democratization of Costa Rican politics, and was the backdrop to regime liberalization in Guatemala. Postwar negotiations, at a time when Cold War bipolarity was ending, led to the establishment of more open, civilian regimes on the isthmus. This paper also notes that the transition from autocracy was enormously costly in both lives and economic well-being, which helps to explain why political change has given birth to low-quality democracies or mixed regimes on the isthmus, ones that also have witnessed the explosion of criminal and drug-related violence.
Topic:
Civil War, Crime, Democratization, Development, Regime Change, and Narcotics Trafficking
Political Geography:
Latin America

12. Violence in Latin America: FSR Interviews Mónica Serrano

Author:
Mónica Serrano
Publication Date:
07-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Fletcher Security Review
Institution:
The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:
Mónica Serrano is Professor of International Relations at El Colegio de México, Senior Research Associate at the Centre for International Studies, Oxford University and a Senior Fellow at the Ralph Bunche Institute for International Studies, CUNY. Between 2008 and 2011, as Executive Director of the Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect, she worked closely with the UN and other human rights organizations to build momentum behind an emerging international norm to prevent mass atrocities. Dr. Serrano has written extensively on international security, and on the international relations of Latin America, with particular reference to international institutions, security, human rights, transnational crime and civil-military relations.
Topic:
Crime, Globalization, Law Enforcement, Financial Crimes, Violence, Interview, International Crime, and Responsibility to Protect (R2P)
Political Geography:
Colombia, Latin America, and Mexico

13. Will elections in El Salvador create a narcostate?

Author:
Roger F. Noriega
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
El Salvador will choose a new president in a runoff election on March 9. The nation's decision may prove critical to Salvadoran democracy and regional security, in light of substantial evidence linking the ruling party candidate to narcotraffickers, terrorist groups, and violent street gangs. Moreover, foreign interference in the form of billions of dollars in Venezuelan oil revenues has given the ruling party an advantage, despite the fact that its economic policies have increased poverty and stunted economic growth.
Topic:
Corruption, Crime, Democratization, and Narcotics Trafficking
Political Geography:
Latin America

14. Scarcity without Leviathan: The Violent Effects of Cocaine Supply Shortages in the Mexican Drug War

Author:
Juan Camilo Castillo, Daniel Mejia, and Pascual Restrepo
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Using the case of the cocaine trade in Mexico as a relevant and salient example, this paper shows that scarcity leads to violence in markets without third party enforcement. We construct a model in which supply shortages increase total revenue when demand is inelastic. If property rights over revenues are not well defined because of the lack of reliable third party enforcement, the incentives to prey on others and avoid predation by exercising violence increase with scarcity, thus increasing violence. We test our model and the proposed channel using data for the cocaine trade in Mexico. We found that exogenous supply shocks originated in changes in the amount of cocaine seized in Colombia (Mexico's main cocaine supplier) create scarcity and increase drug-related violence in Mexico.
Topic:
Crime, Economics, War on Drugs, Narcotics Trafficking, and Law Enforcement
Political Geography:
Colombia, Latin America, and Mexico

15. Is Anyone Listening? Does US Foreign Assistance Target People's Top Priorities?

Author:
Benjamin Leo
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
The United States government has made repeated declarations over the last decade to align its assistance programs behind developing countries' priorities. By utilizing public attitude surveys for 42 African and Latin American countries, this paper examines how well the US has implemented this guiding principle. Building upon the Quality of Official Development Assistance Assessment (QuODA) approach, I identify what people cite most frequently as the 'most pressing problems' facing their nations and then measure the percentage of US assistance commitments that are directed towards addressing them. By focusing on public surveys over time, this analysis attempts to provide a more nuanced and targeted examination of whether US portfolios are addressing what people care the most about. As reference points, I compare US alignment trends with the two regional multilateral development banks (MDBs) – the African Development Bank and the Inter-American Development Bank. Overall, this analysis suggests that US assistance may be only modestly aligned with what people in Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America cite as their nation's most pressing problems. By comparison, the African Development Bank – which is majority-led by regional member nations – performs significantly better than the United States. Like the United States, however, the Inter-American Development Bank demonstrates a low relative level of support for people's top concerns.
Topic:
Security, Crime, Development, Economics, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, America, and Latin America

16. Illicit Americas: Historical Dynamics of Smuggling in U.S. Relations with Its Neighbors

Author:
Peter Andreas
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University
Abstract:
The proliferation of illicit cross-border flows in the Americas—ranging from unauthorized migrant workers and psychoactive substances to arms and dirty money—is often portrayed as an alarming and unprecedented challenge to borders and government authority in the region.1 Policing such border flows has also become an increasingly prominent (and sometimes highly divisive) issue in U.S. relations with its neighbors, as Washington has pushed for tighter border controls and more intensive crackdowns on smuggling.
Topic:
Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Crime, Migration, Narcotics Trafficking, and Border Control
Political Geography:
United States, America, Washington, Latin America, and North America

17. Honduras under siege

Author:
Roger F. Noriega and José Javier Lanza
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
As stepped-up counternarcotics policies in Colombia and Mexico have increased pressure on regional drug trafficking networks, organized crime syndicates have relocated operations to Central America, where law enforcement agencies and institutions are ill-equipped to withstand the onslaught. These multibillion-dollar gangs are making common cause with some local politicians who are following a playbook honed by Hugo Chávez in Venezuela. The result in Venezuela was the birth of a narcostate, and similar dramas are playing out in Central America. Like Chávez, caudillos are using the democratic process to seek power, weaken institutions, and undermine the rule of law—generating turmoil that accommodates narcotrafficking. Making matters worse for Honduras is that left-wing activists abroad, in support of ousted president and Chávez acolyte Manuel Zelaya, are waging a very public campaign of outlandish claims seeking to block any US assistance to help the Honduran government resist the drug cartels. It is imperative that US policymakers vigorously support democracy, the rule of law, and antidrug programs in Honduras.
Topic:
Corruption, Crime, Democratization, War on Drugs, Narcotics Trafficking, and Fragile/Failed State
Political Geography:
America, Latin America, and Mexico

18. Justice on trial in Guatemala: The Ríos Montt Case

Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Within ten days, Guatemalan courts made and unmade legal history. The trial and conviction of former dictator José Efraín Ríos Montt on 10 May 2013 for genocide and other human rights violations was an extraordinary achievement for a justice system that must grapple simultaneously with the legacy of a vicious internal conflict and the contemporary scourges of gang violence, corruption and illegal drug trafficking. Victims had barely finished celebrating, however, when the Constitutional Court annulled the verdict in a confusing decision that raised questions of outside interference. Widespread impunity for past and present violence continues to have a corrosive effect on the country's democracy. Failure to renew the trial for mass atrocities against Ríos Montt and pursue justice for the victims of violent crime would undermine its halting progress toward rule of law, including a strong independent judiciary.
Topic:
Corruption, Crime, Genocide, Human Rights, Narcotics Trafficking, and Law
Political Geography:
Latin America and Guatemala

19. Dangerous Work: Violence Against Mexico's Journalists and Lessons from Colombia

Author:
Douglas Farah
Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:
The job of Mexican journalists covering drug trafficking and organized crime along the Mexico- U.S. border has regularly been called the most dangerous job in the world. And the danger has spread from journalists for traditional media to bloggers and citizens who post reports on drug cartel violence through social media such as Twitter and Facebook. The danger is not just from drug cartels, however. Journalists often identified local politicians and police– frequently in the pay of the cartels– as the source of most of the threats.
Topic:
Political Violence, Crime, Mass Media, and Narcotics Trafficking
Political Geography:
Colombia, Latin America, and Mexico

20. Countering Criminal Violence in Central America

Author:
Michael Shifter
Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Central America is increasingly beset by spreading criminal violence. In the northern triangle—Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala—insecurity is particularly severe and widespread. In 2010, these countries ranked among the highest homicide rates (per one hundred thousand people) in the world: Honduras with eighty-two, El Salvador with sixty- six, and Guatemala with forty-one; in comparison, the homicide rate in the United States was less than five. The toll has been considerable, tallying nearly seventeen thousand murders in the northern triangle in 2011 and showing no signs of abating. The other four Central American states have also witnessed both heightened domestic insecurity and rising rates of crime and violence.
Topic:
Political Violence, Corruption, Crime, War on Drugs, and Narcotics Trafficking
Political Geography:
Latin America and Central America