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231. Unifying The Kosovar Factions: The Way Forward

Publication Date:
03-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The Kosovo peace talks, held at Rambouillet (France) under the auspices of the sixnation Contact Group, have been suspended until 15 March 1999 after a provisional agreement was reached on granting substantial autonomy for Kosovo. However, neither the Kosovo Albanians nor Serbian delegates have yet signed the draft peace accord, which calls for a NATO peacekeeping mission in Kosovo, and in which the "final status" issue has been deliberately fudged. The immense complexities of the Kosovo question were dramatically illustrated at Rambouillet by the last-minute refusal of the Albanian delegation to sign the accord, due to pressure from a hardline faction of the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA) which refused to attend the talks.
Topic:
International Relations, Ethnic Conflict, Politics, Treaties and Agreements, and War
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Serbia

232. Kosovo: The Road To Peace Critical Implementation Issues And a "Who's Who" of Key Players

Publication Date:
03-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
While last spring saw conflict erupt in Kosovo's central Drenica region when Serbian security forces attacked and killed residents of the villages of Prekaz and Likoshan, this spring brings the possibility of peace. The proposed deployment of a 28,000-strong international force for Kosovo will dramatically and immediately halt the sporadic low-intensity battles between Serbian security forces and ethnic Albanian rebels that have displaced 300,000 people. This peace will allow refugees to return to their homes, and provide the day-to-day sense of security on the ground that will enable Kosovo's transition to self-government.
Topic:
International Relations, Ethnic Conflict, Politics, Treaties and Agreements, and War
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Serbia

233. Too Little Too Late: Implementation of the Sarajevo Declaration

Publication Date:
09-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Sarajevo's Bosniac authorities were given the opportunity to demonstrate their much-vaunted commitment to multi-ethnicity when, on 3 February 1998, representatives of the state of Bosnia and Herzegovina (Bosnia), the Federation of Bosnia Herzegovina (Federation), Sarajevo Canton and the international community adopted the Sarajevo Declaration. The Declaration stressed the importance of the Bosnian capital “as a model of coexistence and tolerance for the rest of the country” and made it clear that: “The international community will condition continuation of assistance for Sarajevo on fulfilment of the benchmarks set out in this Declaration and on adequate progress toward meeting the 1998 goal of at least 20,000 minority returns.”
Topic:
Demographics, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Yugoslavia, and Serbia

234. Conflict in Kosovo: Failure of Prevention? An Analytical Documentation, 1992-1998.

Author:
Stefan Troebst
Publication Date:
05-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Centre for Minority Issues
Abstract:
Not too much of inside knowledge of the Balkans was needed to realise that the winter of 1997/98 turned the formerly autonomous Yugoslav province of Kosovo inhabited predominantly by Albanians into one of the most violent-prone crisis zones in Europe. In September 1997, a massive protest movement of Albanian students gained momentum; from November 1997 on, an underground "Liberation Army of Kosovo" (UÇK)) with an estimated strength of several hundred fighters increased the number of attacks on and assassinations of Serbian officials and police officers; and the regime retaliated first by police violence, show trials, long-term sentences, and nationalist tirades, then by bringing more and more security forces into the central part of Kosovo. In January 1998, The Economist depicted Kosovo as "Europe's roughest neighbourhood”.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Ethnic Conflict, and International Organization
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Serbia, Balkans, and Albania

235. MILOSEVIC: DÉJÀ VU ALL OVER AGAIN?

Publication Date:
12-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
In the past few weeks the Belgrade authorities have sacked a number of key public officials. The two most prominent were security chief Stanisic and head of the army general staff Perisic. The firings triggered much speculation in the international media about the stability of Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic's regime. According to one interpretation, the sackings signal a fundamental weakness in government ranks, with Milosevic moving pre-emptively to oust potential rivals to his authority. Alternatively, the sackings may represent an attempt by the Yugoslav President to further consolidate his power base and to effectively rule with the backing of Yugoslavia's military and security establishments. Both Stanisic and Perisic were seen as Milosevic's opponents on several key policies, notably Belgrade's handling of relations with the Kosovo Albanians. Both Perisic and Stanisic, reportedly moderates not favouring the use of severe force against the Kosovars, have been replaced by Milosevic "yes-men" regarded as proponents of a violent resolution of the Kosovo question. If this is even in part the case, Stanisic's and Perisic's sackings do not necessary reflect a weakness in Milosevic's rule. Instead, the sackings may only signal Milosevic's resolve to return to force as a means of regional problem solving.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Yugoslavia

236. Intermediate Sovereignty As A Basis For Resolving The Kosovo Crisis

Publication Date:
11-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The International Crisis Group has decided to publish the report, prepared by the Public International Law and Policy Group, as a contribution to the debate on the future status of Kosovo. The views expressed in the paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the position of the International Crisis Group.
Topic:
Economics, Politics, and Sovereignty
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Kosovo

237. Kosovo's Long Hot Summer: Briefing on military, humanitarian and political developments in Kosovo

Publication Date:
09-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
During the past six months, Serbia's southern, predominantly Albanian province of Kosovo has emerged from international obscurity to become the world's most reported conflict zone. That said, the history of ethnic animosity in this contested land, the complexity of competing Serb and Albanian claims and the speed with which the fighting has escalated make it difficult to keep up with the events, let alone analyse and try to understand them. What had, on 1 January 1998, been a long-standing ethnic Albanian political aspiration, namely an independent Kosovo, had evolved, by 1 March 1998, into the military objective of a popular insurrection and had by, 1 July 1998, become part of the cause of an impending humanitarian catastrophe with hundreds of thousands of people displaced by the fighting.
Topic:
International Relations, Human Rights, and Politics
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Serbia, and Albania

238. The Albanian Question In Macedonia: Implications of the Kosovo Conflict for Inter-Ethnic Relations in Macedonia

Publication Date:
08-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
As the one former Yugoslav republic which has managed to keep itself out of the wars of Yugoslav dissolution, Macedonia has often appeared to outsiders as a beacon of hope in the Balkans. However, inter-ethnic relations in the young state -- in particular those between ethnic Albanians, who make up at least 23 percent of the population, and ethnic Macedonians -- are poor. Moreover, as fighting between ethnic Albanian separatists and the Serbian police and military escalates in the neighbouring, southern Serbian province of Kosovo, relations between communities within Macedonia are deteriorating alarmingly. As a result, Macedonia and its entire population, irrespective of their ethnic origins, stand to be among the greatest long-term losers of the Kosovo conflict. Moreover, in the event of fighting and large numbers of refugees spilling over from Kosovo -- an entirely plausible eventuality unless the killing is halted -- Macedonia is poorly prepared and the country's very existence may be imperilled.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, NATO, Education, Ethnic Conflict, Politics, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Yugoslavia, Serbia, Balkans, Macedonia, and Albania

239. A View from Tirana: The Albanian Dimension of Kosovo Crisis

Publication Date:
07-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Relations between Albanians from Albania proper and their ethnic kin over the border in Kosovo are complex. Despite obvious linguistic and cultural ties, the political division of the past 80 years and Albania's isolation during the communist period have caused the two communities to evolve in a very different fashion. Moreover, the arrival of Kosovo Albanians in Albania in recent years and their influence in some unsavoury spheres of the economy have caused resentment among Albanians from Albania proper, most of whom are too preoccupied with the daily struggle for existence to devote much time or thought to national questions. The upsurge in violence in Kosovo and the influx of several thousand Kosovo Albanian refugees have, nevertheless, reminded Albanians of the links between the communities and sympathy for their ethnic kin in Kosovo is especially strong in the border areas among the Ghegs, the northern Albanians.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Arms Control and Proliferation, Ethnic Conflict, and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Albania, and Tirana

240. Inventory of a Windfall: Milosevic's Gains from the Kosovo Dialogue

Publication Date:
05-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
When on 15 May 1998 Slobodan Milosevic met with Ibrahim Rugova it was the first time that the Yugoslav president had met with an Albanian leader from Kosovo in close to a decade. The event, heralding weekly talks between Kosovo's Albanians and the Serbian government, has thus been hailed as a "dramatic turn-about" and "a first step toward peace in Kosovo". However, the fact that, after so many years of stale-mate, some kind of negotiations have begun, should not in itself be a reason for euphoria. Key to the success of any talks is the framework within which they take place. Negotiations concerning the future status of Kosovo may, as a result of the concessions offered to the Yugoslav president, have got off to an inauspicious start.
Topic:
International Relations, Diplomacy, Economics, Ethnic Conflict, and Politics
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Yugoslavia