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101. Will the Real Serbia Please Stand Up?

Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Kosovo's independence declaration on 17 February 2008 sent shock waves through Serbia's politics and society, polarising the former in a manner not seen since the Milosevic era. Rio ting led to attacks on nine Western embassies, destruction of foreign property and massive looting. The government fell on 10 March, split over whether to pursue a nationalist or pro-Western path. Belgrade's efforts to create a de facto partitioning of the north of Kosovo threaten the new state's territorial integrity and challenge deployment of European Union (EU) missions there, and Serbian parliamentary and local elections on 11 May are unlikely to change the basic policy towards the new state, even in the unlikely event a pro-Western government comes to power. They may, however, well give Serbia's nationalist parties new leverage.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Nationalism, and Sovereignty
Political Geography:
Kosovo, Serbia, and Balkans

102. Will the Real Serbia Please Stand Up?

Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Kosovo's independence declaration on 17 February 2008 sent shock waves through Serbia's politics and society, polarising the former in a manner not seen since the Milosevic era. Rioting led to attacks on nine Western embassies, destruction of foreign property and massive looting. The government fell on 10 March, split over whether to pursue a nationalist or pro-Western path. Belgrade's efforts to create a de facto partitioning of the north of Kosovo threaten the new state's territorial integrity and challenge deployment of European Union (EU) missions there, and Serbian parliamentary and local elections on 11 May are unlikely to change the basic policy towards the new state, even in the unlikely event a pro-Western government comes to power. They may, however, well give Serbia's nationalist parties new leverage.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Nationalism, and Sovereignty
Political Geography:
Europe, Kosovo, Serbia, and Balkans

103. Georgia and Russia: Clashing over Abkhazia

Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
With the dispute between Georgia and Russia in a new, dangerously confrontational phase, the risk of war in the South Caucasus is growing. Concerned by NATO's plans for further extension to former Soviet republics and Kosovo's unilateral but Western-orchestrated independence, Russia has stepped up manipulation of the South Ossetia and Abkhazia conflicts. Georgia remains determined to restore its territorial integrity, and hawks in Tbilisi are seriously considering a military option. Both sides need to recognise the risks in current policies, cool their rhetoric and cease military preparations. Russia should cease undermining its peacekeeper and mediator roles and be open to a change of negotiating formats. Georgia should adopt a new approach to the Abkhaz, encouraging their links to the outside world to lessen dependence on Russia and emphasising incremental con­­fidence building to establish the mutual trust needed for successful negotiations. The U.S. and European Union (EU) should be firm and united in cautioning both Moscow and Tbilisi against military adventures.
Topic:
International Relations, NATO, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Asia, Soviet Union, Kosovo, Georgia, and Tbilisi

104. A New Power Play in the Balkans: Kosovo's Independence

Author:
Enika Abazi
Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Insight Turkey
Institution:
SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:
This article discusses Kosovo's independence from a framework of political and legal perspectives and assesses regional and global responses to the declaration of independence. Kosovo's independence, it is argued, has revealed shifting strategic landscapes, security concerns and domestic developments in regional and international politics with significant implications for all actors in the region. Russia, for instance, calculated to restore its lost 'superpower' status and control Serbia's strategic oil industries while Turkey's prompt recognition of independence has increased its impact in the region. Kosovo's independence will be a test case for keeping peace and stability in the Balkans within the new dynamics of regional and international politics. The way to escape from regional and international rivalries in Kosovo and its environs is to enhance the forces of cooperation in this volatile region and avoid zero sum games among regional and international actors.
Topic:
International Relations, International Political Economy, and Oil
Political Geography:
Russia, Turkey, Kosovo, and Balkans

105. Legality and Legitimacy in International Order

Author:
Vesselin Popovski and Nicholas Turner
Publication Date:
05-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The 1999 NATO armed intervention over Kosovo was illegal under international law, but widely regarded as legitimate. The 2003 US invasion of Iraq was both illegal and illegitimate, though unilateral attempts were made to legitimize it, using the Kosovo precedent. The sanctions against Iraq, preceding the 2003 invasion, were legal, but seen by many as illegitimate. These examples are symptomatic of a wider disconnect between legality and legitimacy which affects many areas of international life. Legality is not the only criteria for determining acceptable state behaviour. Other criteria—humanitarian, ethical and political—play a significant role in modern international relations. Ignorance of international law has serious negative consequences, but so has the blind reliance on international law, detached from human aspirations and actual circumstances.
Topic:
International Law
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, and Kosovo

106. Five Lessons from Kosovo's "Independence"

Author:
Vladimir Kozin
Publication Date:
08-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Affairs: A Russian Journal of World Politics, Diplomacy and International Relations
Institution:
East View Information Services
Abstract:
The unilateral declaration, on February 17, 2008, of the "independence" of Kosovo, an inseparable part of Serbia, which was literally pushed through by the leading Western countries, set an extremely dangerous precedent for the entire system of international relations and has already complicated the military-political situation not only in the western Balkans but also in other areas. Several instructive lessons could be drawn from this ill-considered step.
Topic:
Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
Kosovo and Serbia

107. Fragile States

Author:
Mark McGillivray, Wim Naudé, and Amelia U. Santos-Paulino
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Many of the world's poorest countries can be described as “fragile states” wherein governments cannot or will not provide an environment for households to reduce, mitigate or cope with poverty and other risks to well-being. Many of these states are in conflict or just emerging from conflict. The UNU-WIDER project “Fragility and Development” explored state fragility and its relationship to household vulnerability, noting that there is a lack of research on the economic dimensions of conflict, aid and development in fragile states. This research brief provides a summary of the various contributions made by this project, including case studies on Iraq, Kosovo, Palestine and Somalia. It also addresses a number of pertinent questions. When are states fragile? What are the costs that fragile states impose on their people and the international community? Should the sovereignty of fragile states be reconsidered? And how can aid flows to fragile states be made more effective?
Topic:
Government, Politics, Post Colonialism, and Political Theory
Political Geography:
Iraq, Palestine, Kosovo, and Somalia

108. Negotiating the final status of Kosovo

Author:
Marc Weller
Publication Date:
12-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:
When two express trains race towards one another on a single-track line, there is not much room for compromise. Either one side gives up and selects reverse gear in a hurry, or there is an almighty crash. This is how self-determination conflicts outside of the colonial context have traditionally been resolved. The secessionist entity either renounces its claim to independence, or a violent conflict ensues. The conflict will continue, often for decades, until those invoking the right to self-determination have been crushed or have given up.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, NATO, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
Kosovo and Balkans

109. The End of Happy Endings in the Post-Cold War

Publication Date:
09-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
European Affairs
Institution:
The European Institute
Abstract:
All this year the EU has been grappling with challenges coming from its periphery: Kosovo's fate, Turkey's evolution, and immigration flows north across the Mediterranean. The idea of closer ties among all the countries around the Med was an ambitious attempt to come to grips with the southern problems. The war in Georgia demonstrated that there are hotter issues for the EU to the east.
Topic:
International Relations and Cold War
Political Geography:
Turkey, Kosovo, and Georgia

110. Recalibrating EU Policy towards the Western Balkans

Author:
Michael Emerson
Publication Date:
10-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
The time is not only ripe but pressing for the EU and the states of the Western Balkans to recalibrate and reinforce the current pre-accession strategy. Trade policy should be moved beyond existing free trade commitments for all the Western Balkans to enter the customs union of the EU and Turkey. Eurozone doctrine should be adapted to realities. Rather than regarding the use of the euro by Montenegro and Kosovo as an unfortunate turn of events, the costs and benefits of unilateral adoption of the euro by not-yet member states of the region should be more openly appraised, and the option to 'euroise' recognised as a possibility. It is good that the EU has moved at the declaratory level toward s visa 'liberalisation', which means scrapping visas rather than just 'facilitation' measures. However the Commission has not yet published guidelines or timelines for this. The region should be put on track for access to the Structural Funds on terms and scales progressively approaching those from which new member states such as Bulgaria and Romania already benefit. The ratio of these aid receipts between the new member states and the Western Balkans is currently 4:1; the former are receiving more than they can handle efficiently, whereas the Western Balkans have huge unsatisfied needs. Overall the case is made for significant moves towards 'functional membership' of the whole of the region with the EU, which would be a highly useful advance, irrespective of how or when the EU overcomes its Lisbon Treaty hiatus.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Kosovo, Bulgaria, Balkans, Romania, and Lisbon