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192. Beware of Imitators: al-Qa`ida through the lens of its Confi dential Secretary
- Author:
- Nelly Lahoud
- Publication Date:
- 06-2012
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
- Abstract:
- “I should write a history of the jihadis in my time as I witnessed it and not as it is perceived by the West or those who disagree with us,” explains Fadil Harun regarding his motivation to publish his two-volume manuscript al-Harb `ala al-Islam: Qissat Fadil Harun (The War against Islam: the Story of Fadil Harun). The spirit driving Harun’s manuscript is to produce a corrective history of al-Qa`ida distinguishing it from jihadi groups acting in its name. He believed that unlike al-Qa`ida, many jihadi groups have deviated from the true path of jihad: they lack a sound ideological worldview and many of their operations, particularly those which involved resorting to “tatarrus” (i.e., the use of non-combatants as human shields), are in breach of what he deems to be “lawful jihad.” This report is a study of al-Qa`ida’s ideology, organizational structure, strengths and weaknesses through Harun’s lens and in light of captured battlefield documents.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Al Qaeda, and Ideology
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Kenya, Africa, Tanzania, and Somalia
193. Micro-Level Analysis of Civil Violence: An Event Data Analysis of Kenya, Georgia-Russia, and Mexico
- Author:
- Kevin Jones
- Publication Date:
- 08-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM)
- Abstract:
- Research on civil violence and political instability has yielded important baseline information about the conditions that have the potential to increase risks for mass violence, political instability, or state failure. Limits on data collection, analysis, and interpretation immediately before and during outbreaks of conflict, however, constrain analysts from identifying which conflict-prone country will descend into political instability or violence in time for a targeted intervention or effective response. This paper presents a conceptual framework for analyzing the heterogeneous and dynamic character of local conflict. This work is anchored in the need to describe conflict dynamics as they occur, to understand in real-time the political, economic, and social drivers and to gather high-resolution (e.g. local, disaggregated) data to analyze social instability. The paper demonstrates the effectiveness of such a framework and applies it to three case studies: the Kenyan presidential election of 2007, the Georgia-South Ossetian war in 2008, and the Mexico drug wars in 2010. The case-study results suggest that the analysis of high-resolution event data immediately prior to two of the conflicts could have enabled early detection and warning of the potential for large-scale civil violence. The third case provides retrospective analytical insight into local conflict dynamics. This paper argues that in an era of non-state actors, emergent conflict, and natural resource pressures, a new conceptual approach to event data collection and analytical process can provide low-cost, near real-time monitoring and evaluation of ongoing and potential conflicts in multiple languages and regions.
- Topic:
- Conflict, Instability, and Civil Violence
- Political Geography:
- Kenya, Africa, Russia, Georgia, and Mexico
194. African dynamics at the climate change negotiations
- Author:
- Jean-Christophe Hoste and Andrew Anderson
- Publication Date:
- 11-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
- Abstract:
- The climate change negotiations in Cancun saved the multilateral negotiation process under the UNFCCC, but what were the African political dynamics at the negotiations? In this Africa policy brief the international climate change negotiations are analysed as a “political marketplace” where international, regional and national agendas meet and have an impact that goes far beyond the theme of the negotiations. It addresses three questions to understand the African political processes at the climate negotiations. First, why did the African Union endorse the Copenhagen Accord after COP 15? Second, why was Kenya so active in the high-level segment of the negotiations in Cancun? Third, what could South Africa do to bring the negotiations forward in Durban?
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Globalization, International Cooperation, Politics, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Kenya, Africa, South Africa, and Durban
195. Letter to the Editor: Securing Justice in Kenya
- Author:
- Albert Muriuki
- Publication Date:
- 01-2011
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Foreign Affairs
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- John Githongo's article "Fear and Loathing in Nairobi" (July/August 2010) failed to mention one institution that is keeping Kenya's elite in check: the International Criminal Court (ICC), which is trying to bring justice to millions of Kenyans affected by the postelection violence of 2007-8.
- Topic:
- Corruption and Law
- Political Geography:
- Kenya
196. Public and Elite Views on Europe vs. China in Africa
- Author:
- Lorenzo Fioramonti and Patrick Kimunguyi
- Publication Date:
- 03-2011
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The International Spectator
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Europe has been the privileged economic and political partner of Africa, but more recently China has increased its foothold in Africa through important financial investments and trade agreements. Against this backdrop, the empirical research conducted in 2007-08 in Kenya and South Africa as part of a pioneering international project investigates the perceptions of public opinion, political leaders, civil society activists and media operators. While confirming their continent's traditional proximity to Europe, African citizens are increasingly interested in China and its impact on Africa's development. Europe is criticised for not having been able to dismiss the traditionally 'patronising' attitude towards Africa. While African civil society leaders and media operators describe China as an opportunity for Africa to break free of its historical dependence on European markets, other opinion leaders warn against too much enthusiasm for the Asian giant. There is a suspicion that the Chinese strategy might, in the long run, turn into a new form of economic patronage.
- Topic:
- Civil Society and Economics
- Political Geography:
- Kenya, Africa, China, Europe, Asia, and South Africa
197. Walking the Talk: Cash transfers and gender dynamics
- Author:
- Carol Brady
- Publication Date:
- 05-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Oxfam Publishing
- Abstract:
- Concern Worldwide (Concern) and Oxfam GB (Oxfam) jointly commissioned this report to look at the impacts of cash transfers (CTs) on gender dynamics both within households and communities. This report was commissioned because of the agencies' concerns that while CTs, now being used in many different emergency contexts, are expected to benefit women and contribute towards their empowerment, there was little evidence being collected to see whether this was in fact happening. The learning from this report will inform future gender sensitive CT programmes.
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, Gender Issues, and Food
- Political Geography:
- Kenya, Indonesia, and Zimbabwe
198. How Neopatrimonialism Affects Tax Administration: A Comparative Study of Three World Regions
- Author:
- Christian von Soest, Karsten Bechle, and Nina Korte
- Publication Date:
- 07-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- German Institute of Global and Area Studies
- Abstract:
- Neopatrimonialism is a concept that has predominately been applied to describe governance in sub-Saharan Africa. Recently, though, it has also been used to describe states from other world regions. However, scholars have rarely attempted to systematically compare neopatrimonial rule in different regional settings. This paper aims to narrow this gap by examining the effect of neopatrimonialism on the tax administration as a core state function in six countries from three different world regions: Argentina, Venezuela, Indonesia, the Philippines, Kenya and Zambia. We conclude that neopatrimonialism is a valuable concept for comparative area studies with the potential to foster dialogue on the "state in operation" across the regional divide. However, several indicators are more valid for some world regions than for others. We find that there is no systematic relationship between neopatrimonial trajectories and the strength of tax administration. Individual actor decisions influence the outcomes of neopatrimonialism substantially.
- Topic:
- Post Colonialism and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Kenya, Indonesia, Asia, Argentina, Philippines, Latin America, Venezuela, and Zambia
199. East Africa Food Crisis: Poor rains, poor response
- Author:
- Elise Ford
- Publication Date:
- 07-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxfam Publishing
- Abstract:
- East Africa is facing the worst food crisis of the 21st Century. Across Ethiopia, Somalia, and Kenya, 12 million people are in dire need of food, clean water, and basic sanitation. Loss of life on a massive scale is a very real risk, and the crisis is set to worsen over the coming months, particularly for pastoralist communities.
- Topic:
- Security, Agriculture, Humanitarian Aid, United Nations, and Food
- Political Geography:
- Kenya, Africa, Ethiopia, and Somalia
200. Korea, Colombia, Panama: Pending Trade Accords Offer Economic and Strategic Gains for the United States
- Author:
- Mauricio Cá¡rdenas and Joshua Meltzer
- Publication Date:
- 07-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- A trio of trade agreements now pending before Congress would benefit the United States both economically and strategically. Carefully developed accords with South Korea, Colombia and Panama will boost U.S. exports significantly, especially in the key automotive, agricultural and commercial services sectors. Among the other benefits are: increased U.S. competitiveness enhancement of U.S. diplomatic and economic postures in East Asia and Latin America new investment opportunities better enforcement of labor regulation and improved transparency in these trading partners' regulatory systems.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, and Labor Issues
- Political Geography:
- Kenya, United States, Israel, Colombia, and Latin America