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122. Election Forensics Toolkit and Guide
- Author:
- Allen Hicken and Walter Mebane
- Publication Date:
- 07-2017
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute of International Education (IIE)
- Abstract:
- There is an acute need for methods of detecting and investigating fraud in elections, because the consequences of electoral fraud are grave for democratic stability and quality. When the electoral process is compromised by fraud, intimidation, or even violence, elections can become corrosive and destabilizing—sapping support for democratic institutions; inflaming suspicion; and stimulating demand for extra-constitutional means of pursuing political agendas, including violence. Accurate information about irregularities can help separate false accusations from evidence of electoral malfeasance. Accurate information about the scope of irregularities can also provide a better gauge of election quality. Finally, accurate information about the geographic location of malfeasance—the locations where irregularities occurred and how they cluster—can allow election monitors and pro-democracy organizations to focus attention and resources more efficiently and to substantiate their assessments of electoral quality. Election forensics is an emerging field in which scholars use a diverse set of statistical tools—including techniques similar to those developed to detect financial fraud—to analyze numerical electoral data and detect where patterns deviate from those that should occur naturally, following demonstrated mathematical principles. Numbers that humans have manipulated present patterns that are unlikely to occur if produced by a natural process—such as free and fair elections or normal commercial transactions. These deviations suggest either that the numbers were intentionally altered or that other factors—such as a range of normal strategic voting practices—influenced the electoral results. The greater the number of statistical tests that identify patterns that deviate from what is expected to naturally occur, the more likely that the deviation results from fraud rather than legal strategic voting. Through a Research and Innovation Grant funded by USAID’s Center of Excellence on Democracy, Human Rights, and Governance under the Democracy Fellows and Grants Program, a research team from the University of Michigan, led by Professors Walter Mebane and Allen Hicken, built an innovative online tool, the Election Forensics Toolkit, that allows researchers and practitioners to conduct complex statistical analysis on detailed, localized data produced through the electoral process. The Election Forensics Toolkit presents results in a variety of ways—including detailed country maps showing “hot spots” of potential fraud—that allow practitioners not only to see where electoral fraud may have occurred but also the probability that the disturbances in the election data that the statistical analyses detect are attributable to fraud, rather than to other cultural or political influences, such as gerrymandering or geographic distribution of voting constituencies, among others. The team also produced two publications under the DFG grant: a Guide to Election Forensics and a more detailed Elections Forensics Toolkit DRG Center Working Paper. The Guide provides a more general introduction to election forensics as a field, and the DRG Center Working Paper focuses on presenting in detail the results of applying election forensics to specific elections in Afghanistan, Albania, Bangladesh, Cambodia, Kenya, Libya, South Africa, and Uganda
- Topic:
- Corruption, Politics, Elections, Democracy, Election watch, and USAID
- Political Geography:
- Uganda, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Kenya, Libya, South Africa, Cambodia, Albania, and Global Focus
123. Isolation and Endurance: Riek Machar and the SPLM-IO in 2016-17
- Author:
- John Young
- Publication Date:
- 10-2017
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Small Arms Survey
- Abstract:
- Isolation and Endurance: Riek Machar and the SPLM-IO in 2016-17 follows on from an earlier Small Arms Survey paper by the author (Young, 2015). It begins where the earlier paper left off with the signing of the ARCSS and ends with the first anniversary of the agreement’s collapse in July 2017. Like the earlier study, this research is based on many visits by the author and his assistant to Juba, Greater Upper Nile, Uganda, Kenya, Ethiopia, and Sudan to carry out interviews with SPLM-IO officials, Nuer civilians, and others; specific visits to Addis Ababa and Khartoum between 10 and 26 May 2016; attendance at relevant conferences; and an examination of the growing secondary literature and news reports on the conflict in South Sudan. The primary focus of the study is on the political development of the SPLM-IO, and no attempt is made to provide a comprehensive analysis of the organization’s military activities or examine conditions at the local level.
- Topic:
- Military Affairs, Conflict, and Isolation
- Political Geography:
- Uganda, Kenya, Africa, Sudan, and Ethiopia
124. Sweet secrets in the Horn of Africa: Sugar and politics in the Kenya-Somalia borderlands
- Author:
- Jacob Rasmussen
- Publication Date:
- 12-2017
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- A new DIIS Working Paper entitled ‘Sweet secrets: sugar smuggling and state formation in the Kenya-Somalia borderlands’ explores the role of Somali militants and the Kenyan army, bureaucrats, politicians, businessmen and truck drivers in the lucrative but dangerous smuggling of sugar between Somalia and Kenya. Jacob Rasmussen, an anthropologist and Associate Professor at Roskilde University, highlights the many vested interests in sugar smuggling in northern Kenya. Sugar smuggling is a ‘sweet secret’ that is publicly known in Kenya, but cannot openly be talked about. It is part of illicit trade networks that not only span the Horn of Africa region, but go hand in hand with state formation dynamics in Kenya. This DIIS Working Paper is part of the GOVSEA PAPER SERIES (Governing Economic Hubs and Flows in Somali East Africa) edited by Tobias Hagmann and Finn Stepputat.
- Topic:
- State Formation, Borders, Smuggling, and Sugar
- Political Geography:
- Kenya, Somalia, and Horn of Africa
125. Women and Transitional Justice
- Author:
- Peace and Security (GIWPS) Georgetown Institute for Women
- Publication Date:
- 08-2017
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security (GIWPS)
- Abstract:
- This volume attempts to share some of the ideas outlined in a Bridging Theory and Practice Symposium on the topic of women and transitional justice. In the following pages, Jennifer Moore presents a useful framework for how to conduct qualitative research that focuses on the work of women-led, community-based organizations in Uganda, Sierra Leone, and Burundi, and in doing so helps construct a research model that can be adapted across contexts. Rebekka Friedman provides reflections on women’s experiences in culturally mediated grieving and recovery processes in northern Sri Lanka. Anna Applebaum and Briana Mawby discuss the opportunities and challenges to engendering transitional justice processes in Kenya after the 2007-2008 post-election violence, paying particular attention to the ongoing and yet-to-be fully implemented Restorative Justice Fund.
- Topic:
- Elections, Women, Transitional Justice, Violence, and Community-based Organizations
- Political Geography:
- Uganda, Kenya, Africa, Sri Lanka, Sierra Leone, and Burundi
126. Innovation in the Horn, East and Central Africa (HECA): Perspectives from on-the-ground experiences
- Author:
- Jane Gaithuma
- Publication Date:
- 05-2017
- Content Type:
- Case Study
- Institution:
- Oxfam Publishing
- Abstract:
- Innovation involves applying information, imagination and initiative to get greater or different value from resources, and includes all processes by which new ideas are generated and converted into useful processes or products. These case studies showcase some of the innovative ideas that are being implemented by Oxfam in six countries: Kenya, Rwanda, South Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda and Burundi. Each project was selected for its potential to bring greater impact in the future. They include turning ‘excrement into income’ in urban slums in Kenya; giving citizens a voice through empowering them to use their mobile phones to report and share information on justice issues in Rwanda; and using a logistical ‘hub’ in Uganda to enhance service delivery and cost-effectiveness across a region.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Mobility, Urban, and Innovation
- Political Geography:
- Uganda, Kenya, Africa, and Rwanda
127. Sustainable Solutions to Water Supply in Kenya
- Author:
- Ian Goodrich and Simeon Ogamba
- Publication Date:
- 06-2017
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Oxfam Publishing
- Abstract:
- The Kenya Water, Sanitation and Hygiene (WASH) Resilience and Governance Programme is built upon a theory of change which emphasizes empowerment, rights and the ability of citizens – particularly women – to develop and implement their own strategies for better access to services to improve health and quality of life. The programme’s approach holds that the best-placed actors to deliver improved water and sanitation are the country’s government, civil society and private sector, who are held accountable by the citizens they serve in promoting the quality and sustainability of services. The programme addresses water and sanitation challenges in urban and rural settlements of Kenya, strengthening the capacity of county governments, water-user associations and water utility companies to provide safe, sustainable services; developing and piloting innovative solutions; and working with other civil society partners to call for policy changes that address the needs of the most vulnerable people. This document particularly focuses on the question of whether water ATMs are a sustainable solution to water supply.
- Topic:
- Water, Infrastructure, Innovation, and Sustainability
- Political Geography:
- Kenya and Africa
128. Victims Fighting Impunity Transitional Justice in the African Great Lakes Region
- Author:
- Aileen Thomson and Sarah Kasande Kihika
- Publication Date:
- 03-2017
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The International Center for Transitional Justice (ICTJ)
- Abstract:
- The International Center for Transitional Justice’s experience working in Uganda, Kenya, and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) in this regard has followed a pattern we have seen in other contexts, where it has been important to move beyond the “integrated approach” to transitional justice,1 and codified frameworks, that can take years to operationalize and are backed only theoretically by government. Given this, ICTJ has worked with local organizations in Great Lakes countries to identify and support more limited, sometimes unofficial, processes that may have more realistic chances of success and gaining political support, while continuing, where appropriate, to push for the implementation of other measures that may or may not have been included in the original formal transitional justice framework. Through a more targeted approach, based on political analysis of the evolving context, the intention is to move forward on one measure in a way that not only advances acknowledgement, accountability, and reform directly, but also creates space for other objectives to be pursued in the future. The paper begins with an overview of the transitional justice processes currently underway in Uganda, Kenya, and the DRC. Next, it identifies lessons learned from ICTJ’s experience of working in the Great Lakes region, which may be applicable in other countries. These lessons include the importance of understanding the needs of victims, conducting a thorough political analysis, identifying strategic and realistic opportunities for transitional justice, investing in and supporting a domestic constituency to take ownership of the process, and creating and facilitating interactions between the state and victims/civil society. Together, these strategies can facilitate the creation of space for the design and implementation of context-specific, locally owned measures that provide or advance meaningful acknowledgement, redress, accountability, and reform. The experiences examined below are based on work that is still in progress and has not necessarily achieved all potential results yet. However, we believe that the work described here has attained some level of success in laying a foundation for meaningful and sustainable transitional justice processes in these countries in the future. This paper offers a concrete analysis of more general critical reflections that have grown out of ICTJ practice regarding what is often referred to as an integrated (or comprehensive)approach to transitional justice. Such an approach refers to an attempt, often through a peace agreement or legislation, to simultaneously create, define, or commit to multiple transitional justice measures—usually the so-called “four pillars” of transitional justice, namely truth seeking, reparations, prosecutions, and institutional reform. This approach may be codified officially by a peace agreement or policy that sets out the different measures. It may include a system to establish their interrelationships and/or a sequence for implementation. The model of an integrated approach is rooted in different sources. One is the very important body of human rights activism, rulings, and resolutions of the past three decades that have led to the formal identification of the rights of victims of grave human rights violations as the right to truth, justice, reparations, and guarantees of non-recurrence as well as the standardization that grew out of international recognition of transitional justice as part of rule of law and peacebuilding efforts. A second source is more strongly conceptual and has led to theories that suggest strong positive synergies or interactions among these measures meant to advance victims’ rights (or the four pillars) when designed together and implemented as part of a coherent, preconceived plan or policy. While conceptually compelling, on the ground such an attempt to create and or implement a comprehensive model, with little reference to the political and social context, available human and material resources, or the more specific concerns of victims, has often led to mechanical, “template-like” measures if they are implemented or to years of delay to create the multiple and complex policies required. Common consequences have included limited meaningful participation by victims or civil society, paltry responses to victims, limited impact on fighting impunity or building trust, deficits in social dynamism in support of victims’ rights, great frustration, and rapid declines in international support. Efforts in Great Lakes countries on transitional justice using such a comprehensive model provide many examples of such consequences, as will be discussed below. The difficulties in generating successful transitional justice processes through an integrated approach does not mean “throwing the baby out with the bathwater” or giving up on the fundamental commitment to victims’ rights as an essential part of building stable, peaceful, and inclusive societies in the long term. Rather, the challenges at hand are to pay more attention to the context, to listen to victims and other stakeholders about appropriate measures of redress and about what can work, and to identify strategies and actions that may be small at any given time, but can provide some effective, albeit partial, response and build momentum and experience for further action. ICTJ presents here some of the lessons that can be learned from working to advance transitional justice in three countries in the Great Lakes region, in the hopes that they can frame new efforts in the region and elsewhere.
- Topic:
- Transitional Justice, Impunity, Accountability, and Victims
- Political Geography:
- Uganda, Kenya, Africa, Burundi, and Democratic Republic of Congo
129. The Perfect Storm: The closing space for LGBT civil society in Kyrgyzstan, Indonesia, Kenya, and Hungary
- Author:
- Meg Davis
- Publication Date:
- 04-2016
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Global Philanthropy Project (GPP)
- Abstract:
- While the late 20th century saw a blossoming of civil society organizations, the beginning of the 21st century has been a period of upheaval. In response to both the threat of terrorism and to growing populist pressure for democracy, transparency, and government accountability, states have used new laws and tactics to restrict freedom of association and freedom of expression. Lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender (LGBT) organizations have always faced such barriers, ranging from criminalization of same-sex sexuality, to refusal of the right to register organizations or hold public events, to the shutdown of websites.1 In recent years, some countries have also ratified new laws that explicitly prohibit groups engaged in “LGBT propaganda.” In other countries, politicians have mobilized resurgent nationalism by publicly scapegoating LGBT groups as representing “foreign values.” These overlapping trends have created a “perfect storm” for LGBT civil society organizations caught in simultaneous waves of political pressure.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Government, Law, Freedom of Expression, Discrimination, LGBT+, Marginalization, and Philanthropy
- Political Geography:
- Kenya, Indonesia, Kyrgyzstan, Hungary, and Global Focus
130. Competing orders and conflicts at the margins of the State: Inter-group conflicts along the Ethiopia-Kenya border
- Author:
- Asebe Regassa Debelo
- Publication Date:
- 12-2016
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- African Journal on Conflict Resolution
- Institution:
- The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
- Abstract:
- In this paper, the interplay between various competing orders among three ethnic groups on the margins of the Ethiopian state that have overlapping presence along the Ethiopia-Kenya border is analysed. The paper probes into complex and intertwined causes of inter-group conflicts by going beyond the commonly asserted resource scarcity and ethnicity assumptions, arguing that any attempt to establish sustainable peace becomes futile without assessing inter-group conflict within a context including historical, environmental, political, economic, cultural and institutional dimensions. The paper also conceptualises the state as an active player in inter-group relations, as it plays a fundamental role in instigating and/or resolving conflicts based on its political, economic and strategic interests. Taking the case of inter-group conflicts among three groups inhabiting border areas along southern Ethiopia and northern Kenya, and by employing actor-oriented perspectives, the paper argues that the involvement of competing interests and claims on the side of the Ethiopian state, local communities and individuals, both in the instigation of conflicts and peacebuilding processes further complicates the situation. It concludes that inter-group conflict and attempts at peacebuilding in the region are to a large extent influenced by national political dynamics, changes in traditional institutions and cross-border relations.
- Topic:
- Conflict, Borders, State, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Kenya, Africa, and Ethiopia