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1. The India-Pakistan Rivalry in Afghanistan

Author:
Zachary Constantino
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The most consequential regional competition for influence in Afghanistan is the contest between India and Pakistan. Indian leaders strive to cultivate Afghanistan as a natural partner and reliable bulwark against Islamic militants, including Pakistan-backed groups, while Islamabad seeks to counter what it regards as an Indo-Afghan nexus to encircle and weaken Pakistan. This report examines the interests and strategies of both countries in Afghanistan within the context of peace negotiations and developments in Kashmir.
Topic:
Terrorism, Conflict, Peace, Strategic Competition, and Proxy War
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, South Asia, India, and Kashmir

2. Sino-US Kashmir Policy: Analyzing The Bilateral Approach

Author:
Sumeera Imran and Lubna Abid Ali
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Political Studies
Institution:
Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:
Sino-Indian stand-off in Galwan has revived world attention to the dispute in Kashmir. Indian revocation of Article 370 and Article 35-A propped up diverse responses from the international community. China condemned Indian abrogation and the US offered to mediate on Kashmir. Trump’s offer of mediation opened up a pandora box of strong opposition in Indian Lok Sabha. Resolute criticism unleashed on Modi for compromising on Indian national security objectives and territorial integrity. Reflecting the urgency and complications involved in conflict resolution, the propensity of nuclear confrontation in South Asia remains high in Kashmir. US Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden has declared Human Rights in Kashmir as integral part of his electoral agenda. The US State Department has declared no change in its historic Kashmir policy, while China has resented Indian unilateral change in the region’s status. Great powers’ involvement in regional conflicts has been fluid, fluctuating with the change in their national security interests. Broad contours of national security objectives have shaped Sino-US Kashmir policy in the past. Employing qualitative research methodology and theoretical perspective of complex interdependence, the article reviews Sino-US traditional policy roles in conflict resolution on Kashmir. How has the US and Chinese Kashmir policy evolved over the years? What impact does the US and Chinese Kashmir policy has on regional stability? The article argues that great powers’ involvement has inflicted more injury than cure, exacerbating regional tensions. Great powers’ alignment along opposite poles has increased India-Pakistan bilateral hostilities on Kashmir. Sino-US insistence on Indo-Pakistan bilateral approach for conflict resolution rather than the UN framework has created the impasse on Kashmir.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:
China, Kashmir, and United States of America

3. Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses (CTTA) – Volume 11 Issue 04: South Asian Militant Landscape in the Context of the Pulwama Attack and its Aftermath

Author:
Damien D. Cheong, Mohammed Sinan Siyech, Sara Mahmood, Abdul Basit, Neo Loo Seng, and Farhan Zahid
Publication Date:
04-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Counter Terrorist Trends and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
The suicide attack on India’s paramilitary Central Reserved Police Force (CRPF) in Kashmir’s Pulwama district has once again exposed the sharp fault-lines between India and Pakistan, pushing them to the brink of war. The February 2019 attack, claimed by Pakistan-based anti-India militant group, Jaish-e-Muhammad (JeM), killed 40 CRPF personnel. This attack and its aftermath underscores a new phase of militancy in violence-ridden Kashmir and renewed hostilities between India and Pakistan. India’s retaliatory airstrikes on alleged JeM camps inside mainland Pakistan (after a hiatus of five decades) have redefined the conflict threshold. In 1999, even at the height of the Kargil crisis between the two states, the Indian air force did not cross the Line of Control. Indian airstrikes signal a qualitative shift in the Indian position from the strategy of deterrence-by-denial to deterrence-by-punishment. Consequently, this will result in a new unstable equilibrium, lowering the threshold of a low-intensity, limited conflict between India and Pakistan over Kashmir. Moreover, the absence of a functional India-Pakistan crisis management mechanism further increases the probability of a limited conflict. The United States (US) and international community’s response to the Pulwama attack and its aftermath is also pertinent. Instead of urging both India and Pakistan to desist from escalation, for the first time, the US and international community acknowledged India’s right of self-defence and emphasised de-escalation only after Indian airstrikes on alleged JeM camps in Balakot. Barring China, no other country condemned India’s violation of Pakistani sovereignty. This will have long-term implications on strategic stability and balance of power in South Asia. The Pulwama attack has also witnessed emergence of new interlocutors in India-Pakistan tensions such as China, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia. JeM has 40,000 trained militants in its ranks and returned to Kashmir in 2016 with the Pathankot air base attack. Between then and the Pulwama attack, it has increased its activities and presence in parts of Indian Administered Jammu & Kashmir (IAJK). The use of a Vehicle Borne Improvised Explosive Device (VBIED) to hit a military convoy in a highly-militarised zone like Kashmir shows JeM’s enhanced operational capabilities. Accumulating 80 kilograms of highly explosive ‘RDX’ and preparing a VBIED signify the expertise of JeM’s cadres. The suicide bomber Adil Rashid Dar was a local Kashmiri, whom JeM had recruited by exploiting his anger and quest for revenge against the Indian state to serve its agenda of ‘liberating’ Kashmir. After witnessing a dip between 2008 and 2013, violence and militant recruitment have spiked in Kashmir since 2015. The number of militants killed in Kashmir rose from 130 in 2016 to 200 in 2017 and 240 in 2018. In the first two months of 2019, 31 militants have been killed in Kashmir. At the policy level, Pakistan’s response to the JeM threat is critical. Kinetic measures against militant groups such as sanctions, arrests and crackdowns, helpful in the short-term, need to be supplemented. Non-kinetic measures like an effective counter ideological narrative and a comprehensive de-radicalisation and rehabilitation plan would be necessary to create incentives for JeM members to shun militancy. The larger question is how will Pakistan create a counter ideological narrative against JeM without compromising on the state’s identical stance on Kashmir? Moreover, effective rehabilitation of a large number of militants will require massive time and resources and a strong political will by the Pakistani military and political leadership. In 2002, when the military regime of General Pervez Musharraf banned JeM and took action against its cadres, the group retaliated with two assassination attempts on him, alongside several high-profile attacks inside Pakistan. In the event of another round of crackdowns initiated against JeM, a serious backlash cannot be ruled out. Moreover, if JeM splinters as a result of heavy-handed crackdowns, some of its members might gravitate towards terror groups like Islamic State of Khorasan (ISK), Al-Qaeda in the Indian Sub-continent (AQIS) or Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). India and Pakistan, beyond proxy warfare, will have to dispassionately discuss the security challenges arising out of various terrorist groups operating in the region. India and Pakistan will have to create joint counter-terrorism and counter-extremism frameworks to overcome the challenge of militancy, notwithstanding who launched and supported these groups since the 1980s. Against this backdrop, the current issue features four articles looking at different aspects of the Pulwama attack and its aftermath. In the first article, Farhan Zahid traces the background and current status of JeM and its founder Maulana Masood Azhar. The author maintains that Azhar’s ideology had a significant impact on the evolution of Kashmir’s militant landscape. Headquartered in Pakistani Punjab’s Bahawalpur province, JeM has longstanding ties and nexuses with other militant groups in the region such as Al-Qaeda (AQ), the Afghan and Pakistani Taliban and Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ). These ties have allowed JeM to evade bans and crackdowns from the Pakistani security forces in the past. Notwithstanding information that Azhar is critically ill and his brother Mufti Abdul Rauf Asghar and brother-in-law Qari Talha are running JeM’s day-to-day operations, the author emphasises the need to create counter-narratives against Azhar’s violent ideology. The second article by Muhammad Sinan Siyech dissects the Pulwama attack using Louise Richardson’s conceptual framework of the Three Rs (Revenge, Renown and Reaction). According to the author, the Pulwama attack manifested all three Rs making it a highly successful attack for the JeM. The suicide bomber was seeking revenge for repeated arrests and humiliation faced at the hands of Indian security forces. JeM also drew maximum attention from mainstream and social media in the aftermath of the attack. The attack centre-staged Kashmir as a core dispute between India and Pakistan and a nuclear flashpoint that needed serious international attention. It also prompted immediate reactions from India in the form of retaliatory airstrikes on JeM camps in Balakot, escalation of India-Pakistan tensions and stringent security measures in Kashmir. The author argues that such security measures in Kashmir would likely provide JeM with fresh recruits and funding. To mitigate this likelihood, there is need to examine India’s domestic responses in Kashmir, with continued diplomatic pressure on Pakistan to take action against anti-India militant groups. It is also necessary to strengthen international ties to ensure timely information and intelligence sharing to curtail terrorist networks and their financing. The next article by Damien Chong and Neo Loo Seng discusses whether Kashmir could turn into a future bastion for the Islamic State (IS) akin to Marawi in the Philippines in the aftermath of the Pulwama terrorist attack. Various arguments are discussed for and against such a scenario. On one hand, continued violence, socio-economic and political instability in Kashmir, similar to the situation in Marawi in 2017, are pull factors for transnational threat groups such as IS. This is particularly in light of the recent collapse of IS’ territories in Syria/Iraq prompting it to re-group elsewhere. Proponents of the contending view argue that such an outcome is implausible as threat groups have thus far failed to effectively exploit the Kashmir conflict, given it is framed as a territorial and political dispute as opposed to an Islamist conflict. By assessing a broad spectrum of scenarios, the article discusses the pitfalls of the Marawi case and how they can be avoided in Kashmir. The last article by Abdul Basit and Sara Mahmood looks at the security and geopolitical implications of possible US withdrawal from Afghanistan on South Asia’s complex and diverse militant landscape in the context of the Pulwama attack. After 9/11, the US presence in Afghanistan had kept India-Pakistan tensions under control to ensure Islamabad’s cooperation in the border areas to track and hunt AQ remnants. A case in point is the US-brokered 2003 cease fire agreement between India and Pakistan. Now that the war in Afghanistan is nearing its end, tensions between the two South Asian nuclear rivals over Kashmir threaten to provide fresh fuel for regional militancy and bilateral tensions to persist. It seems that several militant groups like JeM which diverted their fighters to Afghanistan after 9/11 to assist the Afghan Taliban in fighting the US are now returning to their old conflict zones through incidents like the Pulwama attack. The Afghan Taliban’s perceived victory in Afghanistan will create a triumphant jihadist narrative for a plethora of militant groups in the region, giving them new zeal and fervour which will make the South Asian militant landscape more lethal and violent.
Topic:
Terrorism, Taliban, Counter-terrorism, Al Qaeda, Islamic State, Political stability, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Pakistan, South Asia, India, Kashmir, and Southeast Asia

4. Kashmir: A Case for Self-Determination

Author:
Hafsa Kanjwal
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
On 5 August 2019, the Indian government unilaterally changed the legal status of the state of Jammu and Kashmir, undermining its own constitutional process and completely annexing a territory that remains disputed in the international arena. In a statement to the Indian parliament, the Indian Home Minister announced the abrogation of Kashmir’s special status enshrined in Article 370 of the Indian constitution, as well as the bifurcation of the state into two Union Territories to be directly governed by the central government. Since then, the government has placed Indian-occupied Kashmir on lockdown. Despite restrictions on the movement of reporters and human rights observers and a clampdown on communication infrastructure (including the internet and some phone services), there have been reports of widespread human rights abuses including extrajudicial detentions (including of minors), torture, sexual violence, and lack of access to basic medical and healthcare services.
Topic:
Post Colonialism, Territorial Disputes, Self Determination, Colonialism, and Empire
Political Geography:
India, East Asia, and Kashmir

5. Kashmir: The Major Source of Conflict between Pakistan and India

Author:
Abdul Majid, Shoukat Ali, Fazal Abbas, and Shazia Kousar
Publication Date:
07-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
South Asian Studies
Institution:
Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:
Kashmir is the most serious dispute between Pakistan and India that originated with the British decision to give independence to British India that later divided into two states i.e. Pakistan and India. Being a Muslim majority princely state, the people wanted to join Pakistan. However the non-Muslim ruler of Kashmir opted India. The people of Kashmir revolted against this decision which set the stage for the first Kashmir war between Pakistan and India. Since then India has maintained its control over Kashmir by use of force and a heavy presence of Indian security forces. India and Pakistan fought another war on Kashmir in 1965. Despite India’s coercive policies, Kashmiris continued to resist Indian domination. The current uprising in Kashmir is the latest manifestation of Kashmiri revolt against India. Pakistan and India need to hold talks for a peaceful resolution of Kashmir which is also acceptable to the Kashmiris. They do not want to live under Indian rule and want to decide about the future of Kashmir through plebiscite, as promised in the UN resolutions of 1948-49.
Topic:
United Nations, History, Territorial Disputes, Conflict, and Protests
Political Geography:
Pakistan, United Kingdom, South Asia, India, and Kashmir

6. Representation of ‘The Other’: Tracing the ‘Otherized’ Segments of Contemporary Indian Society in Arundhati Roy’s The Ministry of Utmost Happiness

Author:
Rizwan Mustafa and Zoya Jamil Chaudhry
Publication Date:
07-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
South Asian Studies
Institution:
Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:
This paper examines the post-colonial nation‟s history (India) from perspectives of marginalized minorities in Arundhati Roy‟s The Ministry of Utmost Happiness. The aim of this research is to explore the marginalization of “the Others” and traces the otherized segments of contemporary Indian society that are marginalized on the basis of being a hijra, a Dalit, a woman, a Muslim and an Untouchable. This paper analyzes „binarism‟ and the conflict between the center and periphery: between Hindus and Muslims, between male, female and intersex, between Touchables and Untouchables, as well as between the graveyard and the surrounding wider city. Anjum, an intersex, Revathy, a Maoist comrade, Dayachand, an Untouchable, Tilotamma, a wandering Syrian origin half-Dalit woman, Musa Yeswi, a forced Kashmiri freedom fighter– narrate the untold and unheard tales about failure of a secular democratic country. This paper tours the fault lines of India and highlights the struggle of socially excluded people of society, against the established standards of the culture hence challenging contemporary stereotypical representation of “the Others” and eventually resistance. Roy explicitly advocates religious, racial and territorial degenerative system and reflects the challenges of telling national narrative from a multiple minoritarian perspective. The novel has multi-layered and multi-dimensional plot-structure and investigate the causes behind Roy‟s attempt to give voice to the voiceless (Indians). This research is carried out applying Edward Said‟s theoretical framework of “The Self” and “The Other”, “Us” and “Them”, and “Binary Opposition”.
Topic:
Post Colonialism, Minorities, Women, and Inequality
Political Geography:
Pakistan, South Asia, India, Kashmir, and Punjab

7. The Indo-Pak Rivalry and the Kashmir Issue: A Historical Analysis in the Security Context of the South Asia

Author:
Syed Shahbaz Hussain, Ghulam Mustafa, Muhammad Imran, and Adnan Nawaz
Publication Date:
07-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Political Studies
Institution:
Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:
The Kashmir issue is a primary source of resentment between India and Pakistan. It is considered the oldest issue on the schedule of the Security Council yet to be resolved. This divisive issue remained unsolved and has become the nuclear flashpoint. The peace of the South Asian region is severely contingent upon the peaceful resolution of the Kashmir dispute. It is not only the pivot of bitterness in the bilateral relation of India and Pakistan, it also a continuous threat to the regional peace in South Asia. This study critically assesses and evaluated the issue in the perspective of historical facts and current context regarding Kashmir. Chronological data presented and describe that the Kashmir issue has deteriorated the fragile security of South Asian region and remained a continuous threat of nuclear escalation in the region. Kashmir issue has severe implications for populace of Kashmir as well as for the region
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Security, Human Rights, and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:
Pakistan, South Asia, India, and Kashmir

8. Kashmir and Global Powers

Author:
Amjad Abbas Khan, Sardar Sajid Mehmood, and Mehboob Alam
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
South Asian Studies
Institution:
Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:
Kashmir is generally visualized by the global powers with Indian and Pakistani perspective rather than a humanitarian issue. No doubt it is a bone of contention between two countries but cannot be declared as a simple bilateral conflict because of multi-dimensional nature. Kashmiri people have been struggling for their birth right, the right of self-determination since 1948, in the light of UN Security Council‟s resolutions. This paper highlights responsibilities and the role played by global powers in the resolution of longstanding issue of Asian Sub-continent according to the UN Security Council resolutions for peace and prosperity of the region.
Topic:
Human Rights, United Nations, Bilateral Relations, Territorial Disputes, Self Determination, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Pakistan, South Asia, India, Kashmir, and Punjab

9. The Role of Kashmiri Diaspora in Conflict Transformation

Author:
Lubna Haroon
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Political Studies
Institution:
Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:
Globalization has played a crucial role in growing number of migrants across the world. These migrants have been seen as a significant diplomatic and development agent in both their origin and host countries. Kashmiri migrants across the world have assumed importance in diplomatic discourse and transformation of their long-standing dispute. However, efforts by Jammu & Kashmir governments to engage the diaspora in conflict have not been followed by formulation and implementation of appropriate policies and strategies. There appears to be an unspoken mistrust between the intentions of governments and the members of Kashmiri diaspora, which has resulted in their low utilization. Subsequently, there is a need to create an interpretative framework to advocate and effectively engage the diaspora. Therefore, the diaspora should be consulted in national action plans and diplomatic initiatives to integrate and to stimulate their sustainable role in the protracted conflict of Kashmir.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Diaspora, Territorial Disputes, and Conflict
Political Geography:
South Asia and Kashmir

10. India: Policy Implications for the United States

Author:
Jon P. Dorschner
Publication Date:
10-2017
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
American Diplomacy
Institution:
American Diplomacy
Abstract:
India has long been obsessed with its rivalry with Pakistan, and for many years India viewed Pakistan as its principal security threat. Pakistan continues to support terrorist attacks directed against India and India-controlled Kashmir, and is continually increasing its nuclear arsenal and delivery systems for nuclear warheads. Despite this, Indians have come to feel more self-assured and no longer see Pakistan as the country’s principal security threat.China now occupies this position. India no longer views itself simply as the predominant regional power in South Asia, but as an aspiring world power and is gearing up for what many in India believe is an inevitable conflict with its neighbor the Peoples Republic of China. India has embarked on an outreach program to solidify friendly ties to other Asian nations that feel threatened by China, and is devoting a lot of attention to the ASEAN states (particularly Viet Nam), Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan. There is increasing speculation that this relationship could develop into a formal alliance, especially if the United States becomes less active in Asia.
Topic:
International Relations, Climate Change, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Regional Cooperation, Territorial Disputes, Economy, Trump, and Borders
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, China, Iran, South Asia, India, North Korea, Kashmir, and United States of America