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51. Regional Diffusion of Foreign Demand Shocks Through Trade and Ownership Networks

Author:
Lionel Fontagné and Gianluca Santoni
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:
International demand shocks are transmitted within the trade and ownership firms' networks and impact directly or indirectly domestic firm productivity and labor misallocation. Considering manufacturing firms for Italy, Spain and France over the period 2009-2017, we quantify these transmission channels from the global economy to the domestic firms, and within the domestic economy across locations, sectors and firms. We compute in a shift share fashion international demand shock at the district-sector-year level as plausibly exogenous to individual firms. Our results confirm that global shocks are transmitted through trade networks and that this transmission is largely mediated by firms' ownership networks both across and within the borders of the three countries.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Demand, and Productivity
Political Geography:
Europe, France, Spain, and Italy

52. Meloni at the Helm: What Does Italy’s New Government Mean for Sino-Italian Relations?

Author:
Andrew R. Novo
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
China Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Questions about the unity of Italy’s new government on several key foreign policy issues persist, ranging from the extent of its support for Ukraine to its commitment to various European Union institutions. However, on the issue of China, the new government of Prime Minister (PM) Giorgia Meloni appears united. This bodes well for transatlantic cooperation and could spell trouble for Beijing, which not too long ago entertained ideas of using Italy as a friendly counterweight in Europe. Under Meloni, Italian foreign policy, particularly toward China, is unlikely to chart a dramatically new course. This is largely because the current government has prioritized its commitment to NATO and needs to focus on domestic issues rather than risk upsetting the international arena. While openings remain for Sino-Italian cooperation in economic terms, such cooperation will be geared toward supporting Italy’s domestic challenges and is unlikely to provide Beijing with the significant foothold that it has long hoped to gain in Europe.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Government, Bilateral Relations, and Giorgia Meloni
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Asia, and Italy

53. Exploring the Meaning of Borders in an Interconnected World

Author:
Amanda Ribichini
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The word “border” carries much complexity. It encompasses many facets of the human condition, from purely geographical locations to intangible beliefs and personal or individual traits. Yet, today, the term border is often manipulated, coupled with verbs or adjectives that aim to emphasise its importance or demonise its significance; the border has increasingly become a stigma, used indiscriminately by all political forces, with some calling for its demolition and others its strengthening. Frequently, borders tend to be considered as vestiges of a now deceased past or as a sort of chimera, a utopia whose return is preached as a solution to many everyday challenges. Yet, the term border is not just a word: the border exists, it is there, and there are people who inhabit it. By examining the case of the Italian-Slovenian border crossing in the Italian town of Gorizia, one can understand if the border itself has actually lost value in today’s world, or if it still retains traces of its past significance.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Globalization, Conflict, and Borders
Political Geography:
Europe, Italy, and Slovenia

54. Italians and Defence at the Time of the Ukraine War: Winds of Change

Author:
Alessandro Marrone
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
In 2022, Italians have become more concerned about tensions between Russia and the West – but not more pro-American. They rather largely trust the European Union as a security actor, or lean towards an autonomous national defence policy – quite a change for the Italian public opinion. Italians are mostly supportive of military operations abroad and do not rule out the use of force, especially when national security is directly at stake, thus confirming the post-Cold War evolution of Italy’s strategic culture.[1] Notably, in the year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the majority in favour of defending a NATO ally under attack has risen by 9 per cent, showing an unprecedented awareness of the importance of Euro-Atlantic collective defence. These are the main novelties in Italians’ views of defence issues at a time marked by a full-fledged war in Europe and its multiple consequences for national interests, as highlighted by the 2022 edition of the periodic IAI-LAPS survey on Italy’s foreign and defence policy.[2]
Topic:
Defense Policy, Public Opinion, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Italy

55. Italy’s Election and the Rise of Hard Right Conservativism

Author:
Andrea Dessì and Vassilis Ntousas
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Should the polling prove accurate, Italy will soon be governed by its most radical right-wing government since World War II. Come 25 September, a coalition of political parties – dominated by the hard-right and anti-migrant Brothers of Italy party (Fratelli d’Italia – FdI) and Matteo Salvini’s League (Lega) – appears poised to secure a clear, if not resounding, majority in parliament. This will return Italy to a right-wing government, the first since Silvio Berlusconi’s centre-right coalition collapsed amidst the risk of Italian bankruptcy back in 2011. Despite its neo-fascist roots, heading the polls with about 25 per cent of the vote is Giorgia Meloni’s FdI, the frontrunner to become the country’s first female premier and first far-right head of government in Italy’s Republican history.[1] Salvini’s League and Silvio Berlusconi’s Go Italy (Forza Italia) party are the other major members of the right-wing coalition, whose impact if elected will reverberate far beyond Italy. For Europe, the polls are another indication of the spread of hard-right conservativism, following the French National Front’s electoral gains over the past few years and the recent victory by the Sweden Democrats this September.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Elections, Far Right, Political Parties, and Domestic Policy
Political Geography:
Europe and Italy

56. Italy’s Far-Right and the Migration Debate: Implications for Europe

Author:
Julian M. Campisi and Cecilia Emma Sottilotta
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Following the collapse of Mario Draghi’s national unity government in July, Italy is set to elect a new parliament on 25 September 2022, the first general election since 2018. Grappling with a myriad of socio-economic and energy challenges, the next government will face significant hardship in turning the tide, with Italy widely expected to be governed by a right-wing conservative government at a time when all indications point to Italy moving into recession in 2023. A conservative coalition of far- and centre-right parties, led by Brothers of Italy (Fratelli d’Italia – FdI), the League (Lega) and Go Italy (Forza Italia) party, is expected to win a significant majority of seats in parliament. While Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the ensuing inflation and energy crisis have dominated the electoral campaign, other issues should not be overlooked, not least in light of their impact on domestic politics as well as broader Italy–EU relations.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Migration, Elections, Far Right, Political Parties, and Domestic Policy
Political Geography:
Europe and Italy

57. Not Yet Time for Diplomacy. Lessons from Italy’s Ill-Conceived Peace Plan for Ukraine

Author:
Riccardo Alcaro and Nona Mikhelidze
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Few may have noticed, but Italy recently advanced its own diplomatic proposal for a resolution of the war in Ukraine. Rome’s ambitious peace plan[1] received little international recognition, although it was reportedly shared with the Quint – an informal consultation group comprising the United States, France, Germany, the United Kingdom and Italy – and formally presented to UN Secretary General António Guterres on 18 May 2022.[2] Crucially, the plan failed to impress the leaderships in both Ukraine[3] and Russia,[4] leading Foreign Minister Luigi Di Maio to put it aside on the grounds that circumstances are not “ripe” for such an initiative.[5]
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Peace, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Italy

58. The Geopolitics of Clean Hydrogen – Opportunities and Challenges for Italy

Author:
Marco Giuli
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The emergence of clean hydrogen as an energy carrier promises to shape the future geography of the energy trade. Under growing contestation of interdependence, such a geography should be read through political lenses alongside commercial and technological ones. Generally, hydrogen is likely to reduce the geopolitical sensitivity of energy trade with respect to a fossil-fuel-based energy order by increasing the share of energy produced domestically, shifting geostrategic competition from a focus on grabbing resources to a focus on mastering technology and setting standards, and offering petrostates opportunities for economic diversification. Italy can exploit the opportunities offered by a hydrogen economy for enhancing its energy security and positioning in the regional energy trade. However, it should be careful with monitoring how geopolitical barriers such as regional instability may affect its hydrogen ambitions.
Topic:
Geopolitics, Trade, Hydrogen, Pipeline, and Energy
Political Geography:
Europe and Italy

59. How Italians View Military Spending

Author:
Pierangelo Isernia, Rossella Borri, and Sergio Martini
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
On 16 March, a sweeping majority in the Italian Chamber of Deputies approved order 9/3491-A/35 committing the Italian government to raise the defence budget to 2 per cent of GDP.[1] Taken in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, this decision strengthens Italy’s adherence to the commitment made by NATO countries in 2004 and reiterated at the 2014 NATO summit in Newport, Wales. The announcement comes after half a decade of increasing Italian defence spending. Having decreased from 1.5 per cent of GDP in 2010 to 1.2 per cent in 2015, Italy’s military expenditures started to grow again, reaching 1.6 per cent of GDP in 2020. This figure is still considerably lower than the UK’s 2.2 per cent or France’s 2 per cent, but higher than Germany’s and Spain’s 1.4 per cent.[2] To understand the broader context within which Italy has decided to renew its commitment to the NATO target, Italian public opinion should be factored in. In this respect, opinion polls conducted prior to the war in Ukraine can shed some light on Italian attitudes toward defence spending in general and the 2 per cent NATO pledge specifically.
Topic:
Public Opinion, Budget, and Military Spending
Political Geography:
Europe and Italy

60. The US–Italy Economic Relations in a Divided World

Author:
Adriana Castagnoli
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
In 2021, bilateral trade returned to the sustained pace it had prior to the Covid pandemic. Direct investment also grew – crucially, not just Italian investment in the United States but the other way round too. While Italy’s economic ties with Russia and China remain potential hotspots, Rome has never questioned its Atlantic orientation. Nevertheless, possible austerity policies following sanctions against Russia could spread social discontent that populist parties can exploit for consensus purposes in the 2023 general election, rekindling anti-Americanism rooted in different segments of Italian society.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Foreign Direct Investment, Economic Policy, Trade, and Energy
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Italy, and United States of America