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271. Rethinking Geopolitical Strategies: from Conflict Management to Conflict Resolution in the Middle East

Author:
Bernard Siman
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
The Gaza war, the broader Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the Yemeni civil war, the Syrian civil war, and the Nagorno-Karbach conflict, to name a few conflicts on the edges of Europe, have one thing in common: the various actors, regional and international, opted, over decades, for conflict management rather than for conflict resolution. This has clearly failed. Transactional geopolitics, history has demonstrated, almost always end up in armed conflicts erupting typically from the periphery of the contested geopolitical spheres of influence to subsequently make their way towards the centres of the competing powers. The ‘July Crisis’ of 1914 is a good example. Sergei Sazonov, the last tsarist Russian foreign minister, recorded in his memoires that WW1 started in 1909 when Austria-Hungary annexed Bosnia. The intervening five years (to the start of the war in 1914) amounted to no more than attempts at ‘conflict management’ rather than ‘conflict resolution’. Transactionalism is synonymous with conflict management and, in the view of this writer, almost always leads ultimately to armed conflict.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, European Union, Geopolitics, and Conflict Management
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

272. Houthis Target Israel Amid Gaza Conflict - The Yemen Review, September and October 2023

Author:
Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
Abstract:
The Houthi group (Ansar Allah) claimed responsibility for a series of attempted missile and drone strikes on Israel. The Houthis have threatened to keep up the attacks as long as the Israeli military operation in Gaza continues. Four projectiles were intercepted by a US warship in the Red Sea, where the group has expanded its operations, and it could threaten shipping in the area in the future. Hamas’ deadly incursion into Israel and the subsequent conflict has fueled fears of a broader conflagration across the Arab world, potentially drawing in Iran and the US. While this still appears unlikely, the Houthis’ involvement could yet provoke retaliatory strikes from Israel or the US. The conflict is also proving a boon for recruitment for Al-Qaeda in Yemen. The Houthis staged a massive military parade on September 21 to celebrate the anniversary of their seizure of the capital in 2014. They then cracked down heavily on September 26 revolution celebrations, which mark the end of the Imamate and the beginning of republican rule. Thousands were reportedly arrested and detained, and a number of people were beaten for participation, as the event now carries symbolic importance as resistance against Houthi rule. Yemen has also seen nationwide demonstrations in support of the Palestinians over the course of October. Two border incidents marked a rare resumption of violence between the Houthis and foreign members of the Saudi coalition. Five Bahraini soldiers were killed following a Houthi drone strike along the border on September 25, and four Saudi soldiers were killed in a raid one month later. There has been speculation that the incidents reflect internal dissent over progressing Saudi-Houthi peace talks. Heavy fighting in Al-Dhalea has killed scores of fighters on both sides, though the frontlines have moved little. The renewed violence has been accompanied by the assassination and attempted assassination of local military leaders.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, Politics, Economy, Houthis, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Yemen, Palestine, Gaza, and Saudi Arabia

273. The Red Sea Front - The Yemen Review, November and December 2023

Author:
Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
Abstract:
Houthi military action in the Red Sea escalated dramatically during November and December, as the group announced the creation of a ‘third front’ against Israel in retaliation for its war in Gaza and military operations along the Lebanese border. Isolated attacks in October, nominally undertaken in solidarity with the besieged residents of Gaza, have mutated into a sustained campaign, with Houthi leaders now threatening to enforce a blockade of all ships headed to Israel through the area. Dozens of missile and drone strikes against maritime traffic have pushed the major shipping and oil companies to reroute their vessels. The attacks have been a public relations coup for the Houthis, who filmed the dramatic hijacking of the cargo ship Galaxy Leader, and have painted themselves as defenders of the Palestinian people. Regional powers have been hesitant to condemn the attacks, which were occurring near daily as of mid-December. The response from the US and other Western powers has been cautious. The US has sent additional warships to the region, and the Pentagon announced the formation of an international task force to protect shipping, though the scope of coordination is not yet clear. Mindful of the popularity of the Houthis’ stance, regional states have refused to officially join the response, with the sole exception of Bahrain. But the task force is unlikely to be the final word in the response. The US, Israel, or other Western nations may still launch strikes if Houthi operations continue unabated. At present they show no signs of stopping, and the group continues to work to improve its maritime power projection. The Houthis have also continued to press on other fronts, launching an attack on Marib in early November. The operation was reportedly the largest in months, and the group has continued to send reinforcements and fortify its positions in the area. Its long-held interest in the governorate’s strategic oil fields does not appear to have abated. The Houthis have also intensified military action in southern Hudaydah, perhaps looking to extend their maritime reach toward the Bab Al-Mandab Strait. A Saudi-Houthi deal, which seemed imminent through much of November, now appears to be on hold. The scale and brazenness of Houthi attacks have given US and Saudi officials pause, even if they still wish for a settlement to be completed. With further military action likely, and the scale of the international response not yet clear, the Houthis’ position vis-à-vis the peace process and the internationally recognized government is now less certain. Should they or the Saudis abandon peace talks, Yemen could face renewed military contestation between the Houthis and their opponents. For its part, the UN Special Envoy’s office announced its continued support for the process. The declining prospects of a deal, which reportedly promised massive Saudi financial relief in the form of public sector salary payments, has further imperiled the cash-strapped internationally recognized government. Saudi assistance promised to the government in August has not arrived, and the Houthis’ Red Sea attacks have dramatically increased already high shipping costs, which are passed on to consumers. The country is particularly vulnerable to such fluctuations as it relies almost entirely on imported foodstuffs, and the economic harm from Houthi operations will be felt most intensely in Yemen. Nearing bankruptcy, the government may no longer be able to pay salaries in the new year. It has already suspended FX auctions to finance basic commodity imports, and with its hard currency reserves exhausted, the value of the new rial has been falling since October. The government’s options to raise revenues are limited. A proposal to sell discounted oil to an Emirati company drew intense backlash, though it is unclear what other avenues are available. The government’s insolvency is perhaps most visible in its inability to provide electricity to the interim capital of Aden. The UAE sent an emergency fuel shipment in November to keep power plants running as an interim measure, but a long-term solution remains elusive.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, Houthis, Shipping, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Yemen, Palestine, Gaza, and Red Sea

274. A Middle East Free of Weapons of Mass Destruction: A Utopia?

Author:
Pierre Goldschmidt
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Nonproliferation Policy Education Center
Abstract:
Earlier this summer, well before Hamas launched its raids against Israel, Pierre Goldschmidt, the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA’s) former Deputy Director for Safeguards, sent me an analysis of how to approach creating a nuclear weapons free zone in the Middle East. I agreed to publish it along with a commentary by Ariel Levite, the former Deputy Director of Israel’s Atomic Energy Commission. The result is the attached occasional paper, “A Middle East Free of Weapons of Mass Destruction: A Utopia?” The greater Middle East is at a critical juncture. Either the number of states in the region having nuclear weapons or nuclear weapons options will grow or the number will be frozen and decline. Saudi Arabia, Iran, the UAE, Turkey, Egypt, and Algeria will either become Israel’s nuclear equal (or come within weeks of doing so) or they will forgo the option. In any case, creating a nuclear weapons free zone in the region has been promoted for nearly a half-century and is sure to be an issue in the upcoming Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty Review Conference and Preparatory Committee meetings scheduled through 2026. Yet, many analysts have dismissed going to zero nuclear weapons in the region as being unrealistic. Certainly, with Israel so embattled, any movement toward creating a zone now will take even longer. On the other hand, current developments suggest time may not be on our side. Less than a month after Hamas’ first incursions, not one, but two elected Israeli parliamentarians, including a junior member of Israel’s cabinet, publicly recommended Israel use its nuclear weapons against Hamas in Gaza. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince has fielded growing concerns that Iran might quickly get nuclear weapons by repeating his earlier public threat to acquire nuclear weapons if Tehran does. In an effort to deflect this threat and to “stabilize” the region, the Biden Administration wants the Saudis to join the Abraham Accords. As a part of any such deal, the Crown Prince, though, has demanded that the United States green-light Saudi efforts to pursue a “peaceful” uranium enrichment program. This would effectively give the Kingdom a nuclear weapons option and would catalyze nuclear hedging throughout the greater Middle East. It’s unclear if such racing can be curbed. Pierre Goldschmidt lays out an alternative incremental approach toward creating a weapons free zone in the region. Ariel Levite clarifies many of the serious reservations about proceeding now that most Israelis would likely have. Each makes points worth our attention. The hurdles are real but so are the risks of not trying to surmount them.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and Nonproliferation
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and United States of America

275. Towards a Study of Citizenship Education Among Non-Citizens: The Case of Palestinians in East Jerusalem

Author:
Tal Eitan
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
The city of Jerusalem, Israel’s capital, is located at the heart of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. It is unique in that it is both the largest Jewish and Arab city in Israel and the only one where the inferiority of the Palestinian population over the Jewish population is enshrined in law, since East Jerusalemites are not Israeli citizens but its ‘permanent residents.’ The non-citizen status of East Jerusalem’s Palestinians has caused integrative problems for both the Israeli state authorities and the Palestinians. Following over five decades of systemic neglect, the Israeli government passed a decision (Government Decision 3790) committing substantial resources to the socioeconomic amelioration of the inhabitants of East Jerusalem, with the goal of narrowing existing gaps between its 330,000 Palestinian residents and the nearly 600,000 residents of Jerusalem’s well-funded, predominantly Jewish western half. More than 20 percent of this budget was directed towards educational projects, expressing an understanding at the national level that education is an effective way for creating social mobility.
Topic:
Education, Labor Issues, and Citizenship
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

276. (Un)Making Masculinities: Tracing How Men’s Responses to Violence Impact the Home in the Occupied West Bank

Author:
Lottie Kissick-Jones
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
The methods of indigenous ‘elimination’ implemented by settler colonial Israel are more complex than the physical eviction of Palestinians from their homes, though this indeed remains crucial. Through my primary research in the occupied West Bank, it has been evident that structural and direct violence against cities, communities, and families is systematically implemented and nurtured with the objective of breaking down social support systems and challenging normative gender roles to create unlivable conditions for Palestinians. The performance of Palestinian masculinity offers a crucial target for gendered modes of Israel’s colonial violence. I propose that the home is closely interlinked to identity formations, such as gender, which makes it a pertinent sphere for studying a settler colonial agenda that is constructed upon the eradication of both Palestinian identity and space. My research confronts three levels of interaction with the occupation: physical violence against the home, indirect forms of violence that permeate into the home through the bodies of men, and, finally, inter-communal violence. These categories of violence collectively challenge the ability of Palestinian men to uphold normative patriarchal roles constructed within cultural and religious frameworks, such as the ‘protector’ and ‘provider.’ In the case of male family members failing to protect their friends and family, particularly within the space of the home, there is a breakdown of important forms of social power, and an environment of shame is cultivated – a ‘social death.’ Therefore, my research has revealed that men are forced to choose between two dominant languages in these instances: 1) violence and 2) self-isolation. Both responses hold the ability to break down local mechanisms of support and solidarity. This article will target one level of violence – physical violence enacted against Palestinian homes ­– and how such violence nurtures the breakdown of Palestinian masculinity, particularly Palestinian men’s role as ‘protectors.’ Such a study offers an entrance to wider considerations of gender performances within this settler colonial context.
Topic:
Violence, Settler Colonialism, Masculinity, and Identity
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and West Bank

277. Interview with Lex Takkenberg

Author:
Elom Tettey-Tamaklo
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
Lex Takkenberg is currently a Senior Advisor with Arab Renaissance for Democracy and Development (ARDD) and a non-resident Professor at the Institute of International Humanitarian Affairs, Fordham University. He worked with UNRWA, the UN agency for Palestinian refugees, from 1989 until late 2019, most recently as the first Chief of its Ethics Office. Prior to that, Lex held a range of other positions with UNRWA, including as General Counsel, (agency-wide) Director of Operations, and (Deputy) Field Director in Gaza and Syria. A law graduate from the University of Amsterdam, Lex obtained a Doctorate in International Law from the University of Nijmegen, the Netherlands, after having successfully defended my doctoral dissertation entitled The Status of Palestinian Refugees in International Law. When the Russo-Ukrainian war broke out in February 2022, the world was horrified as we watched, in real-time, Russia violate international legal instruments[i] and invade Ukrainian sovereign territory. As Russian armored vehicles rolled into Ukraine, and cities were shelled, Russia initiated a war that has left thousands dead and hundreds of thousands more displaced.[ii] In the midst of such horror, humanity showed the best of itself as allied countries, international relief organizations, NGOs, and individuals quickly responded to the crisis by providing asylum for the ballooning number of refugees the war had created. Under the 1951 Refugee Convention,[iii] refugees everywhere are guaranteed rights and protections, which include the right of non-refoulment, the right not to be punished for entering into another territory legally, and the basic rights to education, housing, and public relief, amongst others, which to a large extent has been upheld for Ukrainian refugees, including the provision of temporary protection status[iv] across the European Union. Whilst the herculean efforts at ameliorating the Ukrainian refugee crisis and providing aid to the displaced are laudable, it raises the question about the status of other refugee situations globally. The ongoing Palestinian refugee question is the most protracted refugee situation in modern history and, as such, deserving of attention. In this interview, I speak to Lex Takkenberg – the first Chief of Ethics for UNRWA and the leading expert on international law, and the question of Palestine about the current status of Palestinian refugees.
Topic:
International Law, Refugees, Crisis Management, Interview, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

278. UNRWA’s Reckoning: Preserving the UN Agency Serving Palestinian Refugees

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Millions of Palestinian refugees rely on the UN Relief and Works Agency for services and employment opportunities. But the agency’s finances are in dire straits, putting the refugees’ wellbeing at risk. Donors should step up with sustainable, predictable, multi-year funding.
Topic:
United Nations, Refugees, and United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA)
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

279. Note on the Present Situation in Ukraine and in Israel and Gaza

Author:
Paolo Cotta-Ramusino
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs
Abstract:
In this dramatic period, severe conflicts are endangering global security. It is important to reduce heavily these conflicts and restore a path for peace and security. It will not be an easy task, but it is important that Pugwash make its contribution to the goal of peace in whatever way possible. In any case the most important decision to be made is an immediate ceasefire followed by suitable negotiations. Let us discuss briefly the two most relevant and dangerous current conflicts: the war in Ukraine and the war in Gaza and Israel. The number of people killed and wounded, both civilian and military, is growing daily, and the numbers mentioned below are just provisional data.
Topic:
Security, Armed Conflict, Russia-Ukraine War, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

280. On the goals of the war – between national security and personal security

Author:
Gabi Siboni
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
While Israel must show absolute commitment to the release of all the hostages, collective national security must be its top priority. The political echelon needs to make it clear to the public and the families of the hostages that it is imperative to stick to priorities in the war on Hamas. It is only by achieving military and political victory that Israel will create the conditions for the release of all the hostages.
Topic:
National Security, 2023 Gaza War, and Hostages
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza