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1061. Central banks and capital flows

Author:
Stephen Grenville
Publication Date:
02-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Sudden capital outflows were at the heart of the 1997-8 Asian Crisis. Ten years later, capital flows are back on the policy agenda, but in a very different context. The countries of East Asia are now getting more inflows than they can effectively absorb and the upward pressure on exchange rates is unwelcome.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
Israel and Asia

1062. Rebuilding Israeli-Palestinian Negotiations

Author:
C. David Welch
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Council of American Ambassadors
Abstract:
On November 27, 2007, President George W. Bush brought together Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas at the US Naval Academy in Annapolis, Maryland to launch renewed Israeli-Palestinian negotiations with the shared aspiration of concluding a permanent status agreement by the end of 2008. This landmark event demonstrated the commitment of the United States and of the parties themselves to realize President Bush's vision, first articulated in June 2002, of two states living side-by-side in peace and security. More than 40 Foreign Ministers attended the conference, representing a broad swathe of the international community including traditional European allies, 15 Arab states (plus the Palestinian Authority), and important Muslim states such as Indonesia, Malaysia and Pakistan. In a sense, Annapolis was the culmination of US and Quartet efforts that were reinvigorated following Israel's war with Hezbollah in the summer of 2006. But most importantly, Annapolis was the starting point for political negotiations now underway. Only such negotiations can lead to the establishment of an independent, viable, peaceful and prosperous Palestinian state that can be a source of stability and security for Israel and the broader Middle East.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:
Pakistan, United States, Malaysia, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Maryland

1063. Memory and Violence in Israel/Palestine

Author:
K.M. Fierke
Publication Date:
01-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Human Rights and Human Welfare - Review Essays
Institution:
Josef Korbel Graduate School of International Studies, University of Denver
Abstract:
In 2008, Israel will turn sixty. Landmark birthdays often give rise to reflection on the past. In this case, questions about memory, and whose memory to privilege or commemorate, may have consequences for the future of the region. For the Israelis, the object of memory, and the vehicle of its birth, was the 1948 “War of Independence,” where like David and Goliath, a numerically smaller but technologically and culturally superior power, faced down a larger but inferior one. Following just a few years after the Holocaust in Europe, Israel's military victory offered, in the words of Nahum Goldman, an American Zionist leader, “a glorious contrast to the centuries of persecution and humiliation, of adaptation and compromise” (Shlaim 2000: 40). For Palestinians, and Arabs more generally, the Israeli narrative is not merely offensive but a source of humiliation itself, given the “ethnic cleansing” of Palestinians that occurred during al Nakba (the Catastrophe), with the dispossession of over 750,000 indigenous inhabitants of Palestine and their descendents. For Palestinians, the failure of the Israeli state to ac knowledge 1948 as an ethnic cleansing continues to underpin the conflict.
Political Geography:
America, Europe, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

1064. EU and U.S. Free Trade Agreements in the Middle East and North Africa

Author:
Riad al Khouri
Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The political situation in much of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is subject to persistent tension due to the Arab–Israeli conflict, the war in Iraq and its spillovers to other countries, and sporadic upsurges of terrorism. In addition, some countries face serious domestic political tensions, a lack of political openness, and the increasing popularity of Islamist opposition groups. Economically, fast demographic and labor force expansion has led to high un- employment and slow growth in per capita incomes. Unsustainable management of the environment and natural resources further threatens prospects for long-term economic growth. In this context, increased economic cooperation between the MENA countries, on the one hand, and the United States and the European Union (EU), on the other, aims not only at promoting growth and development but also at fostering more stable political environments.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance and Markets
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Middle East, Israel, Arabia, and North Africa

1065. Sunset for the Two-State Solution?

Author:
Nathan J. Brown
Publication Date:
05-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The Bush administration is using its final months to try to gain agreement on a twostate solution to the Israeli–Palestinian conflict—but much of the framework supporting a two-state solution has collapsed. In January 2009, a new American administration will face a series of bleak choices. It may still be possible to revive a two-state solution, but it will require the emergence of a more viable and unified Palestinian leadership. Rather than pretending that an agreement is possible now, it would be far better if U.S. efforts in the remainder of this calendar year began to address the underlying problems.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, and Foreign Exchange
Political Geography:
United States, America, Middle East, and Israel

1066. FROM THE EDITOR

Author:
Rashid I. Khalidi
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Palestine Studies
Institution:
Institute for Palestine Studies
Abstract:
Sixty years ago the Zionist movement launched an all-out military offensive to establish a Jewish state in a country with a two-thirds Arab majority. Victories followed in quick succession as the well-organized,well-armed Haganah battled poorly coordinated Arab irregulars and local militias. On 18 April 1948, after the prelude of the Dayr Yasin massacre and the conquest of Arab villages in the Jerusalem corridor, the mixed Arab-Jewish town of Tiberias was captured and its entire Arab population bused to Transjordan. The attack against the Arab quarters of Haifa, Palestine's largest city, followed almost immediately; Haifa fell on 22 April. With the conquest of Arab Jaffa several weeks later, the fate of Palestine was sealed, and on 14 May 1948, the State of Israel was proclaimed. This issue of JPS commemorates this first crucial phase of the 1948 war with two articles about those first key Zionist victories: Mustafa Abbasi's “The End of Arab Tiberias” and a reissue of Walid Khalidi's landmark 1959 article, “The Fall of Haifa,” with a new introduction and footnotes by the author. The two articles have different approaches, with Abbasi focusing especially on the background to the tragedy, tracing the deterioration of relations between Tiberias's Jewish and Palestinian communities, and Khalidi concentrating more on the immediate military and diplomatic background of the attack on Haifa and the progress of the battle itself. Both articles, however, highlight the extraordinary collusion between the Haganah and Britain, which in each case virtually turned the cities over to the Zionists. Sixty years after the Nakba, the political and physical fragmentation of what is left of Arab Palestine continues apace. The Palestinian national movement, meanwhile, is in tatters. The West Bank under the Palestinian Authority and Gaza under Hamas are totally cut off from one another. Gaza is under a draconian siege, facing a humanitarian disaster. With the PA leadership increasingly discredited by its cooperation with Israel, and internal Hamas leaders weakened by popular disapproval of their Gaza takeover, the need for reconciliation between the two has become urgent. Against this background, Hamas politbureau chief Khalid Mishal looms larger on the international stage. Mishal's extended interview with JPS, part I of which appears in the current issue, is thus particularly timely. While most interviews with the Hamas leader focus on the current situation, JPS has taken a longer view, foregrounding in particular his political formation, the influences that shaped him, and the founding of Hamas. The issue also contains the second installment of JPS's new Congressional Monitor, cataloguing all the initiatives pertaining to Israel and Palestine in the first session of the 110th U.S. Congress (January 2007 to January 2008). Once again, the cumulative impact of the initiatives is sobering, with little expected to change in the future. Finally, for the record, a special document file contains the main documents associated with the Annapolis Conference of November 2007.
Political Geography:
Israel, Palestine, Jerusalem, and Gaza

1067. INTERVIEW (PART I): Khalid Mishal: The Making of a Palestinian Islamic Leader

Author:
Mouin Rabbani
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Palestine Studies
Institution:
Institute for Palestine Studies
Abstract:
Khalid Mishal (Abu Walid), a founder of the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) and the head of its politbureau since 1996, has been the recognized head of the movement since the assassination of Shaykh Ahmad Yasin in spring 2004. Despite his considerable influence within the organization, at least dating back to the early 1990s, Mishal did not attract attention in the West until he survived Israel's botched assassination attempt in Amman in September 1997, which made headlines when King Hussein (with possible help from U.S. President Bill Clinton) compelled Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu to provide the antidote to the poison with which he had been injected in broad daylight by Mossad agents disguised as Canadian tourists. Mishal's prominence has only increased following the Hamas victory in the January 2006 legislative elections in the occupied territories. Despite the U.S.-led campaign to isolate the Islamist movement internationally, Mishal has functioned as the main interlocutor with regional and international actors seeking direct or informal contact with the organization, as well as with the international media.
Political Geography:
United States and Israel

1068. The Past as Prelude? Negotiating the Palestinian Refugee Issue

Author:
Rex Brynen
Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
The question of Palestinian refugees has long been one of the most difficult issues in dispute in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. With the onset of renewed peace talks following the Annapolis summit of November 2007, it is once again an issue that the Israeli and Palestinian negotiators must address. The two sides are in a worse position to resolve the issue than they were during the last rounds of permanent status negotiations in 2000–01. The political weakness of the Israeli and Palestinian governments is compounded by heightened mistrust between the two societies, as well as by a hardening of Israeli public attitudes against even the symbolic return of any refugees to Israeli territory. There is now a substantial accumulated body of work on the Palestinian refugee issue to guide and inform negotiators and policy-makers. This includes past official negotiations among the key parties, wider discussions among regional states and the international donor community, unofficial and Track II initiatives and a considerable body of technical analysis.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Law, and Migration
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

1069. Israeli Perspectives on the Palestinian Refugee Issue

Author:
Orit Gal
Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
At the beginning of the Oslo Process the greatest challenge was the question of Palestinian statehood; negotiation of the refugee issue was postponed until the later stages. Over a decade later, Palestinian statehood is generally accepted as a given, and the refugee issue has taken centre stage. The Israeli perspective, from a leadership standpoint, is seemingly characterized by a sense of being overwhelmed, owing to the complexity of elements making up the refugee issue, the multiplicity of actors involved, and a heightened sense of uncertainty as to the consequences of any negotiated settlement. More strategic work is needed at the political and policy-making level to determine the resolution level required for the agreement itself. Much of the detail involved will have to be developed outside the main negotiation framework. More research and strategy development work is needed concerning the Israeli public domain, to assess existing attitudes and possible avenues for widening the public discourse. To this end, the Israeli media should also be encouraged to present the different debates and elements of the issue. There is a need for an international task force of leading experts working alongside the negotiation process and translating both sides' strategic options into operational frameworks. Such support could ease the load on the actual negotiating parties, thereby facilitating the decision-making process.
Topic:
International Cooperation and Migration
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

1070. Ruling Palestine II: The West Bank Model?

Publication Date:
07-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
In June 2007, as Hamas took control of Gaza and a new government was formed in the West Bank, observers ventured two scenarios. The West Bank might become a model, whose economic revival and improved relations with Israel and the wider world contrasted with Gaza's sorry fate; or, given continued occupation and the structural dysfunctionality of the Palestinian Authority (PA), it would see little progress. Both were wrong. Under Salam Fayyad's competent leadership, it has made gains, particularly in law and order.
Topic:
Government
Political Geography:
Israel