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2. Palestine: Public Opinion Report 2023, Part 2
- Author:
- Khalil Shikaki
- Publication Date:
- 02-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Arab Barometer
- Abstract:
- Palestinians see the Israeli occupation as the most critical threat facing Palestine and their most preferred countries are Turkey, Qatar, and China. In a comparison between China's and U.S. foreign policies, the Palestinian public views China's policies more positively than those of the U.S. on all issues at hand. Wide-ranging opposition to Arab normalization with Israel remains as strong as it was two years ago, but most express optimism about the world's solidarity with the Palestinians, and the vast majority expresses opposition to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. These are the results of the latest wave of the Arab Barometer (AB) poll in Palestine, the 8th to be conducted since the start of these polls in the Arab World. The poll was conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip essentially during the period immediately before the start of the October the 7th war in the Gaza Strip and its envelop on the Israeli side. The period leading up to the poll witnessed a number of important developments, including the 30th anniversary of the signing of the Oslo Accords. The period saw a rise in the number of Israeli incursions into Palestinian cities and refugee camps, particularly in the northern parts of the West Bank. During this period, Palestinian factional leaders met in City of El Alamein in Egypt in the presence of President Abbas but failed to agree on a joint statement. During this period, settler terrorist acts in Palestinian areas of the West Bank increased, as did armed attacks by Palestinians against settlers and Israelis. Finally, there have been press reports that there are US-Saudi negotiations to reach an agreement to normalize SaudiIsraeli relations and that Palestinian-Saudi and Palestinian-American meetings have been held to set Palestinian conditions for this normalization agreement. This report is the second in a series of reports that cover the findings of the current wave of AB. It addresses one important issues covered by AB8: Palestinian perception of various international and regional actors and other international relations issues. While the focus is placed on the findings of AB8 regarding these topics, the report sets to compare these findings with those obtained by PSR in AB7, conducted two years earlier, and one poll conducted after AB8.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Public Opinion, Normalization, and October 7
- Political Geography:
- China, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Qatar
3. The Impact of Different Basic Trust Types During Critical Situations: The Case of Saudi Arabia and Kuwait
- Author:
- Tamer Kasikci and Mustafa Yetim
- Publication Date:
- 08-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Uluslararasi Iliskiler
- Institution:
- International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
- Abstract:
- The primary objective of this study is to elucidate the impact of ontological security on states’ foreign policy preferences. The study posits that foreign policy preferences are closely related with their basic trust, a product of the intricate interplay between actor’s agentic capacity and its internal and external environment. This theoretical proposition is subsequently subjected to comparative examination within the contexts of Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. The study contends that despite sharing similar concerns regarding physical and ontological security, these two actors have pursued distinct foreign policy trajectories regarding the Arab uprisings and normalization with Israel that owe to differing types of basic trust. In doing so, the study aims to contribute to the ontological security literature from two perspectives: 1) to refine and elucidate the scope of the basic trust concept by reinterpreting it and highlighting its central role in ontological security analysis, and 2) to contribute to the practical applications of the field by applying the concepts developed in the ontological security literature to case studies of Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Arab Spring, and Normalization
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia
4. Implications of a Security Pact with Saudi Arabia
- Author:
- Paul R. Pillar
- Publication Date:
- 06-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
- Abstract:
- The Biden administration is seeking a deal in which Saudi Arabia would extend full diplomatic recognition to Israel in exchange for the United States providing Saudi Arabia a security guarantee, assistance in developing a nuclear program, and more unrestricted arms sales. Such an arrangement would further enmesh the United States in Middle Eastern disputes and intensify regional divisions. It would work against a favorable pattern of regional states working out their differences when the United States leaves them on their own — illustrated by the Chinese-brokered détente between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Besides being an authoritarian state lacking shared values with the United States, Saudi Arabia under Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) has aggressively pursued regional dominance, most notably with its highly destructive war in Yemen. A U.S. security guarantee could motivate MBS to engage in even riskier behavior and draw the United States into conflicts in which it has no stake, such as the sectarian dispute that had led Saudi Arabia to break relations with Iran. An expanded Saudi nuclear program would have a military as well as an energy dimension, with MBS having openly expressed interest in nuclear weapons. Granting the Saudi demand for help in enriching uranium would be a blow to the global nonproliferation regime as well as a reversal of longstanding U.S. policy. A race in nuclear capabilities between Iran and Saudi Arabia may result. Meeting MBS’ demands would not curb Saudi relations with China, which are rooted in strong economic and other interests. The United States could compete more effectively with China in the region not by taking on additional security commitments but instead by emulating the Chinese in engaging all regional states in the interest of reducing tensions. Normalization of diplomatic relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia would not be a peace agreement, given the already extensive security cooperation between them. Even the gift of normalization with Riyadh would be unlikely to soften Israel’s hard-line positions regarding the war in Gaza and the larger Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and instead would only reduce further Israeli motivation to resolve that conflict.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, National Security, Conflict, Normalization, Joe Biden, and Military
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Saudi Arabia, and United States of America
5. Israeli, Palestinian, and American relations: Now and in the future (Session 3)
- Author:
- Peter Krause
- Publication Date:
- 11-2024
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- MIT Center for International Studies
- Abstract:
- The struggle over normalization and the future of American-Arab-Israeli relations in the MENA region
- Topic:
- International Relations, Normalization, Israeli–Palestinian Conflict, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and United States of America
6. Exaggerations, Obstacles and Opportunities: The Saudi Arabian Position in the Gaza War
- Author:
- Aziz Alghashian
- Publication Date:
- 09-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
- Abstract:
- The paper aims to shed light on the obstacles and opportunities of Saudi involvement in a future Palestinian-Israeli peace process. It first explains the enigmatic nature of Saudi communication towards Israel and explains why Saudi pragmatism has been misunderstood. The paper also explains the rationale behind Saudi Arabia’s willingness to normalize relations with Israel, and that Saudi-Israeli normalization is treated as a gateway to a larger game-changing strategic treaty with the United States, rather than a keenness to cooperate with Israel itself. In addition, the paper argues that while the Saudi ruling elite are willing to play financial and security roles in “reconstructing” Gaza, it is unforeseeable that this will ensue without a credible peace process that can justify these efforts, especially against the backdrop of Saudi Arabia’s restructuring of its own economy. The paper then explains the ways in which Saudi Arabia, Gulf Arab states, and European states can help cooperate in areas such as building a Palestinian economic horizon that can strengthen the Palestinian-Israeli political framework; developing Palestinian-Israeli green cooperation; and developing an Arab-Israeli network of academics, experts, and journalists that can be an intersection of top-down and bottom-up projects that aim to reach a two-state solution.
- Topic:
- Bilateral Relations, Normalization, 2023 Gaza War, and Peace Process
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and Saudi Arabia
7. Saudi Normalization with Israel, Domestic 'Transformation,' and U.S. Policy
- Author:
- Robert Satloff
- Publication Date:
- 05-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Prospects for a Saudi-Israel diplomatic breakthrough appear to have cooled lately amid Riyadh’s rapprochement with Tehran and domestic ferment in Israel. But a narrow focus on these obstacles misses deeper, more encouraging trend lines, including Saudi public receptivity to people-to-people contact already underway in business and sports. Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman has stirringly referred to Israel as a “potential ally,” and the transformative post-oil future he is mapping out for the kingdom offers the promise of bilateral cooperation in commerce, high-tech, and tourism, among other sectors. Notwithstanding Riyadh’s deal with Iran, the Saudis and Israelis still share a common threat in the Islamic Republic and a common interest to address it. The key to a Saudi-Israel normalization agreement, writes Segal Executive Director Robert Satloff in this new Institute Policy Note, is the U.S. role. While cautioning that a “Sadat to Jerusalem” moment is unrealistic for Saudi Arabia and Israel in the near future, especially given competing priorities for Riyadh, he argues that President Biden could—if he so chooses—negotiate a historic three-way, win-win-win arrangement that not only establishes formal Saudi-Israel relations but also advances a range of important American interests.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Reform, Democracy, Normalization, and Israeli–Palestinian Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Saudi Arabia, United States of America, and Gulf Nations
8. The Rise and Immediate Fall of Israel-Libya Relations
- Author:
- Ben Fishman
- Publication Date:
- 08-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On August 27, Israeli foreign minister Eli Cohen revealed that he had met with his Libyan counterpart Najla al-Mangoush in Rome, sparking an imbroglio in both of their countries and further abroad. Protests erupted immediately across Libya, including at the Foreign Ministry and the residence of Prime Minister Abdulhamid al-Dabaiba, who likely authorized the meeting. Dabaiba tried to calm the situation by suspending Mangoush and naming an interim foreign minister, while his Government of National Unity (GNU) called the incident a chance encounter alongside Italy’s foreign minister rather than a planned meeting. As protests continued on August 28, Dabaiba appeared at the Palestinian embassy in Tripoli, where he donned a scarf depicting the Dome of the Rock, announced that he had officially dismissed Mangoush, and reiterated Libya’s dedication to the Palestinian cause. Fearing further backlash and potential violence, Mangoush fled to Istanbul. Unlike her predecessors, who were experienced diplomats familiar with Libya’s byzantine Foreign Ministry, Mangoush had no diplomatic background. Dabaiba appointed her in March 2021 only after another female candidate drew criticism, and she faced a unique challenge as a woman among exclusively male foreign ministers across the region. She lacked a power base of her own and wielded narrow influence outside of what Dabaiba and his circle granted her. Yet she was resilient during her first two years in office, surviving calls for her resignation over controversial statements criticizing Turkey’s military presence in Libya, praising Russia’s positive relationship with the GNU, and cooperating with the United States on the extradition of a Pan Am 103 bombing suspect (see below). The State Department named her an International Woman of Courage in 2022, citing her work with civil society organizations and her expertise in conflict resolution (gained in part from PhD work at George Mason University).
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, and Normalization
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Libya, and North Africa
9. Morocco and North Africa Are Feeling Anti-Normalization Ripples from the Gaza War
- Author:
- Sabina Henneberg
- Publication Date:
- 10-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The conflict will make it more difficult for Washington and Israel to preserve—let alone expand—the diplomatic progress they have made with North African governments in recent years, particularly as public opposition intensifies. North Africa has not been spared from the reverberations of the Hamas-Israel war. Morocco may be the country most profoundly affected given its relatively strong relations with Israel and the United States, while anti-normalization trends elsewhere in the region are being firmly reinforced, creating new challenges for Washington.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Public Opinion, Conflict, Normalization, and Hamas
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, North Africa, and Morocco
10. Impacts of Saudi-Israel Relations on the Middle East: An Analysis
- Author:
- Zahid Yaseen, Muhammad Muzaffar, and Kinza Tariq
- Publication Date:
- 07-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Political Studies
- Institution:
- Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
- Abstract:
- This qualitative study aims to analyze the impact of Saudi-Israel relations on the Middle East. The study also focused on the reaction of Arab countries to their bilateral ties and incidents that have arisen in the Middle East as a direct result of tensions between Saudi Arabia and Israel. The deteriorating condition of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia wreaked havoc throughout the region. The United States plays a pivotal role in the politics of the Middle East; therefore, a nation that is willing to operate as the United States' right hand was sorely needed in the region. Israel, a country that is not recognized on a global scale, has set up shop in that vacated seat. Together, they aid proxy wars between Saudi Arabia and Iran, which contributes to instability in the region. The only thing that could diminish the damage would be a concerted effort by Muslim states against Israel.
- Topic:
- Politics, Bilateral Relations, Normalization, and Instability
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Saudi Arabia
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