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121. Sunset for the Two-State Solution?

Author:
Nathan J. Brown
Publication Date:
05-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The Bush administration is using its final months to try to gain agreement on a twostate solution to the Israeli–Palestinian conflict—but much of the framework supporting a two-state solution has collapsed. In January 2009, a new American administration will face a series of bleak choices. It may still be possible to revive a two-state solution, but it will require the emergence of a more viable and unified Palestinian leadership. Rather than pretending that an agreement is possible now, it would be far better if U.S. efforts in the remainder of this calendar year began to address the underlying problems.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, and Foreign Exchange
Political Geography:
United States, America, Middle East, and Israel

122. The Past as Prelude? Negotiating the Palestinian Refugee Issue

Author:
Rex Brynen
Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
The question of Palestinian refugees has long been one of the most difficult issues in dispute in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. With the onset of renewed peace talks following the Annapolis summit of November 2007, it is once again an issue that the Israeli and Palestinian negotiators must address. The two sides are in a worse position to resolve the issue than they were during the last rounds of permanent status negotiations in 2000–01. The political weakness of the Israeli and Palestinian governments is compounded by heightened mistrust between the two societies, as well as by a hardening of Israeli public attitudes against even the symbolic return of any refugees to Israeli territory. There is now a substantial accumulated body of work on the Palestinian refugee issue to guide and inform negotiators and policy-makers. This includes past official negotiations among the key parties, wider discussions among regional states and the international donor community, unofficial and Track II initiatives and a considerable body of technical analysis.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Law, and Migration
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

123. Interview with Itamar Rabinovich: Walking the Tightrope of Middle East Diplomacy

Author:
Michael Mylrea
Publication Date:
09-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
al Nakhlah
Institution:
The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:
In an attempt to revive peace talks, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert recently met with Palestinian Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas at his residence in Jerusalem. Once again, Palestinian and Israeli leaders appear to be at an important crossroads. Is peace on the horizon? Or will violence erupt? Tough questions loom ominously. The complex environment of Middle East diplomacy is like walking a tightrope, where each negotiation rests on a delicate balance between peace and war. As Israel's former Ambassador to the United States and Chief Negotiator to Syria, Itamar Rabinovich has walked this tightrope, negotiating through some of Israel's most challenging times. Former Ambassador Rabinovich sat down with al Nakhlah to shed light on his diplomatic experience, offering important lessons from the past and his unique perspective on the future challenges and opportunities in the Middle East.
Topic:
International Relations and Diplomacy
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

124. The New Arab Diplomacy: Not With the U.S. and Not Against the U.S.

Author:
Marina Ottaway and Mohammed Herzallah
Publication Date:
07-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Many Arab countries traditionally aligned with the United States are showing increasing reluctance to follow Washington's lead in addressing regional problems. This tendency toward an independent foreign policy is particularly evident among the Gulf countries. Even states that host major U.S. military facilities on their soil, such as Qatar, Kuwait, and Bahrain, consider U.S. policy in the region counterproductive and are forging a new diplomacy. Gulf countries have refused to enter into an anti-Iranian alliance with the United States, and have chosen instead to pursue close diplomatic contacts with Tehran, although they fear its growing influence. They are trying to bring about reconciliation between Hamas and Fatah in Palestine, while the United States is seeking to isolate Hamas. They have helped negotiate a compromise solution in Lebanon, while the United States has encouraged the government to take a hardline position. Yet, the new diplomacy of the Arab countries is not directed against the United States, although it contradicts U.S. policie.
Topic:
Diplomacy
Political Geography:
United States, Washington, Middle East, Israel, Kuwait, Arabia, Bahrain, and Qatar

125. The keys to understanding the Israel-Russia

Author:
Pierre Razoux
Publication Date:
11-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
The world financial crisis, the Iranian crisis and the Georgian crisis illuminate through different prisms the complex relations between Israel and Russia.The seeming contradictions of this odd couple are a constant source of serious concern and perplexity to theWestern world, and to NATO in particular, all the more so since Russia sent its army into Georgia and is back on the world stage as an essential player.Why is it that only six weeks after the verbal clash over the Georgian crisis in August 2008 (when Russia accused Israel of having armed and trained the Georgian army), Russia and Israel abolished their visa regulations, thus facilitating reciprocal trade? How do we explain the acceleration of capital flows between the two countries, at a time when world trade is clearly slowing down? And why is it that Moscow, after Washington, is still a destination of choice of Israeli prime ministers, while the Israeli authorities continue to insist that Israel has a special relationship with the United States? Are we to infer from this, then, that Israel and Russia are upgrading their strategic ties, as a popular Turkish magazine suggests ? Lastly, why was Israel one of the very few states in the Middle East to maintain regular relations with Russia after the ColdWar, unlike the many Arab states who coldshouldered their former arms supplier just as it was preparing to deliver sophisticated missile systems to Syria and a nuclear power station to Iran? For many observers, trapped in Cold War thinking, it was impossible to imagine Israel and Russia, the USSR's successor, as anything other than irreconcilable adversaries. This perception of Israel as the West's champion against Sovietsupported Arab countries overlooked the fact that the Arab-Israeli conflict arose from a regional conflict that went way beyond the confines of East-West confrontation. It also failed to take into account the deep and longstanding bonds between Israel and Russia, particularly in the area of immigration.
Topic:
Diplomacy and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Middle East, Israel, Arabia, and Syria

126. Palestine Divided - Middle East Briefing

Publication Date:
12-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The current reconciliation process between the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) and Palestinian National Liberation Movement (Fatah) is a continuation of their struggle through other means. The goals pursued by the two movements are domestic and regional legitimacy, together with consolidation of territorial control – not national unity. This is understandable. At this stage, both parties see greater cost than reward in a compromise that would entail loss of Gaza for one and an uncomfortable partnership coupled with an Islamist foothold in the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO) for the other. Regionally, Syria – still under pressure from Washington and others in the Arab world – has little incentive today to press Hamas to compromise, while Egypt and Saudi Arabia are tilting more pointedly toward Fatah. It will take significant shifts in domestic, regional and international attitudes for this to change. Palestine's political-territorial division, now over a year old, is set to endure.
Topic:
Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Washington, Middle East, Israel, Arabia, Gaza, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Egypt

127. Case studies in Chinese diplomacy

Author:
Stuart Harris
Publication Date:
12-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Australian National University Department of International Relations
Abstract:
This paper aims to examine China's changing diplomacy. To do this it considers how China is approaching its diplomacy in a number of specific contexts. The examples chosen to illustrate its more nuanced diplomacy are the US—China relationship; China's relations with Latin America; the Six-Party-Talks over North Korea's nuclear ambitions; China's concerns about energy security and its relations with 'unsavoury' regimes; and China's relations with its neighbours.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:
China, Israel, East Asia, Asia, and Latin America

128. Looking Back and Looking Forward: North Korea, Northeast Asia and the ROK-U.S. Alliance

Author:
Hyeong Jung Park
Publication Date:
12-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
Following the inauguration of the Bush administration in 2001, South Korea and the United States entered into a period of dissonance and even mutual repugnance. It began with differences in North Korea policy in 2001, and expanded into other areas. The Bush administration's mismanagement ignited a surge of anti-Americanism in South Korea, which in turn led to a round of Korea-bashing in the United States.
Topic:
International Relations, Diplomacy, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
United States, Israel, East Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and Korea

129. PolicyWatch #1312: Bush at Annapolis: Hints about the Final Thirteen Months

Author:
Robert Satloff
Publication Date:
12-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The Annapolis summit featured an impressive display of international support for renewed Israeli-Palestinian negotiations. Beyond the headlines and photo-ops, the most significant aspect of the event was that President Bush offered little sign he plans to devote the final months of his administration to a high-stakes personal quest for a permanent peace treaty between the two parties.
Topic:
Diplomacy
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, and Israel

130. PolicyWatch #1309: Confidence Building after Annapolis

Author:
David Makovsky
Publication Date:
11-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
In recent weeks, the United States has reduced expectations that the upcoming Annapolis peace conference will culminate in a diplomatic breakthrough for all parties after almost seven years of terror, violence, and non-engagement. Instead, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice seeks to revive the moribund 2003 Roadmap, and introduce a new dual-track approach. She wants the parties to implement the first phase of the Roadmap, which deals with modifying the behavior of both sides, while simultaneously -- rather than sequentially according to the 2003 plan -- negotiate the third phase, which deals with the final status issues such as Jerusalem, refugees, borders, and security.
Topic:
Diplomacy
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, and Israel