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111. Countering Iran in the Gray Zone: What the United States Should Learn from Israel’s Operations in Syria

Author:
Ilan Goldenberg, Nicholas Heras, Kaleigh Thomas, and Jennie Matuschak
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:
Since the Islamic Revolution in 1979 and especially since the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003, Iran has become highly proficient in using its surrogates and proxies across the Middle East as a tool to achieve its interests while avoiding direct conflict with the United States. Successive U.S. presidents have sought options for pushing back against this Iranian strategy but have struggled to find approaches that could deter Iran’s actions or degrade its capabilities. In most cases U.S. administrations have been hesitant to respond at all, for fear of starting a larger conflict. The recent killing of Qassim Soleimani represents the opposite problem, in which the United States and Iran came unnecessarily close to a much larger war. In contrast, Israel’s “campaign between the wars” (the Hebrew acronym is mabam) against Iran and Iranian-backed groups in Syria has been one of the most successful military efforts to push back against Iran in the “gray zone.” Since the start of the Syrian civil war in 2011, and especially since early 2017, Israel has conducted more than 200 airstrikes inside Syria against more than 1,000 targets linked to Iran and it’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force (IRGCQF), and against IRGC-QF backed groups such as the Lebanese Hezbollah. This campaign has slowed Iran’s military buildup in Syria while avoiding a broader regional conflagration that would have been damaging to Israel’s interests.1 This study examines Israel’s mabam campaign and asks what lessons the United States can draw and how they may be applied to future U.S. actions in gray zone conflicts, both against Iran and more broadly.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Military Affairs, Conflict, and Syrian War
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Syria

112. Ralph J. Bunche – U.N. Mediator in the Middle East and Nobel Laureate

Author:
Renee M. Earle
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
American Diplomacy
Institution:
American Diplomacy
Abstract:
This year marks the 70th anniversary of the first Nobel Peace Prize presented for efforts to achieve peace in the Middle East between Israel and Arab nations in Palestine. The recipient was Ralph Bunche, an American academic and diplomat with the U.N., who received the Peace Prize in 1950 for brokering the Israeli-Arab armistice agreements in 1949. The agreements ended the official hostilities of the 1948 Arab-Israeli War between Israel and Egypt, Jordan, Syria, and Lebanon and established armistice lines between Israeli and Arab nation forces that held until the 1967 Six-Day War. (This same seemingly intractable confrontation yielded two later Peace Prizes: to Anwar al-Sadat and Menachem Begin in 1978 and to Yassar Arafat, Shimon Peres, and Yitzhak Rabin in 1994.)
Topic:
Diplomacy, United Nations, Conflict, and Negotiation
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

113. After the Storm: Post-Pandemic Trends in the Southern Mediterranean

Author:
Andrei Kortunov, Paola Magri, Ines Abdel Razek, Andrey Chuprygin, Chiara Lovotti, Matteo Villa, Elena Corradi, Ivan Bocharov, and Ruslan Mamedov
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:
The Mediterranean region has faced a significant number of challenges that have stemmed from turbulent events taking place on its Southern shores: conflicts and instability, the migration crisis, disruptions of regional value chains, souring regional relations, and foreign power interferences that have severely affected the region. The Covid-19 pandemic wreaked havoc on the Southern Mediterranean, but the health crisis had ambiguous effects on the underlying economic, social, and political trends of the region. It has exposed and exacerbated much of the previous sources of tension and, obscured many of them as public attention moved towards facing the public health emergency. Will the Covid-19 pandemic spur governments and civil societies to action? Or will it just serve as another smokescreen behind which to hide the region's longstanding problems?
Topic:
Security, Energy Policy, Migration, Terrorism, Conflict, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Libya, Palestine, North Africa, Lebanon, Syria, and Mediterranean

114. The Rwandan Experience: How Palestine Can Benefit from It

Author:
Adv. Belal Al-Najjar
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Pal-Think For Strategic Studies
Abstract:
The Rwandan experience accomplished a success in dealing with conflicts, making an example for countries that are suffering from civil wars, internal divisions, or armed conflicts now. It demonstrates the ability to rebuild a modern state if an actual willingness is available in spite of the existence of tremendous historical epic violence, oppression or armed conflict. Since the beginning of the nineties, Rwanda has been the scene of the most horrific genocidal wars which caused nearly a million lives of people to be gone. These crimes prompted the resignation of President Bisi Mongo, who was unable to control the country after it plunged into chaos. As a result, a civil war broke out in Rwanda between the government and the Rwandan Patriotic Front. The Hutu majority confronted the Tutsi minority. Their conflict continued until the outbreak of a three-month genocidal war. The massacres, which occurred during the conflict period, are considered the fourth largest genocide in the modern history.
Topic:
Civil War, Genocide, Minorities, Discrimination, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Rwanda

115. The US and the Israeli –Palestinian Conflict: One-state solution, two-state solution or no solution at all?

Author:
Raffaella A. Del Sarto, Rashid Khalidi, Gideon Levy, and Cengiz Günay
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:
The online discussion explored the situation on the ground, elaborated on whether and how the Trump administration’s policies have impacted the conflict in the long-run, its repercussions on the broader Middle East region, and assess the role a Biden administration might play in the next future?
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Territorial Disputes, Conflict, Negotiation, Donald Trump, and Joe Biden
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and United States of America

116. Searching for COVID-19 Ceasefires: Conflict Zone Impacts, Needs, and Opportunities

Author:
Tyler Jess Thompson
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
On March 23, 2020, as COVID-19 was first appearing in many conflict-affected areas, U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres issued a call for warring parties to cease hostilities and instead wage battle against the pandemic. Drawing on an examination of conflicts in Afghanistan, Colombia, Cameroon, Israel and Palestine, Libya, the Philippines, Syria, Ukraine, and elsewhere—this report looks at how COVID-19 has affected conflict parties’ interests, positions, and capacities, and provides recommendation for how the international community leverage the pandemic to promote peace.
Topic:
United Nations, Conflict, Peace, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Ukraine, Israel, Libya, Philippines, Colombia, Palestine, Syria, Cameroon, and Global Focus

117. R2P Monitor, Issue 52, 15 July 2020

Author:
Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:
R2P Monitor is a bimonthly bulletin applying the atrocity prevention lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 52 looks at developments in Afghanistan, Cameroon, China, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mali and Burkina Faso, Myanmar (Burma), Syria, Yemen, Burundi, Central African Republic, Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territories, Libya, Nigeria, South Sudan and Venezuela.
Topic:
International Law, Conflict, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and Atrocities
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, China, Israel, Libya, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Palestine, Syria, Venezuela, Nigeria, Burundi, Mali, Myanmar, South Sudan, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Global Focus, and Burkina Faso

118. Secret Wars: Covert Conflict in International Politics, Austin Carson

Author:
Erik J. Dahl
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Political Science Quarterly
Institution:
Academy of Political Science
Abstract:
In this valuable new book, Austin Carson examines the phenomenon of covert military intervention, which he defines as occurring when an external major power secretly provides military assistance during war. Carson argues that such interventions are more common than might be expected and that they often lead to a puzzling dynamic, whereby an adversary detects the intervention but does not publicize it. Carson’s use of the term “covert” follows the conventional definition of government activities designed to conceal the actor’s role in that activity, but by focusing on covert military intervention, he is studying a phenomenon different from “covert action,” which in the American context usually refers to activities undertaken by the Central Intelligence Agency, rather than by military forces. This book is therefore a complement to other works on covert action, including Lindsey A. O’Rourke’s recent Covert Regime Change: America’s Secret Cold War.
Topic:
Military Intervention, Book Review, Conflict, and Political Science
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Russia, Ukraine, Israel, and United States of America

119. From Pariah to Partner: A View from Israel on a Realigned Middle East

Author:
Or Yissachar
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO)
Abstract:
FLight number LY971 on Monday 31 August 2020, was in many respects anything but a mundane commercial flight traveling to another Middle East destination. Traditionally, the Arab world’s maximum pressure campaign against Israel was designed not only to call into question its existence militarily, but crumble its legitimacy diplomatically – prohibiting Israeli citizens from entering their territories, banning Israeli and other airlines traveling to and from Tel Aviv from using their airspace, much less land in their airports, even referring to it merely as “the Zionist entity”. Much more fundamentally than technical disagreement over policy items or territorial arrangements, the Arab world has made clear what was best enunciated in the infamous 1967 Khartoum “Three No’s”: “No peace with Israel, no recognition of Israel, no negotiations with Israel.” Despite episodic under-the-radar contacts, the Arab world had operated under the assumption that any cracks in this well-fortified wall could have been constructed as de facto recognition of a country considered a red flag.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Territorial Disputes, Zionism, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

120. A Nation Divided: Palestinian Views on War and Peace with Israel

Author:
David Pollock
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Recently, much attention has focused on Israel’s drift away from a two-state solution and toward annexation of the West Bank. But hard data shows that the Palestinian public has also clearly moved away from the classic compromise peace deal with its neighbors. When the Trump peace plan was announced in January, it met with wide Palestinian condemnation. More troubling, majorities of Palestinians now oppose a two-state resolution to the conflict, a reversal from previous years. They also say that even if an agreement is reached, unlikely though that may be, it should not end the conflict. Still, surveys show Palestinian pragmatism on a range of short-term issues, from economic cooperation with Israel to compromising on the “right of return” for refugees. In this Policy Focus, filled with informative charts, polling expert David Pollock explores a decade’s worth of Palestinian views on everything from Jerusalem archaeological digs to West Bank annexation. The opinions illuminate dynamics far beyond the stalled peace process, while also hinting at openings where that process could begin anew.
Topic:
Territorial Disputes, Conflict, Peace, and Annexation
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine