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Begin New Search Political Geography Israel Publication Year within 25 Years

2501. Middle East Endgame I: Getting To A Comprehensive Arab-Israeli Peace Settlement

Publication Date:
07-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
President Bush, announcing U.S. policy towards the Israeli-Palestinian conflict on 24 June 2002, has set the terms of the international response to the conflict for the immediately foreseeable period. Before peace can be negotiated the violence has to stop. If the Palestinians are to have their own state – and the clear message is that they should – it must be one based on the principles of democracy, transparency and the rule of law. For that to happen the current leadership needs to go. The logic is sequential: political progress is conditional on a new security environment, institutional reform and, in effect, on regime change.
Topic:
Security, Human Rights, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arabia

2502. Global Economic Prospects

Author:
Michael Mussa
Publication Date:
09-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
The global economic recovery is continuing but at a somewhat slower pace than was anticipated six months ago. Specifically, using the country weights from the IMF's World Economic Outlook, the forecast for real GDP growth in the world economy during 2002 (i.e., on a fourth-quarter-to-fourth-quarter basis) is cut by about half a percentage point to 3 percent—a pace that is slightly below my estimate of the potential growth rate for world GDP. This downward revision reflects primarily slower growth than earlier expected during the first half of 2002 in most industrial countries and the expectation that growth will remain somewhat more sluggish than earlier expected at least through year-end. For 2003, the forecast for global economic growth is also cut by about half a percentage point—to 4 percent—reflecting both general factors suggesting slightly weaker performance in many industrial and developing countries and the particular economic risks arising from possible military action against Iraq and from potential credit events affecting key developing countries. Despite these downward revisions, however, there is little doubt that the world economy will see significant improvement this year from the 1 percent growth recorded in 2001, and it is still reasonable to expect further improvement to a growth rate modestly above global potential during 2003.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Europe, Israel, Asia, South America, Latin America, and North America

2503. The Looming Japanese Crisis

Author:
Adam S. Posen
Publication Date:
05-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
After more than a decade of economic stagnation and minimal structural change, Japan stands on the brink of outright financial crisis—the only debate is whether the Japanese government can dodge its imminent economic threats for another six months at most, or ride the wave of global expansion to throw still more money at these problems with decreasing effectiveness until the public debt becomes unsustainable (which should be no later than 2005). Either way, volatility in Japanese asset markets will be extremely high for the next 36 months, with significant declines on average in asset prices and the yen.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Japan, Israel, and East Asia

2504. The Future of North Korea

Author:
Marcus Noland
Publication Date:
05-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
The Korean peninsula has entered a period of considerable change and uncertainty. This paper attempts to sketch out how internal and external forces may shape outcomes in North Korea over the next several years. The range of plausible outcomes is huge, and the paper identifies four possible end states: successful reform and engagement, “muddling through,” elite conflict that could affect the nature of the state, if not the regime, and finally, mass mobilization that could threaten the regime itself. This analysis proceeds under a number of assumptions.
Topic:
Development, Government, and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:
Israel, East Asia, and North Korea

2505. Passive Savers and Fiscal Policy Effectiveness in Japan

Author:
Adam S. Posen and Kenneth N. Kuttner
Publication Date:
04-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
The efficacy of fiscal policy in Japan in the last decade has been a subject of considerable dispute, and the coincidence of mounting deficits and continued stagnation has led some to conclude that fiscal policy was ineffective. This paper finds ample support for the opposite conclusion: exogenous fiscal policy shocks (as derived from a structural vector-autoregression model) had pronounced real effects in Japan. Expansionary fiscal policy was expansionary, and contractionary policy contractionary, consistent with the implications of conventional macroeconomic theory. A historical decomposition shows that Japan's burgeoning public debt stems almost entirely from the recession-caused slowdown in revenue growth, and that fiscal policy was at times procyclical rather than consistently expansionary. Direct examination of the long-run relationship between private saving, taxes, and spending confirms that any Ricardian effects of future public liabilities on saving were insufficient to offset the direct first-order effects of taxes and public expenditures. The passivity of Japanese savers therefore seems to have contributed to the efficacy of fiscal policy; otherwise, some combination of increased saving, capital outflow, and higher interest rates would have diminished its impact.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Japan, Israel, and East Asia

2506. New Frontiers for U.S. - Japan Security Relations

Author:
Christopher J. Makins, L. Gordon Flake, and Akio Watanabe
Publication Date:
02-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
A strong U.S.-Japan security alliance remains in dispensable to the interests of both partners in East Asia and beyond. Through strategic cooperation, both formal and informal, the United States and Japan can achieve international objectives that would otherwise be out of reach. Bilateral cooperation also contributes to the kind of stable, predictable relations on which the increasingly interdependent economies of the East Asian region depend.
Topic:
Security and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, Israel, and East Asia

2507. The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict: Historical and Prospective Intervention Analyses

Author:
Bruce D. Jones
Publication Date:
05-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Carter Center
Abstract:
As we enter 2003, the Israeli-Palestinian context is defined by a series of inter- related phenomena: a continuing loss of Israeli and Palestinian lives; political turbulence (and some convergence) in Israel; progress, after much debate, on the question of reform and Chairman Arafat's leadership; a factional struggle for dominance of Palestinian popular politics; devastation of the Palestinian economy, and a lesser but still damaging corrosion of the Israeli economy; and public attitudes on both sides defined by the concept of “tactical hawks, strategic doves”—but with trends showing a worrying erosion of support for peaceful solutions. The international context is defined by growing consensus on substantive issues among international, Arab, and some U.S. officials; some remaining tactical and presentational differences within this group; a rise of anti-Semitic and anti-Arab attitudes; and uncertainty about the consequences of regime change in Iraq. The combination—alongside President Bush's decision to publish the Road Map following the confirmation of the new Palestinian Cabinet—potentially represents a turning point.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States, Israel, Palestine, and Arabia

2508. From Keiretsu to Startups: Japan's Push for High Tech Entrepreneurship

Author:
Henry Rowen and A. Maria Toyoda
Publication Date:
10-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
How much does it matter that Japan creates relatively few new high technology companies? Many observers estimate, or at least assume, that entrepreneurial dynamism and its associated innovations promote economic growth and in the long run are necessary for it. In recent years there has been much attention devoted to fostering such new firms in many countries, including Japan, with much of this interest derived from the example of Silicon Valley. Before the 1990s, after several decades of excellent performance by the Japanese industry, any observer noting that it had few new high tech companies would probably have met with indifference. Success spoke for itself. Now, after an economic plateau lasting over a decade, questions about the late and relatively small-scale emergence of high tech startups have become increasingly salient.
Topic:
Industrial Policy and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
Japan, Israel, East Asia, and Asia

2509. Inaugural Oksenberg Lecture: The United States and China: A President's Perspective. An address by Jimmy Carter

Author:
Jimmy Carter
Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
The Oksenberg Lectures honor the legacy of Professor Michel Oksenberg (1938–2001), Senior Fellow at the Asia/Pacific Research Center, professor of political science, and a foremost authority on China.
Topic:
Development
Political Geography:
China, Israel, East Asia, and Asia

2510. Foreign Penetration of Japan's Investment-Banking Market: Will Japan Experience the "Wimbledon Effect"?

Author:
Nicole Pole
Publication Date:
07-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
Foreign banks have long faced difficulties in attempting to enter certain Japanese financial markets. This is due partly to regulatory practices and partly to specific Japanese socioeconomic conditions, for instance the system of relationship banking. While retail banking is still a sector in which almost no foreigners have been able to succeed, some foreign financial institutions have been able to gain market share in investment and wholesale banking.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Japan, Israel, East Asia, and Asia