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1542. The Meanings of Palestinian Reform
- Publication Date:
- 11-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Since U.S. President George W. Bush's 24 June 2002 statement on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Palestinian reform has emerged as a key ingredient in Middle East diplomacy. In his statement, the president publicly identified “a new and different Palestinian leadership” and “entirely new political and economic institutions” as preconditions for the establishment of a Palestinian state. In early July, the Quartet of Middle East mediators (the European Union, Russian Federation, United Nations, and United States) established an International Task Force for Palestinian Reform “to develop and implement a comprehensive reform action plan” for the Palestinian Authority (PA). The September 2002 statement by the Quartet underscored reform of Palestinian political, civil, and security institutions as an integral component of peacemaking. The three phase-implementation roadmap, a U.S. draft of which was presented to Israel and the Palestinians by U.S. Assistant Secretary of State William Burns in October, provided details on this reform component.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Europe, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, and United Nations
1543. Old Games, New Rules: Conflict on the Israel-Lebanon Border
- Publication Date:
- 11-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The Israel-Lebanon border is the only Arab-Israeli front to have witnessed continuous violence since the late 1960s and it could become the trigger for a broader Arab-Israeli conflict. Yet, in recent times it has been the object of very little international focus. Amidst raging warfare between Israelis and Palestinians and mounting war-talk surrounding Iraq, there is scant energy to devote to a conflict that, since Israel's May 2000 withdrawal from Lebanon, appears devoid of justification and which neither of its principal protagonists seems interested in escalating. But ignoring it could be costly. Neither its roots nor its implications have ever been purely local. Israel's withdrawal has lessened the immediate costs but in some ways rendered the problem more unpredictable. Stripped of its cover as an Israeli-Lebanese border dispute, it has laid bare both the underlying Israeli-Syrian confrontation and Iran's involvement in the conflict.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Ethnic Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, Lebanon, and Syria
1544. Middle East Endgame I: Getting To A Comprehensive Arab-Israeli Peace Settlement
- Publication Date:
- 07-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- President Bush, announcing U.S. policy towards the Israeli-Palestinian conflict on 24 June 2002, has set the terms of the international response to the conflict for the immediately foreseeable period. Before peace can be negotiated the violence has to stop. If the Palestinians are to have their own state – and the clear message is that they should – it must be one based on the principles of democracy, transparency and the rule of law. For that to happen the current leadership needs to go. The logic is sequential: political progress is conditional on a new security environment, institutional reform and, in effect, on regime change.
- Topic:
- Security, Human Rights, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arabia
1545. Global Economic Prospects
- Author:
- Michael Mussa
- Publication Date:
- 09-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- The global economic recovery is continuing but at a somewhat slower pace than was anticipated six months ago. Specifically, using the country weights from the IMF's World Economic Outlook, the forecast for real GDP growth in the world economy during 2002 (i.e., on a fourth-quarter-to-fourth-quarter basis) is cut by about half a percentage point to 3 percent—a pace that is slightly below my estimate of the potential growth rate for world GDP. This downward revision reflects primarily slower growth than earlier expected during the first half of 2002 in most industrial countries and the expectation that growth will remain somewhat more sluggish than earlier expected at least through year-end. For 2003, the forecast for global economic growth is also cut by about half a percentage point—to 4 percent—reflecting both general factors suggesting slightly weaker performance in many industrial and developing countries and the particular economic risks arising from possible military action against Iraq and from potential credit events affecting key developing countries. Despite these downward revisions, however, there is little doubt that the world economy will see significant improvement this year from the 1 percent growth recorded in 2001, and it is still reasonable to expect further improvement to a growth rate modestly above global potential during 2003.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Europe, Israel, Asia, South America, Latin America, and North America
1546. The Looming Japanese Crisis
- Author:
- Adam S. Posen
- Publication Date:
- 05-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- After more than a decade of economic stagnation and minimal structural change, Japan stands on the brink of outright financial crisis—the only debate is whether the Japanese government can dodge its imminent economic threats for another six months at most, or ride the wave of global expansion to throw still more money at these problems with decreasing effectiveness until the public debt becomes unsustainable (which should be no later than 2005). Either way, volatility in Japanese asset markets will be extremely high for the next 36 months, with significant declines on average in asset prices and the yen.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Japan, Israel, and East Asia
1547. The Future of North Korea
- Author:
- Marcus Noland
- Publication Date:
- 05-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- The Korean peninsula has entered a period of considerable change and uncertainty. This paper attempts to sketch out how internal and external forces may shape outcomes in North Korea over the next several years. The range of plausible outcomes is huge, and the paper identifies four possible end states: successful reform and engagement, “muddling through,” elite conflict that could affect the nature of the state, if not the regime, and finally, mass mobilization that could threaten the regime itself. This analysis proceeds under a number of assumptions.
- Topic:
- Development, Government, and Industrial Policy
- Political Geography:
- Israel, East Asia, and North Korea
1548. Passive Savers and Fiscal Policy Effectiveness in Japan
- Author:
- Adam S. Posen and Kenneth N. Kuttner
- Publication Date:
- 04-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- The efficacy of fiscal policy in Japan in the last decade has been a subject of considerable dispute, and the coincidence of mounting deficits and continued stagnation has led some to conclude that fiscal policy was ineffective. This paper finds ample support for the opposite conclusion: exogenous fiscal policy shocks (as derived from a structural vector-autoregression model) had pronounced real effects in Japan. Expansionary fiscal policy was expansionary, and contractionary policy contractionary, consistent with the implications of conventional macroeconomic theory. A historical decomposition shows that Japan's burgeoning public debt stems almost entirely from the recession-caused slowdown in revenue growth, and that fiscal policy was at times procyclical rather than consistently expansionary. Direct examination of the long-run relationship between private saving, taxes, and spending confirms that any Ricardian effects of future public liabilities on saving were insufficient to offset the direct first-order effects of taxes and public expenditures. The passivity of Japanese savers therefore seems to have contributed to the efficacy of fiscal policy; otherwise, some combination of increased saving, capital outflow, and higher interest rates would have diminished its impact.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Japan, Israel, and East Asia
1549. Special Policy Forum Report: Prospects for Palestinian Economic Reform
- Author:
- Maher Al-Masri
- Publication Date:
- 08-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The Palestinian economy has reached a situation like none it has ever experienced before. For several years leading up to 1999, average annual growth within the PA was estimated at 6.5 percent. Unemployment shrank to around 11.5 percent, poverty figures were on the decline, and, for the first time, the Palestinian economy was absorbing more Palestinian laborers than Israel. The economy might have been in an even better situation had trade and border conditions not been under strict Israeli control. Under such control, transported goods often had to be unloaded, checked, and reloaded, on top of several other impediments to the free flow of goods. Despite these impediments, however, the economy was progressing at a significant pace.
- Topic:
- Security, Religion, and Reform
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arabia
1550. Missing a Target: Missile Testing and U.S. Middle East Policy
- Author:
- Simon Henderson
- Publication Date:
- 06-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Over the course of a few days at the end of May, Iran conducted a missile test; Pakistan conducted three such tests; and Israel launched a reconnaissance satellite. Each of these instances serve as proof, if any were needed, that missiles are becoming an important part of the military scene in the Middle East and Southwest Asia. The question for Washington is how the growing sophistication of Middle East/Southwest Asian missiles will affect the stability of this volatile region.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, United States, Middle East, Israel, Asia, and Arabia