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1511. Preventing Deflation: Lessons From Japan's Experience in the 1990s

Author:
Jane Haltmaier, Alan J. Ahearne, Joseph Gagnon, and Steve Kamin
Publication Date:
06-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
This paper examines Japan's experience in the first half of the 1990s to shed some light on several issues that arise as inflation declines toward zero. Is it possible to recognize when an economy is moving into a phase of sustained deflation? How quickly should monetary policy respond to sharp declines in inflation? Are there factors that inhibit the monetary transmission mechanism as interest rates approach zero? What is the role for fiscal policy in warding off a deflationary episode? We conclude that Japan's sustained deflationary slump was very much unanticipated by Japanese policymakers and observers alike, and that this was a key factor in the authorities' failure to provide sufficient stimulus to maintain growth and positive inflation. Once inflation turned negative and short-term interest rates approached the zero-lower-bound, it became much more difficult for monetary policy to reactivate the economy. We found little compelling evidence that in the lead up to deflation in the first half of the 1990s, the ability of either monetary or fiscal policy to help support the economy fell off significantly. Based on all these considerations, we draw the general lesson from Japan's experience that when inflation and interest rates have fallen close to zero, and the risk of deflation is high, stimulus–both monetary and fiscal–should go beyond the levels conventionally implied by baseline forecasts of future inflation and economic activity.
Topic:
Economics, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Israel

1512. Anticipating Strategic Surprise on the Korean Peninsula

Author:
James J. Przystup
Publication Date:
03-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
Despite the current stagnation in South-North dialogue, relations between the Koreas have been subject to sudden shifts. In the warm afterglow of the historic June 2000 South-North Summit in Pyongyang, South Korean President Kim Dae Jung's engagement policy appeared to have created a self-sustaining dynamic. Policymakers in Washington and Seoul scrambled to manage the potential diplomatic and security consequences of a rapid breakthrough in bilateral relations driven by presidential summitry.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and Security
Political Geography:
Israel, Korean Peninsula, and Pyongyang

1513. Frames, Framing, and Reframing In, and Through, The Mass Media: Reflection of Four Protracted Environmental Disputes in the Israeli Press

Author:
Ravit Richter and Ariella Vraneski
Publication Date:
05-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Conflict Analysis and Resolution at George Mason University
Abstract:
The mass media is part and parcel of modern life. In recent years environmental conflicts have increasingly become part of the public agenda, and they now gain vast media coverage. While all agree that fully functioning media sectors are essential for expanding and supporting democracy on global, national, and local levels alike, many claim that the media's interference, by definition, escalates conflicts. Recent studies confirm that many roles can be attributed to media coverage, including some that lead conflicts toward constructive resolutions. The hypothesis of our research is that through frames, the media is both influenced by and influential with regard to the conflict's dynamics.
Topic:
Environment and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
Middle East and Israel

1514. Security Factors and Responses in the Emerging Mediterranean Strategic Setting

Author:
Roberto Aliboni
Publication Date:
07-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
During the Cold War, threats coming from across the Mediterranean Sea to Europe and the Western world in general were strictly related to the East-West confrontation. National security was not endangered by possible attacks from the Mediterranean or Middle Eastern countries as such but by the East-West escalation South-South conflict could be able to give way to. In this sense, the Arab-Israeli conflict was a central threat to Western security. What was frightening was not the military power of the regional countries but their alliance with the Soviet Union and the possibility of what at that time was called horizontal escalation (as opposed to East-West direct vertical escalation).
Topic:
Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
Europe, Israel, Soviet Union, and North Africa

1515. Why are Israel's Public Relations so Poor?

Author:
Dan Diker
Publication Date:
10-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:
The Israel State Comptroller's report released on October 7, 2002, leveled unprecedented criticism on Israel's public relations efforts. The State Comptroller revealed that "since its establishment in 1948, Israel's intelligence organs have not succeeded to respond to the broad-based propaganda and incitement by the Arab world." The report also emphasized that "the lack of a central authority to direct and coordinate all government information bodies to execute a public relations policy is the main factor accounting for Israel's longstanding failures in this field."
Topic:
Security, Government, and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Arabia

1516. Understanding the Breakdown of Israeli-Palestinian Negotiations

Author:
Lt. Col. Jonathan D.H.
Publication Date:
09-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:
The second Camp David summit (July 2000) was the culmination of nearly ten years of political dialogue between Israel and the representatives of the Palestinian people, and of almost six years of interim agreements since the mutual recognition of Israel and the PLO. Yet Camp David II did not result in the conclusion of an Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement to end the protracted conflict between the Palestinian national movement and the Jewish national (Zionist) movement. The negotiations between Israel's Prime Minister Ehud Barak and Palestinian Authority (PA) Chairman Yasser Arafat (who also heads the PLO and the Fatah movement), under the auspices of U.S. President Bill Clinton, rather highlighted the wide differences between the two sides on the fundamental issues of the conflict.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arabia

1517. Legal Aspects of the Palestinian Refugee Question

Author:
Ruth Lapidoth
Publication Date:
09-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:
Until September 2000, hopes were high that soon an agreement on the final status of the West Bank and Gaza would pave the way for peaceful coexistence between Israel and the Palestinians. These hopes have unfortunately been shattered, as Palestinians violently attacked Israelis in both the administered territories and in Israel proper, provoking violent reactions by Israel. One could wonder what purpose there is in analyzing legal issues related to a peaceful settlement when violence is the order of the day. If we nevertheless examine some of the legal issues, it is because we have not yet lost hope that sooner or later the guns will be silenced and the parties will return to the negotiating table. The underlying conflict is mainly of a political nature. However, for several reasons it should also be analyzed from a legal perspective. First, some of the questions involved are overwhelmingly of a legal nature. Second, the parties base their claims on legal arguments. And, third, if and when a compromise is reached, it will be drafted in legal terms and be included in a legal text. This is also true of the question of Palestinian refugees.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arab Countries

1518. Understanding American Christian Attitudes Regarding Jerusalem

Author:
David Raab
Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:
The unity and control of Jerusalem have been among the most contentious and complex issues in Israel-Arab relations. Until recently, Israel's stance that Jerusalem would remain under its sole sovereignty as its eternal, undivided, and sole capital was not open to compromise. That position enjoyed near-unanimity among Israelis, the international Jewish community, and Congress.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
America, Middle East, Israel, and Arab Countries

1519. Who Killed Muhammad Al-Dura? Blook Libel — Model 2000

Author:
Amnon Lord
Publication Date:
07-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:
The story of the death of the child Muhammad Al-Dura — who, according to reports from world and local media, was shot and killed by IDF soldiers at Netzarim junction — became the symbol of the intifada: the Palestinian martyr whose blood must be avenged by the Muslim and enlightened world. His death turned into a blood libel accompanying the terror and violence, and it became the altar upon which the good name of the people and the State of Israel was sacrificed during the last two years. The world was flooded with pictures of the dead child. As a result of, among other things, world incitement originating with the mantra: "Israel murders Palestinian children," the UN conference in Durban turned into a frightening anti-Semitic crusade.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arab Countries

1520. Israeli Arabs: Expectations and Realities

Author:
Gerald B. Bubis
Publication Date:
05-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:
The riots by Israeli Arabs in October 2000, which took place in conjunction with the outbreak of a renewed wave of Palestinian violence against Israeli Jews, resulted in the deaths of 12 Israeli Arabs (and one from the West Bank) in confrontations with the police. The widespread rioting shocked the Israeli Jewish community and the Arabs even more.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arab Countries