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1371. Practices and their Failures: Arab-Israeli Relations and the Barcelona Process

Author:
Joel Peters
Publication Date:
04-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute of European Studies
Abstract:
Joel Peters focuses on the failed peace-making practices of the Middle East multilateral track process launched at Madrid in 1991. He thus uses the dynamics within Arab-Israeli relations to inform an assessment of the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership. Peters shows that conflicts of interests and rivalries among the participating parties emerged as soon as the multilateral peace talks moved from the discussion of ideas to the stage where decisions on the actual implementation of cooperation projects had to be reached. Thus, the demise of the multilateral talks and the subsequent slowdown in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process were underway before the launching of the EMP. The failure of developing peace-making practices within the multilateral Arab-Israeli peace talks inevitably spilled over to the EMP from the outset.
Topic:
International Relations and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, and Barcelona

1372. Identity Crisis: Israel and Its Arab Citizens

Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
For much of its history, Israel has focused on the neighbouring Arab states and Palestinians living in the occupied territories. Too often overlooked has been the status of those Israeli citizens who are Arab. They have attracted national attention only at times of heightened crisis, and even then in a highly reactive fashion. Unless systemic inequities facing Arab Israelis are addressed and an inclusive process is launched to define the state's long-term attitude towards this segment of its citizenry, prospects for internal strife and instability will remain high.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, Politics, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Israel and Arabia

1373. Taiwan Strait IV: How an Ultimate Political Settlement Might Look

Publication Date:
02-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Each side's most preferred solution for resolving the continuing Taiwan Strait issue – in the case of Taipei, widely recognised de jure independence; and in the case of Beijing, reunification of China on the same 'one country, two systems' basis as Hong Kong – are both non-starters. Neither society is likely to accommodate the other or change to the degree necessary to make either option realistically achievable, even ten or fifteen years down the road. If the risk of conflict across the Taiwan Strait – too serious to be accepted with equanimity, as the tensions of the last few months have shown – is to be reduced, then there has to be new thinking about what an ultimate political settlement might look like, and how to get there.
Topic:
Government, Politics, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
China, Israel, Taiwan, Beijing, East Asia, and Hong Kong

1374. Syria Under Bashar (I): Foreign Policy Challenges

Publication Date:
02-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Since the end of the Iraq war, Washington and Damascus have been locked in a dialogue of the deaf. U.S. policy has been reduced to a series of demands and threats. Syrian policy, with President Bashar still struggling to formulate and implement a coherent strategy, has been mainly wait-and-see – offering a few concessions and hoping to weather the storm while refusing to relinquish what it sees as trump cards (support for Hizbollah and radical Palestinian groups) so long as the conflict with Israel continues. Despite the current deadlock, however, the current regional situation presents an opportunity for an intensive, U.S.-led diplomatic effort to revive the Israeli-Syrian peace process and thereby achieve significant changes in Syrian policy.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Politics, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Washington, Israel, Arabia, and Syria

1375. Palestinian Refugees and the Politics of Peacemaking

Publication Date:
02-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
When Israeli-Palestinian permanent status negotiations resume, a key stumbling block is likely to be the Palestinian refugee question. The plight of the refugees and the demand that their right of return be recognised has been central to the Palestinian struggle since the 1948 Arab-Israeli War. Palestinians warn that a dissatisfied, angry refugee community whose core demands remain unmet could undermine any peace agreement. For their part, Israelis reject any significant return of refugees, which would spell the end of the Jewish state. They suggest that the issue has been kept artificially alive by the Palestinian leadership and Arab states; improvements in the desultory living conditions of camp refugees coupled with substantial resettlement plans in host or third countries could, they argue, dilute the intensity of the demand for return.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, Migration, and Politics
Political Geography:
Israel, Palestine, and Arabia

1376. Dealing With Hamas

Publication Date:
01-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The escalating cycle of Israeli-Palestinian military confrontation since September 2000, the breakdown in mutual trust and continued suicide bombings by the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) – the most recent on 14 January 2004 – have returned the problem of how to deal with Hamas to the centre of the Israeli-Palestinian political and diplomatic equation.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, Politics, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Israel, Palestine, and Arabia

1377. Unsheathing the Samurai Sword: Japan's Changing Security Policy

Author:
Alan Dupont
Publication Date:
11-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
This Lowy Institute Paper sheds analytical light on Japan's changing security policy and seeks answers to several important questions that are of major consequence for Australia and the wider region. What are Japan's strategic aspirations and what does Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi really mean when he talks about Japan becoming a 'normal country'? How signifi cant are the mooted revisions to the peace constitution and how different will the Japanese Self Defense Force (SDF) be in capability and structure a decade hence? As domestic anxieties increase will Japan move closer to the US or seek greater autonomy within the framework of the US alliance? Is it conceivable that the alliance itself could fracture or dissolve entirely? Will cooperation with the US on missile defence weaken the prohibition on collective self defence and under what circumstances might Japan acquire nuclear weapons?
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
Japan, Israel, Asia, and Australia

1378. Transpacific trade imbalances: causes and cures

Author:
Warwick McKibbin, Park Yung Chul, and Jong-Wha Lee
Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
This paper explores the causes of the transpacific trade imbalances using an empirical global model. It also evaluates the impact of various policies to reduce these imbalances. We find the fundamental cause of trade imbalances since 1997 is changes in saving-investment gaps, attributed to the surge of the U.S fiscal deficits and the decline of East Asia's private investment after the 1997 financial crisis. Our simulation results show that a revaluation of East Asia's exchange rates by 10 percent (effectively a shift in monetary policy) cannot resolve the imbalances. We find East Asia's concerted efforts to stimulate aggregate demand can have significant impacts on trade balances globally, but the impact on the US trade balance is not large. US fiscal contraction is estimated to have large impacts on the US trade position overall and on the bilateral trade balances with East Asian economies. These results suggest that in order to improve the transpacific imbalance, macroeconomic adjustment will need to be made on both sides of the Pacific. lowy institute for international policy.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Israel and East Asia

1379. Election Watch: Japan — Japan's party system: shifting the political axis, releasing economic reform

Author:
Malcolm Cook
Publication Date:
02-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Changes in Japan's party system offer new hope for Japan's long-delayed economic reform as the axis of voting power accelerated its shift to the urban areas. The upcoming Upper House1 elections will provide another opportunity to see how far these changes have come and how permanent they are. The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has dominated post-war Japanese politics due to the party's overwhelming support in Japan's declining rural areas. The LDP's iron grip on the rural vote has created and been maintained by a nexus of interests between LDP politicians, favoured construction companies and rural voters. This rural public works "glue" has been one of the main reasons the Japanese government has been unable to address its drastically declining fiscal position. The political power of Japan's small farming sector also explains why Japan's bilateral and multilateral free trade diplomacy has not progressed. The November 9 Lower House election results and the rise of a real alternative to the LDP promise to help Prime Minister Koizumi's three-year fight to "modernise" the LDP and make it more appealing to urban and younger voters. November 9's results also suggest that if Koizumi loses this intra-LDP battle, then in the next Lower House elections the LDP will lose. So whether Koizumi is successful or not, economic reform chances in Japan have been boosted. Australia's largest trading partner is better placed for free trade talks bilaterally and globally and to address its worrying fiscal situation, the largest threat looming over Japan's future prosperity.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:
Japan, Israel, East Asia, and Australia

1380. What Went Right in Japan

Author:
Adam S. Posen
Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Japan's recovery is strong. Real GDP growth will exceed 4 percent this year and likely be 3 percent or higher in 2005 and perhaps even 2006. The Japanese economy has been growing solidly for the last five quarters (average real 3.2 percent annualized rate), and the pace is sustainable, given Japan's underlying potential growth rate (which has risen to 2 to 2.5 percent per year) and the combination of catch-up growth closing the current output gap and some reforms that will raise the growth rate for quarters to come (though not permanently). Indicators of domestic demand beyond capital investment are increasingly positive, including housing starts bottoming out, inventories drawing down, and diminished deflation. Moreover, on the external side, while China was the main source of export growth in 2003, the composition of exports has become more balanced this year and is widening beyond that seen in other recoveries. Just as in the United States and other developed economies, a sharp slowdown in Chinese growth and a sustained further increase in energy prices represent the primary risks to the outlook.
Topic:
Development and Economics
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, China, Israel, East Asia, and Asia