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1302. The Jerusalem Powder Keg
- Publication Date:
- 08-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- While the world focuses on Gaza, the future of Israeli-Palestinian relations in fact may be playing itself out away from the spotlight, in Jerusalem. With recent steps, Israel is attempting to solidify its hold over a wide area in and around the city, creating a far broader Jerusalem. If the international community and specifically the U.S. are serious about preserving and promoting a viable two-state solution, they need to speak far more clearly and insistently to halt actions that directly and immediately jeopardise that goal. And if that solution is ever to be reached, they will need to be clear that changes that have occurred since Israelis and Palestinians last sat down to negotiate in 2000-2001 will have to be reversed.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution and International Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Jerusalem, and Gaza
1303. Disengagement and Its Discontents: What Will the Israeli Settlers Do?
- Publication Date:
- 07-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Scheduled for 15 August 2005, Israel's disengagement from Gaza and parts of the northern West Bank has already begun. How Israel for the first time evacuates settlements in the Palestinian Occupied Territories will have profound implications for Israeli-Palestinian relations, but also for Israeli society. Regardless of one's assessment of the settlers and their enterprise -- regarded internationally as illegal, by many Israelis as irresponsible and by others as the embodiment of the Zionist project -- it is bound to be a traumatic event for Israel. If it should be mishandled, accompanied by violent settler resistance or Palestinian attacks, the prospects for subsequent peace would be much bleaker. The international community's interest is to press for complete disengagement and then a credible follow-on political process.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
1304. Japan and North Korea: Bones of Contention
- Publication Date:
- 06-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Relations between Japan and North Korea continue to deteriorate due to concerns over Pyongyang's nuclear weapons program and past abductions of Japanese citizens. Nearly a decade and a half of efforts at normalising relations between the countries have faltered due to Pyongyang's unwillingness to give up that program or come clean over the abductions. For Japan, normalisation would help preserve regional stability and represent one more step toward closure on its wartime history; for North Korea, it would potentially produce the single greatest economic infusion for reviving its moribund economy. Indeed, the prospect of normalisation with Japan is one of the leading incentives that can be offered to North Korea in a deal to end the North's nuclear programs.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Nuclear Weapons, and Peace Studies
- Political Geography:
- Japan, Israel, and North Korea
1305. Building a democratic Palestine: an Australian contribution to legal and institutional development in the Palestinian territories
- Author:
- Anthony Bubalo
- Publication Date:
- 05-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- The current fragile ceasefire between Palestinian militants and Israel has raised hopes of an end to four years of violence. To sustain that ceasefire both Israel and the Palestinian Authority must meet their respective commitments under the "Road Map for Middle bast Peace". For the PA this means preventing terrorist attacks against Israel and undertaking political, legal and security reforms. These reforms are also critical to meeting the Palestinian public's own demands for an end to lawlessness and corruption. Given Australia's expertise in legal and institutional development, the Australian government's commitment to promoting democracy and peace in the Middle bast and its sound relationship with both the PA and the government of Israel, Australia should lend what support it can to the Palestinian effort to establish strong foundations for a stable, prosperous and democratic Palestinian state.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Development
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Australia
1306. A Currency Basket for East Asia, Not Just China
- Author:
- John Williamson
- Publication Date:
- 08-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- China recently announced that it is adopting a basket of currencies as the peg for its exchange rate instead of the US dollar. This announcement raises questions of how such a system works, whether other East Asian countries would be advised to follow China in adopting a basket numeraire, and whether it would be advantageous to these countries if they were all to adopt the same basket. This brief answers these questions.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Cooperation, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States, Israel, East Asia, and Asia
1307. Explaining Middle Eastern Authoritarianism
- Author:
- Marcus Noland
- Publication Date:
- 06-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Arab political regimes are both unusually undemocratic and unusually stable. A series of nested statistical models are reported to parse competing explanations. The democratic deficit is comprehensible in terms of lack of modernization, British colonial history, neighborhood effects, reliance on taxes for government finance, and the Arab population share. Interpretation of the last variable is problematic: It could point to some antidemocratic aspect of Arab culture (though this appears not to be supported by survey evidence), or it could be a proxy for some unobservable such as investment in institutions of internal repression that may not be culturally determined and instead reflect elite preferences. Hypotheses that did not receive robust support include the presence of oil rents, the status of women, conflict with Israel or other neighbors, or Islam. The odds on liberalizing transitions occurring are low but rising. In this respect the distinction between the interpretation of the Arab ethnic share as an intrinsic cultural marker and as a proxy for some unobservable is important-if the former is correct, then one would expect the likelihood of regime change to rise only gradually over time, whereas if it is the latter, the probabilities may exhibit much greater temporal variability.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom, Middle East, Israel, and Arabia
1308. Global Economic Prospects: Slower But Still Solid Growth in 2005; Worries About Growth and Inflation for 2006
- Author:
- Michael Mussa
- Publication Date:
- 04-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- After surging to the highest growth rate in a generation, world real GDP is set to slow from a rate of just over 5 percent for 2004 to about 4 percent for 2005 and a tad slower for 2006. The economic slowdowns in several important economies in the second half of last year, including much of continental Europe and Japan, already make it clear that year-over-year growth will slow for 2005. But the continued strong growth of domestic demand in other countries, most notably the United States and China, virtually assures that global growth this year will not fall below potential.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, China, Europe, Israel, and East Asia
1309. Japan Moves toward Sustainable Recovery
- Author:
- John H. Makin
- Publication Date:
- 10-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
- Abstract:
- Japan's stock market, one of the world's strongest this year, is up about 20 percent since spring. It is doing remarkably well for a country whose nominal GDP is still below its 1997 level. By contrast, the U.S. stock market has been drifting lower all year. The S 500 Index is down about 4 percent in the last five months, even more when the highflying energy sector is excluded. This is the case despite U.S. nominal GDP having grown by a cumulative 46 percent since 1997. Clearly, stock markets are looking ahead and seeing a brighter future for Japan than for the United States.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, Israel, and East Asia
1310. Lessons from the Fight against Terrorism
- Author:
- Dennis Ross, Moshe Yaalon, and Avi Dichter
- Publication Date:
- 12-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On December 15, 2005, Lt. Gen. (ret.) Moshe Yaalon, Avi Dichter, and Ambassador Dennis Ross addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. General Yaalon, a distinguished military fellow at the Institute, is the former Israel Defense Forces (IDF) chief of staff. Mr. Dichter, a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution's Saban Center for Middle East Policy, is the former head of the Israeli Security Agency (Shin Bet). Ambassador Ross, the Institute's counselor and Ziegler distinguished fellow, is a former U.S. Middle East peace envoy and author of The Missing Peace: The Inside Story of the Fight for Middle East Peace (2004). The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks.
- Topic:
- Security, Development, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Israel