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971. Iraq on the Eve of Elections

Author:
Marisa Cochrane Sullivan
Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for the Study of War
Abstract:
This backgrounder provides an update on the political landscape in Iraq on the eve of parliamentary elections. The paper begins with a brief overview of the electoral process. The second part of the backgrounder documents the Shi'a, Sunni, and Kurdish political landscapes. This paper concludes with some considerations on the post-election period of government formation.
Topic:
Islam, Armed Struggle, Sectarianism, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

972. Iraqi Elections Update

Author:
James Danly
Publication Date:
02-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for the Study of War
Abstract:
This backgrounder is an update to the ISW publication dated January 14, 2010 and entitled "Sunni Politicians Barred from Candidacy." The political landscape in Iraq has changed dramatically. Multiple government entities and politicians have weighed-in on the issue of the candidate ban, various politicians have claimed un due foreign involvement by different governments and, as the elections draw near, Iraq's already tense politics have become even more divisive. The candidates' ban has sparked widespread claims of legal and constitutional illegitimacy, threats of election boycotts and a nationwide rise in vehement anti-Ba'athism. This political environment threatens the legitimacy of Iraq's second national elections since the fall of the Ba'athist regime in 2003. The following paper briefly details and analyzes the events that have unfolded since the publication of the original.
Topic:
Democratization, Armed Struggle, Sectarianism, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

973. The Effect of Civilian Casualties in Afghanistan and Iraq

Author:
Radha Iyengar, Luke N. Condra, Joseph Felter, and Jacob N. Shapiro
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Empirical Studies of Conflict Project (ESOC)
Abstract:
A central question in intrastate conflicts is how insurgents are able to mobilize supporters to participate in violent and risky activities. A common explanation is that violence committed by counterinsurgent forces mobilizes certain segments of the population through a range of mechanisms. We study the effects of civilian casualties in Iraq and Afghanistan to quantify the effect of such casualties on subsequent insurgent violence. By comparing uniquely detailed micro-data along temporal, spatial, and gender dimensions we can distinguish short-run 'information' and 'capacity' effects from the longer run 'propaganda' and 'revenge' effects. In Afghanistan we find strong evidence that local exposure to civilian casualties caused by international forces leads to increased insurgent violence over the long-run, what we term the 'revenge' effect. Matching districts with similar past trends in violence shows that counterinsurgent-generated civilian casualties from a typical incident are responsible for 1 additional violent incident in an average sized district in the following 6 weeks and lead to increased violence over the next 6 months. There is no evidence that out-of-area events—errant air strikes for example—lead to increased violence, nor is there evidence of short run effects, thus ruling out the propaganda, information, and capacity mechanisms. Critically, we find no evidence of a similar reaction to civilian casualties in Iraq, suggesting the constraints on insurgent production of violence may be quite conflict-specific. Our results imply that minimizing harm to civilians may indeed help counterinsurgent forces in Afghanistan to reduce insurgent recruitment.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, War, Conflict, Violence, War on Terror, Civilians, and Casualties
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, Iraq, and Middle East

974. The Middle East Policy of the Republic of Turkey

Author:
Şener Aktürk
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
BILGESAM (Wise Men Center for Strategic Studies)
Abstract:
Recently, it seems that the Middle East has become the main focus of Turkey’s contemporary foreign policy. Without any doubt, one of the reasons for this focus is that the Justice and Development Party (AKP), within the context of their main foreign policy directions, is determined to enlarge their role in the region since the day they came to power. However, it has to be said that various conditions are also forcing the government towards this direction. For example, directly after the electoral victory in 2002, the AKP was confronted with the US intervention in Iraq in 2003. Acting with the knowledge that this intervention would cause instability and chaos in the region, and to avoid a war, Turkey took the initiative to hold meetings with countries bordering Iraq. When it was evident that the war could not be prevented, the government agreed upon the opening of its’ southern borderfront with Iraq to the US, which gave them access to Northern Iraq through Turkey. Yet, the Turkish parliament disapproved this gesture by AKP. After American military operations ended, the Turkish government attempted, in a somewhat controversial manner, to send a military force that would be part of the coalition forces to Iraq. This attempt was blocked by the Iraqis and especially by the Northern-Iraqi Kurds. Eventually, when the Kurds became the closest allies of the Americans in Iraq, the Turkish-American relations were occasionally quite tense. Before 2003, Turkey was able to fly into Northern Iraq to fight against the PKK. However, it found itself unable to enter Iraq for a long time soon after the Americans arrived to the country. Even today, for Turkey, the main problem in the Middle East region remains the question of Iraq’s future. The developments in Iraq and its consequences are undoubtedly the main triggers for Turkey to play a more active role in the Middle East diplomacy. Within this scope, it seems that Turkish diplomacy has successfully expanded its ‘macro diplomacy’ with ‘micro diplomacy’ by establishing contacts with several different sectarian and political groups in Iraq. Later on, similar activities have taken place in Lebanon, while the relations with the Palestinians have also been strengthened. Although it seems slightly assertive, the notion of ‘zero problems with neighboring countries’ seems to be a creative concept as well. A detailed analysis of AKP’s Middle East policy will be further examined within the upcoming subparagraphs of this research report. Yet, before doing so, it seems useful to have a look at the continuous and divergent elements of the Middle East policies that have been adopted by the various governments since the foundation of the Turkish Republic. This approach will, on some level, shed light on what extent the discourse of ‘Turkey was pursuing a relatively passive Middle East policy’ before AKP administration reflects the reality.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Geopolitics, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Iraq, Turkey, and Middle East

975. The USA-Turkey Relationship After the 2003 Iraq Crisis

Author:
Şûle Anlar Güneş
Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
BILGESAM (Wise Men Center for Strategic Studies)
Abstract:
Turkey and the USA have been strategic allies since declaration of Truman Doctrine in 1947. This strategic partnership got worse due to the USA‘s politics towards Middle East after 9-11 tragedy and Turkey’s new changing domestic political situation through AKP in 2002. Specifically, 2003 Iraq crisis was milestone to decline the relationship between Turkey and the USA. In spite of deterioration of relationship, Turkey and the USA had to overcome this problem due to security, foreign, and economic concerns of both countries, and the process have advanced as expected. In this article, the US-Turkey relationship will be examined in the contexts of recent Iraq crisis, Turkey’s new approach to foreign policy, NATO, war on terrorism, European Union, and economic concerns in order to comprehend the new era of Turkey-US strategic partnership.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, NATO, Economics, European Union, Crisis Management, and War on Terror
Political Geography:
Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

976. The Economic Condition of Displaced Iraqis Living in Jordan: A Study of Vocational Training

Author:
Farah Thalji
Publication Date:
08-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic Studies (CSS)
Abstract:
The Iraqi War has garnered international attention as a traumatic conflict in many respects. Rising death tolls, expensive military operations, internal fragmentation and civilian suffering have all become hallmarks of the ongoing conflict. This often overshadows the distress of Iraqis scattered to neighboring countries by the war. This report focuses the lens on displaced Iraqis who have fled to the neighboring Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan to seek refuge. Refugees are used as the instrument for measuring the impact of the conflict and its residuals on others in the region. The subsequent goal is to demonstrate the rippling effect of conflict in such a manner that goes beyond the surface to the longer-term effects that are often overlooked by the media in favor of shocking short-term events. One problem Iraqis face in Jordan is economic survival. There is a pervasive attitude that Jordan only harbors wealthy Iraqis. While this stereotype may apply to some Iraqis, it is certainly not a reality for many –particularly considering that seven years have passed since the start of the war and personal funds have been depleting. One of the troubles that Iraqis in Jordan now face is the inability to participate in the labor force due to legal restrictions. With an estimated population of somewhere between 450,000 to 700,000 Iraqis amongst Jordan’s population of 6 million, this poses a serious problem. An assessment of the situation attempts to understand the Iraqi effort for survival by focusing on vocational training and support for displaced Iraqis. The goal of such an effort is to capture the Iraqi attempt to transition into the labor market in Jordan. It also reflects that economic involvement in the Jordanian economy is becoming increasingly necessary as security continues to remain an issue in Iraq and the fear of return persists. Discussing the political and legal as well as the social status of Iraqis in Jordan forms a necessary foundation for the study of their economic situation and the subsequent merit of vocational training programs.2
Topic:
Economics, Refugees, Displacement, and Vocational Training
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and Jordan

977. Iraq, its Neighbors, and the Obama Administration: Syrian and Saudi Perspectives

Publication Date:
02-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The top concern for both Riyadh and Damascus remains blowback from Iraq: the ascendance of ethnic and sectarian identity and the spread of Islamist militancy. The need to contain this threat is the dominant force that shapes their relations with Iraq. Both Syria and Saudi Arabia have a vital interest in ensuring that Iraq's emerging political order is inclusive of Sunni Arab Iraqis, who have not yet been fully incorporated into Iraqi institutions. Syria and Saudi Arabia do not look at Iraq in isolation, nor do they assign it top priority among their foreign policy concerns. For them, Iraq is merely one element in a comprehensive view encompassing other regional players (including the U.S. and Iran) and other regional crises, particularly the Arab-Israeli conflict. Lingering resentment and bitterness toward Washington is now mixed with intense curiosity and modest optimism about President Barack Obama. Saudis still bristle when recalling how the Bush Administration sidelined Riyadh on Iraqi matters; as do Syrians, who believe the previous administration was intent on isolating and undermining Damascus. Iraq remains very much isolated in its neighborhood. Recent Progress on regional cooperation notwithstanding, these two neighbors are still focused more on containment than engagement.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Ethnic Conflict, and War
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Middle East, Arabia, and Syria

978. Dr. Ali Al-Dabbagh's Iraq-based Formula for Regional Cooperation

Author:
Elizabeth Detwiler
Publication Date:
01-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
USIP recently hosted Dr. Ali Al-Dabbagh, official spokesman for the Iraqi government, He unveiled a far-reaching regional initiative to increase economic and strategic cooperation in the Middle East. The initiative represents a new level of consciousness and independence in Iraqi foreign policy.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

979. Dysfunction and Decline: Lessons Learned From Inside al-Qa'ida in Iraq

Author:
Brian Fishman
Publication Date:
03-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
Al-Qa`ida in Iraq (AQI) is a shadow of its former self, primarily because broad sectors of Iraq's Sunni population rejected it after more than three years of active and tacit cooperation. Anger over AQI's brutal radicalism infused the Sunni backlash against jihadists, but AQI also made two fundamental strategic overreaches that exacerbated its alienation from Sunnis in Iraq. First, it incited a sectarian backlash from Iraqi Shi'a without the means to defend Iraq's Sunnis from the onslaught it provoked. Second, AQI created a formal political entity, the Islamic State of Iraq (ISI), to dominate Iraq after a U.S. withdrawal without adequate support from Iraq's Sunni population.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Terrorism, and War
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia

980. Dirty Windows and Burning Houses: Setting the Record Straight on Irregular Warfare

Author:
John A. Nagl and Brian M Burton
Publication Date:
04-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Washington Quarterly
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
After a slow start, the U.S. military has made remarkable strides in adapting to irregular warfare in Afghanistan and Iraq, and is beginning to institutionalize those adaptations. Recent Department of Defense (DOD) directives and field manuals have elevated stability operations and counterinsurgency to the same level of importance as conventional military offensive and defensive operations. These changes are the outcome of deep reflection about the nature of current and likely future threats to U.S. national security and the military's role in addressing them. They represent important steps toward transforming a sclerotic organizational culture that long encouraged a ''we don't do windows'' posture on so-called ''military operations other than war,'' even as the nation's leaders called upon the armed forces to perform those types of missions with increasing frequency.
Topic:
National Security and War
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, and Iraq