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801. "Partitioning to Peace: Sovereignty, Demography, and Ethnic Civil Wars"

Author:
Carter Johnson
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Security
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Partitioning states along ethnic lines is a debatable solution to solving ethnic civil wars. Advocates argue that partition offers the best chance for lasting peace, while opponents claim that it takes a huge toll on the populations involved and that its effectiveness has yet to be proven. The evidence suggests that only partitions that completely separate the warring groups succeed in creating peaceful states. Policymakers should thus consider partition as an option only where populations are already separated or where population transfers can be accomplished safely. Partitioning Kosovo into distinct ethnic districts could lead to lasting peace, whereas partitioning Iraq would most likely increase human suffering and violence.
Political Geography:
Iraq

802. Sectarian Identities or Geopolitics? The Regional Shia-Sunni Divide in the Middle East

Author:
Mari Luomi
Publication Date:
01-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The purpose of this study is to enhance understanding of the new geopolitical situation currently unfolding in Middle Eastern politics that has emerged since the onset of the United States-led wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. The paper focuses on the notions of the Sunni-Shia divide and the Rise of the Shia.
Topic:
Ethnic Conflict and Politics
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Asia

803. Learning the Right Lessons from Iraq

Author:
Benjamin H. Friedman, Harvey Sapolsky, and Christopher Preble
Publication Date:
02-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Foreign policy experts and policy analysts are misreading the lessons of Iraq. The emerging conventional wisdom holds that success could have been achieved in Iraq with more troops, more cooperation among U.S. government agencies, and better counterinsurgency doctrine. To analysts who share these views, Iraq is not an example of what not to do but of how not to do it. Their policy proposals aim to reform the national security bureaucracy so that we will get it right the next time.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and War
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, and Middle East

804. Turkey and Northern Iraq on the Course of Raprochement

Author:
Aylin S. Gorener
Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:
Perhaps the most consequential and drastic decision in Turkish foreign policy in recent months was to engage in direct negotiations with Kurdish Regional Government in northern Iraq. This is significant because, since the onset of Iraq War in 2003, Turkey has sought to ignore or marginalize Iraqi Kurds, and has refrained from all acts that could be viewed as concessions or de facto recognition. Although the Iraqi Kurdish leadership has received red-carpet ceremony in Ankara in the1990s, Turkish foreign policy toward northern Iraq, since the war, has been stymied by anxiety and emotional rhetoric. Indeed, the fear of Iraq's disintegration and the rise of an independent Kurdish enclave in the north, inspiring or even assisting separatist sentiments in Turkey, have appeared to cloud the possibility of rational evaluation of the pros and cons of policy alternatives. As a result, the policy of projecting illegitimacy to the Kurdish Regional Government has cost Turkey a significant loss of clout not only in northern Iraq but also in the wider Iraqi political affairs, as Kurds have come to occupy significant positions in the central government as well.
Topic:
Government, International Political Economy, and War
Political Geography:
Iraq, Turkey, and Middle East

805. The "Real" al Qaeda

Author:
Frederick W. Kagan
Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
In a recent article, AEI resident scholar Frederick W. Kagan examined one of the recurring themes in the recent congressional hearings on the situation in Iraq. General David Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan Crocker were repeatedly told that the size and scope of our Iraq effort were preventing the United States from prevailing in the "real fight" against al Qaeda in the Afghan-Pakistan border region. Kagan, the author of four reports on Iraq strategy, including the latest, Iraq: The Way Ahead, examines the reality of the popular claim.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Terrorism, and War
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Iraq, Middle East, and Asia

806. Not Too Far: The Cyprus Crises of 1963-74 and Lessons for Present Day Iraq

Author:
Barin Kayaoglu
Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Insight Turkey
Institution:
SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:
The Cyprus tragedy of the past and the Iraq predicament of our times bear striking similarities. Cyprus of the 1960s and 1970s is not too far from Iraq in 2008. The main thrust of this article is that Cyprus presents a useful case study for contemporary decision-makers in the United States, Turkey, and Iraq. Just like the Cyprus question, which has caused nearly irreparable damage to the relations between Turkey, Greece, and the United States, policies that are not carefully crafted by Washington, Ankara, Erbil, and Baghdad could lead to a very problematic future for the Middle East. In a nutshell, this article offers a cautionary analysis by drawing on the experiences of the Cyprus tragedy for the purpose of avoiding a similar one in Iraq.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention and War
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Turkey, and Middle East

807. Failed Responsibility: Iraqi Refugees in Syria, Jordan and Lebanon

Publication Date:
07-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
A refugee crisis was feared before the coalition invasion of Iraq in 2003, but it came later than anticipated, and on a greater scale. It started not because of the military action, but two years later, when American efforts to rebuild the country faltered, violence escalated, and civilians became the targets of insurgent groups and sectarian militias. And while exact numbers are uncertain, the scale of the problem is not in dispute: today, Iraq's refugee crisis – with some two and a half million outside the country and the same number internally displaced – ranks as the world's second in terms of numbers, preceded only by Afghanistan and ahead of Sudan. While the security situation in Iraq shows progress, the refugee crisis will endure for some time and could worsen if that progress proves fleeting.
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and Jordan

808. Avoiding Transfers to Torture

Author:
Ashley Deeks
Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
The conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq, the conflict with al-Qaeda, and escalating concerns about terrorism have meant that, in the past seven years, the United States has detained thousands of people. The government has held some of these individuals in the United States and some overseas. Many remain in U.S. custody. As U.S. policies and the nature of the current conflicts evolve, the United States finds itself seeking to return many of these people—combatants, suspected terrorists, and others—to their countries of origin. But, as it does so, it runs into a problem: in a significant number of cases, the U.S. government has concluded that it is more likely than not that the individuals will be tortured if the United States hands them back to their governments.
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, and Iraq

809. Legality and Legitimacy in International Order

Author:
Vesselin Popovski and Nicholas Turner
Publication Date:
05-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The 1999 NATO armed intervention over Kosovo was illegal under international law, but widely regarded as legitimate. The 2003 US invasion of Iraq was both illegal and illegitimate, though unilateral attempts were made to legitimize it, using the Kosovo precedent. The sanctions against Iraq, preceding the 2003 invasion, were legal, but seen by many as illegitimate. These examples are symptomatic of a wider disconnect between legality and legitimacy which affects many areas of international life. Legality is not the only criteria for determining acceptable state behaviour. Other criteria—humanitarian, ethical and political—play a significant role in modern international relations. Ignorance of international law has serious negative consequences, but so has the blind reliance on international law, detached from human aspirations and actual circumstances.
Topic:
International Law
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, and Kosovo

810. The Middle East: Evolution of a Broken Regional Order

Author:
Paul Salem
Publication Date:
07-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The Middle East is broken. The structures and power balances put in place in the late 1970s and amended after the end of the Cold War are no longer. These structures and balances included a number of key elements. Israel was at peace with Egypt and Jordan and in an informal truce with Syria—hence the Arab–Israeli conflict was no longer pursued by any major contiguous state opponents of Israel. A weakened Palestinian movement had been chased out of Lebanon in 1982 and co-opted in the Oslo Accords of 1993. Syria's role in the region was recognized and its influence in Lebanon legitimized—indeed, after 1990, it was promoted to suzerainty. Iraq was bolstered in the 1980s by the United States as a buffer and counterbalance to revolutionary Iran, and later, throughout the 1990s, it was preserved but contained. Saudi Arabia helped manage the finances of this scheme and helped maintain Arab consensus when possible. And the United States saw out the end of Soviet influence in the region, secured a military foothold in the Gulf, and gained in political influence: first as a broker of Israeli–Egyptian peace in the late 1970s, then as the architect of a pro-Iraqi containment policy against revolutionary Iran in the 1980s, as the leader of an Arab and international coalition to liberate Kuwait from an Iraqi invasion in the early 1990s, and as the patron of another major peace initiative launched in the Madrid peace conference.
Topic:
Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Middle East, Israel, and Egypt