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731. Iran in the 10th Year of the 2nd Gulf War

Author:
BILGESAM
Publication Date:
03-2013
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
BILGESAM (Wise Men Center for Strategic Studies)
Abstract:
The second Gulf War ended the Ba’ath regime in Iraq, exhausted by wars and embargoes for 23 years. Because of the war Iraq plunged into chaos and came almost to the verge of a de facto disintegration. The War has not only changed the internal balances in Iraq but also affected the Middle Eastern geopolitics profoundly. While a new political structure had been created in Iraq reflecting the primacy of the majority Shiite groups, the de facto autonomy of Kurdish groups in the north, which have developed close relations with the USA, has gradually gained a constitutional character. The PKK terrorist organization recovered during this period increased its maneuvering capability in northern Iraq and Qandil Mountain and intensified its attacks against Turkey. Following the withdrawal of USA troops at the end of 2011, instability in Iraqi politics has deteriorated and it was observed that that emerging power vacuum is being filled to a large extent by Iran. The “Iraq in the Tenth Year of the Second Gulf War” report pay attention to Iraqi actors, the emerging state structure and the political-economic situation of the country, as well as the way how the emerging power vacuum affects the region and Turkey. The report analyzes the deepening political instability and internal disputes in the post-US Iraq, Turkey’s relations with the central government and the Kurdish Administration in the north. The report also tries to explore the future of the ongoing political and economic instability in Iraq and provides the Turkish decision-makers with recommendations for Turkey’s national interests.
Topic:
Economics, Conflict, Kurds, Gulf War, and Economic Stability
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

732. Lessons for Handling Iran From the Sad Saga of Iraq

Author:
Greg Thielmann and Alexandra Schmitt
Publication Date:
03-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Arms Control Association
Abstract:
Ten years ago today, President George W. Bush said in a radio address to the nation: "It is clear that Saddam Hussein is still violating the demands of the United Nations by refusing to disarm." Eleven days later, he announced the invasion of Iraq to remove the weapons of mass destruction (WMD) allegedly possessed by Hussein's brutal regime and to prevent their use by or transfer to terrorist networks such as al Qaeda. That no such weapons existed was less a symptom of flawed intelligence than the U.S. leaders' obsession with achieving regime change in Baghdad and their consequent willingness to distort evidence on WMD toward that end. This distortion, along with failures by the press and Congress to exercise due diligence in evaluating the assertions of the executive branch, blinded the public to contravening information on Iraqi WMD that was readily available during the six weeks preceding the attack. Ironically, the most important sources of this ignored information were the very inspectors that the international community had forced Iraq to readmit the previous fall. There are lessons here for current efforts to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Weapons of Mass Destruction, History, and Iraq War
Political Geography:
Iraq, Iran, and Middle East

733. Between Humanitarian Aid and Colonialism - The Case Study of French (Non) Intervention in Iraq and Mali.

Author:
Emin Eminagić and Viktoria Potapkina
Publication Date:
01-2013
Content Type:
Case Study
Institution:
The Centre for Security Studies
Abstract:
Peacekeeping missions in today's public discourse are perceived as agents of neocolonialism, and thus seen as widely unpopular. Although one cannot simply assume that there are no reasons for international interventions in conflict areas, as a real need to protect and help the civilian population might exist, upon scrutinizing the foreign policies of some world powers one can witness elements that are none other than neocolonialist in nature. Nevertheless, it remains a sensitive topic, which depending on the prism of the viewer can be interpreted as neocolonial exploitation of resources and labor force, or, on the other hand, seen as stimulating the local economy and building of local capacities for a functioning state. This paper is designed as a comparative case study of France’s (non) involvement in two regions – Iraq in 2003 and Mali in 2013. The time frame of ten years allows for a retrospective analysis of the possible decisions influencing French politicians to make the decision to not intervene in Iraq. The case of Mali is a rather new event and thus requires immediate attention to understand the underlying reasons for military action. Such a case study presents an intriguing opportunity for comparison. In regards to the case of the intervention in Iraq, France had immediate economic interests in the country, however, it, to this day, remains the most vocal opponent of the intervention, regardless of the fact that a large number of North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) members participated in one way or another in the Operation Iraqi Freedom. In the case of Mali, France does not have any apparent economic interests in the region; however, it is the only NATO state carrying out the military operation in the country unilaterally as of writing of this paper. However it is not our intention to provide definitive answers on certain points of involvement and non-intervention, nor mark processes, but rather to provide a grassroot analysis on the the case study of Mali that would potentially best explain particular aspects of theoretical implications.
Topic:
Humanitarian Aid, Peacekeeping, Humanitarian Intervention, and Colonialism
Political Geography:
Iraq, France, and Mali

734. A Bitter Legacy: Lessons of De-Baathification in Iraq

Author:
Miranda Sissons and Abdulrazzaq Al-Saiedi
Publication Date:
03-2013
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The International Center for Transitional Justice (ICTJ)
Abstract:
Based on significant field research and interviews with the Higher National de-Baathification Commission, this report focuses on Iraq’s purge of members of Saddam Hussein’s Baath Party, which is the most well-known example of large-scale and politically based dismissals in the Middle East and North Africa. The report summarizes the structure and impact of de-Baathification from 2003 to 2011. It gives unique insight into de-Baathification’s goals, framework, impact, and problems. It includes a focused look at de-Baathification in Iraq’s Ministry of Finance from 2003 to 2006 and summarizes seven key lessons for policy makers in other countries.
Topic:
Reform, Transitional Justice, Institutions, Baath Party, and De-Baathification
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

735. Iran's Presence in Iraq: New Realities?

Author:
Mahjoob Zweiri
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic Studies (CSS)
Abstract:
This study explores the new realties related to the Iran’s presence in Iraq. It focuses on Iran’s grand strategy in Iraq, and Iran’s decision-making process concerning that presence. The study discusses different methods that Iran has used to achieve its goals in Iraq. It also discusses in-depth the four Iranian levels of intervention in Iraq, and the consequences on the region. The study includes supporting data, which help to understand the nature of Iranian intervention in Iraq.
Topic:
Geopolitics, Grand Strategy, Foreign Interference, and Decision-Making
Political Geography:
Iraq, Iran, and Middle East

736. World Grows More Peaceful - Except for the Middle East

Author:
Dana McKelvey
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
The Institute for Economics and Peace's annual Global Peace Index (GPI) reported an increase in world peace after two consecutive years of decline. The change was driven by slight reductions worldwide in terrorist acts, military expenditure as a percentage of GDP, military sophistication, and aggregate number of heavy weapons per capita. As the sixth edition of the study, the 2012 GPI ranked the peacefulness of 158 nations, marking an increase from the 2011 ranking of 153 nations. As Professor Anne-Marie Slaughter of Princeton University remarked at the GPI’s release, the study has great potential for “draw[ing] correlations” and encouraging collaboration between think tanks, universities, policymakers, and civil society in their study of global peace. The IEP will distribute the study to the World Bank, the OECD, the U.S. Congress, American University, and Club de Madrid, among other leading organizations. Professor Slaughter explained that researchers defined peacefulness not only as the absence of war or violence, but also as the absence of fear. The study addresses three major themes: the level of safety and security in society; the extent of domestic or international conflict; and the degree of militarization. The IEP researched these themes in the context of both “positive peace,” a “culture of peace” that values human rights, gender equality, democratic participation, and open communication, as well as “negative peace,” or the absence of violent conflict. In its study of “negative peace,” the GPI used twenty-three indicators, spanning topics from deaths in organized conflict, to political instability, to perceived criminality. The IEP’s Positive Peace Index (PPI), which addresses 108 countries, used twenty-one indicators categorized into eight “pillars of peace” that researchers identified as key to a peaceful society. The IEP emphasized the contrast between the PPI and other studies’ extensive focus on conflict and civil unrest. According to the IEP’s executive summary, the PPI becomes especially important during state-building, as in the recent cases of Iraq and Afghanistan. “The pillars of peace,” the summary states, “provide a foundation for thinking about how to establish the optimal environment for human wellbeing and potential to flourish.”
Topic:
Security, Gender Issues, Human Rights, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Iraq, and Middle East

737. Foreign Aid a Critical Component of Mideast Stability

Author:
Robert Brada
Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
A few weeks ago I found myself on the outskirts of a remote village in the Jordanian desert. One of my travel companions received a call on his mobile phone. It was a member of Jordan’s security services, saying we should call if we needed anything as they would have people nearby at all times. It was then I began to realize that the small projects I had come to observe had a global impact. I am not a traditional international relief worker. I grew up in a small town in Kansas, became a corporate finance lawyer, worked on the management team of a movie studio, and ran a startup healthcare services company. Perhaps this corporate background contributed to my skeptical view of the value of the U.S. spending overseas during bad economic times. During my two-week trip to Jordan and Iraq, however, I witnessed first-hand how seemingly minor development programs can help support stability and international values. Although Jordan projects an image of tourist-friendly calm, its location between Israel, Syria, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia makes it a strategically important player in any Middle East peace process – or conflict. All its borders, except those with Israel, are porous, and the country has received over 750,000 Iraqi refugees since 2003. Recently, over 140,000 refugees crossed from Syria as that country’s conflict has escalated. In the small town of Mafraq in northern Jordan, I met a Syrian woman and her three daughters who had fled their home the morning after Syrian forces killed all of the males in the home next door, including children. She has had no contact with her husband and sons since she left. The Jordanian people and government have responded compassionately, absorbing refugees into their homes and neighborhoods. A consequence of this kindness, however, is that communities are finding themselves overburdened. Jordan’s severe water shortage leaves most areas with running water only two days a week. Doubling or tripling the size of households turns water rationing from inconvenience into impossibility. The same is true for sewage, waste management, and public infrastructure as antiquated systems are pushed past their capacity. Even the free market works against the Jordanian hosts, as the swelling refugee population drives up the price of housing, food, and other commodities, while pushing down wages.
Topic:
Humanitarian Aid, Foreign Aid, Political stability, and Strategic Stability
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Jordan

738. The Resurgence of Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq

Author:
Sam Wyer
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for the Study of War
Abstract:
This report examines the political, religious, and military resurgence of Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq (AAH) in Iraq since the withdrawal of U.S. Forces, identifying the group's key actors, their present disposition and strategy, and their regional expansion. AAH is an Iranian-backed Shi'a militant group that split from Moqtada al-Sadr's Jaish al-Mahdi (JAM) in 2006. Since that time, AAH has conducted thousands of lethal explosively formed penetrator (EFP) attacks against U.S. and Iraqi forces, targeted kidnappings of Westerners, rocket and mortar attacks on the U.S. Embassy, the murder of American soldiers, and the assassination of Iraqi officials.
Topic:
Security, Islam, Terrorism, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Iran, and Middle East

739. Iran's Declining Influence in Iraq

Author:
Babak Rahimi
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Washington Quarterly
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
''Three Whom God Should Not Have Created: Persians, Jews, and Flies,'' was the provocative title of a pamphlet published in 1940 by Saddam Hussein's uncle, Khairallah Talfah. Saddam himself incorporated suchanti-Iranian sentiment into Ba'athist state ideology after his rise to power in 1979 and into the bloody 1980—1988 Iran—Iraq war. Such hostility is still visible today under the Victory Arch, popularly known as the Crossed Swords, in central Baghdad where thousands of the helmets of Iranian soldiers are held in nets, with some half buried in the ground. Before 2003, every year Saddam and his soldiers would proudly march over the helmets, as the symbol of Iraq's triumph over Persia.
Political Geography:
Iraq, Iran, and Tehran

740. "Left of Bang": The Value of Sociocultural Analysis in Today's Environment

Author:
Michael T. Flynn, James Sisco, and David C. Ellis
Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
PRISM
Institution:
Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS), National Defense University
Abstract:
Hard lessons learned during counterinsurgency operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, counterterrorist operations across continents, and the Arab Spring all contributed to a growing recognition within the Intelligence Community (IC)1 of the importance of understanding the “human terrain” of operating environments. The Department of Defense (DOD), its Service branches and combatant commands, and the broader IC responded to the demand for sociocultural analysis (SCA) by creating organizations such as the Defense Intelligence Socio-Cultural Capabilities Council, Human Terrain System, and U.S. Central Command's Human Terrain Analysis Branch, among others. For large bureaucracies, DOD and the IC reacted agilely to the requirement, but the robust SCA capabilities generated across the government over the last decade were largely operationally and tactically organized, resourced, and focused. What remains is for the IC to formulate a strategic understanding of SCA and establish a paradigm for incorporating it into the intelligence process.
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, and Iraq