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1091. Iraq: Don't Rush the Constitution

Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The next stage in Iraq's political transition, the drafting and adoption of a permanent constitution, will be critical to the country's long-term stability. Iraqis face a dilemma: rush the constitutional process and meet the current deadline of 15 August 2005 to prevent the insurgents from scoring further political points, or encourage a process that is inclusive, transparent and participatory in an effort to increase popular buy-in of the final product. While there are downsides to delay, they are far outweighed by the dangers of a hurried job that could lead to either popular rejection of or popular resignation to a text toward which they feel little sense of ownership or pride.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Government
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

1092. Unmaking Iraq: A Constitutional Process Gone Awry, Middle East Briefing

Publication Date:
09-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Instead of healing the growing divisions between Iraq's three principal communities -- Shiites, Kurds and Sunni Arabs -- a rushed constitutional process has deepened rifts and hardened feelings. Without a strong U.S.-led initiative to assuage Sunni Arab concerns, the constitution is likely to fuel rather than dampen the insurgency, encourage ethnic and sectarian violence, and hasten the country's violent break-up.
Topic:
Government, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, Arab Countries, and Kurdistan

1093. The US Economic Outlook

Author:
Martin Neil Baily and Jacob Funk Kirkegaard
Publication Date:
04-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Oil prices have risen and are expected to remain high. Slow job and wage growth result in slow income growth. Low interest rates kept housing and auto sales strong after 2000 – borrowing future growth. No new stimulus from monetary or fiscal policy. The Iraq war and the terrorism threat may be a drag on confidence. Because 9/11 did not have significant macroeconomic effects, the impact of the war and terrorism seems to be mostly on oil prices No new stimulus from monetary or fiscal policy.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States and Iraq

1094. Iraq Transition, Interim Constitution, and Human Rights: Legal Standards Governing Treatment of Iraqi Detainees by Iraqi Security Forces During U.S. Occupation

Author:
Steven C. Welsh
Publication Date:
01-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Defense Information
Abstract:
In addition to abuse, or alleged abuse, by U.S. and allied forces against detainees in Iraq, allegations have surfaced of Iraqi-on-Iraqi abuse by Iraqi government agents, such as Iraqi police, against Iraqi prisoners. Such reports are especially troubling given that a primary rationale advanced for the U.S. and allied invasion of Iraq was humanitarian intervention: to overthrow a brutal dictatorship and attempt to replace it with a government founded upon principles of democracy, rule of law, and respect for human rights. Additionally troubling is the question of whether the U.S.-led alliance “bit off more than it could chew” by taking on such a daunting task, with detainee abuse by the alliance and the Iraqis perhaps exemplifying not only moral and legal challenges but also tests to the logistical limits of selecting, training, and holding accountable large numbers of personnel in such a monumental undertaking. The same poor planning and lack of capacity resulting in shortages of armor arguably could be said to be exemplified by the chaos at Abu Ghraib and apparent problems at staffing the Iraqi police forces fully with law-abiding professionals.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Human Rights, and War
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arab Countries

1095. Fighting to Win

Author:
Frederick W. Kagan
Publication Date:
12-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
Is retreat from, withdrawal from, or defeat in Iraq inevitable? Almost all opponents of the Bush administration say it is. As Representative John Murtha (D-Pa.) put it in mid-November, when demanding the “immediate redeployment of U.S. troops” consistent with their safety, “The United States cannot accomplish anything further in Iraq militarily. It is time to bring the troops home.” This was echoed more recently by Democratic National Committee chairman Howard Dean: “The idea that we're going to win this war is an idea that, unfortunately, is just plain wrong.” Advocates of withdrawal point to continuing attacks on coalition and Iraqi targets and to the steady, somber flow of U.S. casualties, as well as the increasing fear that our army will break under the strain of prolonged occupation. Administration supporters of course share these concerns, and some seem (privately) to share the view that the war may be unwinnable. Even a few inside the administration may have their doubts. In any case, the administration clearly believes that it has to promise a significant reduction of U.S. forces in Iraq—“conditions permitting”—in 2006. Reports are circulating that preparations for troop reductions have already begun.
Topic:
International Relations and War
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, and Middle East

1096. Germany's Bad Example for Iraq

Author:
Michael S. Greve
Publication Date:
10-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
Berlin is far from Baghdad, and the Germans at least want to keep it that way. But for all the obvious differences, Germany's inconclusive election results and the impending constitutional referendum in Iraq point to some identical obstacles to effective and constitutional government. These obstacles are proportional representation and “cooperative federalism.” As it happens, well-meaning UN officials, NGOs, and U.S. advisers have been urging these constitutional arrangements upon numerous fledgling democracies, including Iraq. That may not be good advice.
Topic:
Government and United Nations
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Europe, Middle East, Baghdad, Germany, and Berlin

1097. Beware the Arafat Model in Iraq

Author:
Michael Rubin
Publication Date:
09-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
Iraqis gathered around television sets as midnight approached on August 22. They watched as constitutional-drafting committee members and political elites whispered among themselves. When the speaker of the national assembly, Hachim al-Hasani, declared, “We have received a draft of the constitution,” the assembly erupted in applause. “But,” he added, “there are some points that are still outstanding and need to be addressed in the next three days.” Late into the night, politicians and activists continued to meet in the Baghdad homes of the major powerbrokers, grappling with the roles of federalism and Islam in the new Iraq. While U.S. diplomats and Washington advisers continue to facilitate compromise among Iraq's disparate sectarian, ethnic, and political groups, the reality emerging outside Baghdad is directly challenging Iraq's aspirations to constitutionalism. The U.S. government has spent hundreds of thousands of dollars to bring outside experts to Baghdad for a period of a few days or a few weeks, but Iraqi powerbrokers dismiss their advice as naive or irrelevant. Massoud Barzani in the Kurdish north and Abdul Aziz al-Hakim and Muqtada al-Sadr in the Shiite south have rejected the experts' academic proposals, and have chosen instead a model perfected by Yasser Arafat, the late chairman of the Palestine Liberation Organization.
Topic:
International Relations and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Washington, Middle East, and Baghdad

1098. Zarqawi's 'Total War' on Iraqi Shiites Exposes a Divide among Sunni Jihadists

Author:
Emily Hunt
Publication Date:
11-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On November 2, Iraq's Defense Ministry appealed to junior officers from Saddam Hussein's disbanded army to return to service. The decision to include these soldiers is part of an ongoing strategy to minimize support for terrorism by reintegrating Sunnis into the political fabric of the new Iraq. This latest effort comes as Abu Musab al-Zarqawi's group steps up targeting of Shiite civilians in an effort to spark retaliatory attacks against Sunnis. But as Zarqawi's attacks on Shiites exact growing toll among civilians, his tactics may be causing a divide within the ranks of the resistance.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

1099. A Bedouin on a Camel? Saudi Foreign Policy and the Insurgency in Iraq

Author:
Simon Henderson
Publication Date:
10-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Iraq's interior minister, Bayan Jabr, lashed out at Saudi diplomacy while speaking to journalists in Amman on October 2. Referring to Prince Saud al-Faisal, the Saudi foreign minister, Jabr said Iraq would not be lectured by "some Bedouin riding a camel." Broadening his remarks to the Saudi ruling family, the House of Saud, the Iraqi minister said, "There are regimes that are dictatorships; they have one god, he is the king, he is god of heaven and earth, and he rules as he likes. A whole country is named after a family."
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, United Nations, and War
Political Geography:
Iraq, Washington, and Middle East

1100. Al-Qaeda's North African Franchise: The GSPC Regional Threat

Author:
Emily Hunt
Publication Date:
09-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On September 29, Algerians will vote on President Abdelaziz Bouteflika's proposed Charter for Peace and National Reconciliation, a policy that would provide amnesty for most of the one-thousand Islamic terrorists the government believes are still hiding in Algeria and neighboring countries. Between three hundred and five hundred of the terrorists still at large belong to the Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat (GSPC). This cadre of Afghanistan-trained, al-Qaeda-linked militants was behind the September 24 ambush of a police patrol east of Algiers that killed eight people. These holdouts have shown no interest in a government amnesty, despite the Algerian population's clearly waning interest in Islamist-inspired political violence.
Topic:
Security, Peace Studies, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, Iraq, and North Africa