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1081. Shocked and Awed: Defense Transformation in Iraq and Afghanistan

Author:
Thomas Donnelly
Publication Date:
04-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
One hundred days into the second term of President George W. Bush, a clear national security agenda and policy team have emerged. While there has been some change—most notably, the elevation of Condoleezza Rice to secretary of state and primary policy pilot—there is also a great deal of continuity, particularly in the Pentagon, where Donald Rumsfeld still rules supreme. In addition to fighting wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, the defense secretary is leading the charge on a third front—the internal fight to transform the U.S. military. Yet two recent books by experienced war correspondents tell important stories that call parts of the transformation program into question. David Zucchino and Sean Naylor, both “embedded” with units in the thick of operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, respectively, perform the traditional journalist's function of telling truth to power. Their books and their messages deserve careful scrutiny.
Topic:
Security and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, and Iraq

1082. Counterinsurgency and Democracy: Strategic Implications of the Iraqi Elections

Author:
Vance Serchuk and Thomas Donnelly
Publication Date:
02-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
As this goes to press, Iraqis are preparing to vote on January 30 in what will be their country's first democratic elections in nearly fifty years. In the face of the ongoing insurgency in the Sunni Triangle and efforts by guerrillas to disrupt voting, however, a chorus of voices—from former U.S. national security advisers to prominent Sunni politicians—is warning that the elections are likely to do more harm than good, strengthening the very forces responsible for the violence. But while some of these critics raise compelling objections, they fail to grasp why it is precisely U.S. counterinsurgency strategy—as much as any abstract, moral commitment to democracy—that makes holding elections more, rather than less, necessary.
Topic:
Security and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
United States and Iraq

1083. Transforming America's Alliances

Author:
Vance Serchuk and Thomas Donnelly
Publication Date:
01-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
Despite ingrained perceptions of unilateralism, the Bush administration has overseen the most sweeping expansion of American security commitments around the world since the dawn of the Cold War. Even as recriminations over Iraq dominate headlines, the contours of a new alliance system are quietly emerging out of America's partnerships with dozens of countries, from Mali to the Philippines, under attack by al Qaeda and its ideological affiliates. The challenge now is to ensure that this coalition of the willing is also a coalition of the committed—an enduring network of relationships for fighting the war on terror that the Bush administration can bequeath to its successors, be they Democrat or Republican.
Topic:
Security and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, America, and Philippines

1084. Stretching the Model of "Coalitions of the Willing"

Author:
Andrew F. Cooper
Publication Date:
10-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
Two models may be draw up of coalitions of the willing. The first model is epitomized by the group of countries assembled by the United States for the mobilization of the 2003 Iraq war. The second model is the form of coalition associated with the anti-personnel landmines campaign and the initiative on the International Criminal Court in the mid to late 1990s. This paper will explore the relationship between these different types of coalitions. The former type is characterized by a top-down, state-centric, and coerced/opportunistic strategic form. The latter type by way of contrast takes a bottom-up, voluntary, mixed actor, diplomatic approach. Yet, along side these differences are some striking, but unanticipated similarities. Most dramatically, both types have been assembled on an intense stylistic basis with an eye to avoiding the frustrations associated with working via established institutions. By looking more closely at the external expression and inner workings of these modes of activity, the model of coalitions of the willing is stretched out in terms of their motivations, sense of ownership, and future trajectory.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Development, and Government
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, and Middle East

1085. Observations on Local Insurgents and Foreign Fighters in Iraq: an Interview with Mark Edmond Clark

Author:
Mark E. Clark
Publication Date:
05-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Columbia International Affairs Online
Abstract:
CIAO: There has been considerable discussion lately among analysts of U.S. foreign policy on the insurgency in Iraq. Although you have not dealt with the local insurgents or foreign fighters operating in Iraq, previously you managed to observe up close the preparations made by Serbian nationalist groups in Republika Srpska, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and by Yugoslav military, security services, and Serbian nationalist paramilitary groups in the Kosovo-Metohija province of Serbia for long-term insurgencies against the U.S. and NATO. Using that expertise, and your knowledge of events in Iraq, could you share some thoughts on the insurgency in Iraq?
Topic:
War
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Bosnia, Herzegovina, Middle East, Arabia, Kosovo, and Serbia

1086. Observations on U.S. Strategies in the Persian Gulf Region, 1941-2005: From the Atlantic Charter, the Twin Pillars and Dual Containment, to the "Axis of Evil"; and Beyond

Author:
Christopher D. O'Sullivan
Publication Date:
01-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Columbia International Affairs Online
Abstract:
Neoconservative supporters of President Bush are supposedly fond of the notion that, while Baghdad is for "men," "real men" go to Tehran. But are there larger implications of this notion beyond the swagger implied? What is the link between the war in Iraq and future US policy toward Iran? Is the war in Iraq perceived in neoconservative -- or "Vulcan" -- circles as a mere stepping stone to a confrontation with Iran? Where do Iraq and Iran fit into the larger historical framework of US interests in the Persian Gulf?
Topic:
International Relations and Security
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Iran, Middle East, and Tehran

1087. The Role of Small Arms during the 2003-2004 Conflict in Iraq

Author:
Gilbert Burnham, Riyadh Lafta, Les Roberts, and Richard Garfield
Publication Date:
09-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
Iraq underwent a particularly deadly war with neighbouring Iran during the 1980s with perhaps a million deaths occurring. Following the Persian Gulf war of 1991, more than 60,000 Iraqis were believed to have been killed by the government in retaliation for perceived support of the US-led coalition during the conflict. The level of violence within Iraq has not been well recorded in recent years and, in fact, no survey or census-based estimate of crude mortality has been made in Iraq since 1997 and the last estimate of mortality in children under five years of age was a UNICEF-sponsored demographic survey of 1999.
Topic:
International Relations, Arms Control and Proliferation, and War
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

1088. The Shiite Question in Saudi Arabia

Publication Date:
09-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
From Saudi Arabia's establishment in 1932, its minority Shiite population has been subject to discrimination and sectarian incitement. Beginning in the early 1990s, with then Crown Prince Abdullah's active support, the government took steps to improve inter-sectarian relations. But the measures were modest, and tensions are rising. The war in Iraq has had a notable effect, strengthening Shiite aspirations and Sunni suspicions and generally deepening confessional divisions throughout the region. King Abdullah needs to act resolutely to improve the lot of the two-million strong Shiite community and rein in domestic expressions of anti-Shiite hostility.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Government, and Religion
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and Saudi Arabia

1089. Iran: What Does Ahmadi-Nejad's Victory Mean?

Publication Date:
08-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The surprise election of Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad, who is being sworn in as president this week, has given rise to dire predictions about Iran's domestic and foreign policies and relations with the U.S. and the European Union. There are reasons for concern. Based on his rhetoric, past performance, and the company he keeps, Ahmadi-Nejad appears a throwback to the revolution's early days: more ideological, less pragmatic, and anti- American. But for the West, and the U.S. in particular, to reach and act upon hasty conclusions would be wrong. Iran is governed by complex institutions and competing power centres that inherently favour continuity over change. More importantly , none of the fundamentals has changed: the regime is not about to collapse; it holds pivotal cards on Iraq and nuclear proliferation; and any chance of modifying its behaviour will come, if at all, through serious, coordinated EU and U.S. efforts to engage it.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Human Welfare
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Iran, and Middle East

1090. Counter-Terrorism in Somalia: Losing Hearts and Minds?

Publication Date:
07-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Nearly four years after 9/11 , hardly a day passes without the "war on terrorism" making headlines, with Iraq, Afghanistan, Indonesia and now London holding centre stage. But away from the spot light, a quiet, dirty conflict is being waged in Somalia: in the rubble-strewn streets of the ruined capital of this state without a government, Mogadishu, al-Qaeda operatives, jihadi extremists, Ethiopian security services and Western-backed counter-terrorism networks are engaged in a shadowy and complex contest waged by intimidation, abduction and assassination. The U.S. has had some success but now risks evoking a backlash. Ultimately a successful counter-terrorism strategy requires more attention to helping Somalia with the twin tasks of reconciliation and state building.
Topic:
Terrorism and War
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Africa, United States, Iraq, Indonesia, Middle East, London, and Somalia