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1361. The US Economic Outlook

Author:
Martin Neil Baily and Jacob Funk Kirkegaard
Publication Date:
04-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
Oil prices have risen and are expected to remain high. Slow job and wage growth result in slow income growth. Low interest rates kept housing and auto sales strong after 2000 – borrowing future growth. No new stimulus from monetary or fiscal policy. The Iraq war and the terrorism threat may be a drag on confidence. Because 9/11 did not have significant macroeconomic effects, the impact of the war and terrorism seems to be mostly on oil prices No new stimulus from monetary or fiscal policy.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States and Iraq

1362. Power-Sharing in Iraq

Author:
David L. Phillips
Publication Date:
04-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Iraq's elections on January 30, 2005, were a watershed in the country's history. Still, democracy involves much more than voting. It is about the distribution of political power through institutions and laws that guarantee accountable rule. The real fight for power will be over Iraq's permanent constitution.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Development, and Government
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

1363. In the Wake of War: Improving U.S. Post-Conflict Capabilities

Author:
William L. Nash, Brent Scowcroft, and Samuel R. Berger
Publication Date:
09-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
From Mogadishu to Mosul, the United States has undertaken six major nation-building operations around the world since 1993. The challenges of terrorism, failed states, and proliferation indicate this trend will only continue. Today, in Iraq, the United States carries the bulk of the nation-building burden. Some 135,000 U.S. troops remain on the ground, at an approximate cost of $50 billion per year. Nearly four years after forcing out the Taliban in Afghanistan, 9,000 NATO forces and 17,000 U.S. troops remain in that country to secure the peace and continue the hunt for al-Qaeda.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and International Security
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, Iraq, and Taliban

1364. The Economic Costs of the War in Iraq

Author:
Katrina Kosec and Scott Wallsten
Publication Date:
09-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
Government policies are routinely subjected to rigorous cost analyses. Yet one of today's most controversial and expensive policies—the ongoing war in Iraq—has not been. The $212 billion allocated by the U.S. Treasury has been widely reported. But the real, direct economic costs include more than budgetary allocations. Other costs include lives lost, injuries, and lost civilian productivity of National Guard and Reserve troops mobilized for the conflict. The conflict, however, also has gene rated cost savings, especially in terms of resources no longer being used to enforce UN sanctions and people no longer being killed by Saddam Hussein's regime.
Topic:
Economics and War
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Palestine

1365. Stretching the Model of "Coalitions of the Willing"

Author:
Andrew F. Cooper
Publication Date:
10-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:
Two models may be draw up of coalitions of the willing. The first model is epitomized by the group of countries assembled by the United States for the mobilization of the 2003 Iraq war. The second model is the form of coalition associated with the anti-personnel landmines campaign and the initiative on the International Criminal Court in the mid to late 1990s. This paper will explore the relationship between these different types of coalitions. The former type is characterized by a top-down, state-centric, and coerced/opportunistic strategic form. The latter type by way of contrast takes a bottom-up, voluntary, mixed actor, diplomatic approach. Yet, along side these differences are some striking, but unanticipated similarities. Most dramatically, both types have been assembled on an intense stylistic basis with an eye to avoiding the frustrations associated with working via established institutions. By looking more closely at the external expression and inner workings of these modes of activity, the model of coalitions of the willing is stretched out in terms of their motivations, sense of ownership, and future trajectory.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Development, and Government
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, and Middle East

1366. International, Imperial, Exceptional

Author:
R.B.J Walker
Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Cultures & Conflits
Institution:
Cultures & Conflits
Abstract:
Claims about the international, the imperial and the exceptional are all currently used to analyse contemporary political life. This paper explores what is at stake in each of these three concepts and examines the relationship between them ; affirms the decreasing salience of concepts of the international and the imperial and the increasing force of concepts of the exceptional ; sketches a threefold critique of Schmitt's particular understanding of sovereignty as a capacity to decide exceptions ; considers the implications of this critique for Kant's status as a critical theorist ; and tries to open up the question of what it has come to mean to invoke the exceptional since the attacks of New York and the invasion of Iraq. Il est souvent fait recours aux termes international, impérial etexceptionnel pour analyser la vie politique contemporaine. Cet article explore ce qui se joue en chacun de ces trois concepts et examine les relations qu'ils entretiennent ; il insiste sur la saillance perdue des concepts d'international et d'impérial et la force croissante des concepts de l'exceptionnel ; il esquisse une triple critique de la conception particulière de la souveraineté par Karl Schmitt, entendue comme la capacité à décider des exceptions ; il prend en considération les implications de cette critique sur le statut de penseur critique attribué à Kant ; il essaye enfin d'ouvrir sur la question de savoir ce que signifie le fait d'invoquer l'exceptionnel depuis les attaques sur New York et l'invasion de l'Irak.
Political Geography:
Iraq and New York

1367. Draft Constitution Gained, but an Important Opportunity Was Lost

Author:
Mona Iman
Publication Date:
10-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
While the outcome of Iraq's October 15 national referendum is uncertain, it is clear that many of Iraq's Sunni Arabs will vote against it. Why are Sunni Arabs opposed to a constitution that appears to give them the same opportunities for self-governance that it provides to Kurds and Shia?
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Religion
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

1368. Iraq before the Election: Constructing a National Narrative

Author:
Courtney Rusin
Publication Date:
12-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Iraq will elect a new parliament on December 15th. The new government—whatever its composition—will then be in a race to build a democratic order before the insurgency creates enough chaos to break it down. Whether or not the government succeeds depends on how political events of the past two years have set the stage for the December elections—and on the prospects of creating a national narrative that encompasses all of Iraq's main political and ethno-sectarian groups.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, and Politics
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

1369. Protecting the Future: Constitutional Safeguards for Iraq's Oil Revenues

Publication Date:
05-2005
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Open Society Foundations
Abstract:
Published by the Open Society Iraq Revenue Watch, the following report argues that Iraq's future peace and security depend on instituting constitutional safeguards guaranteeing financial accountability and the equitable division of oil revenues. Protecting the Future: Constitutional Safeguards for Iraq's Oil Revenues comes as the new Iraqi government prepares to draft the country's first permanent constitution since Saddam Hussein was ousted. The report urges lawmakers to protect against oil-sector corruption and mismanagement. Protecting the Future also warns of civil conflict unless oil revenues are fairly distributed among Iraq's ethnic and religious groups. In Iraq, rifts over oil revenues run deep, as Iraqi Kurds, Arabs, and Turkmen struggle for control of oil-rich Kirkuk. Without constitutional provisions that protect its oil revenues, Iraq is likely to follow the path of so many other natural resource-rich nations that are dogged by corruption and bad governance. Most oil-dependent states have “ultra-presidential” governments, which enable the executive branch to use resource revenues as it sees fit. Protecting the Future explores ways that Iraq can avoid this trap by embedding measures for accountability into the future Iraqi constitution. The report recommends provisions that make clear which agencies are responsible for the development and implementation of the Iraqi budget, and grant oversight of oil revenues to all branches of government—executive, legislative, and judicial.
Topic:
Oil, Natural Resources, Governance, Oversight, and Revenue Management
Political Geography:
Iraq

1370. After Intervention: Public Security Management in Post-Conflict Societies - From Intervention to Sustainable Local Ownership

Author:
Anja H. Ebnöther and Philipp H. Fluri
Publication Date:
08-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Austrian National Defence Academy
Abstract:
The transition from interventionist (military) peace-keeping to local (civilian) ownership of public security management has proved not only to be a severe challenge for most peace-keeping operations and their civilian administrators, but also a reason for such operations being prolonged at tremendous cost. In many cases, peace-keeping operations and/or other international agents rapidly became part of the local economy, and thus contributed to the preservation of the status quo rather than to a sustainable process leading toward local governance; meanwhile local police organs - often remnants of the winning force in the antecedent conflict - remained tribal or clannish in their approaches and interests. They could thus hardly be seen as enforcement agencies of a law which remains equally applied to all citizens.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Security, Development, International Organization, and War
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and Balkans