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721. Geopolitics of the Iranian Nuclear Energy Program: But Oil and Gas Still Matter

Author:
Robert E. Ebel
Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
“The policies of Iran constitute perhaps the single greatest challenge for American security interests in the Middle East, and possibly around the world….” So said Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice in testimony before the House Foreign Affairs Committee on October 24, 2007. What policies did Secretary Rice have in mind? The combination of terrorism, repression at home, and the pursuit of nuclear weapons technology. Opposition comes from former administration officials as well, who are equally convinced that Iran's desire for nuclear weapons is one of the most urgent issues facing the United States today. And in a report released by the U.S. Department of State on April 30, 2009, Iran was characterized as the “most active state sponsor of terrorism” in the world.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

722. The Gulf Military Balance in 2010

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman and Aram Nerguizian
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The Gulf military balance is dominated by five major factors: The Southern Gulf states, Iran, Iraq, outside powers like the US, and non-state actors like the various elements of Al Qa'ida, the Mahdi militia, and various tribal forces. At present, the Southern Gulf states have large military resources but limited real-world effectivenerss and have made limited progress towards collective and integrated defense.
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Iran, and Middle East

723. Options in Dealing with Iran's Nuclear Program

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman and Abdullah Toukan
Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Iran is a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), and ranks among the world's top three holders of both proven oil and natural gas reserves. Iran is OPEC's second-largest producer and exporter after Saudi Arabia, and is the fourth-largest exporter of crude oil globally after Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Norway. As of January 2009, Iran has an estimated 136.2 billion barrels of proven oil reserves, or roughly 10 percent of the world's total proven petroleum.
Topic:
OPEC
Political Geography:
Russia, Iran, Middle East, Norway, and Saudi Arabia

724. Iran's Youth: The Protests Are Not Over

Author:
Tara Nesvaderani
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Iran has the most politically active youth among the 57 nations of the Islamic world. As the most restive segment of their society, Iranian youth also represent one of the greatest longterm threats to the current form of theocratic rule. Young activists have heavily influenced the Islamic Republic's political agenda over the past 13 years. After the 2009 presidential election, youth and women were the two biggest blocs behind the region's first sustained “people power” movement for democratic change, creating a new political model in the Middle East. The Islamic Republic has forcibly regained control over the most rebellious sector of society through mass detentions of young activists, expulsions from universities and widening the powers of its own young paramilitary forces. Nevertheless, the demands from young people have not changed over the past year, and their anger is boiling just beneath the surface. The regime also remains vulnerable because it has failed to address basic socioeconomic problems among youth. The impact of Iran's youth on the political, economic and social agenda of the country over the next 25 years is important for U.S. policymakers to consider when facing complex decisions in balancing Iran's nuclear program and its internal political turmoil.
Topic:
Economics and Politics
Political Geography:
Iran

725. Israel and America's Flotilla Follies (and How To Avoid Them in the Future)

Author:
Craig Biddle
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Objective Standard
Institution:
The Objective Standard
Abstract:
On May 31, 2010, a flotilla of six ships manned by alleged "peace activists" motored toward Gaza, which, since 2007, has been controlled by the Iranian-sponsored terrorist group Hamas. But because Hamas openly seeks to destroy Israel and has already fired "more than 4,000 rockets and mortar shells [into the state] from Gaza," Israel has imposed a blockade on the region. The "peace activists" ostensibly sought to breach the blockade and reach Gaza to deliver "humanitarian aid." Their real goal, however, was revealed by their own words and actions.
Topic:
Government and Islam
Political Geography:
America, Iran, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

726. Afghanistan Implementation Colloquium

Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination, Princeton University
Abstract:
The tone of the conference was set by the leitmotiv of LISD's Afghanistan project work since 2001: “by, for, and with the Afghans and Afghanistan.” Most importantly this focuses on Afghan ownership and Afghan sovereignty, and the capability to determine the nation's destiny. However, the atmosphere and attitudes in and around Afghanistan seem to have noticeably shifted in the last eighteen months, especially with regard to the growing trust deficit between Afghans and the international community. Various actors within Afghanistan and within the region are now realigning their policies, motivated mainly by the perception of an impending draw down of international forces in Afghanistan. The possible heightening of tensions with Afghanistan's western neighbor, Iran, over its nuclear ambitions further complicates the West's calculus of involvement in the region.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, War, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Iran

727. "U.S.-Iran Cultural Diplomacy: A Historical Perspective"

Author:
Ramin Asgard
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
al Nakhlah
Institution:
The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:
In his seminal review of modern American cultural diplomacy, The First Resort of Kings, American Cultural Diplomacy in the Twentieth Century (2005), Dr. Richard Arndt explored the full breadth of this important element of American international statecraft. Arndt defined cultural diplomacy by first considering how it contrasted with “cultural relations, or “relations between national cultures, those aspects of intellect and education lodged in any society that tend to cross borders and connect with foreign institutions.” Cultural diplomacy, he stated, “can only be said to take place when formal diplomats, serving national governments, try to shape and channel this natural flow to advance national interests.”
Topic:
Government
Political Geography:
United States, America, and Iran

728. Strategic Competition With Iran: The Military Dimension

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman, Vivek Kocharlakota, and Adam Seitz
Publication Date:
08-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
US competition with Iran has become the equivalent of a game of three-dimensional chess, in which other states are outside players that can constantly intervene, and one where each side can modify at least some of the rules with each move. It is a game that has been going on for some three decades. It is clearly unlikely to be ended by better dialog and mutual understanding, and that Iran's version of “democracy” is unlikely to change the way it is played in the foreseeable future. This does not make dialogue and negotiation pointless. Dialogue and negotiation do reduce the risk of escalation and misunderstanding. They offer a peaceful means of placing limits on Iran's behavior, of helping to convince Iran's regime that such limits are really in its interest, and establishing “rules of the game” which limit the risks involved to both sides.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Nuclear Weapons, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
United States and Iran

729. Fresh sanctions on Iran : Will these help?

Author:
Kingshuk Chatterjee
Publication Date:
08-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute of Foreign Policy Studies, University of Calcutta
Abstract:
By all reckoning, the latest round of UN sanctions on Iran (Resolution 1929, 9th June 2010), backed up by further extension and expansion of the scope of US sanctions (June 2010) and imposition of EU sanctions on 26th July 2010, should make life very difficult for the Islamic Republic. The continued tightening of the sanctions regime indicates the serious concerns that Tehran have aroused over the development of its nuclear programme. Iran professes its commitment to only a civilian nuclear programme in conformity with its obligations under the Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty (NPT); a large number of states of the international community suspect Iran of developing a military programme behind the cover of its legitimate civilian one. Tehran's protestations of innocence of the charge have regularly been dismissed by most of its neighbours, and even the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has not been fully satisfied on this point by Tehran. The issue has generated a set of proposed responses from various members of the international community, ranging from extreme options of surgical strikes against Iran's nuclear facilities (favoured by Israel, and under consideration in some segments of the US administration), through moderate options of international sanctions regime (favoured by most of the states, including USA and the EU) to the softer options of persuasion by continued and growing diplomatic engagement (China and Russia). Over the past two years, international opinion has steadily drifted towards a tight sanctions regime, reflected in the UN Resolution in June 2010 and that of the EU in July. Valid questions are, however, being raised about the efficacy of the international sanctions regime.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, United Nations, and Sanctions
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, China, Iran, Israel, and Tehran

730. Significance of Turkey-Brazil Nuclear Deal with Iran

Author:
Mehmet Ozkan
Publication Date:
08-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute of Foreign Policy Studies, University of Calcutta
Abstract:
With the participation of the foreign ministers of Turkey and Brazil along with Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Iran has signed a joint declaration on May 17, 2010 with Brazil and Turkey "in which Iran agreed to send low-enriched uranium to Turkey in return for enriched fuel for a research reactor.” This joint declaration was considered a very serious one by specialists closely following the nuclear negotiations. However, instead of responding positively to the agreement, the US and the overall reaction of the West had fixated on making sanctions against Iran a reality, although the content of the deal was what the US sought from Iran. This has materialized itself with the new UN Security Council decision which brings new sanctions on Iran. On June 9, 2010, the UN Security Council passed Resolution 1929, imposing a complete arms embargo on Iran, travel bans on certain Iranian figures, banned Iran from any activities related to ballistic missiles, the freezing of all assets to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, and Iran Shipping Lines, and to inspect all Iranian cargo or financial institutions, such as banks, on their territory.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Iran, Turkey, Brazil, and Latin America