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681. Prospects for Democratization in Iran: Policy Implications

Author:
Dariush Zahedi
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Insight Turkey
Institution:
SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:
The breakdown or modification of the Islamic Republic, though not imminent, is increasingly conceivable. However, in the event that the regime were to fall, Iran is bereft of many of the social and economic requisites for a stable democracy to emerge. About 80% of the Iranian economy is in the hands of the state, the private sector is dependent and feeble, and the 70% of the Iranians that are under the age of 30 are neither propertied nor middle class. This has implications for US policy, made all the more urgent by the timeline imposed by the looming nuclear issue. Rather than experiment with ineffectual and counter-productive attempts at democracy promotion, this study suggests that a policy of long-term international diplomatic and economic engagement is the best available tool for transforming Iranian society and politics in such a way that a transition to a sustained and stable democracy and, by implication, a resolution of Iran's nuclear issue, becomes more likely.
Topic:
Economics and Islam
Political Geography:
Iran

682. Europe, the Mediterranean, the Middle East and the Need for Triangulation

Author:
Richard Youngs and Ana Echague
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The International Spectator
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
European Union policy towards the Middle East and North Africa suffers from geographic fragmentation and an increasing functional imbalance which reflects a growing trend towards securitisation. While policy towards the Mediterranean is highly institutionalised, the Gulf Cooperation Council states receive much less attention and policies towards Iran, Iraq and the occupied Palestinian territories exist in isolation. A narrow focus on an exclusionist approach to security has taken over to the detriment of political and economic concerns. The shortcomings in European foreign policy towards the broader Middle East in terms of lack of breadth and coherence need to be addressed in order to forge a more cohesive and effective policy.
Topic:
Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
Iraq, Europe, Iran, Middle East, and North Africa

683. Moving Beyond Coercive Diplomacy: A New Policy Approach Toward Iran's Nuclear Ambitions.

Author:
Brandon M. Boylan
Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Woodrow Wilson School Journal of Public and International Affairs
Institution:
Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University
Abstract:
Iran's nuclear brinkmanship cannot be sustained much longer. The Iranian government continues to evade nuclear inspections, reject incentive packages, and test missiles while driving forward its nuclear program. Moreover, the outcome of the June 2009 elections has guaranteed that President Ahmadinejad's power will not wane soon, diminishing hopes for a change in the status quo. Meanwhile, the international community remains in the dark about Iran's nuclear development and how to proceed in a way that will deliver desirable results. How long will it take Iran to construct a nuclear weapon? What should be done about it? And who should do it? The Bush administration was unable to assemble a strategy that rendered solutions – or even progress. From threats of a military attack to diplomatic force, no approach proved effective. Though the Obama administration is willing to advance a new agenda, it must first reconcile past missteps without appearing soft on the issue.
Topic:
Government and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
Iran

684. Iranian Youth in Times of Economic Crisis

Author:
Djavad Salehi-Isfahani
Publication Date:
08-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Young people in Iran have emerged as important players on the country's political scene but remain marginal on its economic scene. They were a vital part of President Khatami's political base and contributed to his landslide victories at the polls, in 1997 and 2001. In June 2009 they again played a key role, this time in challenging President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's controversial reelection, which led to massive anti-government protests in the nation's largest cities. A year later the political crisis appears to have subsided, but the economic crisis that has engulfed the country since early 2008 has deepened, and with it the crisis facing Iran's youth. Youth unemployment is at record high levels and, for the majority of youth, marriage and family formation are increasingly becoming challenges to overcome rather than celebrations of reaching adulthood.
Topic:
Islam, Labor Issues, and Youth Culture
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and Asia

685. Iran's Youth, The Unintended Victims of Sanctions

Author:
Djavad Salehi-Isfahani
Publication Date:
08-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
The effect of the international sanctions on Iran is to deepen its current economic recession and make recovery very difficult if not impossible. In doing so, it will inflict pain on the general population. By prolonging the recession, the sanctions will hurt Iran's youth (15-29 year olds) particularly harshly, as they will bear the brunt of the resulting unemployment. They account for 70 percent of unemployment, and any improvement in their condition depends on economic recovery.
Topic:
Economics and Sanctions
Political Geography:
United States and Iran

686. Religion and International Relations: Some General Reflections, with Particular Emphasis on the Experience of the Islamic Republic

Author:
Dr. Hassan Rouhani
Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Iranian Review of Foreign Affairs
Institution:
Center for Strategic Research (CSR)
Abstract:
The dominant perception in the indicate that the march of modernity would lead to the marginalization of the role of religion in the public sphere, including in the politics and International Relations same lines. The emergence of a strong counter based outlook especially in t challenge that seemingly entrenched conviction. The establishment of the Islamic Republic of Iran in state – served as the climax of that counter implications and repercussions, for the region, for the Muslim world, and also for international relations. The present essay is an attempt to look into these issues. It will be argued that the new religious counter a process across the Islamic world geared to the preservation and revival of the Islamic identity, and also relying on Islam and its teaching to shape and guide governance in Muslim lands. The essay will also try to have a look at some of the chall involved in the process; that is, the challenges Islamic governance will face in dealing with others system and its components.
Political Geography:
Iran

687. Reflections on Iran's Foreign Policy: Spiritual Pragmatism

Author:
Rouhollah K. Ramazani
Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Iranian Review of Foreign Affairs
Institution:
Center for Strategic Research (CSR)
Abstract:
The present essay argues that Iran's foreign policy since the Revolution has pursued an overall aspirational paradigm which I call “spiritual pragmatic”, embodying two seemingly conflicting elements – spirituality and pragmatism. It is also suggested hybrid approach to foreign policy is nothing new to Iran; rather, in fact, it dates as far back as ancient pre recently, since the reign of the Safavids in the of the argument here is to try to post-revolutionary Iranian foreign policy as either “irrational”, “paranoid” or something of that sort or order.
Political Geography:
Iran

688. A World Free of Nuclear Weapons: Towards a Nuclear Weapons Free Zone in the Middle East

Author:
Amir H. Zamaninia
Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Iranian Review of Foreign Affairs
Institution:
Center for Strategic Research (CSR)
Abstract:
The idea of establishing a Weapons of Mass Nuclear Weapon Free Zone in the Middle East is not new; it dates back to 1970's. today has compelled most analysts to look at the idea and the concept anew. Most regard the potential arms race in the Middle East to seriously jeopardize the prospects for long term stability and balance of power in the region. Israel, Iran and Egypt seem to have the main regional role in making or breaking this idea for another forty years. The absence of real Israeli conflict and the hesitant international expectation to make some movements in that front, as well as Iran's nuclear program being considered at the UN Security Council, where Iran is being practically considered guilty until pr window of opportunity to creative thinking and planning for advancing the idea of Weapons of Mass Destruction Free Zone in the Middle East.
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Egypt

689. Iran-US Nuclear Standoff: A Game Theory Approach

Author:
Mohammad Ali Mousavi and Yasser Norouzi
Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Iranian Review of Foreign Affairs
Institution:
Center for Strategic Research (CSR)
Abstract:
For almost three decades since the Iranian Revolution of 1979, there has consistently been a conflict between Iran and the United States over a host of issues. The relations between the two countries became more challenging since 2003 after it came to light that Iran had been developing its nuclear program. Since then some US officials have even gone so far as to announce - and repeat - the possibility of a military strike against Iranian facilities to end the nuclear program. In reality, up to now no such drastic action has taken place. Rather instead, in a milder reaction, the US, aided by its European allies and enjoying Russian and Chinese lukewarm acquiescence, has imposed several rounds of sanctions against Iran through the adoption of obligatory resolutions by the United Nations Security Council. But, these actions have failed to force the Iranians to end their program. As a result, many experts argue that a new policy should be pursued toward Iran vis-a-vis its nuclear dossier. So the main challenge which poses itself is to predict when and how this conflict will come to an end. In this paper, different game theory models are used to interpret the current situation of the crisis. It is shown that while at each step it may be more favorable for each party to insist on its claims, the overall result of this approach may not be so favorable for all. As a result, both parties should think about the long term effects of their decisions. It is also shown that the absence of mutual trust could be the main factor that has forced both sides to reach the current point of crisis. Therefore, any attempt towards re-establishing mutual trust between the two governments might be a major step leading to a lasting solution. Furthermore, different possible choices for the US government and the long term effects of each choice will be analyzed. The analysis will also address economic aspects of the conflict, and the long-term effects of any decision and the best possible choices for both governments will be presented.
Topic:
United Nations
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, China, and Iran

690. Domestic Ideational Sources of Iran's Foreign Policy

Author:
Homeira Moshirzadeh
Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Iranian Review of Foreign Affairs
Institution:
Center for Strategic Research (CSR)
Abstract:
Iranian foreign policy during the post-revolutionary period has often been described as pursuing ideological objectives and means. Given the problems usually associated with the concept of ideology, the alternative concept of "domestic ideational sources" would offer a broader perspective and prove less problematic. By this concept is meant the totality of ideas, norms, rules, and discourses that in their inter-relations make the material life meaningful. The basic conceptual and theoretical aspects of the role of ideas and domestic ideational sources in foreign policy - in general and with particular emphasis on the realist outlook - are discussed in the first part of the article.
Political Geography:
Iran