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671. Iran's Youth: Agents of Change

Author:
Tara Nesvaderani
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Iran has the most politically active youth among the 57 nations of the Islamic world. As the most restive segment of their society, Iranian youth also represent one of the greatest longterm threats to the current form of theocratic rule. Young activists have heavily influenced the Islamic Republic's political agenda over the past 13 years. After the 2009 presidential election, youth and women were the two biggest blocs behind the region's first sustained “people power” movement for democratic change, creating a new political model in the Middle East. The Islamic Republic has forcibly regained control over the most rebellious sector of society through mass detentions of young activists, expulsions from universities and widening the powers of its own young paramilitary forces. Nevertheless, the demands from young people have not changed over the past year, and their anger is boiling just beneath the surface. The regime also remains vulnerable because it has failed to address basic socioeconomic problems among youth. The impact of Iran's youth on the political, economic and social agenda of the country over the next 25 years is important for U.S. policymakers to consider when facing complex decisions in balancing Iran's nuclear program and its internal political turmoil.
Topic:
Islam, Politics, and Youth Culture
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

672. Iran's Nuclear Program: The US Misses Opportunities? –An Examination of US Policies in the Middle East and Implications of those Policies on the US Global Position–

Author:
Adem Ogultarhan
Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Alternatives: Turkish Journal of International Relations
Institution:
Center for International Conflict Resolution at Yalova University
Abstract:
US actions in Iraq and Afghanistan cause people to think that the US can resort to military measures against Iran as well. However the US invasion of Iraq and the uncertainties prevailing because of the invasion make analysts to question the necessity of military operations, because it might bring further uncertainties to region and to world politics. In this paper, it is argued that the US priorities in the Middle East are not well-defined and its policies are contaminated with cultural misperceptions, as seen in the case of the Iran's nuclear program. Historical, technical and international law aspects of Iran's nuclear program would be surveyed and the US policies regarding Iran's nuclear program would be analyzed. The US interests in the region would be discussed and the most known clichés regarding Iran and US relations would be questioned. It is the argument that US policies in the Middle East are not well-calculated in terms of the US global realpolitik concerns; and current US policies in the region harm the US interests in global stage. Thus, the US confrontation with Iran makes the potential cooperation opportunities with the Middle Eastern countries missed.
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, Iraq, and Iran

673. Understanding Iran's Foreign Policy: An Application of Holistic Constructivism

Author:
Mahdi Mohammad Nia
Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Alternatives: Turkish Journal of International Relations
Institution:
Center for International Conflict Resolution at Yalova University
Abstract:
This article seeks to explain why Iranian foreign policy toward the western countries in general and The United States in particular even under the systemic pressures has remained relatively unchanged. To this end, the present article identifies the determinant factors affect Iranian foreign policy. Since the 1979 Islamic revolution, Iranian foreign and security policy has been dominated by a new set of revolutionary values and discourses. The author believes that the foreign policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran mostly is driven by its revolutionary values and ideological perspectives than the logic of nation states. To understand Iranian foreign behavior, one should try to understand the basic characteristics of the country's normative and discursive structures. Hence, this article argues that due to the role of normative factors in constructing Iranian foreign policy, the Holistic constructivist approach is considered the most applicable theory for explaining the country's foreign policy.
Political Geography:
United States and Iran

674. Ukraine: A Challenge for U.S., EU NATO Regional Policy

Author:
Tamerlan Vahabov
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Caucasian Review of International Affairs
Institution:
The Caucasian Review of International Affairs
Abstract:
President Barack Obama's current strategy of engagement with former adversaries is right on track. Russia stands out as a major short-term success story of this strategy. The signing of the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) Agreement, achieving Russia's approval to use its territory as an alternative supply route for the International Security Assistance Force's (ISAF) operations in Afghanistan, and Russia's increased activity to pressure Iran on nuclear issues are remarkable. In the long run, Obama's main challenge will be to turn these concessions into sustained cooperation. Among all these questions of potential contention between the United States and Russia, this research paper will specifically center on Ukraine. Its key objective is to assess whether Ukraine's current institutional neutrality and its so far unreformed energy sector will negatively affect Ukrainian democracy and make Kiev increasingly lean toward Moscow's political orbit.
Topic:
NATO
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Russia, United States, Europe, Iran, Ukraine, and Moscow

675. Iran's Foreign Policy during Ahmadinejad: From Confrontation to Accommodation

Author:
Amir M. Haji-Yousefi
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Alternatives: Turkish Journal of International Relations
Institution:
Center for International Conflict Resolution at Yalova University
Abstract:
Some scholars have observed that Iran's foreign policy has leaned toward assertiveness since Mahmood Ahmadinejad came to power in 2005. They have tried to attribute this assertiveness to some internal and external factors. After reviewing the literature, we argue that the assertiveness of Iran's foreign policy during the first period of Ahmadinejad`s presidency is rooted in psychological (Ahmadinejad belief system), social (the social base of the new government), political (factional rivalries), historical (ideals of the Islamic Revolution), and external (the way Western countries treated Iran during Khatami) factors. On the contrary, it seems that Iran's foreign policy since the recent presidential election in 2009 has somehow softened and it appears to be less confrontational. This change, if real, may have significant implications for Iran's relations with the Western countries, particularly the United States. We seek to identify the main reasons for this change and explicate its main consequences for the Iranian foreign relations. This paper has four sections. First, we discuss the main features of Iran's assertive foreign policy during the first period of Ahmadinejad`s presidency. Secondly, we try to explain the main origins of this assertiveness. Thirdly, the recent developments in Iran's foreign policy, especially Ahmadinejad`s new moderate orientation, will be discussed and the main causes will be spelled out. Finally, the main implications of this change in Iran's foreign behavior will be discussed.
Political Geography:
Iran

676. Betting on Perseverance Why the Double Track Approach is Still the Best Way to Deal with the Iranian Nuclear Conundrum

Author:
Riccardo Alcaro
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The standoff over Iran's nuclear programme, suspected of harbouring secret military ends, is widely considered a major flashpoint. A nuclear Iran – as the argument goes – would dramatically alter the regional balance in the Gulf, providing the Islamic Republic with a formidable deterrent against external aggression, while augmenting its ability to exert influence on its neighbours and eliminating the strategic advantage of its rival Israel, the only nuclear-armed state in the Middle East. An Iranian bomb could also trigger a regional nuclear arms race since such countries as Turkey, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia, might feel compelled to emulate Iran. This would in turn result in the eventual collapse of the international nuclear non-proliferation regime based on the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Given the stakes, it comes as no surprise that curbing Iran's nuclear programme has rapidly become a foreign policy priority for western powers, Israel, and the majority of Arab states, which have a history of rivalry with and mistrust of Persian and Shia-dominated Iran.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons, United Nations, and Sanctions
Political Geography:
Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt

677. Geo-Economics of European Gas Security: Trade, Geography and International Politics

Author:
Mert Bilgin
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Insight Turkey
Institution:
SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:
This paper hypothesizes that analyzing the geo-economic and energy security characteristics of gas supplies to Europe may help in understanding the features of regional and international relations with regard to selected countries. The paper highlights the significance of natural gas in the New Energy Order, and points to the importance of supply security for the EU. It looks at Russia, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, Iran, Iraq, Egypt, Libya and Algeria as suppliers and Turkey as a transit country in an emerging gas corridor to Europe. It examines supply-side opportunities, which promote new fields of international cooperation based on gas trade, and addresses certain restraints that may reduce the likelihood of further regional cooperation. Economic and geographic factors create new opportunities for regional trade and international relations. This geoeconomic aspect, however, takes place with international security issues varying from case to case.
Topic:
Security and Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, Iraq, Iran, Kazakhstan, Libya, Algeria, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, and Egypt

678. Frederic Wehrey, Theodore Karasik, Alireza Nader, Jeremy Ghez, Lydia Hansell, Robert Guffey, Saudi-Iranian Relations since the Fall of Saddam

Author:
Raymond Hinnebusch
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Insight Turkey
Institution:
SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:
This slim volume examines a relationship that is pivotal for the stability of the Gulf and the wider Arab world and has major implications for Lebanon, Iraq, the Arab-Israeli conflict and the position of the US in the region.
Topic:
War
Political Geography:
Iran, Israel, and Saudi Arabia

679. Turkey's Iran Policy: Between Diplomacy and Sanctions

Author:
Kadir Üstün
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Insight Turkey
Institution:
SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:
The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) passed the fourth round of sanctions on the Islamic Republic of Iran on June 9, 2010. Turkey, along with Brazil, voted in opposition to sanctions while Lebanon abstained from the vote. Turkey and Brazil's votes were particularly critical because they demonstrated a lack of unity within the international community. The rationale behind Brazil and Turkey's votes derived from the fact that the nuclear swap deal signed by Iran is, so far, the only concrete deal. It represents the only legal basis that the international community can build upon and hold Iran accountable. Although both countries' “no” votes were consistent with their diplomatic efforts, many analysts are criticizing Turkey in particular for not voting with its traditionally strong allies such as the US. Turkey's vote against the new round of sanctions represents an important milestone not because Turkey is abandoning its long-time allies but because Turkey is learning to make its own foreign policy calculations and decisions.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:
United States, Iran, Turkey, Brazil, and Lebanon

680. Regional Energy Equations and Turkish Foreign Policy: The Middle East and the CIS

Author:
Tuncay Babalı
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Insight Turkey
Institution:
SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:
Turkey has become an important east-west and north-south gas and oil transit route and an energy hub, thanks to the Turkish straits, and the existing and proposed pipelines that run through its territory. Economic opportunities, however, can present diplomatic liabilities. In a tough and complicated region, Turkey finds itself caught between the interests of competing superpowers and regional players. As the world's 16th largest economy, Turkey's thirst for energy will only increase. Satisfying this thirst requires not only diversification of sources and routes, but also good relations with all neighbors, in addition to traditional partners. An analysis of Ankara's options and new foreign policy vision shows that Turkey has little choice but to use greater caution and engagement. Following its own national interests and security concerns will drive Turkey to new openings in Syria, Iraq, Iran, Armenia and other CIS countries. Energy will be one of the main pillars of Turkey's policy of engagement and integration in the region.
Topic:
Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
Iraq, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Armenia, and Syria