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1441. Iranian Strategy in Iraq: Politics and "Other Means"

Author:
Joseph Felter and Brian Fishman
Publication Date:
10-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
Iran has a robust program to exert influence in Iraq in order to limit American power-projection capability in the Middle East, ensure the Iraqi government does not pose a threat to Iran, and build a reliable platform for projecting influence further abroad. Iran has two primary modes of influence. First, and most importantly, it projects political influence by leveraging close historical relationships with several Shi'a organizations in Iraq: the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI), the Badr organization, and the Dawah political party. Second, Iran uses the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Qods Force (QF) to provide aid in the form of paramilitary training, weapons, and equipment to various Iraqi militant groups, including Moqtada al-Sadr's Jaysh al-Mahdi (JAM) and the Special Group Criminals (SGCs). Iran also projects influence through economic initiatives and various religious programs. Iranian influence in Iraq is inevitable, and some of it is legal and constructive. Nonetheless, Iranian policy in Iraq is also duplicitous. Iran publicly calls for stability while subverting Iraq's government and illegally sponsoring anti‐government militias.
Topic:
International Political Economy and War
Political Geography:
Iraq, Iran, and Middle East

1442. Online Exclusive, Response TO "Missile Defense Malfunction": Setting the Record Straight

Author:
Lt. Gen. Henry A. Obering III
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Abstract:
In the Spring 2008 Ethics International Affairs article, "Missile Defense Malfunction," Philip Coyle and Victoria Samson systematically misrepresent or ignore key facts to bolster their arguments against deploying defenses in Europe to protect our allies and forces in that region against an emerging intermediate and long-range Iranian ballistic missile threat. I want to set the record straight.
Topic:
Government
Political Geography:
Europe and Iran

1443. Dealing with Iran: Confrontation or Negotiation?

Author:
Mahmood Monshipouri and Banafsheh Keynoush
Publication Date:
09-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Insight Turkey
Institution:
SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:
Conflicting dynamics and power calculations within the Bush administration have given rise to contradictory signals coming from Washington regarding how best to deal with the Iranian puzzle. The situation indicates a lack of strategic coherence that could tip the balance toward a military showdown with Iran. If anything, the 2001 and 2003 wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, which have essentially altered the balance of power to Iran's advantage, represent a total disregard for the ensuing negative consequences for the region. Under such circumstances, the absence of serious, direct talks with Iran have the potential to lead to greater momentum for war. In this paper, we set out to examine the internal and regional consequences of a U.S. attack on Iran, while asserting that the benefits of cooperation outweigh the costs of military confrontation. Negotiating with Iran is the only reasonable solution to the crisis confronting these two powers, and U.S.-Iran rapprochement can have a stabilizing impact on the entire region. Conversely, the implications of confrontation will be horrendously costly and profound.
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, and Iran

1444. Turkey's Middle East Policies: Between Neo-Ottomanism and Kemalism

Author:
Ömer Taspinar
Publication Date:
09-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
In what represents a remarkable departure from its policy of non-involvement, Turkey is once again becoming an important player in the Middle East. In recent years, Ankara has shown a growing willingness to mediate in the Arab– Israeli conflict; attended Arab League conferences; contributed to UN forces in Lebanon and NATO forces in Afghanistan; assumed a leadership position in the Organization of Islamic Conference and established closer ties with Syria, Iran, and Iraq.
Topic:
International Political Economy, Islam, Nationalism, and Religion
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, and Syria

1445. The Iranian Intentions behind Joining the Shanghai Cooperation Organization

Author:
Michael Bell and Mahjoob Zweiri
Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic Studies (CSS)
Abstract:
China welcomed Iran’s desire to strengthen cooperation in all spheres with the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) following its official application in April 2007 to become a full member. With the SCO currently growing into strategic alliance between several of the worlds leading energy producers and two of its most hungry consumers; the United States saw an opportunity to establish itself in the region and therefore lobbied for observer status in 2005, however the request was denied. Since then, we have seen the SCO assume an ideological mantle of growing anti-Americanism. Committed to establishing a new international political and economic order, the association of East Asian states known as the SCO was founded as an intergovernmental organization in Shanghai on15th June, 2001. Its six founding countries; China, Russia Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, with Iran, Mongolia and Pakistan holding roles as country observers, have asppired to mitigate the influence of US power in the region, therefore Iran’s application for full membbership has crucial, and possibly underlying aspects to its reasoning. Therefore we would like to present some information about the SCO to specifically present the benefits Iran would gain by full membership.
Topic:
Energy Policy, International Cooperation, Economy, and Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO)
Political Geography:
China, Iran, Middle East, Asia, and United States of America

1446. The Costs of Containing Iran: Washington's Misguided New Middle East Policy

Author:
Vali Nasr and Ray Takeyh
Publication Date:
01-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Foreign Affairs
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
The Bush administration wants to contain Iran by rallying the support of Sunni Arab states and now sees Iran's containment as the heart of its Middle East policy: a way to stabilize Iraq, declaw Hezbollah, and restart the Arab-Israeli peace process. But the strategy is unsound and impractical, and it will probably further destabilize an already volatile region.
Political Geography:
Iraq, Iran, Washington, Middle East, and Arab Countries

1447. America's Priorities in the War on Terror: Islamists, Iraq, Iran, and Pakistan

Author:
Michael D. Huckabee
Publication Date:
01-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Foreign Affairs
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
The Bush administration's arrogant bunker mentality has been counterproductive at home and abroad. American foreign policy needs to change its tone and attitude, open up, and reach out. In particular, it should focus on eliminating Islamist terrorists, stabilizing Iraq, containing Iran, and toughening its stance with Pakistan.
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Iraq, America, and Iran

1448. Gain Seeking in a "Double Security Dilemma": The Case of OPEC

Author:
Ellinor Zeino-Mahmalat
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
The remarkable stability of the cooperation among the members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has generally been explained by these members' mutual dependency on high and stable oil revenues. Since the OPEC countries, however, face the double security dilemma of both domestic and external security threats, they are not simply eager to secure (absolute) oil revenues for the sake of domestic stability; they are also sensitive to the (relative) oil revenues of their competing or even conflicting partners. The existing approaches of rational egoism and defensive positionalism have proven to be rather inadequate in explaining this kind of gain-seeking behavior. This paper therefore develops the new theoretical approach of “gain-seeking mentalities,” with the objective of tracing variations in OPEC members' gain-seeking behaviors. Using this approach, the empirical assessment of Iran and Iraq during the Iran-Iraq War and Iraq during the Gulf War of 1990/91 shows the extent to which Iran and Iraq altered their gain-seeking behavior as a result of a changing constellation of threats.
Topic:
Security, Economics, Intelligence, and Oil
Political Geography:
Iraq, Iran, and Middle East

1449. Iran's Nuclear Ambitions and Turkey

Author:
Hakki Uygur
Publication Date:
02-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:
The Iranian nuclear issue has serious implications for regional and international security and as such requires a comprehensive analysis of the Iranian domestic power structure, foreign policy decision making process and nuclear diplomacy. Iran has a complex internal decision making process and the management of nuclear issue makes the situation more complicated. This policy brief argues that the Iranian nuclear issue is as much a regional and international issue as it is part of the domestic power struggle in Iran. It also argues that Turkey should follow the nuclear issue closely and play a constructive role in opposing the proliferation of WMD including nuclear weapons in the Middle East while maintaining good relations with Iran.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Iran, Turkey, and Middle East

1450. Iraq after the Surge I: The New Sunni Landscape

Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Against the odds, the U.S. military surge contributed to a significant reduction in violence. Its achievements should not be understated. But in the absence of the fundamental political changes in Iraq the surge was meant to facilitate, its successes will remain insufficient, fragile and reversible. The ever-more relative lull is an opportunity for the U.S. to focus on two missing ingredients: pressuring the Iraqi government to take long overdue steps toward political compromise and altering the regional climate so that Iraq's neighbours use their leverage to encourage that compromise and make it stick. As shown in these two companion reports, this entails ceasing to provide the Iraqi government with unconditional military support; reaching out to what remains of the insurgency; using its leverage to encourage free and fair provincial elections and progress toward a broad national dialogue and compact; and engaging in real diplomacy with all Iraq's neighbours, Iran and Syria included.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, and War
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Iran, Middle East, and Syria