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1402. Saudi Royals Reunited? Crown Prince Sultan Returns Home
- Author:
- Simon Henderson
- Publication Date:
- 12-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Late on December 11, Crown Prince Sultan arrived home to Saudi Arabia after a year's absence that included medical treatment in the United States and a nine-month convalescence at his palace in Morocco. Although described as "enjoying full health" and looking animated, Sultan is believed to still be unwell. In Sultan's absence, King Abdullah named interior minister Prince Nayef to the vacant post of second deputy prime minister, a position construed as crown-prince-in-waiting. Apart from marking a fresh twist in a drawn-out succession process, Sultan's return has implications for Saudi domestic and foreign policy -- particularly, on the eve of a Gulf summit, the continuing tension on the border with Yemen and a potentially nuclear Iran.
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iran, Middle East, Arabia, Saudi Arabia, and Morocco
1403. Icon or Omen? Dubai's Debt Problem and the Gulf
- Author:
- Simon Henderson
- Publication Date:
- 12-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Late on November 25, just before the start of the Islamic Eid festival and, coincidentally, Thanksgiving in the United States, Dubai's flagship investment company Dubai World announced that it would be requesting a six-month delay on paying its debts. Within hours, Dubai's reputation was being rewritten, and its ambition to be a financial center, building on its historic reputation as a focal point for regional trade, was being recast. Uncertainty continued on November 30, when the Dubai government said that it would not guarantee Dubai World's debt. In any event, the larger story has been the nervousness of world financial markets, which are now also evincing worry about the debt of countries like Greece or Ireland. Within the Middle East, the focus is on the extent of support that Dubai will receive from Abu Dhabi, the neighboring -- and richer -- member sheikhdom of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), whether other city-states like Bahrain and Qatar are also at risk, and whether Dubai's links with Iran will change as a result of its financial situation.
- Topic:
- Debt, Economics, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iran, Middle East, Arabia, Bahrain, Dubai, and Abu Dhabi
1404. The Political Economy of Oil in the U.S.-Iran Crisis: U.S. globalized oil interests vs. Iranian regional interests
- Author:
- Thomas W. O'Donnell
- Publication Date:
- 10-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The New School Graduate Program in International Affairs
- Abstract:
- In the U.S.-Iran nuclear crisis, U.S. motivations stem from its role as protector of today's market-centered, global oil system, herein "The One Global Barrel." This market itself is the principal basis of global energy security today, unlike the political-economics of the old neo-colonial system. But, most light-oil reserves are in P ersian Gulf states— Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE, Iran and Iraq. U.S. Grand Strategy prevents any from projecting power affecting another's production and undermining the open market. Hence, Iraq was driven from Kuwait, placed under sanctions and the Ba'athists overthrown. Iran alone now projects power independently. Its nuclear program is a gambit for a Grand Bargain to lift oil sanctions without surrendering Regional power status, or to accomplish this asfait accompli. A future national-democratic Iran could find U.S. limits on sovereign power equally obnoxious. These underlying oil-market interests must be publically recognized to advance negotiation of the present crisis.
- Topic:
- Oil and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iran, Middle East, Kuwait, and United Arab Emirates
1405. Obama's Foreign Policy: Opportunities and Challenges
- Author:
- F. Stephen Larrabee
- Publication Date:
- 01-2009
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Insight Turkey
- Institution:
- SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
- Abstract:
- Obama's election represents an important opportunity to put US- Turkish relations on a new, more cooperative footing. On many issues – especially those related to the Middle East – Obama's positions overlap or closely coincide with those of Turkey more than the policies pursued by the Bush administration. This is particularly true regarding Iran and Syria, which should help to reduce these issues as irritants in US-Turkish relations. The critical question mark is what position Obama will take regarding the Armenian genocide resolution, which is likely to be reintroduced in Congress in 2009. Passage of the resolution could deal a severe blow to prospects for putting US-Turkish relations on a new, more stable footing as well as undermine recent efforts at promoting Turkish-Armenian reconciliation that have opened up since President Gul's historic visit to Yerevan in September
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria
1406. Turkey's Justice and Development Party through Arab Eyes
- Author:
- Mounir Shafiq
- Publication Date:
- 01-2009
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Insight Turkey
- Institution:
- SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
- Abstract:
- In this article we seek to answer three interrelated questions: First, how do Islamic, national and democratic forces in the Arab world perceive the Justice and Development Party (AKP)? Is it an Islamic or a secular movement? Second, how do Arab political elites perceive the party's foreign policy, especially its relationship with Israel, America and the European Union? In this regard, we specifically explore how they perceive the AKP's political role in mediating indirectly the Syrian-Israeli dialogue, and its attempts to mediate between the US and Iran. Third, what are the prospects for the realization of the AKP's political project? Is it likely that the AKP will succeed in transforming Turkey into an "economic tiger," profiting from the existing strategy of positive relationships with America, Israel and Europe?
- Topic:
- Development
- Political Geography:
- United States, America, Europe, Iran, Turkey, Israel, and Arabia
1407. Al-Qa`ida's Five Aspects of Power
- Author:
- Erich Marquardt
- Publication Date:
- 01-2009
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- CTC Sentinel
- Institution:
- The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
- Abstract:
- Seven and a half years after 9/11, the global community faces a resilient and dangerous al- Qa'ida. Despite immense efforts to understand al-Qa'ida, informed analysts disagree widely over its actual strength. Some consider the group a visceral and literal threat to Western civilization. Others proclaim the organization is irrelevant given the isolation of its senior leaders in Pakistan's Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). Finally, some point to al-Qa'ida's failure to prosecute meaningful attacks in the United States since 9/11, and the absence of successful large attacks in the West since the London bombings in 2005, as evidence of the organization's decline.
- Political Geography:
- Africa, United States, Iran, and London
1408. Engaging Syria? U.S. Constraints and Opportunities
- Publication Date:
- 02-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Candidate Obama pledged that his Middle East policy would include re-engagement with Syria; President Obama will find that the past is not easily overcome. The reasons behind his vow remain pertinent. Syria holds important cards in Lebanon, Iraq and Palestine, is Iran's most important Arab ally and has substantial influence over Hamas and Hizbollah. There are indications of potential common ground on which to build, from resuming Israeli-Syrian negotiations, to consolidating progress in Iraq to blunting the rise of jihadi militancy and sectarianism. But significant obstacles to healthy, mutually beneficial relations remain, along with a legacy of estrangement and distrust. They dictate the need for a prudent approach that seeks first to rebuild ties and restore confidence. It will be critical to reassure Damascus that the U.S. is interested in improving relations and resolving the Israeli-Arab conflict, not in regime change. It is also equally critical not to compromise on core principles such as Lebanon's sovereignty or the integrity of the international tribunal investigating the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Foreign Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Iran, Middle East, Arabia, and Syria
1409. "Power without Influence: The Bush Administration's Foreign Policy Failure in the Middle East"
- Author:
- Jeremy Pressman
- Publication Date:
- 04-2009
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- International Security
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- The administration of President George W. Bush was deeply involved in the Middle East, but its efforts did not advance U.S. national security. In the realms of counterterrorism, democracy promotion, and nonconventional proliferation, the Bush administration failed to achieve its objectives. Although the United States did not suffer a second direct attack after September 11, 2001, the terrorism situation worsened as many other countries came under attack and a new generation of terrorists trained in Iraq. Large regional powers such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia did not become more democratic, with no new leaders subject to popular mandate. The model used in Iraq of democratization by military force is risky, costly, and not replicable. Bush's policy exacerbated the problem of nuclear proliferation, expending tremendous resources on a nonexistent program in Iraq while bolstering Iran's geopolitical position. The administration failed because it relied too heavily on military force and too little on diplomacy, disregarded empiricism, and did not address long-standing policy contradictions. The case of the Bush administration makes clear that material power does not automatically translate into international influence.
- Topic:
- Security and Foreign Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Iran, Middle East, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt
1410. Beyond Iraq: A New U.S. Strategy for the Middle East
- Author:
- Richard N. Haass and Martin Indyk
- Publication Date:
- 01-2009
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Foreign Affairs
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- To be successful in the Middle East, the Obama administration will need to move beyond Iraq, find ways to deal constructively with Iran, and forge a final-status Israeli-Palestinian agreement.
- Topic:
- Government and Islam
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine