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1032. GEOGRAPHY AND MARITIME POTENTIAL OF CHINA AND IRAN
- Author:
- Sören Schlovin and Alexandr Burilkov
- Publication Date:
- 03-2013
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
- Institution:
- Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
- Abstract:
- In recent years, developments in Chinese and Iranian foreign policy have been a constant in discussions in the West, particularly in the United States. It is a haphazard process but the Chinese continue to modernize and expand their forces and strategic reach. In the meantime, Iranian political and military leaders are fond of reminding the world of their thousands of missiles that are supposedly but a push of a button away. Outlandish projects aside, when it comes to strictly maritime matters it becomes possible to see that each state has a certain maritime potential, meaning the ability to leverage the near and far seas so as to achieve its objectives at some point in the near future. We seek to show how this potential is influenced by geography.
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and Iran
1033. Crisis Stability and Nuclear Exchange Risks on the Subcontinent: Major Trends and the Iran Factor
- Author:
- Thomas F. Lynch III
- Publication Date:
- 11-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- Crisis stability—the probability that political tensions and low-level conflict will not erupt into a major war between India and Pakistan—is less certain in 2013 than at any time since their sequential nuclear weapons tests of 1998. India's vast and growing spending on large conventional military forces, at least in part as a means to dissuade Pakistan's tolerance of (or support for) insurgent and terrorist activity against India, coupled with Pakistan's post-2006 accelerated pursuit of tactical nuclear weapons as a means to offset this Indian initiative, have greatly increased the risk of a future Indo-Pakistani military clash or terrorist incident escalating to nuclear exchange. America's limited abilities to prevent the escalation of an Indo-Pakistani crisis toward major war are best served by continuing a significant military and political presence in Afghanistan and diplomatic and military-to-military dialogue with Pakistan well beyond 2014.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, America, Iran, India, and Asia
1034. Iranian Naval and Maritime Strategy
- Author:
- Christopher Harmer
- Publication Date:
- 06-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of War
- Abstract:
- The Iranian regime has among its strategic objectives expanding its power in the Middle East and rolling back U.S. influence in the region. Iranian leadership considers the Persian Gulf and much of Central Asia to be a "near abroad" where Iranian culture and interests should have significant influence. Recent developments confirm that Iran is committed to this ambition, has a strategy to realize this outcome, and is making significant progress towards it. Iran also clearly has ambitions to be a significant and relevant actor on the global stage, whose capabilities and intentions must be taken into consideration by superpower nations.
- Topic:
- Military Strategy and Hegemony
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iran, Central Asia, and Middle East
1035. Has Kuwait reached the sectarian tipping point?
- Author:
- Michael Rubin
- Publication Date:
- 08-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
- Abstract:
- Kuwait is perhaps America's closest Arab ally; it remains the only country in the Middle East on whose behalf the United States went to war. Although the Islamic Republic of Iran has at times tried to leverage Kuwait's large Shi'ite minority against the Kuwaiti state, it has mostly been unsuccessful. Indeed, Kuwait's Shi'ite community has repeatedly worked to prove its loyalty to Kuwait. Recent political instability, however, is again opening the door for sectarian forces to undermine Kuwait and, by extension, an important pillar of US defense strategy.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Defense Policy, Islam, Bilateral Relations, and Sectarian violence
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iran, Middle East, and Arabia
1036. A Single Roll of the Dice: Obama's Diplomacy with Iran
- Author:
- Brent E. Sasley
- Publication Date:
- 04-2013
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Political Science Quarterly
- Institution:
- Academy of Political Science
- Abstract:
- A Single Roll of the Dice: Obama's Diplomacy with Iran, Trita Parsi
- Political Geography:
- Iran
1037. THE GULF MILITARY BALANCE Volume II: The Missile and Nuclear Dimensions
- Author:
- Anthony H. Cordesman and Bryan Gold
- Publication Date:
- 05-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
- Abstract:
- The report shows that Iran's current missile and rocket forces help compensate for its lack of effective air power and allow it to pose a threat to its neighbors and US forces that could affect their willingness to strike on Iran if Iran uses its capabilities for asymmetric warfare in the Gulf or against any of its neighbors. At another level, Iran's steady increase in the number, range, and capability of its rocket and missile forces has increased the level of tension in the Gulf, and in other regional states like Turkey, Jordan, and Israel. Iran has also shown that it will transfer long-range rockets to “friendly” or “proxy” forces like the Hezbollah and Hamas. At a far more threatening level, Iran has acquired virtually every element of a nuclear breakout capability except the fissile material needed to make a weapon. This threat has already led to a growing “war of sanctions,” and Israeli and US threats of preventive strikes. At the same time, the threat posed by Iran's nuclear programs cannot be separated from the threat posed by Iran's growing capabilities for asymmetric warfare in the Gulf and along all of its borders. It is far from clear that negotiations and sanctions can succeed in limiting Iran's ability to acquire nuclear weapons and deploy nuclear-armed missiles. At the same time, the report shows that military options offer uncertain alternatives. Both Israel and the US have repeatedly stated that they are planning and ready for military options that could include preventive strikes on at least Iran's nuclear facilities and, and that US strikes might cover a much wider range of missile facilities and other targets. A preventive war might trigger a direct military confrontation or conflict in the Gulf with little warning. It might also lead to at least symbolic Iranian missile strikes on US basing facilities, GCC targets or Israel. At the same time, it could lead to much more serious covert and proxy operations in Lebanon, Iraq, Afghanistan, the rest of the Gulf, and other areas.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, and War
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iran, and Middle East
1038. Inherent Governmental Functions and Areas of Further Security Privatization in the Czech Republic
- Author:
- Oldřich Bureš
- Publication Date:
- 06-2013
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Abstract:
- This study analyzes the limits and further areas of possible privatization of security in the Czech Republic in the context of a growing number of private security companies (PSCs). With reference to the recent foreign studies of security privatization and interviews conducted with the owners and/or managers of PSCs operating in the Czech Republic, this study shows that the process of security privatization is not taking place somewhere outside the structures of the Czech state because the very (in)activity of its components in providing security, along with the understandable efforts of PSCs to maximize their profits by offering new services, or extending the range of the existing ones, represents one of its key determinants. By outlining possible further areas as well as limits of security privatization in the Czech Republic, this study has the ambition to be the basis for not only an academic, but also a political debate about the ways of ensuring the safety of the citizens of the Czech Republic in the foreseeable future.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Europe, Iran, Middle East, Asia, France, and Arabia
1039. The role of French private military companies in the security privatization sector: Specific features of the French approach and a comparison with Anglo-Saxon private military companies
- Author:
- Zdeněk Ludvík
- Publication Date:
- 06-2013
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Abstract:
- The realm of privatization of security and the consequent existence of private military companies is an important constitutive element of security with regard to international relations. This phenomenon is most strongly developed in the Anglo-Saxon world. However, in the case of the French Republic, we can observe significant developmental and functional disparities. This paper examines externalization processes in the context of the French approach to the legitimacy, legality and territoriality of the privatization of security functions of the state and explains the different causes of their development. It discusses the main aspects of externalization, defines the typical activities of French private military companies, describes their strengths and weaknesses and outlines the problems and possible solutions that lie before the French, which cannot be ignored in the future. Finally, this paper describes the most important French private military companies and their characteristics.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, NATO, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Europe, Iran, Middle East, Asia, France, and Arabia
1040. Strategy of Deterrence and Terrorism: Challenges and Opportunities
- Author:
- Linda Janků and Petr Suchý
- Publication Date:
- 06-2013
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Abstract:
- The article deals with deterrence of terrorism. The aim is to assess validity of a proposition that it is possible to deter terrorist groups, but there are some specifics in comparison to the deterrence of states. First, we determine deterrence threats which can be applied in relation to terrorist groups and discuss possible restraints of their application in practice. This is followed by an analysis of whether deterrence can be applied against all types of terrorist groups without distinction, where we develop a model of classification of terrorist groups according to the goals which they pursue. So far, the topic of deterrence of terrorism has not been discussed in detail in the Czech academic texts. This article thus seeks to fill this lacuna and highlight the benefits of applying deterrence strategy to the terrorist groups.
- Topic:
- NATO, Terrorism, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Europe, Iran, Middle East, Asia, France, and Arabia