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1. Protests in Iran in comparative perspective: A revolutionary state in trouble

Author:
Erwin van Veen and Hamidreza Azizi
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
Successive protests in 2009, 2019 and 2022 have poignantly laid bare the much reduced social and political legitimacy of Iran’s ruling elites. Reform-from-within is no longer viewed as credible. Even former pro-reform leaders like Mousavi have abandoned hope and call for regime change. While further protests are inevitable, it is nevertheless unlikely that they will produce a revolution that overthrows the regime in the short-term, as long as their national organisation and leadership remain weak, Iran’s ruling elites cohesive, security forces loyal, and the administration continues to function. The country has witnessed hundreds of protests every year for the past few years, in addition to those of 2009, 2019 and 2022, but calls for fundamental change continue to go unheeded. The hope of the ruling elite is that the mix of repression and Iran’s dire economic situation will prevent protests from recurring. At best, quasi-reforms will provide some band-aids. In both scenarios, the Islamic Republic of Iran is no more in the sense that it lacks legitimacy among large segments of the population. It has also shed the elements of republican governance it used to have. And yet it lives on because it remains a capable state with a fairly cohesive ruling elite and ample coercive power. Iran is on course to become a classic one-party authoritarian regime, which may shed some of its religious orientations once its Supreme Leader leaves office for reasons of age. It remains to be seen how sustainable this will be given the crescendo of protests.
Topic:
Security, Economy, Domestic Politics, Protests, and Civil Unrest
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

2. Rethinking the EU’s Approach to Women’s Rights in Iran

Author:
Barbara Mittelhammer, Tara Sepehri Far, and Sussan Tahmasebi
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
After the death of twenty-two-year-old Mahsa (Jina) Amini in the custody of Iran’s morality police on September 16, 2022, protests quickly spread throughout the country under the slogan of “Woman, Life, Freedom.” Amini’s death galvanized a movement that connects women’s individual freedom to choose their dress code to the systemic social, political, and economic grievances of a larger population that is demanding fundamental change. In claiming the realization of their basic rights, Iranians are revolting against a system that not only oppresses women and peaceful dissent but also continues to fail to meet citizens’ needs. This fight, which has attracted global solidarity, highlights the core message that when women’s rights are marginalized to nonexistence, human rights for all are at risk. The protests have taken place amid mounting repression of organized peaceful activism, a continuing deterioration of Iranians’ basic rights, and a host of economic ills, including rising inequality, increasing poverty, worsening living conditions, skyrocketing food prices, raging inflation, and rising unemployment. Three years of the coronavirus pandemic as well as decades-long comprehensive economic and financial sanctions have gravely added to the socioeconomic calamity. On top of this economic insecurity, precarious and perilous working conditions had already sparked increasing protests in Iran in recent years, resulting in the government’s harsh crackdown on human rights activists and civil society as well as further infringements on rights, including internet shutdowns, even before current events. Repression and the deterioration of Iran’s socioeconomic conditions have aggravated the situation for women in particular. Especially in recent years leading up to the current protests, this trend has hindered Iranian women’s ability to mobilize, protest, and achieve the full realization of their rights. Those who experience intersecting discrimination because of their minority background or social status are impacted even more if they live in rural areas, which are less developed than urban ones, or in areas on Iran’s border, which the state views predominantly through a security lens. The international response to Iran’s very poor human rights record and current protests, however, has lacked a holistic approach that considers women’s key role as agents of change and encompasses civil and political as well as social and economic rights as integral components of women’s rights. In fact, women’s rights and gender equality are not only goals in themselves but also enable the realization of fundamental rights of other marginalized groups, such as children and minorities. Moreover, women’s rights and gender equality are the strongest indicators of and preconditions for sustainable and peaceful societies, both internally and externally. Yet, the European Union’s (EU’s) current approach to Iran does not account for this reality. Over the past years, the EU’s policy toward the country has focused on negotiations to revive the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) after Washington’s withdrawal from the deal in 2018. The current situation in Iran urgently highlights the need for a policy framework that responds to the government’s repression and gross human rights violations and, equally, considers the disastrous socioeconomic situation in the country, which is a key obstacle to the public’s ability to organize to realize its rights. Given the importance of economic precarity and socioeconomic inequality in the current revolt, the EU should adopt policies that can support the protesters’ rights and demands in the short term while considering a revised long-term approach centered on empowering Iranians in their efforts to create long-lasting democratic change.
Topic:
Human Rights, European Union, Women, and Protests
Political Geography:
Europe, Iran, and Middle East

3. Anti-Government Demonstrations in Iran: A Long-Term Challenge for the Islamic Republic

Author:
Dana Sammy
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
Iran was rocked by mass demonstrations triggered by the September 2022 death of Mahsa Amini — a young Kurdish woman — while in the custody of the Guidance Patrol (also known as the ‘morality police’) for allegedly violating the hijab dress code. Protests over the mandatory hijab rule soon coalesced around a wide range of grievances with the regime, with participants demanding protections for civil, political, and human rights and calling for an end to the Islamic Republic. Although street demonstrations have subsided for the time being, how the protest movement will evolve — and how it will impact the stability of the Islamic Republic — remains an open question. This report explores potential answers to this question by examining notable trends and implications of the wave of demonstrations that unfolded in the country between September and December 2022. It argues that several emerging aspects of the nationwide movement may pose a long-term challenge to the regime. The demonstrations following Amini’s death were not only unique in regard to their geographical spread and longevity, but also in the way they brought together different segments of society with both distinct and overlapping grievances. Moreover, amid a harsh crackdown by Iranian authorities, engagement in violence by demonstrators has trended upward: between mid-September and December 2022, ACLED records the highest number of violent demonstration events for any round of nationwide demonstrations in Iran since the beginning of data collection in 2016. The increased use of Molotov cocktails and the killing of dozens of security personnel are among the most significant trends in demonstration violence observed in the latest round of events. The demonstrations did not reach a critical mass necessary to pose an immediate threat to the survival of the regime. Yet, this latest round in a sequence of increasingly violent demonstrations is indicative of growing resentment in Iranian society against the ruling elites and a willingness to express it forcefully despite severe repression. As the regime refuses to reform, the growing frequency and intensity of demonstrations suggests that the government will find itself in an increasingly unstable domestic position and increasingly isolated in the international arena.
Topic:
Government, Human Rights, Women, State Violence, and Protests
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

4. Gender Apartheid in Iran: Foreign Policy Responses

Author:
Jacqui True and Alison Ross
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Women's Development Agency (IWDA)
Abstract:
One year after the “Women, Life, Liberty” protests in Iran following the death in custody of Mahsa Amini, Iranian women’s rights activists and international human rights experts have united to denounce the brutal Islamic Republic and call for the international recognition of “gender apartheid”. Countries with values-based foreign policy – including feminist foreign policy - that aims to promote human rights and gender equality can and should support this call, in alliance with like-minded countries. “We must constantly keep our goal in sight. Our path to freedom will necessarily lead to the removal of the Islamic Republic and the elimination of political Islam from the (sphere of) governance” – Bahareh Hedayat1 In September 2022 an unprecedented, nationwide uprising in Iran began following the extrajudicial killing in detention of 22-year-old Mahsa Jina Amini, who was arrested for not wearing her hijab “properly.” The national uprising prompted the first Middle Eastern revolutionary movement led by women and motivated by women’s demands for fundamental human rights. The slogan of the movement highlighted that women’s emancipation is the basis for democracy in Iran and the toppling of Islamic fundamentalism in the region: “Zan, Zendegi, Azadi / Women, Life, Freedom!” Global public opinion and media rallied behind the uprising. The movement has its roots in women’s protests in Tehran against the compulsory hijab immediately after the establishment of the Islamic Republic (IR) in 1979. Iranian women have realized that their dignity and rights are irreconcilable with the IR. Young women mobilized the entire society – people of all ages, groups and regions and restored their courage to stand up to their oppressors. The shooting of more than 500 peaceful protesters on the streets, including 70 children in response to the movement, exposed the true nature of the extremist Islamic regime.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Apartheid, Human Rights, Women, Protests, and Gender
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

5. Iran and its Discontents: Revolutionary Women and Minorities in 2022

Author:
Pouya Alimagham and Ciara Moezidis
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
On September 16, 2022, the death of Mahsa Jina Amini ignited protests across Iran under the banner of “woman, life, freedom.” Initially, Amini was arrested for violating the mandatory dress code in which women are legally required to cover their hair. She died in government custody, leading her family and countless Iranians to allege that she was beaten.[1] What became known as the “hijab protests” quickly morphed to encompass wider social and political demands, including calls for the wholesale overthrow of the system that routinely intrudes into the daily lives of Iranians. For months after her death, segments of Iranian society leveled ideological attacks against the government to delegitimize Iran’s polity as a whole. That is, they did not merely demand that the perpetrators of Amini’s death be brought to justice but held the entire system responsible. Activists have been met with government repression, including internet blackouts, a dragnet that has ensnared approximately 20,000 people, and the death of 522 people, of whom 70 were children.[2] An additional 110 face execution.[3] 61 security personnel have also been killed in clashes with protesters.[4] Despite the crackdown, protesters have demonstrated such totalizing opposition in numerous ways, most notably by wielding the hijab–the Islamic veil–in counterintuitive ways that subverted the state.
Topic:
Social Movement, Minorities, Women, and Protests
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

6. Additional Losses: Examining the severity of the protests' impact on Iran's economy

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
Widespread protests broke out across Iran after the death of Mahsa Amini in a hospital in Tehran in September 2022 while in the custody of the country's morality police. While the current protests differ from previous protests in that protestors demanded women's rights be respected. Later, the protests spread, and the protesters demanded regime change. Yet, the economy's deterioration is one of the main drivers of the spread of the angry protests. As social unrest is likely to further exacerbate across Iran, the protests are likely to incur financial and trade losses, further complicating the economic situation.
Topic:
Economy, Domestic Politics, Protests, Inflation, and Civil Unrest
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

7. Iran Protests: Limitations of foreign support to protests

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
National Council of Resistance of Iran has said more than 400 Iranians have been killed and over 20,000 arrested since the breakout of nation-wide protests in Iran. Popular unrests and violence have been sparked by the death of Mahsa Amini, three days after she was being detained by ‘morality police’ for claims of violating hijab laws.
Topic:
Domestic Politics, Protests, Foreign Interference, and Civil Unrest
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

8. How Iran’s Protests Differ from Past Movements

Author:
Mehdi Khalaji
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The unrest has shown that many young people are not only rejecting the regime, but also steering away from long-time actors such as the clergy, reformers, and dissident politicians inside and outside the country. Since erupting on September 16, Iran’s latest wave of street protests has begun to pose a serious security and political challenge to the Islamic Republic, placing regime leaders in a uniquely puzzling situation. Interestingly, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has not commented on the turmoil, which was ignited by the torture and death of a young woman, Mahsa Amini, at the hands of the regime’s morality police (Gasht-e Ershad, or Guidance Patrol), reportedly for disrespecting regulations on wearing a hijab. Yet he and his circle are no doubt concerned about the movement’s novel aspects. Anti-regime protests are nothing new in the Islamic Republic. The largest one was sparked by massive fraud in the 2009 presidential election, bringing millions of people to the street until authorities cracked down on the movement’s leaders, Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karrubi (Mousavi is still under house arrest to this day). The most recent round of widespread protests took place in 2019, after the government’s sudden decision to raise gasoline prices. At the time, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and police forces killed more than 1,500 people, a shocking record even by the regime’s brutal standards.
Topic:
Social Movement, Reform, Democracy, and Protests
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

9. The Tenacity of Young Iranians in the Protest Movement

Author:
Haleh Esfandiari
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Despite the regime's crackdown, Iranian protestors are showing unprecedented resilience and unity in their demands, making the international community's next steps even more crucial. Once again, Iranians have come out into the streets to protest against their government, its policies, and its leaders. Once again they face a regime that has proved itself tone-deaf to widespread public discontent—responding instead with brutality, arrests, mass trials, and executions. But this recent wave of protests has proved different. The regime is being confronted by its own children—a generation of young women and men who seek not just reform, not just an easing of controls, but a regime change. The protest movement was triggered when 22-year old Mahsa Amini died while in police custody, beaten to death by the morality police on September 16 because the form of her hijab was not to their liking. Protests quickly erupted immediately after her death, and they are now in their third month.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Reform, Democracy, Economy, Youth, and Protests
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and United States of America

10. Iran’s Protests 3 Months On

Author:
Alistair Taylor and Alex Vatanka
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
Now entering their fourth month of defiance, the people of Iran continue to protest the regime of Ali Khamenei. Since protests began in September, the crackdown by security forces has become increasingly severe and the government has now begun executing protesters. According to figures from the Human Rights Activists News Agency, as of Dec. 15, nearly 500 protesters have been killed and almost 20,000 people have been arrested. Despite the risks, Iran's astonishingly brave protesters continue to call for the fall of the regime. For an update on the situation and an eye towards the future, host Alistair Taylor turns to Alex Vatanka, founding Director of the Iran Program at the Middle East Institute.
Topic:
Human Rights, Social Movement, and Protests
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East