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51. What African producers of critical minerals can learn from Indonesia’s experience

Author:
Bradford Simmons
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
With its success in nickel production, Indonesia has become a model for those seeking to harness “resource nationalism” for domestic benefit. Substantial foreign investment, particularly from China, has been a key variable for Indonesia to become a globally relevant industrial center for nickel processing. While there are insightful lessons that policymakers from mineral-resource-rich African countries can learn from Indonesia, there must be caution in implementing some of Indonesia’s policies, especially export bans as they have had mixed results and depend heavily on external factors. Africa holds a third of the world’s mineral reserves, including critical minerals essential to the green energy transition. Yet, the continent remains underexplored, underdeveloped, and underfunded, receiving just 8–10% of global exploration and investment. Global demand for minerals like copper, nickel, cobalt, and lithium is expected to generate $16 trillion over the next 25 years, with sub-Saharan Africa potentially capturing $2 trillion. However, to realize this potential, Africa must shift from raw extraction to value-added processing. Developing local processing industries would boost economic diversification, job creation, tax revenues, and technological advancements while reducing dependency on raw-material exports. To achieve this, African governments must prioritize coherent, forward-looking policies that emphasize value creation. Commissioning technoeconomic studies to identify key supply chain opportunities will help guide investments. Establishing Special Economic Zones for critical minerals can attract international investors and foster industrial hubs. Leveraging the African Continental Free Trade Area to create robust commodity markets would position Africa as a competitive player. Additionally, streamlining regulatory processes, supporting carbon-free power projects, and advancing infrastructure investments through global initiatives such as the US PGI and EU Global Gateway can facilitate critical mineral processing and transport networks. Export bans, though well-intentioned, often backfire. Historically, they have reduced exports, weakened global trade positions, and worsened infrastructure challenges in energy, transportation, and logistics. Without effective governance and political stability, such policies risk stalling economic growth rather than stimulating it. By focusing on industrial infrastructure, value-added processing, and policies that promote long-term diversification, African countries can move beyond the limitations of raw extraction. With transparent governance and strategic investments, the continent can transform its mineral wealth into a driver of sustainable economic development.
Topic:
Environment, Energy Transition, Critical Minerals, and International Markets
Political Geography:
Africa, Indonesia, Southeast Asia, and Indo-Pacific

52. The case for an Indo-Pacific Economic Resilience Bank

Author:
Michelle Lyons, Roland Rajah, and Grace Stanhope
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
The world faces a triple crisis of economic insecurity, climate change, and stalled development, but there are deep tensions between the policy agendas being deployed to address them. We propose a new Indo-Pacific multilateral bank that can turn these tensions into complementarities. The bank can accelerate clean energy funding by mobilising new public and private capital investments, primarily for projects in the Indo-Pacific’s developing economies. And it can create multilateral economic security by diversifying green supply chains to dilute the current excessive dependence on China. The bank would create benefits for both developing and advanced economies, fostering new industries and diversified, resilient markets while helping build the multilateral cooperation and capabilities needed to construct a more secure and sustainable world.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, Banking, Supply Chains, Economic Security, Energy, and Green Transition
Political Geography:
Indo-Pacific

53. The EU Indo-Pacific Bid: Sailing Through Economic and Security Competition

Author:
Filippo Fasulo
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:
Over the past five years, the Indo-Pacific region's importance for Europe has grown significantly. However, the launch of the EU Strategy for cooperation in the Indo-Pacific in September 2021 and its subsequent implementation have been affected by growing polarisation between the US and China, and by a fast-changing scenario caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This Report examines the state and perspectives of the EU's Indo-Pacific strategy, 18 months after its launch. Are there avenues for cooperation with regional military initiatives, such as the QUAD? How is the economic landscape changing, in particular after the start of negotiations for the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF)? What are the main strategies of Indo-Pacific countries for the green transition? And how do the US, China, and ASEAN countries view and act in the Indo-Pacific region?
Topic:
Security, International Cooperation, Economy, Strategic Competition, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

54. Expanding International Cooperation against Corruption in the Indo-Pacific

Author:
Sook-Jong Lee
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
In light of the Indo-Pacific regional meeting of the 2nd Summit for Democracy (S4D2) (hosted by South Korea) choosing to discuss matters on corruption, Dr. Sook Jong Lee, a Professor at Sungkyunkwan University and a Senior Fellow at EAI, evaluates the state of corruption within the region. Despite persistent and wide-spread efforts to tackle the malignant effects of corruption, Dr. Lee points out that progress has been slow, especially due to the dominance of grand corruption and preserving independence for anti-corruption institutions. Lee concludes by suggesting that, with the Summit as a launch pad, leaders should look into the creation of a network of anti-corruption bodies to boost international cooperation, capacity building, and promoting independence.
Topic:
Corruption, International Cooperation, United Nations, and Democracy
Political Geography:
Indo-Pacific

55. Strengthening Regional Supply Chain Resiliency Through the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF)

Author:
Han-Koo Yeo and Wendy Cutler
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
In recent years, supply chain disruptions have become commonplace, resulting in governments and businesses rethinking long-held strategies, such as “cost and efficiency,” “just-in-time,” and “offshoring.” Facing shortages of products ranging from personal protective equipment (PPE) to automotive semiconductors, governments have had to mobilize quickly to deal with crises, often cobbling together a series of temporary and ad hoc measures. However, it has become clear that no country can prevent or cope with these disruptions alone. A collective approach, especially among like-minded countries, can greatly enhance supply chain resiliency and security. The Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF)1 is one of the most promising international economic negotiations for addressing supply chain issues. Launched by the Biden administration in May 2022, IPEF is a blueprint for U.S. economic engagement in the region with 14 partners representing 40% of global GDP. Of its four pillars, the Supply Chain Pillar has attracted considerable attention. In many ways, this area is a clean slate, paving the way for creative thinking on rules and cooperation mechanisms to minimize disruptions. IPEF negotiators are making meaningful progress on their supply chain work, with early harvest agreements possibly being announced in late May this year, around the time of the APEC Ministers Responsible for Trade (MRT) meeting in Detroit, Michigan. With this in mind, we recommend a series of proposals to strengthen and expand the work of IPEF, both on a sector-wide basis and on critical minerals and materials, which could serve as a pilot for work in other sectors. We recommend important elements that should be included in an “early warning system” and “crisis response mechanism” to make these tools as robust and impactful as possible. We also suggest that IPEF members agree to World Trade Organization plus rules to deter the imposition of export restrictions and facilitate customs processing and essential cross-border movement of products and people during times of supply chain shortage. Finally, we underscore the benefits of supply chain connectivity and co-investment opportunities that can be generated through work in this pillar, especially for the developing country members of IPEF. Regarding critical minerals and materials, we offer several recommendations to cooperate on supply chain mapping, as well as streamlining and harmonizing regulations and standards. Furthermore, we suggest developing a “swap system” to be drawn from the financial “currency swap” mechanisms as a collective response that encourages countries to share their stockpiles during times of severe supply crises. Finally, we propose that Washington negotiate critical minerals and materials agreements similar to the one recently signed with Japan to make other IPEF members eligible for electric vehicle tax credits under the Inflation Reduction Act. Our recommended policy proposals will take time to implement and could be taken up in phases. For 2023, we propose focusing on sector-wide outcomes and starting work on critical minerals and materials, which could continue into 2024. Next year would also be an opportune time to build on the cooperation mechanisms to make them more beneficial and relevant. It may also be worthwhile to consider a market access component to this effort. The IPEF Supply Chain Pillar provides a promising opportunity for the United States and its regional partners to set a new course in reshaping more resilient and secure supply chain networks.
Topic:
Economy, Resilience, COVID-19, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:
Indo-Pacific

56. China, climate and conflict in the Indo-Pacific

Author:
Anastasia Kapetas
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
This paper surveys the current reporting and analysis on climate and security to explore the implications that climate change may have for China’s ability to prosecute its security goals in the region’s three major hotspots: the SCS, Taiwan and the India–China border conflict. Those three hotspots all involve longstanding border and territorial disputes between China and other nations and may draw in various levels of US involvement should China continue to escalate tensions.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, and Conflict
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and Indo-Pacific

57. Why Gender Balance Matters for Equity and Peace in the Indo-Pacific

Author:
Maryruth Belsey Priebe
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Pacific Forum
Abstract:
Who shows up at events and conferences matters. Public and closed-door events are where successes and failures are analyzed; where conceptions about security, what it means, and how we can achieve it bump up against one another; and where problems are solved in novel ways. The greater the diversity of perspectives, the more powerful the outcomes. But within the security sector, predominantly all-male panels—or “manels”—suggest a lack of gender diversity, resulting in the exclusion of women, people of non-binary identities, or both. Manels represent a more serious lack of gender inclusion at leadership levels, making it difficult for women to gain recognition through promotion to senior decision-making positions. The following is a discussion of Pacific Forum’s work to study more than nine years of programming with a goal of understanding historical trends in order to implement and measure policies to increase the number of women attending and speaking at Pacific Forum events. The analysis identified room for improvement, and marks a jumping-off point for Pacific Forum’s work on mainstreaming gender within institutional programming.
Topic:
Security, Women, Peace, Equity, and Gender
Political Geography:
Indo-Pacific

58. Digital China: The Strategy and Its Geopolitical Implications

Author:
David Dorman and John Hemmings
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Pacific Forum
Abstract:
Over the past few years, there has been growing concern inside the United States, Europe, and in the Indo-Pacific on the strategic direction behind China’s technology policies. Beginning with the debate over 5G and Huawei, this debate has covered Artificial Intelligence (AI), quantum teachnology, and semi-conductors – a foundational technology. And despite a large number of policies in place – Made in China: 2025, Cyber Super Power, and the New Generation AI Development Plan – few in the West have known China’s overall digital grand strategy. In the first installment of a three-part research project, Dr. Dorman and Dr. Hemmings lay out the rise of China’s overall digital grand strategy, Xi’s role in it, and how it has been organized to fulfil Party objectives. The report tracks the rise of the strategy over the past 10 years, the acceleration of that rise during the Covid-19 pandemic, and the current state of the strategy. In particular, it finds Digital China has been supported and designed by General Secretary Xi Jinping himself, and is a bid to make China more competitive vis a vis the West through the digital transformation of rules, institutions, and infrastructure at the national level. Over the past few years, the strategy has risen to become the “overall” strategy for digital development in the eyes of the Chinese Communist Party leadership, bigger than the Digital Silk Road, deeper than the Belt and Road Initiative, more far reaching than 5G or AI, more important than Made in China: 2025, and wider than Cyber Great Power. A renewed Digital China seeks to challenge a hegemonic global system anchored to a previous age. A successful Digital China has profound implications for China’s developmental path, great power competition, and for the norms that will undergird the international system for decades to come. The Party leadership has re-written Marxist economic theory in its bid to incorporate “data” as the basis of its digital economy and in order to foster a Chinese “Digital Marxism”. Digital China seeks to whet the “sharp weapon” of innovation to facilitate its great power rise and challenge to the West. Beijing is testing whether innovative thinking can be created through the digital transformation of tools, talent, and learning. The US and its allies have begun to effect strategic counter-effect to the myriad of PRC technology policies, there is almost zero understanding or public discussion of this digital grand strategy. Whether inattention, mistranslation, or obfuscation, Digital China has been mostly missed by the West over the past decade.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, Innovation, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and Indo-Pacific

59. Strategic Competition and Security Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific

Author:
Carl W Baker
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Pacific Forum
Abstract:
There is a growing acceptance among countries in the Indo-Pacific region that strategic competition between the United States and China is changing perceptions about security and the adequacy of the existing security architecture. While some have characterized the competition between the two as a new Cold War, it is clear that what is happening in the region is far more complex than the competition that characterized the original Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union. First, the economic integration that has taken place since the early 1990s makes it much more difficult to draw bright ideological lines between the two sides. Further, the Asian context of the emerging competition is one where the two competitors have grown to share power. As the dominant military power, the United States has been the primary security guarantor in Asia and beyond. China, on the other hand, has emerged over the past decades as the primary economic catalyst in Asia and beyond. Currently, each side seems increasingly unwilling to accept that arrangement.
Topic:
Security, International Cooperation, Strategic Interests, and Competition
Political Geography:
China, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

60. A History of Shared Values, A Future of Shared Strategic Interests: US-Australia Relations in the Indo-Pacific

Author:
Rob York, Craig Kafura, Rick Umback, Rose Rodgers, and Thom Dixon
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Pacific Forum
Abstract:
The United States and Australia have been treaty allies for more than 70 years. This bond endured throughout the Cold War and the War on Terror, and it increasingly looks as though they will be close partners throughout the great power competition with the People’s Republic of China. The two partner countries were among the earliest critics of the PRC’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, have shared concerns over Chinese investment and its impact on their national security, and what growing PRC influence means for them the future of democracy in the Indo-Pacific. The two countries were early and enthusiastic members of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, which includes fellow Indo-Pacific democracies Japan and India, and which has moved to address pressing regional challenges such as pandemic response and climate change. Plus, with 2021’s announcement of the Australia-UK-US (AUKUS) pact Canberra proved its willingness to defy not only Beijing, but also other democracies—especially in Europe—to build out its capacity to defend itself and counter the PRC’s growing regional power. The contributions to this volume each address the nature, not only of the alliance, but the challenges it will face in the years to come. Craig Kafula of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs notes that public polling in both countries reveals overwhelming agreement on most subjects related to the alliance and its forthcoming challenges, but also differences of opinion that will have to be navigated. Rick Umback of Australian National University’s School of Politics and International Relations examines the growth of PRC influence over local governments and Australia, and the ramifications this has for other liberal democracies in the Indo-Pacific. Rose Rodgers at the Center for Naval Analyses says the AUKUS has not limited, but actually increased the need for scrutiny of PRC investment in critical and emerging technologies, and other means of screening technological investments. Moving away from what the alliance means for relations with the PRC, Thom Dixon examines the field of cyberbiosecurity—the intersection of cybersecurity and biosecurity—and how US-Australian cooperation in this field is essential to meet two of the great challenges of this age: climate change and pandemic response. Taken together these analyses—brought to you by the next generation of American-Australian analysts—richly detail the nature of the challenges the allies face, and offer recommendations on how to meet them over the next 70 years of their partnership.
Topic:
Security, Bilateral Relations, Cybersecurity, Alliance, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
Australia, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific