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42. Japan’s Approach to the Global South
- Author:
- Tobias Harris
- Publication Date:
- 04-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
- Abstract:
- Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, in a January 2023 speech in Washington, DC, stressed that if the G7 countries and their developed-world peers neglect the “Global South”, “we will find ourselves in the minority and unable to resolve mounting policy issues.” These remarks set the stage for a major theme of Japan’s G7 presidency that year, during which Tokyo continued to highlight the importance of more “humility” to strengthen relations between the group’s members and the “Global South”. The G7 leaders’ communiqué at their May 2023 Hiroshima summit did not refer explicitly to the Global South—the United States and other nations did not necessarily share Japan’s preference for the term, which risks treating as monolithic an enormously diverse array of countries—but the document stressed the importance of addressing the needs of middle- and low-income states, including a commitment to “continued efforts to scale up official development assistance (ODA)” and to adopting “innovative financing mechanisms”. This emphasis on outreach to the developing countries assumed greater urgency following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, when they were often reluctant to support Western efforts to isolate and punish the Kremlin for its aggression. Japan’s approach to the “Global South” is not merely rhetorical. The Kishida government inherited a long-standing approach to developing nations, particularly those in Asia, that seeks to leverage Japanese ODA and public and private investment. The approach has two goals: to promote growth and strengthen economic ties with developing countries, and to foster trust and political credibility that can be translated into influence. The strategy is shaped by Japan’s national interests but seeks to address developing countries’ economic needs without drawing them into an anti-Beijing bloc. The approach has worked well in Southeast Asia, where, thanks to decades of efforts by successive governments, Japan is viewed particularly favorably. Tokyo now appears increasingly determined to pursue the same strategy in other parts of the “Global South”, including South Asia, the Pacific island states, and, to a lesser extent, Africa and Latin America. As Japan’s G7 peers seek to undertake their own initiatives to improve relations with the “Global South”, the key principles and successes of the country’s policies are worth examining.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Economics, Democracy, Business, Global South, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- Japan, Asia, and Indo-Pacific
43. Next-Generation Perspectives on Taiwan: Insights from the 2024 Taiwan-US Policy Program
- Author:
- Bonnie S. Glaser, Joshua Stone, Alicja Bachulska, Viking Bohman, and Francesca Ghiretti
- Publication Date:
- 08-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
- Abstract:
- The papers in this compendium were written by 11 members of the 2024 Taiwan-US Policy Program (TUPP) delegation: Alicja Bachulska, Viking Bohman, Francesca Ghiretti, Heather Hwalek, Leland Lazarus, Lauren Racusin, Friso Stevens, Joshua Stone, Brian Volsky, Theresa Winter, Adrienne Wu. Transatlantic attention to Taiwan has surged in recent years for several reasons. First, Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has led to increased concern in the United States and Europe that Beijing’s growing military capabilities and declining confidence in its ability to achieve peaceful reunification will soon lead the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to attempt a takeover of Taiwan by force. The cost of such a war would carry a price tag of around $10 trillion, equal to about 10% of global GDP, according to Bloomberg Economics, far higher than the economic impact of the 2008 global financial crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the war in Ukraine. The devastating impact of a Taiwan Strait conflict has provided a wake-up call for leaders in Europe who now echo the Biden administration’s warnings to PRC leader Xi Jinping to refrain from using violence to change the status quo in the Taiwan Strait. In addition, Taiwan is now a regular agenda item in the US-EU Consultations on the Indo-Pacific and the US-EU Dialogue on China. Second, intensifying US-China strategic competition has increasingly focused on technology with chips at the center. Taiwan produces more than 60% of the world’s semiconductors and more than 90% of the most advanced ones. A single company, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation (TSMC), manufactures most of those chips. Recognition of Taiwan’s dominant role in the semiconductor supply chain has provided another reason to bolster deterrence. It has also sparked interest in “friendshoring” and “onshoring” semiconductor manufacturing. TSMC plans to start production at its first fab in Arizona in 2025 and will break ground on another in Dresden at the end of 2024 with an estimated completion date of 2027. Recognizing the rising geopolitical risks and their own strategic dependencies, the United States and the EU have made building resilient supply chains a priority, especially in semiconductors. In its 2021 Indo-Pacific Strategy, Brussels explicitly committed the EU to engaging with Taiwan in creating resilient supply chains. Third, rising concern in the United States and Europe about election interference and disinformation have sparked interest in learning from Taiwan’s experience in combatting such threats. In the run-up to the January 13, 2024, presidential and legislative elections, PRC attempts to interfere in Taiwan’s politics surged to unprecedented levels through economic coercion, direct political meddling, displays of military force, and manipulation of social media. As the United States and many European countries prepare for their own national elections this year, they are engaging with experts from Taiwan to better understand PRC tactics and the tools that Taiwan successfully employed to counter PRC interference. Fourth, the United States and Europe increasingly recognize that Taiwan’s vibrant and successful democracy is under threat from an authoritarian regime. Taiwan has received high marks for protecting political rights and holding free and fair elections. Taiwan’s democratic achievements are even more impressive when set against the backdrop of a deterioration in freedom worldwide. Like other industrialized democracies, Taiwan faces a multitude of challenges that are especially difficult to address in the face of PRC efforts that prevent Taiwan’s government and its people from interacting with the world. Taiwan’s exclusion from international organizations also hampers the world’s ability to develop effective solutions to myriad problems. The Taiwan-US Policy Program (TUPP) was launched in 2017 to encourage young professionals from the United States to include Taiwan in their research and help Taipei expand its global networks. In 2022, TUPP was expanded to include young professionals from Europe in support of GMF’s mission of promoting transatlantic cooperation. TUPP enables future leaders to acquire a deeper understanding of Taiwan and its relations with the United States through meetings with officials and experts in Washington, DC, followed by a visit to Taiwan to gain first-hand exposure to its politics, culture, and history. Experiencing Taiwan influences how these future leaders approach their work and their writing. It impacts their worldview by imbuing them with an appreciation for Taiwan’s history and commitment to the principles of democracy and human rights that undergird the existing international order. It also reinforces the importance of maintaining robust bilateral relations and strengthening international support for maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. The 2024 TUPP cohort traveled to Taiwan in February for an intense week of meetings and activities. Each participant gained insights into Taiwan and its role in their respective fields. This year’s delegation comprised five Americans and five Europeans. Over time, TUPP seeks to create a body of global experts with firsthand knowledge of Taiwan who support sustaining and expanding its international ties. I am grateful to the Henry Luce Foundation, the Global Taiwan Institute, and the Taiwan Foundation for Democracy for their support of this goal. The contributions here, written by the entire 2024 TUPP delegation, underscore the importance of deeper study and understanding of Taiwan. I sincerely hope that they stimulate continued transatlantic and global interest in Taiwan and its future.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, European Union, Geopolitics, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, Taiwan, Asia, Poland, Germany, Latin America, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific
44. The Decline and Rise of Hegemonic Narratives: From Globalisation and the 'Asia-Pacific' to Geopolitics and the 'Indo-Pacific'
- Author:
- Richard Higgott
- Publication Date:
- 04-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- LSE IDEAS
- Abstract:
- Ideas and words have consequences. The 'Asia Pacific' as an economic understanding of region is giving way, some would say has given way, to the 'Indo-Pacific' as a geopolitical understanding of region. This paper explores the ideational and discursive consequences of this juxtaposition. It focuses on the shift from the theoretical and practical implications of the waning ideational hegemony of neo-liberal economics to the growing hegemony of geopolitical security concerns. It argues that just as a neo-liberal economic approach to the Asia Pacific over-hyped the success and benefits of globalisation as an absolute wealth aggregator and underplayed its negative externalities of mal-distribution and growing inequality, the privileging of the Indo-Pacific over-hypes the concept of security and underplays the effects of 'threat inflation' and the self-fulfilling possibilities of the privileging of forward leaning geo-political analysis. By way of a short case study, the paper shows how Australia’s strategic culture is now driven more by the US security coda of the Indo-Pacific rather than the economic coda of the 'Asia-Pacific'.
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, Globalization, Hegemony, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Asia-Pacific and Indo-Pacific
45. Land Power in the Littoral: An Australian Perspective
- Author:
- John Nash
- Publication Date:
- 09-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Advanced Military Studies
- Institution:
- Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
- Abstract:
- The Australian Army is coming to terms with a new strategic direction set by the 2023 Defence Strategic Review (DSR), 2024 National Defence Strategy (NDS), and the Integrated Investment Program (IIP). This article considers how the Australian Army fits into this new direction as a littoral maneuver-focused force providing long-range strike capability. It examines concepts and analyzes how the Australian Army might be used in future scenarios: what it might be required to do in the maritime environment, whether it is contributing to sea control operations, sea denial, and/or intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance (ISR). In addition, there is the maneuver component and how the Army might use the littorals of the Indo-Pacific as a maneuver space. This article seeks to generate discussion on how a modern land force might adapt to conflict and competition in the Indo-Pacific littoral.
- Topic:
- Military Strategy, Maneuver, Littoral, and Australian Defence Force
- Political Geography:
- Australia and Indo-Pacific
46. Rescuing the Unreachable: Personnel Recovery and Resupply in a Contested Environment
- Author:
- William Fensterer, Richard Jr. Marshall, Colleen Minihan, and Jason Philips
- Publication Date:
- 09-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Advanced Military Studies
- Institution:
- Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
- Abstract:
- In a potential armed conflict between the United States and the People’s Republic of China in the Indo-Pacific, sustainment of the Joint force is not assured. China’s modernized antiaccess/area-denial (A2/AD) capabilities threaten sustainment lines of communication and challenge successful joint personnel recovery operations. This article examines the Joint operating environment through the lens of a historical case study, analysis of the current operating environment, and an assessment of the future operating environment—the next fight. The authors propose large quantity artificial intelligence (AI)-capable unmanned systems and a scalable force concept able to penetrate the A2/AD and recover and resupply the Joint force. Fielding new and existing technologies, continual doctrine refinement, and tailored wargaming is necessary to find and cover the gaps in our capabilities and be prepared to win the next fight.
- Topic:
- Military Strategy, Artificial Intelligence, Logistics, Joint Force Maneuver, Expeditionary Advanced Base Operations, and Personnel Recovery
- Political Geography:
- China, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific
47. Kim Jong united How a Future North Korean ASAT Threat Makes Strange International Bedfellows and Novel Opportunity
- Author:
- Max A. Schreiber
- Publication Date:
- 03-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Advanced Military Studies
- Institution:
- Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
- Abstract:
- While North Korea does not have a formal direct ascent antisatellite (DA-ASAT) weapon, its missile technology provides some baseline technology to make one, and a DA-ASAT program furthers the ruling Kim Jong Un regime’s strategic goals. Thus, the United States should prepare for this threat now. This article argues that North Korean DA-ASAT weapon is a unique political-military challenge, in that China and Russia—traditional North Korean allies but major space-faring nations—are also threatened by this weapon because of the indiscriminate space debris it creates. This creates aligned interests between the United States, China, and Russia to stop a North Korean DA-ASAT program, and as this article asserts, the best way to do that is to cooperate in slowly advancing the North Korean space program with nonthreatening technology in return for the country abandoning DA-ASAT research.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Geopolitics, Space, Satellites, and Strategic Weapons
- Political Geography:
- Asia, North Korea, and Indo-Pacific
48. Marine Corps and Space Force Integration for a More Lethal Joint Task Force to Counter China
- Author:
- Josh Bringhurst
- Publication Date:
- 03-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Advanced Military Studies
- Institution:
- Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
- Abstract:
- The objective of this article is to highlight the unique capabilities of the Marine Corps and Space Force and how they can function as part of a Joint Task Force (JTF) operating within U.S. Indo-Pacific Command (USINDOPACOM). More importantly, it aims to discuss the need to establish a Joint force structure and package that minimizes the risk should the United States need to quickly shift from competition to a crisis or, worse, conflict with China. Determining command relationships, allocated resources, and authorities as part of a JTF structure and package will be critical to quickly transition such a force in response to a crisis or engage the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) in conflict.
- Topic:
- Space Force, Strategic Competition, Joint Operations, People's Liberation Army (PLA), US Marine Corps, and Great Powers
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific
49. Canada and Indo-Pacific cooperation: the Quadrilateral Military Dialogue (Quad)
- Author:
- Gavin Cameron
- Publication Date:
- 10-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Military and Strategic Studies
- Institution:
- Centre for Military, Security and Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- Canada has traditionally pursued a policy of limited formal engagement within the Indo-Pacific region, preferring to focus on economics rather than security, and to prioritise other regions and pre-existing commitments. As the Indo-Pacific has become a region of increasing importance to Canada, this approach has become decreasingly viable, and Canada announced a new Indo-Pacific Strategy in late 2022. The Strategy has not alleviated concerns about Canada’s full participation in the formal regional institutions. This paper explores the potential for Canada to participate in the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (the Quad), an arrangement between Australia, India, Japan, and the United States. Such participation would enable Canada to balance its increased interest in the region with a less formal or extensive institutional commitment.
- Topic:
- Security, International Cooperation, Dialogue, and Military
- Political Geography:
- Canada, North America, and Indo-Pacific
50. Trilateralism in the Wake of the 2022 Jolt Toward Bipolarity in the Indo-Pacific and World
- Author:
- Gilbert Rozman
- Publication Date:
- 06-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
- Abstract:
- Gil Rozman argues that trilateralism reached unprecedented levels in the first two decades of the 21st century. Russia, Japan, and South Korea each sought different triangular frameworks to position themselves at the pivot of great power relations in Northeast Asia and the broader Indo-Pacific region. However, Rozman contends that by 2024 trilateralism had shifted to reinforce bipolarity amidst great power competition. After describing three types of triangular frameworks, Rozman examines the transformation of trilateralism in the Indo-Pacific region from 2022 to 2024 (particularly in Northeast Asia), analyzes the challenges military security, economic security, and national identity gaps pose to trilateralism, and evaluates the potential impact of leadership on triangular relationships. The shift from what Rozman calls triangular pivots to alliance triangles in international relations is primarily driven by security concerns yet also by economic vulnerability and national identity gaps. For Korea, the US-Japan-ROK alliance triangle, which was solidified at the Camp David Summit, is at the center of triangular solidarity. Given the polarized international and regional environment, Rozman argues it is unlikely that leadership could reverse the current trend of alliance triangle consolidation in the near future.
- Topic:
- Security, Alliance, Strategic Competition, Regional Politics, and Trilateralism
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Japan, South Korea, and Indo-Pacific