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771. Democracy Facing Global Challenges: V-DEM ANNUAL DEMOCRACY REPORT 2019

Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Varieties of Democracy Institute (V-Dem)
Abstract:
This year’s Democracy Report shows that the trend of a third wave autocratization – the decline of democratic regime traits – continues and now affects 24 countries. When we weight levels of democracy by population size – because democracy is rule by the people and it matters how many of them are concerned – it emerges that almost one third of the world’s population live in countries undergoing autocratization. Yet democracy still prevails in a majority of countries in the world (99 countries, 55 percent). This section analyses the state of democracy in the world in 2018 and developments since 1972, with an emphasis on the last 10 years. Our analysis builds on the 2019 release of the V-Dem dataset.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Developing World, Democracy, and Populism
Political Geography:
United States, Turkey, Ukraine, India, and Brazil

772. India's Counterforce Temptations: Strategic Dilemmas, Doctrine, and Capabilities

Author:
Christopher Clary and Vipin Narang
Publication Date:
02-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Security
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Is India shifting to a nuclear counterforce strategy? Continued aggression by Pakistan against India, enabled by Islamabad's nuclear strategy and India's inability to counter it, has prompted the leadership in Delhi to explore more flexible preemptive counterforce options in an attempt to reestablish deterrence. Increasingly, Indian officials are advancing the logic of counterforce targeting, and they have begun to lay out exceptions to India's long-standing no-first-use policy to potentially allow for the preemptive use of nuclear weapons. Simultaneously, India has been acquiring the components that its military would need to launch counterforce strikes. These include a growing number of accurate and responsive nuclear delivery systems, an array of surveillance platforms, and sophisticated missile defenses. Executing a counterforce strike against Pakistan, however, would be exceptionally difficult. Moreover, Pakistan's response to the mere fear that India might be pursuing a counterforce option could generate a dangerous regional arms race and crisis instability. A cycle of escalation would have significant implications not only for South Asia, but also for the broader nuclear landscape if other regional powers were similarly seduced by the temptations of nuclear counterforce.
Topic:
National Security, Terrorism, International Security, Military Strategy, Military Affairs, and Counter-terrorism
Political Geography:
Pakistan, India, and Asia

773. INSTC vs. BRI: The India-China Competition Over the Port of Chabahar and Infrastructure in Asia

Author:
Syed Fazl-e Haider
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
China Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), the central component of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in South Asia, has been a source of significant attention and controversy (China Brief, January 12, 2018; China Brief, February 15). Parts of South Asia, the Middle East, Central Asia, and Europe, however, are also host to another ambitious infrastructure program: the “International North-South Transport Corridor” (INSTC), a transportation development plan first established in 2000 by Iran, Russia and India. The INSTC envisions a network to connect Indian Ocean and Persian Gulf ports and rail centers to the Caspian Sea, and then onwards through the Russian Federation to St. Petersburg and northern Europe.
Topic:
Development, International Trade and Finance, Infrastructure, and Economy
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Iran, Middle East, India, and Asia

774. China’s Future Naval Base in Cambodia and the Implications for India

Author:
John Foulkes and Howard Wang
Publication Date:
08-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
China Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Recent media reports have indicated that Cambodia signed a “secret agreement” giving the PRC use of Ream, where it may station military servicemen and warships, for 30 years (WSJ, July 22). Although Cambodian and Chinese officials vehemently deny the existence of this agreement, gaining access to Ream is broadly consistent with Chinese foreign policy. The PRC appears to be employing Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) funding to further strategic cooperation with Cambodia through the construction of potential dual-use infrastructure. Ream naval base is the latest in a network of regional security projects—including Cambodia’s Dara Sakor investment zone and Thailand’s Kra Canal—which, taken together, significantly improve Chinese power projection into the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). News of the Ream agreement raises the specter of increasing Chinese maritime militarization at a time of intense unease in Southeast Asia. Conspicuously silent in this latest controversy is India, which has significant economic and military interests in Southeast Asia. This article will discuss the security infrastructure China is building in Cambodia and its implications for Indian interests in the region.
Topic:
Security, Military Strategy, Military Affairs, and Navy
Political Geography:
China, Indonesia, India, Asia, Cambodia, and Southeast Asia

775. The Prospects for Sino-Indian Relations During Modi’s Second Term

Author:
Sudha Ramachandran
Publication Date:
07-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
China Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
On May 30, Narendra Modi was sworn in for a second term as India’s Prime Minister. Conspicuous by their absence at the inauguration ceremony were Imran Khan, the Prime Minister of Pakistan; Lobsang Sangay, President of the Central Tibetan Authority (CTA), more commonly known as the Tibetan government-in-exile; and Tien Chung-Kwang, Taiwan’s trade representative to India. While Khan was not invited on account of the serious deterioration in India-Pakistan relations since early this year, the absence of Sangay and Tien can be attributed to the Modi government adopting a more cautious approach to China in its second term. Modi’s administration seems keen to avoid needling the People’s Republic of China (PRC), especially at a time when Sino-Indian relations are improving (Deccan Herald, May 29). This caution on the part of India notwithstanding, Sino-Indian relations during Modi’s second term (scheduled to run through May 2024) are unlikely to be tension-free.
Topic:
Security, Regional Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:
China, India, Asia, and Tibet

776. The Belt and Road Initiative Still Afloat in South Asia

Author:
Sudha Ramachandran
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
China Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
South Asian governments are becoming increasingly discontent with Belt and Road Initiative projects. In August, Pakistan’s new government expressed interest in reviewing the CPEC contracts that they perceive to be over-priced, unnecessary, or excessively in the favor of PRC companies (Dawn, September 11). Similar sentiments have been expressed by the new Maldivian government, which is reviewing BRI contracts signed during the rule of former President Abdulla Yameen (Economic Times, November 26). Such actions raise questions as to whether South Asian states might scale down or even cancel BRI projects.
Topic:
Development, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, Infrastructure, and Soft Power
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, China, South Asia, India, Sri Lanka, Bhutan, and Maldives

777. Saving Secularism in India

Author:
Mani Shankar Aiyar and Kamran King
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
Elected three times to the Lok Sabha, the lower house of the Indian Parliament, and nominated by the President to Rajya Sabha, the upper house, for a further six years, Aiyar has served for 21 years in the Indian Parliament, been conferred the Outstanding Parliamentarian Award (2006), and been a Cabinet Minister for five years (2004-09). He has authored seven books, including Confession of a Secular Fundamentalist, and edited the three volumes of Rajiv Gandhi’s India.
Topic:
Politics, Religion, Domestic Politics, and Secularism
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

778. Kashmir: A Case for Self-Determination

Author:
Hafsa Kanjwal
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
On 5 August 2019, the Indian government unilaterally changed the legal status of the state of Jammu and Kashmir, undermining its own constitutional process and completely annexing a territory that remains disputed in the in- ternational arena. In a statement to the Indian parliament, the Indian Home Minister announced the abrogation of Kashmir’s special status enshrined in Article 370 of the Indian constitution, as well as the bifurcation of the state into two Union Territories to be directly governed by the central government. Since then, the government has placed Indian-occupied Kashmir on lockdown.1 Despite restrictions on the movement of reporters and human rights observers and a clampdown on communication infrastructure (including the internet and some phone services), there have been reports of widespread human rights abuses including extrajudicial detentions (including of minors), torture, sexual violence, and lack of access to basic medical and healthcare services.2 The BJP-led government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi has justified its actions by claiming that Kashmir’s development and progress was stunted under Article 370, a provision in the Indian constitution that gave the state some autonomy. Moreover, the government asserted that the region needed to be fully integrated into the Indian state in order to prosper. It also argued that this move would curb what it deems “terrorism,” a long-standing movement for political self-determination in Kashmir.3
Topic:
Human Rights, Territorial Disputes, Conflict, and Self-Determination
Political Geography:
South Asia, India, Kashmir, and Jammu and Kashmir

779. A Dialogue of Rivers

Author:
Kishalay Bhattacharjee and Shiv Visvanathan
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
India International Centre (IIC)
Abstract:
Welcome to a series of talks and dialogues that hopes to challenge the imagination of the ‘mainstream’. The river conversation is critical in re-evaluating histories, reconnecting civilisations, cultures and peoples, ideas and regions and opening streams of thought for a future with exciting possibilities. However, why do we need to talk about rivers? Titash Ekti Nadir Naam is a very well-known film by Ritwik Ghatak, but it is also a book written by Adwaita Mallabarman, where he writes, ‘the bosom of Bengal is draped with rivers and their tributaries, twisted and intertwined, like tangled locks streaked with white foamy waves’, and he describes the river like a human being. There are an estimated 71 riverine novels written in Bengal. Yet, very few pieces of this literature have come from fishermen, boatmen or even floodplains farmers themselves. Padma Nadir Majhi published in 1934, is top-quality riverine writing written by Manik Bandopadhyay. However, as Adwaita Mallabarman said that for all the great artistry, the author of Padma Nadir Majhi came from an educated Brahmin family, and knew of the life of the fisherfolk only from the margins. It reflected the Brahmin son’s romantic view. Titash… is probably the only example of a riverine novel written by a fisherman’s son. Today’s discussion is an attempt to develop a river imagination and let the river speak!
Topic:
History, Culture, Civilization, and Rivers
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

780. A Dialogue of Rivers: The River & I

Author:
Kishalay Bhattacharjee, Parineeta Dandekar, and Parineeta Roy
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
India International Centre (IIC)
Abstract:
How many of us have read river stories? Or river poems? How many of us have known a river? Most of us have crossed a river on a bridge, or may have taken a boat or a ferry, but I’m not sure how many of us have actually touched the river or felt the river. The river is not just cusecs of water that ecologists love to define. The river has its own rhythm. To be able to bring back rivers, to be able to bring back rivers to life, perhaps we need to understand its rhythm. We need to understand rivers as a body interconnected with ourselves. River Dialogues is an attempt to have a free flowing conversation, as free flowing as a river should be and can be without dams coming in between, and try and re-imagine or possibly imagine for most of us who have not felt the river, seen the river, or imagined the river in a very long time. Joining me today are Sumana Roy, and Parineeta Dandekar. Parineeta is a river researcher based in the US. She’s an ecologist who finds herself moving towards understanding rivers and its ‘Bhav-taal’. Sumana Roy is a poet, writer and a teacher who has given us some of the most lyrical insights into our forgotten lives. Her first book, How I Became a Tree is a ‘love song on plants and trees’ and introduces the idea of ‘plant humanities’ and how to live with ‘tree time’. She is now working on water/rivers. The idea of having these two persons talk about the river is about gaining perspectives on the river. In earlier episodes we travelled down Sahibi, the dead river of Delhi, Narmada, Adyar, Teesta, Tsangpo, Siang, Brahmaputra, Jamuna, Meghna, Padma, Ganga and the Yamuna.
Topic:
Climate Change, Water, Culture, Ecology, and Rivers
Political Geography:
South Asia and India