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1621. India's Future: It's About Jobs

Author:
Geoffrey N. Keim and Beth Anne Wilson
Publication Date:
11-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
Projections of sustained strong growth in India depend importantly on the utilization of the huge increase in India's working-age population projected over the next two decades. To date, however, India's economic growth has been concentrated in high-skill and capital-intensive sectors, and has not generated strong employment growth. In this paper, we highlight the tension between India's performance in output and employment, describe the characteristics of India's demographic dividend, and discuss impediments to India's shift away from agriculture.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Markets
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

1622. A Changing Paradigm of U.S.-East Asian Relations: Strategic and Economic Perspectives

Author:
Terence Roehrig
Publication Date:
03-2007
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:
International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:
There is little doubt that portions of the strategic and economic paradigm in East Asia and for U.S.-East Asia relations have in general been changing in dramatic ways for the past ten to fifteen years. Several contributing factors are well known: China's economic rise along with the potential strategic and political role it is likely to play in the future; the possibility of a more assertive Japan that may revise its constitution in an effort to become a “normal” country; and South Korea, in possession of greater economic, military and political power accompanied by the confidence to be a more significant player in the region. Moreover, even the notion of “East Asia” may be less and less relevant as economic integration is no longer bound by old geographic delineations, particularly with the region's growing economic and political ties with Southeast Asia and India, ties that are breaking down some of these regional distinctions. Finally, the United States is facing a more confident and multipolar Asia that is organizing to play a greater role in controlling its future and increasingly will require a different approach than in the past.
Political Geography:
United States, India, East Asia, Asia, Angola, and Southeast Asia

1623. Regionalism in South Asian Diplomacy

Author:
John Gooneratne, Mavara Inayat, Jamshed Ayaz Khan, Swaran Singh, and Alyson J. K. Bailes
Publication Date:
02-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
Abstract:
In any survey of present-day regional cooperation, South Asia is liable to be cited as one of the problem cases. The dominant strategic feature of the region is the tension and rivalry between India and Pakistan, two powers that have more than once gone to war or to the verge of war and that now have nuclear weapons. Unlike the East–West confrontation of cold war times, this confrontation has not (yet) led to more than a few fragmentary elements of a larger structure of confidence building and conflict avoidance. Even this major challenge is only one of the difficulties in the way of a non-zero-sum multilateral security order for the region. The discrepancy of size and power between India, a nation of over 1 billion people, and all its neighbours leads to natural concerns among the latter about India's dominance in the region and potential interference in their affairs. At different times this has been a significant strand in the policy thinking of states such as Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri Lanka and has led them to seek security assistance first and foremost from outside South Asia when they need it.
Topic:
International Relations, International Cooperation, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Bangladesh, South Asia, India, Sri Lanka, and Nepal

1624. Kashmir: A Problem in Search of a Solution

Author:
Shahid Javed Burki
Publication Date:
03-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The ongoing territorial dispute between India and Pakistan over the status of the contested areas of Jammu and Kashmir (henceforth Kashmir) is well known and well documented. This study acknowledges that any resolution of this dispute may be many years in the making. Thus, rather than proposing solutions to the territorial conflict, the study explores the utility of forging enhanced economic opportunities for the people of the region and argues that doing so may prepare the ground for the eventual resolution of the dispute. Many of the proposals advanced here will require all the parties to the dispute—India, Pakistan, and the people of the divided state of Kashmir—to agree on a suite of programs that would bring about positive economic change from which there cannot be any turning back. I believe that such positive change would create vested interests and beneficiaries that would resist any retrenchment from continued progress.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and International Relations
Political Geography:
Pakistan, India, and Kashmir

1625. Improving Agricultural Efficiency Amongst Groundwater Users: The Case of Sugarcane in North India *

Author:
Gauri Khanna
Publication Date:
05-2007
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
Institution:
School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
Abstract:
This paper estimates inequities in production and income for different categories of water users in the context of a rapidly depleting resource by estimating technical inefficiency using frontier techniques. The research is based on primary survey data from a North Indian village that shares characteristics commonly observed in other groundwater-dependant agricultural areas. Estimated technical efficiency scores are highest on plots where water is sourced from a privately owned tubewell, followed by plots serviced by partnered tubewells and lowest on plots where water is bought. Income gains from improved efficiency follow the reverse patterns with the largest gains of Rupees (Rs) 1082 per bigha1 estimated for buyers’ plots and Rs. 649 per bigha for plots with their own tubewell with the average of Rs. 867 for all plots. A policy package of improved power, joint ownership of tubewells, farmer training and better water transportation systems are prescribed as policy measures to alleviate the differences amongst water users.
Topic:
Natural Resources, Water, Inequality, and Income
Political Geography:
India and North Africa

1626. Brookings Foreign Policy Studies Energy Security Series: India

Author:
Tanvi Madan
Publication Date:
11-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
Growth demands energy. It is no wonder that India — with an economy expected to grow at over 5 percent a year for the next twenty-five years — has developed a ravenous appetite for energy. India is the world's fifth largest consumer of energy, and by 2030 it is expected to become the third largest, overtaking Japan and Russia.
Topic:
Security, Development, and Energy Policy
Political Geography:
Russia, Japan, India, and Asia

1627. A Realist Case for Conditioning the U.S.-India Nuclear Deal

Author:
George Perkovich
Publication Date:
05-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The debate over the nuclear deal negotiated by the Bush Administration and the government of India is too narrow. This is ironic in as much as the best argument for the deal is that it advances big strategic goals. Some administration officials admit privately that the purported nonproliferation benefits of the deal are thinner than the paper it's not yet written on, and they hope to convince Congress that even if there are no nonproliferation gains, the grand strategic benefits still make the deal worth supporting. Strangely, nevertheless, the debate focuses on the nonproliferation aspects of the deal and leaves larger strategic questions relatively unexamined.
Topic:
International Relations, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Government
Political Geography:
India and Asia

1628. India, Pakistan and Kashmir: Stabilising a Cold Peace?

Publication Date:
06-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
When the third round of the normalisation talks concludes in July 2006, India and Pakistan will be no closer than when they began the process in February 2004 to resolving differences, including over Kashmir. What they call their "composite dialogue" has helped reduce tensions and prevent a return to the climate of 2001-2002, when they were on the verge of all-out war, but progress has been limited to peripheral issues. India's prime minister, Dr Manmohan Singh, and Pakistan's president, General Pervez Musharraf, have reiterated commitments to sustain the dialogue. It is unrealistic, however, to expect radical change. International, particularly U.S. support for the process will likely dissuade either side from pulling out but asymmetry of interests and goals militates against a major breakthrough. The need is to concentrate on maintaining a cold peace until a long process can produce an atmosphere in which the support of elected governments in both states might realistically bring a Kashmir solution.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Politics
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Middle East, India, and Kashmir

1629. Nepal's Crisis: Mobilising International Influence

Publication Date:
04-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Pro-democracy demonstrations and a general strike across Nepal in recent weeks mark a decisive shift in the country's political equations and probably signal the approaching end of King Gyanendra's direct rule. A successful popular movement could advance the search for peace but will depend on strong political party leadership in dealing with the Maoists; a messy transition would bring its own risks. Although domestic events will determine the speed and direction of political change, international players should us e their influence to establish practical plans to help stabilise the situation and build a more lasting foundation for peace. This briefing argues for the early formation of a Contact Group (consisting of India, the U.S. and UK, working with the UN) and a complementary Peace Support Group (other key donors and international financial institutions) to form a common front on strategy and tactics to maximise international influence in assisting Nepal's escape from its worsening conflict.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democratization, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, United Kingdom, India, Asia, Nepal, and United Nations

1630. Roaring tiger or lumbering elephant?

Author:
Mark P Thirlwell
Publication Date:
09-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
In the past, there has been plenty of scepticism about India's economic prospects: for many, Charles De Gaulle's aphorism regarding Brazil, that it was a country with enormous potential, and always would be, seemed to apply equally well to the South Asian economy. While the 'tiger' economies of East Asia were enjoying economic take-off on the back of investment- and export-led growth, the lumbering Indian elephant seemed set to be a perpetual also-ran in the growth stakes. Yet following a series of reform efforts, first tentatively in the 1980s, and then with much more conviction in the 1990s, the Indian economic model has been transformed, and so too India's growth prospects. High profile successes in the new economy sectors of information technology (IT) and business process outsourcing (BPO), along with faster economic growth, triggered a widespread rethink regarding India's economic prospects, and a wave of foreign portfolio investment flowed into Indian markets. Perhaps India was set to be a tiger after all.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
South Asia, India, East Asia, Asia, and Brazil